Minimum investment requirement,financial market imperfection and self-fulfilling belief

We develop a model in which a strategic complementarity in saving decisions arises due to a minimum investment requirement and financial market imperfection. We explore the role of self-fulling beliefs in determining the long run dynamics. The model exhibits a wide range of dynamic phenomena such as a poverty trap, a big push and a sunspot equilibrium, depending on the level of financial market imperfection. They account for excessive volatility and a sudden change in the saving rate and its macroeconomic consequences without any shocks to fundamentals.     

SEQUENTIAL VOTING WHEN LONG ELECTIONS ARE COSTLY

This paper analyzes sequential voting in binary elections when voters are motivated by a desire both to elect their preferred candidate and to avoid a long and costly election. I find a unique equilibrium in which a voter's action depends both on the intensity of the voter's preferences as well as how well the candidates have done in earlier voting rounds. This equilibrium results in momentum in which voters are more likely to vote for the candidate currently in the lead. Furthermore, the probability a voter votes for a candidate is increasing in the size of the candidate's lead. As a consequence, a candidate is more likely to win the election if the candidate's stronger supporters vote earlier in the election.     

Sub-national political regimes and asymmetric fiscal decentralization

This paper develops a model to explain how sub-national political regimes affect the variation in retention rates in a country in which a region and a central government bilaterally bargain over the distribution of tax revenue given a particular tax rate (and thus fiscal decentralization is asymmetric). This study examines cases in which both sub-national and national governments have the same political regime (democracies and non-democracies) and situations in which the central and regional political regimes differ. This article shows that in the latter case, regions receive a smaller share of tax revenue for a broad set of parameters of the model (as opposed to the case of a pure non-democracy); in the case of identical political regimes, the comparative fiscal decentralization is determined by the productivity-enhancing effect of regional public goods.     

Global environmental problems and the strategic choice of technology

Reductions of environmentally harmful emissions are often a public good in a global context. For strategic reasons, countries may adopt a technology with high per unit cost of emission reduction, even if a technology with lower per unit cost is available at no extra cost. They thereby credibly commit themselves to not reducing emission much in the future. In a game of private voluntary provision of emission reduction, this commitment will make other countries increase their emission reductions. Also, in the case where countries cooperate in the future, such commitment gives a country a strategic advantage, because it shifts the disagreement point in a favorable direction.     

Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism

Abstract .  Following a monetary tightening, bank loans to consumers decrease. This is true for both mortgage and non-mortgage loans, and it is true for a tightening by the Bank of Canada that is, and is not, a response to a tightening by the Federal Reserve System. In contrast, business loans increase following a monetary tightening. The 'perverse' response of business loans cannot be explained by an increase in the demand for funds due to a reduction in real activity. These results are consistent with a change in bank portfolio behaviour in favour of business loans in response to a monetary tightening.     

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru

It has been widely documented that the exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation has decreased significantly in most of the industrialized world. As microeconomic factors cannot completely explain such a widespread phenomenon, a macroeconomic explanation linked to the inflationary environment—that a low and more stable inflation rate leads to a decrease in the pass-through—has gained popularity. Using a structural VAR framework, this paper presents evidence of a similar decline in the pass-through in Peru, a small open economy that gradually reduced inflation to international levels in order to adopt a fully fledged inflation targeting scheme in 2002. It is argued that the establishment of a credible regime of low inflation has been instrumental in driving the exchange rate pass-through down.     

Employment and Length of the Working Week in a Unionized Economy in which Hours of Work Influence Productivity*

Conditions are derived for signing the employment effects in a unionized economy of a legislated cut in hours when productivity depends on the number of hours worked each week. Aggregate data suggest that employment will generally increase after a small cut in hours for the UK but the employment effect is ambiguous for Australia. Disaggregated data for Australia suggest that the employment effect of a cut in hours is often positive However, any cut in hours imposed on a monopoly union, without a cut in pay, will unambiguously lead to a drop in employment     

A dynamic analysis of the differential incidence of capital and labour taxes in a two-class economy

This paper studies a differential incidence model, where a rise in a capital tax is accompanied by a change in a labour tax to hold constant the per capita government revenue, in a two-class growing economy. The major concern is to analyse the conditions necessary for the burden of such a tax substitution to fall solely, partially, or inconsequentially on capitalists or workers. The results obtained indicate that a higher rate of capital tax tends to impose a greater burden on workers.     

The codetermined firm in a Cournot duopoly: A stability analysis

This paper aims to study the stability issue in a Cournot duopoly with codetermined firms. We show that when both firms codetermine employment together with decentralised employees' representatives, a rise in wages acts as an economic (de)stabiliser when the wage is fairly (high) low, while under profit maximisation a rise in wages always acts as a stabilising device because the parametric stability region monotonically increases with the wage in such a case. Moreover, a rise in the union's bargaining power has a de-stabilising effect, except when the wage is low and the firm power is already high. Therefore, under codetermination a change either in the wage or firm power in the Nash bargaining plays an ambiguous role on stability. We also show with numerical simulations that complex dynamics can also occur.     

Reforming Social Security in a Transition Economy: The Case of Lithuania

This paper points out a number of problems associated with the existing pension system in Lithuania. Reforms are proposed, including (i) a substantial increase in the basic pension benefit rate, financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, provided universally, and regulated according to wage/price indexation; (ii) a significant cut in the tax contribution rate to the public pension system matched by a rise in the VAT; (iii) a rise in the retirement age to 65 for both men and women; and (iv) a gradual conversion to a private, funded, mandatory pension system to replace the earnings-related part of the current pension system.     

The determination of union and non-union wage rates

If, in a partially unionised economy, union workers force up their absolute wage rate, how does this affect the wage paid in the non-union sector? This paper suggests a simple answer. First, in a small open economy a rise in the union wage will raise the non-union wage. Secondly, in a closed economy — or one with some monopoly power in world trade — a rise in the union wage seems likely to depress the non-union wage.     

Inflation persistence,inflation expectations,and monetary policy in China

This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attributed to better conduct of monetary policy and the resultant better anchored inflation expectations. This finding implies that the quiescence of inflation in China over the past decade could well be followed by a return to a high inflation era in the absence of a determined effort by the monetary authorities in managing inflation expectations. Therefore, the use of a preemptive monetary policy to anchor inflationary expectations and to keep inflation moderate is warranted in China.     

Nonlinear stochastic effects of substitution — an evolutionary approach

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well known research traditions on self-organisation models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature we show the existence of a specific niche effect, which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of a new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome.     

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modelled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.     

Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises

This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, currency mismatch and borrowing constraints arise endogenously in that sector. This sectoral asymmetry allows the model to replicate the main features of observed boom–bust episodes. In particular, episodes begin with a lending boom and a real appreciation, peak in a self-fulfilling crisis during which a real depreciation coincides with widespread bankruptcies, and end in a recession and credit crunch. The nontradables sector accounts for most of the volatility in output and credit.     

Technological change and industry structure: A case study of the petroleum industry

This paper is a case study of the impact of an exogenous improvement of a process technology on the structure of the petroleum industry. The paper examines the role of three-dimensional seismology in bringing about the 1990s oil industry consolidation. This proposition is examined in the context of evolutionary economics and in a non-cooperative game theory, concluding with a reference to Steindl's theory of industry dynamics. The significance of this contribution lies chiefly in highlighting the fact that exogenous technological change can, under appropriate conditions, play a significant role in industry dynamics. This reference to the exogenous change in technology is a departure from the traditional consideration of endogenity of industry structure in relation to technological development and, therefore, a novelty. Secondly, the documentation of 3D seismology as a significant process technology of the petroleum industry is significant.     

Privatisation in Russia Has Led to Criminalisation

Abstract
Russia has recently embarked on a dramatic program of privatisation as part of the process of shock therapy which aims to convert the command economy to a market economy. This program has been undertaken in the absence of a well-developed set of institutions needed for the proper functioning of a market economy. These institutions include a legal system, a related system of property rights, a credit system, a system of commercial banks, classified advertising, an accounting system and others including a sound currency and a social safety net. In the absence of these institutions the incentives facing agents in economic transactions have been perverted. This has led to criminalisation of the economy, dramatic falls in production, loss of confidence in all aspects of commerce, and political instability. The recent Russian experience of privatisation has important lessons for other economies in transition, for developing economies and for economic theory.     

Critical mass of users versus critical mass of services in a multiproduct information service system

In this paper we study the economic behaviour of the suppliers of a set of advanced telecommunications services with a joint adoption cost (common access facilities, learning process, etc.). In fixing the two-part tariffs for their services the suppliers have to share the burden of leaving to the users a surplus sufficient to cover the adoption cost. The lack of coordination in supplying a critical mass of services or in the pricing decisions has high changes to result in suboptimal or unviable diffusion of the new technology as a whole. We present a static optimization model of user behaviour, and derive access and usage demand with a two-part tariff and a joint adoption cost. We compare noncooperative and cooperative market equilibria in a duopoly with perfect information; finally we discuss the extension of our analysis to the case of imperfect information in a dynamic setting.     

Designing and rolling-out a global style in process innovation

This paper discusses a consultancy project for a large multinational-manufacturing client. Style is explored as a concept originatirg in 'cultural' rather than economic disciplines. Three interpretations of culture are explored which have differing, complementary implications for managing style in technology-related organizational learning. The overall intenlion is not to identity and install a global 'best' style or a universal model of IT-related organizational culture. Rather it is to develop heuristics, which highlight what may require attention and handling in a practical situation, within a dialopue-based and learning-oriented approach to global-local strategy in complex production systems.     

Islamic Economics in the Late Ottoman Empire: Menâpirzâde Nuri Bey's Mebâhis-i İlm-i Servet

The existing literature on Islamic economics suggests that Islamic economics is a twentieth-century phenomenon with its roots in medieval Islamic intellectual and theological history, thereby leaving a centuries-long gap in the history of Islamic economic thinking. This study aims at taking a first step towards filling this gap by examining a nineteenth-century example of Islamic economics in late Ottoman economic literature. Suggesting a broader definition of Islamic economics, this article investigates a prominent Ottoman intellectual's efforts to define, reveal, and revive a tradition of Islamic economics in historical and intellectual context.