Numerical solution of dynamic equilibrium models under Poisson uncertainty

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households.     

Inequity-averse preferences in general equilibrium

We study the stability with respect to the introduction of opportunity-based inequity aversion à la Dufwenberg et al. (2011) of three welfare properties satisfied by competitive equilibria in self-regarding economies: (i) Pareto efficiency may not be a stable property; (ii) undomination with respect to income redistribution is a stable property whenever the marginal indirect utility of income has no extreme variations; and (iii) generically (endowment-wise) market-constrained efficiency is a stable property.     

Risk aversion in RDEU

Various notions of risk aversion can be distinguished for the class of rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) preferences. We discuss the relationships amongst five of these, and describe simple (testable) characterizations in terms of elementary probability transformations for all but the weakest notion. The paper also provides the first complete characterization of the RDEU orderings that are risk-averse in the sense of Jewitt [Jewitt, I., 1989. Choosing between risky prospects: the characterization of comparative static results and location independent risk. Management Science 35, 60–70]. We also extend Chew et al.’s [Chew, S.H., Karni, E., Safra, Z., 1987. Risk aversion in the theory of utility with rank-dependent probabilities. Journal of Economic Theory 42, 370–381] important characterization of strong risk aversion [Rothschild, M., Stiglitz, J.E., 1970. Increasing risk: I. A definition. Journal of Economic Theory 2, 225–243] by relaxing strict monotonicity and differentiability assumptions, and allowing for discontinuities in the probability transformation function. The important special case of maximin choice falls within this relaxed RDEU class. It is shown that any strongly risk-averse RDEU order is a convex combination of maximin and another RDEU order with concave utility and continuous, concave probability transformation. Our proof of the result on strong risk aversion is also simpler (as well as more general) than that of Chew et al. [Chew, S.H., Karni, E., Safra, Z., 1987. Risk aversion in the theory of utility with rank-dependent probabilities. Journal of Economic Theory 42, 370–381].     

Comparative Ross risk aversion in the presence of mean dependent risks

This paper studies comparative risk aversion between risk averse agents in the presence of a background risk. Our contribution differs from most of the literature in two respects. First, background risk does not need to be additive or multiplicative. Second, the two risks are not necessarily mean independent, and may be conditional expectation increasing or decreasing. We show that our order of cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to the order of partial risk premium, while our index of decreasing cross Ross risk aversion is equivalent to decreasing partial risk premium. These results generalize the comparative risk aversion model developed by Ross for mean independent risks. Our theoretical results are related to utility functions having the n-switch independence property.     

Ross risk vulnerability for introductions and changes in background risk

We present two theorems that provide necessary and sufficient conditions for an expected utility maximizer to become more risk averse in the sense of Ross with respect to bearing a foreground risk after the introduction of any independent fair or unfair additive background risk. We call these decision makers Ross risk vulnerable, and show that Ross decreasing absolute risk aversion and Ross decreasing absolute prudence are jointly sufficient for Ross risk vulnerability. Restrictions on utility necessary and sufficient for Ross risk vulnerability with respect to stochastic dominance deteriorations of an existing background risk are also presented. Our analysis concludes with applications of Ross risk vulnerability.     

Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators’ as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without insurance innovation completely disappears in the long run. The present paper introduces risk averse agents into an occupational choice model of endogenous growth in which insurance against failure to innovate is not available. We derive a clear negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and long run growth. Surprisingly, we show that in an equilibrium there exists a cut-off value of risk aversion below which the growth rate of the mass of innovators tends to a strictly positive constant. In this case, innovation persists on the long run and consumption per capita grows at a strictly positive rate. On the other hand, for levels of risk aversion above the cut-off value, the economy eventually stagnates.     

浅谈建筑施工企业财务风险及规避方法

2014年铁路总投资超8000亿,逼近历史最高点,7月5日一则"铁路建设密集铺开,一天新建4条"的新闻不禁让人对施工企业建设项目承揽额高速拓展时存在的财务风险发起深思。企业是以盈利为目的的,业务量增加看似必然会增加利润,但由于自身管理水平有限、市场价格波动、财税政策改变等诸多因素,使得财务风险客观存在且不可预测。这就使得建筑施工企业在经营管理的全过程中必须合理估计和衡量财务风险,同时采用科学的成本控制措施减少损失,实现预期的经济评估效益。     

Decreasing downside risk aversion and background risk

In this paper, we show that risk vulnerability can be associated with the concept of downside risk aversion (DRA) and an assumption about its behavior, namely that it is decreasing in wealth. Specifically, decreasing downside risk aversion in the Arrow–Pratt and Ross senses are respectively necessary and sufficient for a zero-mean background risk to raise the aversion to other independent risks.     

Risk premia in multi-national enterprises

The CAPM implies that investors require equity risk premia when choosing risky investments and therefore demand higher returns to equity invested if higher risk is present. This should apply to investments in independent enterprises and multi-national enterprises alike. This hypothesis is investigated by analyzing a panel of 407,000 European firms for the years 1985 to 2010. When income is set in relation to invested capital, risk measured by earnings volatility emerges as the most important stable determinant of income. Results indicate that both MNEs and independent firms regularly account for risk as a major determinant of income when pricing international goods and services. Hence international taxation rules for multi-national enterprises should account for risk premia in transfer prices and resulting profits.     

New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators to identify these three components. The results indicate that the sharp declines in the 10-year and 5-year break-even inflation rates in 2009 reflect a substantial increase in liquidity risk rather than a decrease in inflation expectations. Break-even inflation rates underestimate inflation expectations over nearly the entire sample due to the liquidity risk premia carried by the inflation indexed bond yields. Also, the model-implied inflation expectations show better forecast performance for the average annual inflation rates than raw break-even inflation rates, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Surveys of Consumers inflation forecasts.     

基于CCA模型的信用风险定价分析与实证研究

信用风险一直是银行和其他金融机构关心的主要话题。对待信用风险的传统方法是由信用风险部门根据过去的数据进行统计估计。然而,在最近几年,随着金融市场的迅速发展以及金融工具的日益复杂化,这种方法已经显得无法适应了。从最广义的风险说起,把讨论范围逐渐缩小,最后缩小至信用风险的定价问题。通过Merton模型对信用风险定价过程作一般性推导,同时给出一个例子以便掌握运用这种方法。     

苏丹工程承包风险分析

苏丹作为中国在非洲最大的合作伙伴,大量的中国企业在苏丹进行投资和工程承包活动。2011年7月南苏丹正式从苏丹分离。本文主要分析了在这一特定的时期下,在苏丹进行工程承包的中国企业所面临的各种风险(如战争风险、资金风险、税务风险、汇率风险、保函风险等)和规避风险的具体方法。     

Risk aversion in the supply chain: Evidence from replenishment decisions

This study investigates the impact of individual risk aversion on replenishment decisions in a multi-echelon supply chain, and explores whether this impact is affected by experiential learning. The methodology applied is that of observational studies, while the multi-echelon supply chain is modeled through the classical Beer Game. Participants in the study are purchasing and supply chain professionals. Results suggest that risk aversion leads to higher orders, Risk aversion persists even after experience of the game has been gained.     

Costly State Verification with Varying Risk Preferences and Liability

Abstract.  In the scenario of loan contracts with costly state verification, we examine how the properties of the set of states, different risk preferences of debtors and varying liability of lenders affect the structure of optimal repayments. In particular, we show that with risk‐averse debtors, a general set of states, a constant observation cost and both unlimited and limited lender liability, the debtor is strictly better off revealing the true state of nature when his realized revenue is low, which implies that optimal debtor consumption has a downward jump around the single switch from observed to unobserved states. If the debtor can destroy revenue or if the debtor is risk neutral, this non‐monotonicity of consumption disappears. Moreover, given the loan size, there is more monitoring under debtor‐risk aversion than risk neutrality. We present simulations showing that a contract with unlimited lender liability and debtor‐risk aversion has a higher expected observation cost but a lower variance of consumption than a contract with limited lender liability. Finally, we discuss the problems of commitment to verification and contract renegotiation in this framework.     

Explaining the Czech interbank market risk premium

This paper focuses on the development of the interbank market risk premium in the Czech Republic during the global financial crisis. We explain the significant departure of interbank interest rates from the key monetary policy rate by a combination of different factors, including liquidity risk, counterparty risk, foreign influence, interbank relations, and strategic behavior. The results suggest a relevant role of market factors and some importance of counterparty risk.     

浅析铜川市接续产业转移风险分析与规避

资源型产业是城市经济的核心和命脉,因资源濒临枯竭的城市需要产业转移,产业结构需要调整,接续产业转移是资源枯竭城市可持续发展的一条有效途径。本文通过对铜川资源枯竭型城市产业转移存在着不确定风险因素的剖析,分析了承接产业转移给铜川市所带来的实现资源合理优化和接续产业的有效协调发展效应,以期为铜川市的转型和持续发展提供有益参考。     

控制风险、风险溢价与审计收费——来自深市上市公司2007年年报的经验证据

理论上,内部控制质量是审计收费的决定因素之一,但是由于内部控制信息难以获得,因而鲜有这方面的经验证据.而2007年证监会要求上市公司提供内部控制自评报告的规定为评价内部控制质量提供了契机.根据审计价值理论,以2007年深市上市公司为研究样本,考察控制风险(内部控制质量)和诉讼风险对审计收费的影响.研究发现控制风险和审计收费之间的确存在正相关关系,且审计收费中包含了一定程度的风险溢价.     

Risk premia and seasonality in commodity futures

We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic seasonality. We document the existence of stochastic seasonal fluctuations in commodity futures and that properly accounting for the cost‐of‐carry curve requires at least three factors. We estimate the model using data on heating oil futures and analyze the contribution of the factors to risk premia. Correctly specifying seasonality as stochastic is important to avoid erroneously assigning those fluctuations to other risk factors. We also estimate a nonlinear version of the model that imposes the zero lower bound on interest rates and find similar results.     

论合同能源管理的风险控制体系

合同能源管理(EPC)风险具有多样性和复杂性,需要我们在设计应对策略时系统考量。本文从合同能源管理的风险回避、风险防范、风险分配、风险转移等四个方面论述合同能源管理的风险控制体系。     

非有效市场股权风险溢价的确定——基于投入产出分析

从实体经济领域着手,运用投入产出分析构建了非有效市场股权风险溢价计算模型,并运用所构建模型计算了我国整体经济、主要行业以及目标企业的股权风险溢价,进而确定了目标企业股权价值评估时应采用的折现率。