Technological Change and Population Growth

What is the relationship between the rate of population growth and the rate of technological change? To answer this question, I discuss a model where increasing returns generate long-run growth but where the scale effect is absent. More precisely, the model predicts that steady-state productivity growth does not depend on population size because an increase in population size leads to entry. The resulting crowding-in effect generates dispersion of R&;D resources across firms and offsets the positive effect of the scale of the economy on the returns to R&;D. Changes in population size have only transitory effects on productivity growth. This desirable property allows me to introduce population growth in the model and study the effects of demographic shocks. The predicted patterns of growth, entry, and change in industrial structure match the experience of several industrialized countries. In addition, they match several of the empirical observations cited as evidence against standard models of endogenous technological change.     

Battle royal in biotechnology: R&D vs. product vs. process innovations

Companies regard innovation as a central element of their business. However, as not all innovation types are the same, the central question is: should their announcements bring about the same effect on performance? This article analyses potential differences in firm value derived from the innovation-type announcements ‘R&;D’, ‘product’, and ‘process’, made by intensive news-generating firms such as biotech companies. The empirical application shows a significantly positive reaction to innovation announcements, with the prospect of future innovation (‘R&;D’ investment announcements) having greater impact on firm value than ‘product’ and ‘process’ innovations. Firm experience also acts as a moderator in this innovation–performance relationship, which is particularly relevant for entrepreneurs who need to develop and send credible signals indicating the value of the firm's intangible assets to the market.     

The role of spillovers in research and development expenditure in Australian industries

Using administrative data from firms in Australia that conduct research and development (R&;D), we examine how R&;D activity of other firms and public institutions affect a firm's own R&;D expenditure. We distinguish between the impact of peers, suppliers and clients. We examine whether geographical proximity and industrial clustering affect R&;D spillovers. Overall, we detect positive effects on R&;D expenditure from spillovers from peers and clients to firms that are nearby; within 25 or 50?km. R&;D expenditure by academia, unlike by government bodies, has a positive influence on a firm's own R&;D expenditure within state boundaries. We fail to find any significant role for industrial clusters in augmenting spillover effects.     

INTER AND INTRA FIRM DIFFUSION OF ICT IN THE UNITED KINGDOM (UK) AND SWITZERLAND (CH) AN INTERNATIONALLY COMPARATIVE STUDY BASED ON FIRM-LEVEL DATA

This paper examines the effect of participation in government-sponsored R&;D consortia on the R&;D productivity of firms in the case of robot technology in Japan. We attempt to provide a new empirical analysis and discussions on the issue of government project evaluation by investigating the impact of the evolution of government programs, and to compare government-sponsored R&;D consortia with collaborative R&;D among firms. Using indicators of the quality of patents, which enables us to provide an estimation of quality-adjusted research productivity, we find that participation in government programs has a positive impact on the research productivity of participating firms. Moreover, the impact of participation became much higher after the design of government programs in this field changed in the late 1990s. Also, we find that participation in government-sponsored consortia has a greater impact on research productivity than participation in collaborative R&;D among firms. This may support government involvement in R&;D as a coordinator of R&;D collaboration.     

“两化融合”对企业创新的影响研究--基于企业价值链的视角

已有文献在研究“两化融合”(信息化与工业化融合)对企业创新的影响时，忽略了两个重要问题：一是，企业活动通过价值链衔接而成，信息技术或产品会渗透到不同的价值链环节；二是，企业创新活动具有多样性，在不同价值链环节的创新形式具有差异性。基于此，文章利用2012年世界银行对中国企业所做的营商环境调查，从企业价值链视角，考察了“两化融合”对企业创新的影响。研究发现：产品设计、市场营销环节与信息化的融合提高了企业产品创新投入的倾向，生产制造环节与信息化的融合提高了企业流程创新投入的倾向。进一步的研究表明，企业“两化融合”整体水平的提升能够增加企业的新产品产值，有助于企业实现经济效益。文章的研究不仅丰富了关于“两化融合”与企业创新的认识，而且对中国制造业企业创新能力的提升和经济结构的转型也具有重要的启示。     

Multinational enterprises and innovation: firm level evidence on spillover via R&D collaboration

This paper estimates the knowledge spillovers to multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Sweden via domestic and foreign R&;D collaboration. Applying an augmented generalized method of moments-estimator that accounts for selectivity and simultaneity bias on data from 1,249 MNEs, our research has resulted in five distinct conclusions. First, we find that the knowledge spillovers via R&;D collaboration typically take place as a network phenomenon rather than a process between the local firm and a single innovation partner. Second, successful collaboration is conditional on the presence of foreign innovation partners in the network. Third, output is found to be an increasing function of R&;D-collaboration only among non-export oriented firms. Fourth, foreign MNEs, selling mainly to local and regional markets in Sweden, benefit more from R&;D collaboration than do other firms. Overall, the results show that demand-driven motives that require entrepreneurial knowledge to adapt products to local consumers and markets are more important for successful R&;D-collaboration than supply-driven motives.     

金融体系特征、风险特性与企业创新

本文基于中国工业企业库和专利数据库，利用2006—2008年中国证券市场资本化总额占比的快速上升和企业风险特性的差异，探讨了金融结构和金融发展对企业创新的影响。实证结果表明，市场主导程度更高的金融结构，而非更大的金融市场总体规模，通过缓解外部融资依赖程度更高行业中的私有企业的融资约束，显著促进了高风险私有企业的创新。以上实证结果并非由金融体系特征变化前的时间趋势所驱动，并对遗漏变量等问题保持稳健。本文对于深入理解转型升级，构建支持企业创新的金融体系具有重要政策含义。     

Reviving and assessing the Kuznets law on innovation

We apply a panel vector autoregression model to a firm-level longitudinal database to observe the co-evolution of sales growth, employment growth, profits growth and the growth of research and development (R&;D) expenditure. Contrary to expectations, profit growth seems to have little detectable association with subsequent R&;D investment. Instead, firms appear to increase their total R&;D expenditure following growth in sales and employment. In a sense, firms behave ‘as if’ they aim for a roughly constant ratio of R&;D to employment (or sales). We observe heterogeneous effects for growing or shrinking firms, however, suggesting that firms are less willing to reduce their R&;D levels following a negative growth shock than they are willing to increase R&;D after a positive shock.     

Industrial innovation and governmental policy: A review and proposal based on observation of the U.S. electronic sector

The U.S. electronics sector has been particularly successful at technological innovation since the 1940s. This paper addresses governmental policies that influence the process of technological innovation, drawing on aspects of the history of the electronics sector. Three topics receive particular attention—(1) uncertainties, ideas, and imperfect appropriability, (2) returns to R&D and associated investments, and (3) competition and selection environments. As a foundation for this discussion, several conceptual frameworks are briefly described and some classifications for innovation are explored, i.e., by importance (basic/improvement), by locus of change (process/product), by area of application (peaceful/dangerous), by locus of choice (private/public), and by value (worthwhile/not worthwhile). The discussion is underscored by the observation that better links between conceptual understanding and policy formulation are needed in order to derive practical insights into useful actions. One specific policy recommendation is tendered: an income tax credit on earnings of all employees (including salaried staff and managers) of R&D intensive firms. Such a policy would be appropriate from the standpoint of the topics outlined above (i.e., uncertainties, returns to R&D, and competition); the policy would also delegate responsibility for effective use of the subsidy to the employees and firms affected and would directly acknowledge and reward the contributions of individuals—whether in R&D, production, marketing, or support areas—to the innovative capabilities of their firms and the society at large.     

Demand shocks and firm-financed R&D expenditures

Business cycles might affect firms'?ability and incentive to perform R&;D. Firms finance most R&;D activities out of cash flow so when cash flow decreases the funds available for R&;D also decreases. This limits the ability of firms to perform R&;D, potentially leading to reduced R&;D expenditures during recessions. However, business cycles also influence the incentive to perform R&;D. The opportunity cost of funds devoted to R&;D falls during recessions since the return on production will likely be lower than during an expansion. During recessions, this provides firms with an incentive to redistribute an existing pool of funds away from production and towards R&;D projects. This paper tests whether the business cycle influences the incentive and ability of firms to engage in R&;D activities, in particular examining whether the response is symmetric across the business cycle.     

Corporate taxes, growth and welfare in a Schumpeterian economy

I take a new look at the long-run implications of taxation through the lens of modern Schumpeterian growth theory. I focus on the latest vintage of models that sterilize the scale effect through a process of product proliferation that fragments the aggregate market into submarkets whose size does not increase with the size of the workforce. I show that the following interventions raise welfare: (a) granting full expensibility of R&D to incorporated firms; (b) eliminating the corporate income tax and/or the capital gains tax; (c) reducing taxes on labor and/or consumption. What makes these results remarkable is that in all three cases the endogenous increase in the tax on dividends necessary to balance the budget has a positive effect on growth. A general implication of my analysis is that corporate taxation plays a special role in Schumpeterian economies and provides novel insights on how to design welfare-enhancing tax reforms.     

Competition,patent protection,and innovation with heterogeneous firms in an endogenous market structure

This paper revisits the relationship between competition and innovation by incorporating the heterogeneity of R&D efficiency across firms and an endogenous market structure in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Using an analytically tractable model, we show that competition and innovation can have either an inverted‐U or a negative relationship, as reported by several empirical studies. Furthermore, we show that the effect of strengthening patent protection on innovation depends on the competition level. In particular, we find a complementary relationship between competition policy and the strengthening of patent protection.     

How technological innovation affects the structure of an industry: entrepreneurship evolution in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry since 1980

Challenges faced by the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry, including reduced R&D productivity and the expiration of drugs that are high in demand, are recently being addressed through technological innovation. Such innovations are highly likely to change the structure and functioning of the industry. Since 2000, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies have actively made strategic alliance, and technological innovations have changed the source of innovation from R&D to entrepreneurship within the industry. In this study, we identify the evolution of entrepreneurship and discuss the changes caused by technological advancements since 1980 by analysing patterns of exporting and acquiring technology data from Medtrack. Over difference period, biopharmaceutical firms have gained new knowledge and improved technology, and have implemented this newly acquired knowledge and innovation to introduce drugs to the market.     

R&D subsidies in a model of growth with dynamic market structure

This paper presents the effects of an R&D subsidy in a Schumpeterian general equilibrium model with rich industry dynamics. R&D subsidies raise the long-run growth rate, but they also raise the level of industry concentration. In the model firms compete for market share through process R&D endogenously determining the market structure within and across industries. Endogeneity of the market structure allows for analysis of changes in the moments of the firm size distribution in response to policy. R&D subsidies primarily benefit large incumbent firms who increase their innovation rates creating a greater technological barrier to entry. Concentration increases with fewer firms and a higher variance in the market shares. In general equilibrium, the greater distortions in the product market cause the wage rate to fall which leads to increased turnover rates. In addition, the analysis demonstrates that the model captures a large number of empirical regularities described in the industrial organization literature, but absent from most endogenous growth models. These features, such as entering firms are small relative to incumbents, the hazard rate of exit is negatively related to firm size, and large firms spend more on R&D than small firms play important roles in understanding the impact of R&D subsidies on the economy.     

Lagging productivity growth: Measurement,technology, and shock effects

One of the most important problems about which economists have professional knowledge is lagging productivity growth. After illustrating some significant developments this paper addresses three questions: (1) To what extent does R&;D activity drive productivity growth, (2) how do alternative measures of productivity affect the conclusions and (3) how did the oil price shocks and the increased openness of the U.S. economy affect productivity growth? After removing the influence of the extremely dynamic computer industry, average manufacturing industry productivity in the U.S. throughout the 80s grew at a disappointing pace. And it didn't improve in the most dynamic industries. But there is good news as well. First, part of the 1970s productivity slump is clearly attributable to the 1973–74 oil price shock. Second and more important, technological innovation does not appear to have lost its power in driving productivity growth forward. Indeed there is evidence of stronger and more consistent productivity effects from R&;D investment during the 1980s, although the exact channels through which R&;D enhances manufacturing sector productivity are left in doubt. Estimates of the role inter-industry technology flows play are sensitive to aggregation and the conventions used to construct the industry price deflators underlying productivity measures.     

双层网络嵌入下结构洞对企业二元创新的影响研究

网络结构特征影响企业知识转移与知识组合效果,进而对创新绩效产生复杂作用。利用我国165家上市企业2007—2018年专利面板数据,实证检验企业知识与协同双层网络嵌入对二元创新绩效的影响,并分析战略柔性和开放度对上述关系的调节作用。研究结果表明,企业知识网络结构洞正向影响利用式创新绩效,负向影响探索式创新绩效;协同网络结构洞与二元创新均存在负相关关系。同时,战略柔性和开放度调节双层网络结构洞与二元创新的关系,且变量间存在有效匹配关系：知识网络结构洞—开放度促进利用式创新绩效提升,而协同网络结构洞—战略柔性促进探索式创新绩效提升。研究结论为解决结构洞与企业创新关系的分歧带来新思路,同时为企业创新绩效提升提供理论借鉴。     

中国工业产业结构与企业技术研发行为的实证分析

产业结构升级一直是我国经济学界所关心的一个问题，工业产业的升级更是一个众所关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上，利用中国工业产业数据，采用了经典的SCP范式模型．对熊彼特的两个经典假说进行了验证。发现竞争与企业利润同时对企业研发具有促进作用．熊彼特两个相互矛盾的结论同时得到了支持。通过对应分析，我们对中国工业内产业不同特点和企业不同特点进行了归类，提出国有企业在不同行业的产值比重是导致了这两个看似矛盾的结论同时并存的原因。     

Some thoughts on the Sutton approach

I analyze the relation between market size and number of firms when an endogenous number of firms chooses the market strategy and (simultaneously or sequentially) an R&D investment. I generalize the linear Cournot model with an endogenous cost-reducing activity and show that, as long as exogenous fixed costs are positive, the market structure is naturally characterized by an inverted-U relation between market size and number of firms, in line with the celebrated hypothesis of Sutton. However, the increase of the market size reduces the prices and expands individual investment and production exactly as in endogenous market structure only with exogenous fixed costs.     

Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets.     

Entry strategies into China: The choice between Joint Ventures and Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprises: An application to the Italian manufacturing sector

We investigate the entry choice between Joint Ventures and Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprises in the Chinese market. The analysis is based on Italian firms, thus allowing to evaluate the behaviour of also small-medium sized companies — usually less focused on by the literature on entry modes. The data, mainly from a questionnaire, supply detailed enterprise-level information and make possible to properly measure and evaluate the impact on entry modes of several variables such as innovation, internationalization, and, new in the empirical literature on this issue, corporate capital structure.