An environmental-economic measure of sustainable development

A central issue in the study of sustainable development is the interplay of growth and sacrifice in a dynamic economy. This paper investigates the relationship among current consumption, sacrifice and sustainability improvement in a general context and in two canonical, stylized economies. We argue that the maximin value of utility measures what is sustainable and provides the limit to growth. Maximin value is interpreted as a dynamic environmental-economic carrying capacity and current utility as an environmental-economic footprint. The time derivative of maximin value is interpreted as net investment in sustainability improvement. It is called durable savings to distinguish it from genuine savings, usually computed with discounted-utilitarian prices.     

Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion: A Hartwick Rule Counterfactual

How much produced capital would resource-abundant countries have today if they had actually followed the Hartwick Rule (invest resource rents in other assets) over the last 30 years? We employ time series data on investment and rents on exhaustible resource extraction for 70 countries to answer this question. The results are striking: Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, and Gabon would all have as much produced capital as South Korea, while Nigeria would have five times its current level. A specific rule for sustainability – maintain positive constant genuine investment – is shown to lead to unbounded consumption.     

Conditions for Sustainable Optimal Economic Development

This paper shows that, for dynamic optimizing economies with different types of natural resource, environmental, and human‐made capital stocks, a necessary and sufficient condition for permanently sustaining an optimal utility/consumption level is the stationarity of the current‐value Hamiltonian. For economies whose development is not exogenously and directly affected by time (i.e., time‐autonomous economies), this stationarity condition generalizes Dixit et al.’s (1980 ) “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” rule of sustain‐ability, which in turn generalizes Solow‐Hartwick’s sustainability rule. For non‐autonomous economies, the stationarity condition is not generally fulfilled, and the current‐value Hamiltonian under (over) estimates the true welfare level by an amount equal to the discounted value of the net “pure time effect.” For the non‐autonomous case of a time‐dependent utility discount rate, a general condition on the discount rate function (of which the hyperbolic discount rate function is a special case) upholds the results obtained for autonomous cases. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies that promote both optimality and sustainability objectives.     

The interest elasticity of household savings: a structural approach with German micro data

This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as in the current and expected future consumer price levels on households’ consumption–savings decision. In a structural demand model applied to German consumption data, we use cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in prices and tax rates to construct individual after-tax interest rates and cluster-specific consumer prices. We find that the compensated own-price elasticities for savings as well as consumption are significantly negative, while the theoretical model implications of homogeneity and symmetry must be rejected. Importantly, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity of savings, in line with the literature, at around zero. Some heterogeneity in this elasticity is found along the savings and wealth distribution. We conclude that short-term policy-induced variation of net returns to savings is expected to have no significant effects on the level of compound savings.     

Progress along the path: evolving issues in the measurement of genuine saving

More than 10 years since a practical linkage between sustainable development and a measure of national wealth—expanded to include natural and environmental resources—was first posited, the empirical estimation of adjusted net savings, dubbed ‘genuine’ saving, has evolved considerably. In this paper we take stock of both progress achieved and the challenges that remain. We begin by recalling the key points made in Pearce and Atkinson (1993, Ecol Econ 8, 103), which presented the first cross-country estimates of savings rates adjusted to reflect depletion and degradation of the environment. We then briefly summarise the evolution of the theoretical argument linking savings and sustainability. However, the main focus of this paper is an aspect that concerned David Pearce greatly, namely the evolution of the measurement of genuine savings. We identify and consider the empirical evidence with regard to two particular measurement issues: the valuation of exhaustible resources and environmental degradation. Common to the both issues are concerns about measuring changes in national wealth in real world economies.      

Challenges of responding to sustainability with implications for affordable housing

Sustainability is one of the most contested ideologies of our time because everyone acknowledges that it must occur but no one can agree on what needs to change in response. This is unsurprising, because objecting to the goal of sustainability is like objecting to other inherently good goals like peace or freedom. Responses to sustainability exist on a long continuum, with some interpreting sustainability to mean conservation-at-all-costs and reduced economic growth, while others suggest that the market will ensure sustainable outcomes eventually result. Further, sustainability can be easily manipulated to justify predetermined outcomes. There are, indeed, a multitude of conceptual and pragmatic challenges to operating on sustainability, particularly when the scale shifts from a global goal to local action. Using the application of sustainability to affordable housing in Australia as a case study, this article argues that rather than limiting sustainable outcomes, the existence of the sustainability debate which focuses on the many challenges is a positive indicator that sustainability may be attainable.     

Challenges of responding to sustainability with implications for affordable housing

Sustainability is one of the most contested ideologies of our time because everyone acknowledges that it must occur but no one can agree on what needs to change in response. This is unsurprising, because objecting to the goal of sustainability is like objecting to other inherently good goals like peace or freedom. Responses to sustainability exist on a long continuum, with some interpreting sustainability to mean conservation-at-all-costs and reduced economic growth, while others suggest that the market will ensure sustainable outcomes eventually result. Further, sustainability can be easily manipulated to justify predetermined outcomes. There are, indeed, a multitude of conceptual and pragmatic challenges to operating on sustainability, particularly when the scale shifts from a global goal to local action. Using the application of sustainability to affordable housing in Australia as a case study, this article argues that rather than limiting sustainable outcomes, the existence of the sustainability debate which focuses on the many challenges is a positive indicator that sustainability may be attainable.     

GENUINE SAVING AND POSITIONAL EXTERNALITIES

Much evidence suggests that people are concerned with their relative consumption. Yet, positional externalities have so far been ignored in savings‐based indicators of sustainable development. This article examines the implications of relative consumption concerns for measures of sustainable development by deriving analogues to genuine saving when people are concerned with their relative consumption. Unless the positional externalities have been internalized, an indicator of such externalities must be added to genuine saving to arrive at the proper measure of welfare change. We also show how relative consumption concerns affect the way public investment ought to be reflected in genuine saving.     

Equity and economic growth,a theoretical and empirical study: MENA zone

In macroeconomic literature, it is widely held that persuasion of economic growth and more equitable distribution of income (wealth) is not possible at the same time. The basic reason put forward is that to aim for more equitable distribution will reduce total savings in short and medium terms by reducing the weighted average of propensities to save of the different strata of the society. Therefore, the main objective for countries in transitional period is to have a higher economic growth rather than a fairer distribution of income. Recent developments on economic growth studies from a longer perspective and with sustainability criterion has put above idea in real jeopardy. It is shown that by paying more attention to justifiable distribution especially among different generations will promote a higher genuine savings which results in a higher rate of steady economic growth. In this research we use dynamic optimization approach (optimal control) for studying the mechanics of this regularity and test the proposition for selected MENA zone countries and then compare with some developed countries. Our ultimate goal is suggesting a fair fiscal policy to have a high economic growth compatible with a fairer distribution of wealth and income. It seems that any attempt to provide a more equitable condition, will be eventually reached to a higher capital formation, higher saving and higher output per capita in MENA region compared with selected developed countries.     

Fishery externalities and biodiversity: Trade-offs between the viability of shrimp trawling and the conservation of Frigatebirds in French Guiana

Sustainable management of natural resources, and in particular fisheries, must take into account several conflicting objectives. This is the case in the French Guiana shrimp fishery for which profitability objectives imply a reduction in the fishing activity. On the one hand, this fishery has negative externalities on marine biodiversity due to discards. On the other hand, this fishery has positive externalities on the economy of the local community and interestingly enough on a protected seabird species in the area (the Frigatebird that feeds on discards). In this paper, we examine the viability of that system considering two sustainability objectives: an economic objective in terms of the profitability of the fishing activity, and a conservation objective in terms of the Frigatebird population. For that purpose, we have developed a dynamic model of that bioeconomic system and study here the trade-offs between the two conflicting objectives. It provides a means to quantify the necessary give and takes involving the economic and ecological objectives that would ensure a viable management solution. Our study confirms the relevance of the viability approach to address natural resource management issues, which should lead to the development of new tools for the arbitration of conflicting sustainability objectives. In particular, such tools could be used as a quantitative basis for cost–benefit analysis taking into account environmental externalities.     

Fishery externalities and biodiversity: Trade-offs between the viability of shrimp trawling and the conservation of Frigatebirds in French Guiana

Sustainable management of natural resources, and in particular fisheries, must take into account several conflicting objectives. This is the case in the French Guiana shrimp fishery for which profitability objectives imply a reduction in the fishing activity. On the one hand, this fishery has negative externalities on marine biodiversity due to discards. On the other hand, this fishery has positive externalities on the economy of the local community and interestingly enough on a protected seabird species in the area (the Frigatebird that feeds on discards). In this paper, we examine the viability of that system considering two sustainability objectives: an economic objective in terms of the profitability of the fishing activity, and a conservation objective in terms of the Frigatebird population. For that purpose, we have developed a dynamic model of that bioeconomic system and study here the trade-offs between the two conflicting objectives. It provides a means to quantify the necessary give and takes involving the economic and ecological objectives that would ensure a viable management solution. Our study confirms the relevance of the viability approach to address natural resource management issues, which should lead to the development of new tools for the arbitration of conflicting sustainability objectives. In particular, such tools could be used as a quantitative basis for cost–benefit analysis taking into account environmental externalities.     

Does foreign aid really raise per capita income? A time series perspective

Abstract. We analyze the relationship between per capita income and foreign aid. We employ annual data and five‐year averages and carefully examine the time‐series properties of the data. Panel estimations with dynamic feasible generalized least‐squares (DFGLS) show that aid generally has an insignificant or minute negative significant impact on per capita income (particularly in highly aid‐dependent countries). This holds true for countries with different levels of human development and income, as well as for different regions. We also find that aid has a small positive impact on investment, but a significant negative impact on domestic savings (crowding out) and the real exchange rate (appreciation). JEL classification: F35, O11, C23, C51     

Is the model “loans‐plus‐savings” better for microfinance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia? A propensity score matching comparison

Microfinance institutions are gradually evolving into multiservice organizations offering not only loans but also savings, and other financial and nonfinancial services. We contribute to the literature aimed at identifying how combining credit with savings affects outreach and sustainability in microfinance institutions (MFIs). We apply the propensity score matching method as well as its augmented dose–response version to compare the performance of loans‐plus‐savings MFIs with that of lending‐only in a sample of 710 observations from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Owing to our unique capital structure data, we control for the use of subsidized capital, which related work ignores while existing evidence points to tradeoffs between subsidies and savings. We find that financial performance and breadth of outreach are positively associated with savings mobilization, while the evidence on depth of outreach points to a possible mission drift.     

Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long‐Run: Lessons from Germany

We construct long‐run sustainability indicators based on changes in Comprehensive Wealth – which we refer to as Genuine Savings (GS) – for Germany over the period 1850–2000. We find that German sustainability indicators are positive for the most part, although they are negative during and after the two World Wars and also the Great Depression. We also test the relationship between these wealth changes and a number of measures of well‐being over the long‐run: changes in consumption as well as changes in average height and infant mortality rates. We find a positive relationship between GS and our well‐being indicators over different time horizons, however, the relationship breaks down during WWII. We also test if the GS/Comprehensive Wealth framework is able to cope with massive disinvestment at the end of the Second World War due to war‐related destructions and dismantlement. We find that negative rates of GS were by and large avoided due to the accumulation of technology and growth‐friendly institutions. We demonstrate the importance of broader measures of capital, including measures of technological progress, and its role in the process of economic development; and the limits of conventional measures of investment to understand why future German consumption did not collapse.     

Sustainable per capita consumption under population growth

We establish two investment rules for maximal constant per capita consumption under exogenous population growth, one in terms of total capital stocks and the other in terms of per capita capital stocks. Both rules show the importance of the development of future population growth. The investment rules are illustrated in the one-sector model of capital accumulation, the DHSS model of capital accumulation and resource depletion, and the Stollery–d’Autume–Schubert model in which natural capital provides amenities. Application to recent empirical evidence indicates that actual genuine savings might be insufficient to sustain per capita consumption, when future population growth is combined with a large per capita consumption-wage gap.     

沉睡知识对企业技术创新持续性的影响——一个有调节的中介作用模型

沉睡知识是知识经济时代企业技术持续创新的重要途径。为打开不同类型沉睡知识与技术创新持续性关系的“黑箱”,基于知识属性理论,将沉睡知识划分为显性沉睡知识和隐性沉睡知识两个维度,并引入资源拼凑作为中介变量、知识治理机制作为调节变量,构建一个有调节的中介作用模型,提出沉睡知识与技术创新持续性间关系假设,基于调查问卷数据进行实证研究。结果表明：显性沉睡知识和隐性沉睡知识均负向影响技术创新持续性;资源拼凑在两类沉睡知识与技术创新持续性间起部分中介作用;知识治理机制负向调节隐性沉睡知识与技术创新持续性间的关系,同时倒U型调节资源拼凑在两类沉睡知识与技术创新持续性间的中介效应强度。     

居民储蓄变动与经济增长及银行业之间关系研究

针对当前各界给予储蓄增长率持续降低的关注,本文认为,储蓄的增长本身与经济增长率之间存在并不十分确定的正向促进关系,其取决于经济所处的发展阶段以及银行的信用创造能力。在当前普遍强调储蓄下降对经济增长所起的负面作用情况下,对银行业的健康发展确实具有至关重要的作用,具体涉及到兑付风险、减少收入以及对股份制银行和上市银行的资本金影响。本文在实证检验了国内储蓄率变动的状况、原因之后,尝试从金融产品和国家税收政策等方面提出促进储蓄的对策建议。     

Business Cycles, the Exchange Rate, and Demand for Antidumping Protection in Mexico

Antidumping actions in the US and EU are known to be linked to macroeconomic conditions. In part, this is because positive injury findings may be easier to make in a downturn, increasing the chance of success for complainants. We explore the evidence for Mexico, one of the main “new” antidumping regimes. Injury determination is also critical in Mexico’s antidumping policy, as a majority of unsuccessful complaints have been rejected because of negative injury findings rather than negative findings of dumping. Working with data from 1987 to 2000, we provide evidence for a relationship between macroeconomic factors and antidumping complaints, including current account and exchange rate movements, and both local and global general macroeconomic conditions.     

Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: theory,and estimates for Germany,Italy, UK and USA

This study uses new theories of capital accumulation and fertility in a comparative framework to test predictions with time-series data for Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US. The exogenous-fertility model is based on models of Barro and Becker. The endogenous-fertility models are based on models of Veall and Nishimura and Zhang. It is assumed that life cycle periods are youth, middle age, and old age. Several theoretical frameworks are tested with endogenous and exogenous fertility and altruism and nonaltruism. Data are obtained during 1950-90. Dependent variables are the total lifetime fertility rate and real per capita household savings. Explanatory variables include social security, the real social security deficit per capita, the real rate of interest, the real per capita disposable income, the average male real wage rate, the average female real wage rate, and the real child benefit rate. The explanatory variables are individually graphed to show differences by country over time. Findings suggest that fertility is endogenous in a nonaltruistic model. The only model not rejected by the data was the model in which fertility and intergenerational transfers were explained by nonaltruistic concerns. Fertility was positively affected by the male wage rate in all countries. Fertility was negatively affected by the female wage rate in all countries. Disposable income was insignificant in the UK and Germany and positive and significant in Italy and the US. The interest rate was significant in only 1 model. Child benefits had a positive and significant effect on fertility in the UK. In savings models, disposable income was significant and positive, and child benefits and wage rates were insignificant. Social security coverage had a negative effect on fertility and a positive effect on savings, except in Germany. Findings indicate that saving and fertility are jointly determined.     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.