Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth

This paper studies the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth for the U.S. economy. Measures of co-movements in the frequency domain indicate that co-movements between variables differ strongly according to the frequency. First, long-term and business cycle co-movements are larger than short-term co-movements. Second, co-movements are negative in the short and long run, but positive over the business cycle. A New Keynesian model that combines nominal rigidity on the goods market (sticky prices) and real rigidity on the labor market (fair wages) is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the observed co-movements both in the long term and over the business cycle. However, the model fails to explain the short-term co-movements.     

Fiscal Policy in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics and Prospects for Fiscal Policy Coordination

Abstract.  This paper reviews the literature on the effects of fiscal policy in new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) models, complementing it with additional results that attempt to clarify the importance of the exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible) and of the type of policy (balanced budget or debt‐financed). Fixed exchange rates only seem to postpone the costs from the short to the long run, but the type of policy is crucial in determining the welfare impact of fiscal expansions. The paper also reviews the recent literature on fiscal policy coordination and shows that there is already some evidence that the gains from coordination in this area can be potentially large but draw attention to the need for reflecting more on the role of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool and on possible interactions between fiscal and monetary policy.     

Fiscal impact of privatization revisited: The role of tax revenues in transition economies

In contrast to earlier literature, this paper finds empirical evidence that privatization has deteriorated fiscal balances in transition economies. The investigation focuses on the role of tax revenues in explaining the fiscal impact of privatization, as it appears that tax revenue in many transition countries remained lackluster even after the adoption of several tax reforms in the last two decades, and no formal econometric assessment has been conducted of the extent to which privatization has affected tax revenues. Using panel data for 29 Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries, the analysis finds robust signs of a strong negative impact of privatization on different tax revenue sources. The paper also provides some empirical evidence favoring the early adoption of value-added taxes that appear to have contributed to government revenue recovery.     

欧洲货币一体化中的财政约束研究——基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角

随着目前欧元区财政经济状况的整体恶化,稳定与增长的矛盾凸显,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束条款再度引发诸多争议。基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角,本文试图论证为实现欧元区物价稳定和欧元汇率稳定的双重目的,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束有其必要性。     

Fiscal competition and regional differentiation

Regions can benefit by offering infrastructure services that are differentiated. Competition between regions over potential investors is then less direct, allowing them to realize greater benefits from external investors. The two polar cases of full and incomplete information about investors' needs are studied. In both cases, there is regional differentiation. However, fiscal competition is efficient in the former case but not in the latter. Finally, it is shown that free entry in the location market calls for some regulation because of the excessive number of competing regions that would prevail in equilibrium.     

Efficiency wages,wage comparison,and public sector budgeting

We develop a government decision model where efficiency wage mechanisms affect the allocation of resources between different public services. We show how the introduction of interdepartment wage relativities modifies the standard Solow wage setting conditions. We compare the outcome under centralised and decentralised wage setting, and show that a decentralised wage setting system creates a distortion. Finally, we discuss the possibility of elimination this distortion using alternative financing systems.Final version: 08 April 2003JEL Classification: H23, J45We are grateful to Jan E. Askildsen, Daniel L. Rubinfeld, Agnar Sandmo, participants at conferences and seminars in Trondheim, Uppsala and Åsgårdstrand, and several anonymous referees for helpful comments. The second author is grateful to The Norwegian Research Council for financial support. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy

It is widely accepted that, in democratic societies, incumbent governments may use various means, such as discretionary spending, to increase their chances of re-election. In the context of potential budget constraints (e.g., large debt), the incumbent might consider alternative means. Tax collection performance could be one such means that is prone to incumbents’ electoral manipulation, particularly in transition countries with a weak institutional framework. Investigating Albania, we show that fiscal performance, measured by monthly tax revenues, is poor before elections, especially in elections that result in political change. Before all elections, we observe a reduction in tax collection ranging from 3.2 percentage points in the twelve months before elections to 4.0 percentage points in the six months before elections. This implies a drop of more than half in fiscal performance compared with its long-term “natural” or average rate. Moreover, the deterioration in performance is considerably larger, by two- to threefold, before “change elections” (i.e. elections that result in a change of the governing party). After these elections, fiscal performance improves. The key to reducing deterioration in fiscal performance associated with elections is to establish rules and institutional oversight (independent or bipartisan) that reduce the discretion of tax authorities.     

中小企业发展的地方财政政策研究

文章通过分析青海省中小企业在发展中面临的外部问题,提出了加强地方财政政策对中小企业支持力度的相关建议。     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

The wage policy of firms: comparative evidence for the US and Germany from personnel data

The wage policy of a German firm and a US firm is subjected to a comparative analysis, focusing on the relation between wages and hierarchies. While previous studies have examined only one particular firm, this paper investigates two plants belonging to the same owners with similar production processes but in different institutional environments. Convex wage profiles over the hierarchy levels of both plants are found. The US plant shows considerably higher intensity of intra-firm competition in terms of higher intra-level wage inequality and annual promotion rate. In contrast, wages are more distinctly attached to hierarchy levels in the German firm, as shown by wage regressions. The results are discussed in relation to previous studies.     

投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性

本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。     

支持廉租房建设的财税政策选择

"十二五"期间,继续加强廉租房建设、解决低收入者的住房问题依然是摆在各级政府面前的一个重要的经济问题和社会政治问题。财政税收政策作为一种灵活、有效和重要的政策措施,其政策设计和有效运转,对廉租房建设有着重要作用。本文从理论上阐述了政府介入廉租房领域的必要性和合理性,明确了支持廉租房建设可采取的财税政策工具。对我国现阶段廉租房建设面临的诸如地方政府缺乏积极性、廉租房建设资金不足、廉租房供求矛盾突出以及廉租房分配效率低下等困境进行了系统分析。在此基础上,有针对性地提出了进一步支持廉租房建设的财税策略选择。     

完善公共文化服务体系的财政政策研究

公共文化服务体系作为"十二五"规划的重中之重,是现代政府公共服务体系的重要组成部分,同时也关系着我国经济社会和人的全面发展。建立健全公共文化服务体系,增强公共文化产品供给和服务能力,不断满足人民群众日益增长的精神文化需求,是政府职能在公共文化领域的具体体现,也是服务型政府的历史使命。本文在深刻阐述公共文化服务体系与政府责任的基础上,通过对政府运用财政手段支持公共文化服务体系建设现状的分析,提出建立和完善公共文化服务体系的财政政策,以期推动社会主义文化大发展大繁荣。     

市场拥挤、财政支出和税后资本平均产出关系分析

税后资本平均产出的高低对私人部门投资决策产生重要影响,但是我国自1994年分税制改革以来,税后资本平均产出处于不断下降趋势,与此同时,财政支出规模呈不断扩大趋势。本文在财政支出解决市场拥挤框架下分析了财政支出对税后资本平均产出的影响,在理论分析中,说明财政通过增加支出缓解市场拥挤来影响税后资本平均产出,其影响程度由税率、财政支出的产出弹性、市场拥挤程度决定。在实证分析中,计量检验了世界范围内和中国地方政府财政支出对税后资本平均产出的影响,并结合现实对计量结果给予解释。     

财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

关于新常态下政府财政支出绩效管理的思考

新常态下,我国社会经济不断发展,社会主义建设也在不断推进,城镇化建设逐渐完善,政府部门的财政支出也在不断加大.为了进一步实现对政府财政支出的优化管理,针对政府财政支出进行的绩效管理体系建设也逐渐铺开.为了有效提升政府财政支出的绩效管理,以及政府财政支出的工作效率和工作质量,需要从绩效管理角度对财政支出管理进行优化和创新...     

Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil

This study makes use of Brazilian data to analyze government budget balance forecast errors. Besides the analysis of the quality and efficiency of budget balance forecasts, economic, political, and institutional and governance dimensions are explored. The findings show that the data forecasts have low quality and efficiency. Furthermore, it is observed that the budget forecast error is subject to a backward-looking effect, a bias in the economic growth forecasts, as well as cyclical fluctuations. Finally, electoral cycles represent a source of overestimated forecasts, and strong institutions and governance supported by the public are able to suppress opportunistic motivations in budget forecasts.     

我国财政与经济增长关系:基于Bootstrap仿真方法的实证检验

不同经济体的财政与经济增长作用关系存在差异性,研究文献对二者理论关系的认识也并不统一。本文采用小样本可靠的Bootstrap仿真方法,利用1952~2003年为样本期的时序数据,对我国政府支出与经济增长进行了Granger因果关系的实证检验。比较研究显示,基于渐近理论的传统检验结果认为,二者不存在统计上的协整关系。利用Bootstrap仿真方法却得到不同的结论,即政府支出与经济增长具有双向的Granger因果关系,意味着我国财政和经济增长存在相互促进作用。本文结论与大多数研究文献观点存在显著区别。     

我国货币财政政策存在区域效应的实证分析

货币财政政策是现代国家干预经济的两个最重要的宏观调控政策，关于它们的研究文献数不胜数，但是长期以来一直没有对两政策实施后的区域效应给予足够的重视。本文结合目前我国东中西三大经济地带的经济发展已经存在明显差距的现实，通过两地区的简约化模型对1978-2004年间我国货币政策与财政政策在东部和中西部两个样本地区的作用进行了实证分析，结果表明，我国货币财政政策确实存在区域不对称效应，特别是货币政策，具有明显的区域影响差异。     

我国财政支出政策冲击效应的动态变化——基于包含随机波动的时变参数模型的考察

本文采用能够同时捕捉区制转换性变化和累积性变化的包含随机波动的时变参数结构向量自回归模型实证考察了1995~2009年间我国政府支出冲击效应的动态变化。结果表明虽然财政支出冲击的传导机制出现了局部的趋势性变化,但是对冲击效应的影响并不显著;冲击效应的大小主要取决于冲击本身的波动性。冲击的波动越大,冲击效应水平越高。这也使得冲击效应的动态变化在样本期间上表现出明显的区制转换性特征。