江苏省产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文通过实证研究,分析和度量江苏省不同产业对地区经济增长的作用,以及苏南和苏北不同产业对地区经济增长的作用,因此对于各地区正确调整产业结构、改善经济增长模式和缩小区域经济差距,进一步提升我省的经济竞争力,保持我省经济总量持续稳定的增长具有一定的参考价值。     

Specification and inference in linear models

In the framework of I.I.D. sampling, a general class of linear models is analyzed. Incidental parameters are shown to naturally arise in this class of models. More fundamentally, special attention is paid to the high dimensionality of the parameter space. The objective of the paper is to offer a strategy for progressively specifying a model within that class of linear models. By so doing, we aim at displaying the precise role of each assumption, at offering alternatives to unnecessarily restrictive specifications, and, thereby, at improving the robustness of the inference procedures we discuss. Decompositions of the inference process are obtained through a systematic use of (Bayesian) cuts. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bayesian Inference are discussed.An objective of the progressive specification is to preserve the computational tractability and the interpretability of the procedures we develop by relying on known properties of the usual multivariate regression model.     

Bias of OLS Estimators due to Exclusion of Relevant Variables and Inclusion of Irrelevant Variables

In this paper, I discuss three issues related to bias of OLS estimators in a general multivariate setting. First, I discuss the bias that arises from omitting relevant variables. I offer a geometric interpretation of such bias and derive sufficient conditions in terms of sign restrictions that allows us to determine the direction of bias. Second, I show that inclusion of some omitted variables will not necessarily reduce the magnitude of bias as long as some others remain omitted. Third, I show that inclusion of irrelevant variables in a model with omitted variables can also have an impact on the bias of OLS estimators. I use a running example of a simple wage regression to illustrate my arguments.     

Conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models

Brodie and de Kluyver have reported empirical results in which simple naive models have produced forecasts as accurate as those derived from econometric models. I apply some recent theoretical results to show that these findings are plausible. I also suggest some general conditions under which econometric models will outperform naive models.     

Commentary on “Transparent modelling of influenza incidence”: Is the answer simplicity or adaptability?

It is a pleasure to comment on the paper by Katsikopoulos et al. (2021), where they present a provocative and stimulating viewpoint in which they argue that simple forecasting rules based on heuristics frequently outperform big data models and should be used as a benchmark when testing big data models. I argue that it is important not to conflate simplicity with adaptability, and that there is a role for big data models in forecasting.     

Generalized least squares inference in panel and multilevel models with serial correlation and fixed effects

In this paper, I consider generalized least squares (GLS) estimation in fixed effects panel and multilevel models with autocorrelation. The presence of fixed effects complicates implementation of GLS as estimating the fixed effects will typically render standard estimators of the covariance parameters necessary for obtaining feasible GLS estimates inconsistent. I focus on the case where the disturbances follow an AR(p) process and offer a simple to implement bias-correction for the AR coefficients. The usefulness of GLS and the derived bias-correction for the parameters of the autoregressive process is illustrated through a simulation study which uses data from the Current Population Survey.     

Estimation of econometric models of some discrete games

This paper discusses, estimates and compares some microeconometric models for simultaneous discrete endogenous variables. The models are based on the assumption that observed endogenous variables represent the outcome of a static discrete game. I discuss models based on non-cooperative equilibrium concepts (Nash, Stackelberg), as well as models which presume Pareto optimality of observed outcomes. The models are estimated using data on the joint labor force participation decisions of husbands and wives in a sample of Dutch households.     

NOMINAL AND REAL WAGE RIGIDITIES IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS: A CRITICAL SURVEY

Abstract The labour market is receiving increasing attention in the New Keynesian literature. In this paper, I critically survey this literature in order to highlight the role played by wage rigidities in the explanation of fluctuations caused by technology shocks. To this aim, I present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices, nominal wage rigidities and hiring costs. The comparison between this model and that of Blanchard and Gali highlights the non‐trivial differences which exist in the way nominal wage and real wage rigidities drive the economy's dynamics. My conclusion is that models incorporating nominal wage rigidities and some degree of price stickiness provide a better account of macroeconomic dynamics than models with real wage rigidities.     

Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform under Transition in Albania

Agricultural policy decision making in economies undergoing transition to market is in need of empirical tools for assessing the impact of alternative policy options. The econometric means available for such exercise, however, are limited for lack of data and structural breaks in economic behaviour. Synthetic, partial equilibrium, multi-market models offer a potential alternative. Such models have been used extensively, even in advanced economies, to offer valuable insights on the impact of alternative policy options. This paper shows the use of such a partial equilibrium, multi-market, synthetic-type model as a tool for agricultural policy analysis in a country in transition. The model is applied for Albania, a predominantly agricultural country that, after a period of centralism and autarky, aims to re-join the international economic system. The model, albeit its many limitations, offers some useful insights on the impact of alternative options available for agricultural price and trade policy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

MAJORITY RULE AND ELECTION MODELS

Abstract. This paper surveys the theoretical work that has been done on majority rule and economic models of elections. Section I provides an overview of the topic. Section 2 reviews the most important results that have been obtained about majority rule as an abstract collective choice rule. Section 3 identifies some alternative inferences that can be made from those results. Section 4 covers some models that include additional features that are present in political institutions where majority rule is used. Section 5 concentrates on some alternative election models and equilibrium concepts. Section 6 focuses on election models with abstentions and/or candidate uncertainty about voter behaviour. Section 7 compares and contrasts models where candidates are certain about what the voters'choices will be (contingent upon about the choices made by the candidates) and models where they are uncertain about those choices. Section 8 closes the survey by identifying some emerging areas of research.     

Predicting criminal recidivism using neural networks

Prediction of criminal recidivism has been extensively studied in criminology with a variety of statistical models. This article proposes the use of neural network (NN) models to address the problem of splitting the population into two groups — non-recidivists and eventual recidivists — based on a set of predictor variables. The results from an empirical study of the classification capabilities of NN on a well-known recidivism data set are presented and discussed in comparison with logistic regression. Analysis indicates that NN models are competitive with, and may offer some advantages over, traditional statistical models in this domain.     

Partnership duration and concurrent partnering: implications for models of HIV prevalence

Researchers and policy makers have argued that long-duration concurrent relationships promote the spread of HIV. The concurrency hypothesis proposes that concurrent partnering, particularly as manifested in formal and informal polygyny, is a primary contributor to the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigate claims that agent-based models of concurrent partnering support this hypothesis. Specifically, we explore how assumptions about the duration and network structure of sexual partnerships affect the results of agent-based models of HIV propagation. We offer new support for the contention that long-duration concurrent partnering can be protective against HIV transmission rather than promoting it. Additionally, we argue that the focus on concurrency has misdirected attention away from the key role of exclusivity.

     

Network-centric business models for health,social care and wellbeing solutions in the internet of things

In this multiple case study we analyze solutions based on connected devices in the context of health, social care and wellbeing. Based on the consideration that a solution is a combination of services and products, we build on the notion that business models can be studied at a firm-level and also at a network-level. The network-level analysis is used to motivate the reasons why solutions emerging at the intersection of the healthcare and the ICT industries benefit from collaboration among different actors. We conclude that the firm- and the network-level development of business models provide alignment in the business network and are useful to establish the relation that technological component have with overall solutions. Our findings suggest that some component bring novelty in the final offer without affecting the ongoing operation, while other component aim at improving the internal working processes, with minimal effects on the final offer to end users. We discuss the benefits of a network-level perspective for each case.     

Economic insecurity,conservatism, and the crisis of environmentalism: 30 years of evidence

There is an ongoing scientific debate about how environmental concern develops in a population, and under which circumstances it might decline at some point. In this paper, by analysing thirty years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and political preferences in altering and addressing environmental perceptions in Germany, Europe's green leader. Results from correlated random-effects models reveal, inter alia, that economic insecurity and support for right-wing political parties significantly contribute to lowering environmental concern. Hence, policymakers ought to focus on economic insecurity in order to increase citizens' environmental concern and, eventually, bring an enhancement in pro-environmental behaviour as a result of the voters' political will.     

Unemployment dynamics and labour market tightness: An empirical evaluation of matching function models

The implications of matching function models for the relationship between labour market tightness and the transition probability into employment are summarized. These implications are then tested using monthly data for three Canadian provinces: British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. Testing methods use flexible regression techniques so as to reduce the effect of any extraneous restrictions. The results show rough concordance between theoretical assumptions and empirical facts. Evidence of non-linearity in the estimated relationships favours a search-theoretic model of labour markets over one based on queues and some quantitative results offer guidance to those using ‘calibrated’ search models in theoretical analysis.     

The impact of skills and performance on earnings: evidence from retail bankers in Portugal

This article contributes to the debate on wage flexibility by estimating the return to skills and performance for a sample of Portuguese retail bankers. If the relevance of skills in the contemporary workplace is unquestionable, their role as the main determinant of earnings is doubtful. The argument of this article is that firms are not adjusting individual wages according to information obtained from on-the-job appraisals subsequent to employment. The banks show a selective approach to rewarding skills and performance, and they still manage as an internal labour market. The idiosyncratic nature of skills may offer a partial explanation for the persistence of this model. However, the evidence points to the presence of hybrid models. While the return to organisational skills reinforces the role of specific skills, the return to cognitive skills suggests that there is competition around general skills in the banking industry.     

College Readiness: Are California Charter School Students Better Prepared?

Using US data from the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) I analyse student outcomes from Advanced Placement tests and Smarter Balanced Summative Assessments to determine whether charter school students display higher levels of college readiness. Using panel data from 2011–12 through 2014–15 for the Advanced Placement tests, I find a gain of between 10.8 and 21.0 percentage points for charter students on average over students attending traditional public schools. For the Smarter Balanced Assessment using school years 2014–15 and 2015–16, I again find that charter students outperform traditional public students on average with gains in all categories for both the English and the mathematics portions of the exam. The results of this study seem to offer some support for the view that offering choice in schooling tends to improve performance.     

Discrimination,technology and unemployment

I study the interaction between discrimination and investment using a directed search model where firms decide the capital intensity of their production technologies before being matched. Discrimination makes some workers cheap to hire. As a consequence, some firms might save on capital costs adopting labour intensive technologies. This framework allows one to reconcile search models with three well-known facts regarding the labour market outcomes of minority workers: low wages, high unemployment and occupational segregation. Furthermore, the model questions the role of equal pay legislation in reducing inequality since removing this restriction, i.e., allowing firms to post type-contingent wages, eliminates the negative effects of discrimination on investment and wages.     

Good Analytical Research

The purpose of this commentary is to address the issues raised by Ohlson from the point of view of analytical accounting research. The aim is not only to provide some input to young researchers who are going to publish good research using analytical methods, but also to give some hints to help users of analytical accounting research to understand and interpret the findings of this type of research. Ohlson has taken on a task of identifying a set of critical factors which are likely to lead to successful research. Good research is defined as research that makes an impression. Thus, it is not enough to get the research published – not even in a premier journal. The research should have an impact, the community should learn something. As Ohlson notes, there is enough ‘ordinary’ research. In my view this is the right attitude. Short-term optimization is also widespread in the research community and that is not what we should strive for. With the objective in place, I will continue to analyze the question in relation to analytical research. I start out discussing the aim of analytical research by providing a few examples of good models. The first is the Feltham-Ohlson model and the second is the agency model. Both are simple and elegant models dealing with difficult issues. The analysis proceeds to characterize good models. A good model is a simple model that zooms in on the problem under scrutiny. It is a ‘minimal’ model that contains the problem and nothing outside the problem. I then proceed to characterize good research in an analytical framework. This is research that tackles a problem that is of interest to the users and the researcher. In this process I also identify current notable analytical research. Finally, I contrast this to the recommendations of Ohlson.     

保税物流通关效率研究

研究目的是为了提升保税物流效率。希望能够影响或给政府部门一定的启示,深入全面评估目前的监管模式和运作流程是否可以更便利,考虑是否可以节省社会经营成本,使海关等口岸管理部门有限的资源能够最大限度地保证物流的畅通。通过全面分析保税物流的发展现状,对影响保税物流通关效率的常见问题及海关的管理模式进行研究,开拓通关改革的思路;紧密结合通关的实际,应用定量计算和定性分析,提出＂虚拟转关＂和＂免税进口设备电子账册管理＂等改革建议。并密切结合企业实际运作的现实背景和结合海关法律与政策,应用了一线实际基础数据,对大通关的概念做了一定的阐述,研究了加工贸易监管模式改革可能性,提出了＂大通关＂的企望要在两方面突破：解放思想,创新海关保税物流监管理念;全国海关一盘棋。