What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?

Recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns. This has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour. This paper presents a review of this literature. A variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment, the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty. A general conclusion is that increased uncertainty, at both aggregate and disaggregate levels, leads to lower investment rates. This suggests that there is an irreversibility effect, under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the 'call option' to delay a commitment to investment. This effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertainty, under certain circumstances, increases the marginal profitability of capital. The methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings, and these are addressed in the paper. However, if such irreversibility effects are present, then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications. JEL Classification: D81, D92, E22     

Interpreting Currency Crises: How Much Do We Know?

ABSTRACT

The main objective of this paper is to understand the causes and symptoms of currency crises by reviewing the seminal literature and noting some of its significant features. The paper revises the so-called first- and second-generation models and accounts for six different features. Based on this revision and account, the paper suggests the need to view currency crises beyond the traditional line of thought. In effect, to comprehend the process, which may lead to the inconsistency of the exchange-rate-maintenance policies and result in a currency crash.     

What Do Cities Have to Do with Democracy?

The relationship between urbanization and democratization remains under‐theorized and under‐researched. Radical urban theory has undergone a veritable normative turn, registered in debates about the right to the city, spatial justice and the just city, while critical conceptualizations of neoliberalism present ‘democracy’ as the preferred remedy for injustice. However, these lines of thought remain reluctant to venture too far down the path of political philosophy. The relationship between urban politics and the dynamics of democratization remains under‐theorized as a result. It is argued that this relationship can be usefully understood by drawing on lessons from avowedly normative styles of political theorizing, specifically post‐Habermasian strands of critical theory. Taking this tradition seriously helps one to notice that discussions of urbanization, democracy, injustice and rights in geography, urban studies and related fields invoke an implicit but unthematized democratic norm, that of all‐affected interests. In contemporary critical theory, this norm is conceptualized as a worldly register of political demands. It is argued that the conceptual disaggregation of component values of democracy undertaken through the ‘spatial turn’ in recent critical theory reorients the analysis of the democratic potentials of urban politics around the investigation of the multiple forms of agency which urbanized processes perform in generating, recognizing and acting upon issues of shared concern.     

Ethical Awareness： Do We Need to Teach Accounting Ethics？ The Case of Bahrain

Based on the premise that ethics education leads to creation of the required （acceptable level of） ethical awareness, the general streamline of accounting ethics literature is strongly in favor of teaching adequate, efficient, and effective accounting ethics. This paper takes the position that this premise must be checked in an educational setting in which accounting ethics education lacks the characteristics of being adequate, efficient, and effective. Accordingly, a questionnaire with two parts was distributed to accounting students about to graduate from the University of Bahrain （UoB）. The first part is an exploratory investigation consisting of 21 variables/questions. The second part is an experimental investigation consisting of 13 hypothetical accounting cases representing various ethics violations. The general tendency by an accounting student based on the two parts indicates that he/she holds an acceptable level of ethical awareness, despite the fact that accounting education programs lack an adequate, efficient, and effective approach to teaching accounting ethics.     

Estimating Cost of Equity: Do You Need to Adjust for Foreign Exchange Risk?

Empirical reports of priced foreign exchange (FX) risk raise the question of whether managers should adjust their cost of equity estimates for FX risk. To study this question, we empirically compare the cost of equity estimates of several risk–return models, including some that have explicit FX risk premia and others that do not. We find that adjusting for FX risk makes little difference, on average, in the cost of equity estimates, even for small firms and firms with extreme FX exposure estimates.     

What do scientists know about inflation hedging?

In this article, we give an overview of the state of scientific knowledge on inflation hedging. Specifically, we distill the results of several decades of research analysing the relationship between major asset classes (common stocks, gold, fixed income securities, real estate) and inflation. Even though previous studies have brought forth important facts characterising the interplay of asset returns and inflation rates (e.g., time-dependency, asymmetry, outlier-sensitivity and a tendency towards long-term but limited short-term inflation protection), there is still no consensus on the subject because sample, data and methodology issues preclude strict comparison of most studies. Thus, from a synthesis of the insights gained from our review, we also outline possible directions for future research that may help to establish consensus among researchers.     

Do We Still Need Cities? Evidence on Rates of Innovation from Count Data Models of Metropolitan Statistical Area Patents

Evidence of the importance of urban agglomeration and the offsetting effects of congestion are provided in a number of studies of productivity and wages. Little attention has been paid to this evidence in the economic growth literature, where the recent focus is on technological change. We extend the idea of agglomeration and congestion effects to the area of innovation by empirically looking for a nonlinear link between population density and patent activity. A panel data set consisting of observations on 302 USA metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 10-year period from 1990 to 1999 is utilized. Following the patent and R&D literature, models that account for the discreet nature of the dependent variable are employed. Strong evidence is found that agglomeration and congestion are important in explaining the vast differences in patent rates across US cities. The most important reason cities continue to exist, given the dramatic drop in transportation costs for physical goods over the last century, is probably related to the forces of agglomeration as they apply to knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the empirical investigation proposed here is an important part of understanding the viability of urban areas in the future.     

What Can We Learn From Great Business Leaders?

There are many leadership lessons that can be extracted from the lives of great business leaders like John D. Rockefeller, Henry Ford, Alfred Sloan, Sam Walton, Jack Welch, A. G. Lafley, Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates. Although different in personality and style, these leaders showed talent at a very young age, persevered in achieving their goals, surrounded themselves with the best people they could, worked hard and with great discipline, had great confidence in themselves, and were creative and innovative in managing their businesses.     

What about the leader? What should the Hungarian Prime Minister do after he lied?

This article shows how text analysis is used to investigate the role leadership characteristics (in the sense of how to behave) play in the media before and after a political leader has taken care of an event that has shocked a substantial part of the population in his country. Here this is a lie by the Hungarian Prime Minister that became public in September 2006. It turns out that after the event took place the leader has to demonstrate vision and has to keep or gain trust from the people.     

Do interest rate options contain information about excess returns?

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time series of swap rates and interest rate option prices to estimate dynamic term structure models. The risk premiums that we estimate using option prices are better able to predict excess returns for long-term swaps over short-term swaps. Moreover, in contrast to the previous literature, the most successful models for predicting excess returns have risk factors with stochastic volatility. We also show that the stochastic volatility models we estimate using option prices match the failure of the expectations hypothesis.     

So,What Am I Supposed to Do? A Multilevel Examination of Role Clarity

Although prior research generally holds that role clarity is affected by both individual characteristics and organizational contexts, current conceptual or empirical models do not reflect the multilevel nature of these antecedents. A more complete understanding of how role clarity emanates from different organizational levels is necessary to help prevent poor job performance and other harmful consequences of ambiguous role expectations. To address this, I begin this research by investigating the effects of internal work locus of control, general self‐efficacy, and leader–member exchange on role clarity. With respect to the cross‐level effects, I focus on the roles of a manager's control style and the organization's strategy‐making pattern. Analyses of a multi‐industry, multilevel dataset collected from 724 employees and 124 managers in 25 organizations in Finland suggest that all of the individual‐level independent variables and a deliberate strategy‐making pattern improve role clarity. However, a deliberate strategy‐making pattern negatively moderates the relationship between general self‐efficacy and role clarity. Finally, even though an outcome‐based control system causes role ambiguity among employees in most functional areas, it may be an effective driver of role clarity among employees in sales jobs.     

The motherhood wage gap: What about job amenities?

Women with children tend to earn lower hourly wages than women without children — a shortfall known as the ‘motherhood wage gap’. While many studies provide evidence for this empirical fact and explore several hypotheses about its causes, the impact of motherhood on job dimensions other than wages has scarcely been investigated. In order to assess changes in women's jobs around motherhood, I use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and employ a first difference analysis. The results reveal that women when having children accommodate at their original employer primarily through adjustments in working hours. Yet, when changing the employer women adjust their jobs in several dimensions, such as different aspects of the work schedule (working hours, work at night or according to a flexible schedule) as well as the level of stress. Further analysis provides some limited support for the motherhood wage gap being explained by adjustments in the work conditions.