人民币国际化进程中不同市场汇率关联性的实证研究——基于CNY、CNH和NDF市场的数据

本文检验了人民币在岸市场(CNY)即期汇率、香港人民币离岸市场(CNH)即期汇率和海外人民币无本金交割市场(NDF)远期汇率之间的交互关系。通过DCC-MVGARCH模型研究CNY、CNH、NDF三个市场汇率之间的动态相关关系,不仅考虑了三个市场汇率波动性的条件异方差性,还考虑了该波动性的相关性。通过计算三个市场的方差方程,得到衡量不同市场波动溢出效应的时变相关系数。研究结果表明,三个市场相关程度较强,信息传递较快;2007年前人民币在岸市场即期汇率与离岸市场即期汇率波动性关系不强,2007年后波动性影响显著,说明人民币国际化影响在加强。     

基层银行外汇衍生品业务实需管理研究

目前,银行对客户办理衍生产品业务仍坚持实需交易原则。2018年以来人民币汇率的宽幅双向震荡波动,给涉外企业带来了汇率风险管理的严峻挑战,外汇衍生品的使用给大部分企业减少了汇率波动损失。但银行衍生品交易在有效落实“实需原则”方面仍欠佳。通过对唐山市辖内银行外汇衍生品市场发展现状的研究,发现了从实需的视角存在着各方对外汇衍生品交易“实虚原则”理解不一致等问题,并且针对发现的问题提出了进一步明确“实需”内涵,适当扩展“实需”内涵,提升实需原则适用性等政策建议。     

在岸人民币市场与香港离岸人民币市场联动关系的实证研究

作为国际金融中心,香港为内地的发展提供了举足轻重的金融服务。近年来,我国政府力推人民币国际化,具有完备金融市场的香港成为构建离岸人民币中心、促进人民币国际化进程的排头兵。香港已经建成了规模庞大的离岸人民币市场,这一市场的波动和走势对在岸人民币市场的干扰和影响不可轻视,关乎在岸人民币市场的稳定和国家金融安全。文章分析了在岸人民币市场即期汇率、远期汇率与香港离岸人民币市场即期汇率、远期汇率之间的关系,发现两两之间并不总是存在引导关系。     

离岸与在岸人民币汇率的联动性效应研究——中间价报价机制改革前后

本文根据此次中间价报价机制改革前后的数据,对人民币即期CNY市场,香港离岸人民币CNH市场与离岸的无本金交割人民币远期NDF市场之间相互存在的联动性效应进行了实证分析.结果发现:在改革之前主要是在岸市场对离岸市场实现价格的信息传导,在岸汇率引导着离岸汇率,而在离岸市场上CNH市场逐渐起到了替代NDF市场的作用;改革之后则发现CNY、CNH、NDF三者的汇率存在着高度相关性,三者的短期汇率互相产生了信息的双向传递性,人民币汇率的价格发现机制不断得到改善.     

中国外汇管理体制改革进程中人民币远期定价权研究

在分析人民币无本金交割远期汇率、平价汇率与在岸远期汇率的关系后发现,虽然利率平价机制在远期汇率决定中发挥的作用已经显现,但是离岸的人民币无本金交割远期(NDF)市场依然削弱着中国的人民币远期汇率的定价能力。为增强人民币远期定价权,中国需要确立利率市场化改革为基础、外汇管理体制改革为核心,金融体系创新为依托的三位一体思路,同时还应加快社会经济体制的综合改革。     

离岸NDF市场对我国外汇市场影响的实证研究

人民币汇率对我国的经济发展有着重要的影响,而汇率的影响因素也受到人们的普遍关注。过去的研究通常更关注国内外基本面的因素,近年来人民币离岸无本金交割远期外汇(Non-deliverable Forward-NDF)市场日趋活跃,研究离岸NDF汇率对我国汇率形成的影响就尤为重要。本文通过对2002年至2014年人民币即期汇率与NDF汇率进行单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,研究了即期汇率与NDF汇率的关系。检验结果发现:即期汇率引导1个月期NDF汇率,1个月期NDF汇率引导即期汇率;即期汇率不引导1年期NDF汇率,1年期NDF汇率引导即期汇率。     

人民币NDF对境内人民币即期汇率的影响

本文以境外人民币NDF(无本金交割远期)市场和境内人民币即期市场为研究对象,选取2010年8月至2013年11月间1个月、3个月、6个月及1年期人民币NDF汇率和境内即期汇率作为样本数据,通过Granger因果检验分析了两个市场之间的价格引导关系。实证结果表明,境外人民币NDF(无本金交割远期)市场不存在对境内人民币即期市场的价格引导,而境内即期汇率却是人民币NDF汇率变动的先导变量。     

人民币非交割远期交易探索

近年来跨国公司纷纷使用非交割远期(Non-deliverable Forzcards)交易来规避人民币汇率风险。人民币非交割远期交易是一种离岸形式的人民币远期交易。它不需要对人民币进行实际交割。而是通过以美元对合约汇率与实际汇率的差价进行交割来规避人民币汇率风险。人民币NDF交易不光对人民币汇率有着重要影响，同时它对我国的外汇远期市场发展也很有借鉴意义，我国应加强对它的研究。制定有效的应对措施。     

人民币汇率定价权的实证检验

一、问题的提出 过去十多年来,外汇市场波动加剧,激发了市场参与者规避汇率风险的需求。外汇远期市场为发达国家货币提供了较好的避险工具。然而,新兴市场和发展中国家由于外汇管制和市场参与限制的广泛存在,其外汇远期市场的发展较为落后,投资者规避汇率风险的需求不能得到满足,这就诞生了无本金交割远期（Non-deliverable Forwards,简称NDE）交易。     

基于二元Garch模型的人民币外汇远期与即期汇率波动溢出效应分析

外汇远期作为我国主要的外汇衍生品对我国外汇汇率有着重要的影响。外汇远期和即期价格的波动之间也很可能相互影响。本文运用二元Garch模型对2005年汇率改革以后的外汇远期与即期汇率之间的波动溢出效用进行实证分析,分析结果表明,我国的外汇远期汇率的波动对外汇即期汇率的波动影响不明显,尚未起到降低我国人民币外汇汇率风险的作用。     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.     

Political corruption and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between political corruption and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that local corruption increases firm acquisitiveness but decreases firm targetiveness. The levels of corruption in acquirer areas relate positively to the bid premiums and negatively to the likelihood of deal completion. Corruption motivates acquiring firms to use excess cash for payment, which mitigates the negative effect of corruption on acquirer shareholder value. The evidence indicates that acquisitions help acquiring firms convert cash into hard-to-extract assets and relocate assets from the high to low corruption areas, thereby shielding their liquid assets from expropriation by local officials.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.