Myopia and pensions in general equilibrium

The US social security tax rate has doubled in the last half century. Does the degree of myopic behavior that we observe in the US justify the size of the social security program? To study this question we build a computable general equilibrium model that is composed of life-cycle permanent-income consumers who save optimally and “hand-to-mouth” consumers who just consume their disposable income. Our model is a continuous-time, general equilibrium extension of the model by Cremer et al. (Int Tax Public Financ 15(5):547–562, 2008), though we abstract from the redistributive function of social security to focus on myopia. Retirement is a choice variable in our model and the social security program is designed to mimic the US program in which the annuity value of benefits increases with the retirement age. Also, we allow for delayed claiming beyond the date of retirement. The model matches a variety of important data targets relating to saving and retirement. We find that small reductions in the social security tax rate provide significant welfare gains to both groups of consumers.     

Time-inconsistent preferences and time-inconsistent policies

Social security is commonly viewed as a commitment device for hyperbolic consumers. We argue that such common intuition is not consistent with formal economic theory. In a model where the government can choose either time-consistent or time-inconsistent policies to govern its social security arrangement and credit markets are complete, only a time-inconsistent policy achieves true commitment by hyperbolic consumers. This rules out a traditional social security program as a commitment device.     

住房价格、社会保障支出和居民消费——基于面板门槛模型的实证分析

党的十九大报告提出了改善住房制度、加强社会保障和完善消费体制等一系列要求,这些热点问题之间不是孤立的,而是存在着内在的联系。为此,基于不确定性视角,将社会保障支出水平纳入分析框架研究发现,住房价格上涨通过社会保障支出对居民消费产生正向影响,与原有住房价格通过收入视角对居民消费产生的效应相叠加,使住房价格对居民消费产生的总效应呈现非线性关系。在此基础上,以地方政府社会保障支出水平作为门槛变量,建立关于房价和居民消费率关系的面板门槛模型,以我国2007—2015年省际面板数据为样本进行实证分析,结果表明：社会保障水平的变化使得住房价格对于居民消费率的影响存在显著的单门槛效应。当社会保障支出水平小于其门槛值时,住房价格上涨对居民消费率有较强的抑制效应,两者之间呈现显著的负相关关系;当社会保障水平超过门槛值后,住房价格上涨对居民消费率的抑制效应明显减弱。     

A resolution to the NPV–IRR debate?

Two criteria for choosing between capital investment projects are net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). Sometimes they provide inconsistent rankings. This inconsistency sparked a debate about which criterion is better. The debate has lasted more than 100 years.This paper describes a new approach to the debate. The time value of money equation is a polynomial, and a polynomial of order n does not have a single root. It has n roots. The result of taking into account the n solutions for IRR is a new equation for NPV that suggests a resolution to the debate.     

Do employment subsidies work? Evidence from regionally targeted subsidies in Turkey

This paper studies the effects on registered employment and number of registered establishments of two employment subsidy schemes in Turkey. We implement a difference-in-differences methodology to construct appropriate counterfactuals for the covered provinces. Our findings suggest that both subsidy programs did lead to significant net increases in registered jobs in eligible provinces (5%–13% for the first program and 11%–15% for the second). However, the cost of the actual job creation was high because of substantial deadweight losses, particularly for the first program (47% and 78%). Because of better design features, the second subsidy program had lower, though still significant, deadweight losses (27%–46%). Although constrained by data availability, the evidence suggests that the dominant effect of subsidies was to increase social security registration of firms and workers rather than boosting total employment and economic activity. This supports the theory that in countries with weak enforcement institutions, high labor taxes on low-wage workers may lead to substantial incentives for firms and workers to operate informally.     

The political intergenerational welfare state

Using a three-period overlapping generations economy framework, we characterize an intergenerational welfare state with endogenous education and pension under voting. We show that although politically establishing Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) social security in isolation in a dynamically efficient economy will always reduce the capital investment and therefore the social welfare as expected, in contrast politically implementing education-pension policy package instead can improve both human and physical capital accumulation and social welfare over laissez faire. However for this the political influence of the old has to be small thus limiting the size of the PAYG social security program.     

我国失地农民社会保障制度设计的价值取向

改革开放以来,我国社会保障制度建设已经成为了市场经济发展的重要支柱。社会保障作为一种公共产品,其背后的价值理念也应纳入到制度设计的范畴。社会保障制度的价值取向是制度发展、建立和改革的潜在价值准则。本论文主要从"公平正义"和"以人为本"两个角度论述了失地农民社会保障制度设计的价值取向。     

Decision analysis of auto emission control

In response to public pressure to reduce air pollution, governments are forced to consider alternate means to limit auto emissions. This paper addresses the problem of evaluating these regulatory policies and choosing the one that is best for society.Economic tradeoffs play an important role in the analysis of emission control policies. Cleaner air comes only at a price, and the judgments as to “How clean?” At what price?” and “At who's expense?” are crucial. Once these value issues are resolved, questions of implementation remain. “How do regulatory policies such as mandatory emission standards for cars compare with a system of emission taxes?” “Are there ways to collect a fee from drivers to compensate those who breathe their pollution, without taxing emissions directly?”Our approach is first to describe a decision-focused analytical procedure for evaluating various policy alternatives. This procedure is then demonstrated with a preliminary analysis of representative emission control plans for the Los Angeles air basin. Both emission standards and market or “pricing” alternatives are considered. These plans include: present (1975) emission standards; an emission tax; an increase in the gasoline tax; a policy of no government control.The preliminary analysis shows market mechanisms to be superior to present emission standards. Many significant advantages of market mechanisms are discussed, though this conclusion is due primarily to—in our opinion—inappropriate value judgments that are implicit in the present standards.The analytical framework is very general, and it can be applied to a wide variety of social decisions involving externalities. The quantitative models developed, though preliminary, can be used by organizations such as regional planning agencies or pollution control boards. However, these models must not be viewed as formulas for answers to social problems. Rather, they are intended as aids for the policy maker that will help him or her balance the many factors that influence the decision and provide insight to the wisest social course of action.     

Causality in social theory via linguistic fuzzy logic

I present a new approach to the study of causality in social theory using linguistic fuzzy logic as a framework. This approach differs from conventional analysis of causality on two fronts. First, all variables are considered to possess two degrees of freedom (or variation): a linguistic nuance value, which corresponds to what we conventionally refer to as interval or categorical value, and a linguistic truth value, which measures our confidence level in this nuance value. Second, combining this double fuzzification of variables with linguistic fuzzy logic I propose new tools for studying fuzzy causality. The linguistic fuzzy logic approach is illustrated through a re-examination of Skocpol’s (1979, States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge) theory of social revolution.     

Social Security, Poverty and Economic Transition: An Analysis for Bulgaria 1992–96

The paper addresses the issues of poverty and social security in a transitional environment on the basis of recent economic developments in Bulgaria. Special emphasis is placed on the need for a new type of social safety net stemming from the radical changes in the political and economic system. The evolution of the social security system in Bulgaria during the transition is analysed focusing on such elements as the pension system, unemployment benefits, child allowances, etc. The empirical analysis is based on extensive use of data from the Bulgarian Household Budget Surveys during the period 1992–1996. Poverty in Bulgaria is measured using different poverty measurements and some quantitative results showing the changing dimensions of poverty in the transition period are presented and discussed in the paper.EES or e-mail at Corresponding author. E-mail:     

中美比较视角下的社会保障基金监管评议

社会保障基金是社会保障制度的重要组成部分,而对社会保障基金的监管则是保证社会保障基金良好运作的前提。本文通过对美国和中国社会保障基金监管现状的比较,找寻我国在社会保障基金监管方面与发达国家的差距,并从中汲取有益的经验,希望对我国社会保障基金监管提出有益的建议,促进我国社会保障基金监管朝着健康有序的方向发展。     

Does corporate environmental protection increase or decrease shareholder value? The case of environmental investments

This study examines share price effects of environmental investments using data from the Finnish forest industry from 1970 to 1996. The results indicate that the instantaneous market reaction is negative, and that the larger the investment, the larger the fall in prices. However, contrary to the view that corporate actions have a permanent effect on firm value, we observe rapid price recovery after the instantaneous negative reaction. This may support a hypothesis that environmental investments create goodwill for the investing firms and are thus not negative net present value investments. Unexpectedly, we find that the instantaneous negative market reaction was stronger in the most recent sample years. Explanations for this finding relate to the slowness of institutional change within the financial community as well as to the growing share of international investors seeking short‐term holding gains. In conclusion, it appears that not only finance theory but also notions from institutional theory and corporate environmental management literature are needed to explain stock price behaviour in conjunction with environmental investments. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

The Long Run Problem of Financing the Social Security System

Abstract . The Social Security Amendments of 1972 radically altered the Social Security System (SSS) by including, among other things, provisions whereby the taxable wage base would thereafter rise with increases in the average U.S. wage level and benefits would rise with increases in the Consumer Price Index. These provisions, in fact, have so affected the magnitude of present and potential future social security benefit payments that today, in spite of the restoration of short-run financial viability, the very financial solvency of the system over the long run is at issue. In an attempt to understand this financial solvency problem, three questions are examined: 1) how are social security benefits calculated today; 2) how have the underlying principles of the SSS changed recently; and 3) what does the future of the SSS look like? The results of that examination leave little doubt that the SSS must again be changed significantly if its long run financial solvency is to be restored, but President Carter's recent recommendations for change appear to be only a temporary solution to a long run problem.     

动态价值评估在汽车项目收购中的应用

本文从项目并购实例着手,对企业价值评估方法创新进行探讨。迄今为止虽已有许多企业价值评估方法,如账面价值法、重置成本法、股票和债券市场法、折现现金流量法、经济附加价值法等;但这些评估方法均无法以动态时效角度来评估企业的综合价值。当前价值评估在实践中有下述主要问题:(1)各种评估方法更多地停留在企业净资产或静态价值评估上,无法对动态价值变化提供有效的评估方法或体系;(2)现有评估理论和评估方法基于单一的、通用的、理想的企业价值环境,对企业价值变动的多元因素和复杂程度估计不足。为解决上述这些问题,本文根据项目实际操作过程,提出企业动态价值概念,拟建构一种可同时兼顾企业净资产价值、收益价值及动态价值多元兼顾的综合企业价值评估法,以突破传统方法仅能从单一角度或静态环境衡量企业价值的局限。     

The production network: An efficient tool in modelling territorial development plans

A rational distribution of productive forces on a country's territory is directly reflected in the saving of social labour, with all its well-known advantages. When one considers this, the importance of modelling territorial forecasts as realistically as possible becomes obvious. Modelling and optimizing a forecast can be done by means of the production network.Technical Economic Aspects. By territorial production network the authors of this paper mean a unitary system of manufacturing centres, in a given industrial sub-branch, which find themselves in a permanently interconditioning position and are distributed throughout the country in such a way that, on the sale of national economy, there should exist a minimum effort of social labour (materialised in investment outlay and in production and circulation expenditure) for meetong home requirements of productive and non-productive consumption and for providing efficient exports. The minimization of the social labour effort constitutes the criterion function of the model.Social Political Aspects. The optimum solution for the sub-branch might not always be adopted on the scale of national economy. This would happen since, in the process of optimizing the production network for each individual industry, a great number of optimal locations might be concentrated at a limited number of geographical points, thus generating territorial disparities in the economy as a whole. To prevent this happening, it becomes necessary, after determining from the economic standpoint the best production network for all industrial sub-branches, to find a rational way of socially harmonizing the people's material and cultural standards in all the various areas of the country. One might, for instance, harmonize the inter-zonal net industrial output per capita, since the net output represents in fact the added value created in the social process of extended reproduction.A solution to this problem will secure an efficient dynamic equilibrium of the industrial output potential between the various areas of a country and per successive plan stages and, implicitly, a faster rise in living standards for the population in the economically less developed areas.     

社会管理的现状及新对策

改革的深化以及市场经济的发展,社会出现了许多新的情况：随着城市化进程的加快,大量的农村人口涌入城市,对这部分人进行有效的管理包括户籍管理提出了严峻的挑战;诸如土地买卖、房屋拆迁的群体性事件增多;对于网络这个虚拟社会的管理也显得非常重要。上述这些问题都对公安机关新形势下在社会管理方面提出了挑战。本文从公安机关的性质职能、社会管理方面的特征等入手通过分析现阶段社会管理方面面临的问题及原因,提出了公安机关在社会管理方面的建议,以期能提高我国公安机关的管理效率,为和谐社会的建立提供一个良好的环境。     

Relationships between municipal bond rates,underwriter margins and market yields

Expressions are given relating municipal bond coupon rates to underwrite profit margins and the market yield. These expressions are applied to the examination of net interest rates, net present value and the cost of capital of serial bond issues. The conditions which must be satisfied so that a decrease in net interest rate corresponds to an increase in net present value (hence a decrease in the cost of capital to the issuer) are presented.     

Social security and cross-country differences in hours: A general equilibrium analysis

I develop a general equilibrium life cycle model with an intensive and extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation. I use the model to assess the effects of changes to various features of social security on labor supply outcomes. Of particular interest are changes to the scale of the program and to the relevant eligibility rules. I find that the cross-country differences in social security programs account for at least 79% of the differences in employment rates of people aged 55–64 and 17–31% of the differences in aggregate hours worked between the US and continental Europe.     

耕地多功能价值构成及其测算研究——以咸宁市为例

以土地资源总价值理论为基础,对耕地资源的多功能价值构成进行了分析,包括耕地实际生产收益价值、社会保障价值、社会稳定价值、生态安全价值四个部分,探讨了各价值构成的测算方法。并以湖北省咸宁市为例,测算该市耕地单位面积综合价值。     

Capital rationing: The general case and a better criterion for ranking

The definition of net present value implies that the reinvestment rate of return on the intermediate cash flows is equal to the risk-adjusted discount rate of the project. However, in many situations, the two rates are different. Therefore, in capital rationing, the ranking of projects based on net present value is incorrect in those situations. Another problem is that financial managers would prefer to use internal rate of return for ranking, although ranking by net present value is theoretically superior. This paper solves both problems by developing a new ranking criterion.