Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

The impact of lead time on capital investments

We study equilibrium investment strategies of firms competing in stochastic dynamic market settings and facing two types of investment structures: investment with significant lead time (or time-to-build) and investment without (or minor) lead time. We investigate how investment behavior changes when investment is subject to time-to-build versus when it is not. We characterize equilibrium investment strategies under several information structures and compare results to the social optimum. We offer some new results. The model predicts that, controlling for demand, and production and investment costs, investments and outputs can be higher in progressive industries (which often exhibit time-to-build) than in fast-paced industries (where time-to-build is insignificant). Furthermore, for both investment types (investment with or without time-to-build) we offer a novel equilibrium in which firms incrementally invest. This behavior is driven by demand uncertainty and capacity constraints. Also, expected outputs are lower than Cournot outputs as firms face uncertainty. Moreover, the amount of uncertainty has different effects over investment types.     

Assessing the importance of measurement error in capital investment models

New developments in the economics of capital investment emphasize the role of financial variables. Econometric evidence on these hypotheses is potentially compromised by measurement error due to accounting conventions. The paper reviews new capital investment models and considers ways in which accounting procedures might lead to measurement error biases. Advances in errors-in-variables econometric models are employed to gauge the impact of measurement error on estimates of financial influences on capital investment. Cash-flow models appear to be especially susceptible to measurement error but q models seem fairly insensitive to measurement problems.     

R&D and Tobin's q in an emerging financial market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper aims at providing further evidence on the consequences of R&D investment on Tobin's q for firms publicly traded in an emerging financial market. Panel data methodology is applied using data for the manufacturing and computer firms listed in the Athens Stock Exchange, a market classified as emerging by the major securities analysts, for the period 1996–2004. The empirical findings show first, that the Greek firms' R&D investment effect on the market value of a firm is consistent with other US and European studies. Second, the impact of the R&D investment on the market value is higher for small firms. The findings of this paper may have significant industrial and technological policy implications for other emerging markets sharing similar characteristics to Greece. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

要素市场扭曲、区域差异与R&D投入

本文利用要素市场扭曲指数及中国高技术产业1997～2009年省际面板数据,考察了要素市场扭曲对R&D投入的影响及区域差异。结果表明,要素市场扭曲对R&D资本投入和R&D人力投入有着不同的影响,抑制了R&D资本投入增长,促进了R&D人力投入;而且其对两者的影响都存在着显著的区域差异。在此基础上,运用门槛检验方法对这种区域差异的影响因素进行了探讨,研究发现,在区域经济发展水平、人力资本水平、财政收入、产权结构和对外开放程度等因素的不同门槛值区间,要素市场扭曲对高技术产业R&D投入的影响程度和方向都存在着明显的差异。     

创投基金对中小企业价值的影响——基于深圳中小企业板的实证研究

被视为“中国未来纳斯达克”的深圳证券交易所中小板正日益吸引各方的关注。本文聚焦于创投基金对上市公司价值的影响,通过对具有创投股东背景的上市公司的企业市场价值、企业市场地位与企业财务绩效这几方面的实证分析。在通过有关数据的相关性分析和回归分析后,本文发现创投基金在财务绩效和市场地位两项企业价值指标方面对被投资企业相关性明显,从而得到了创投基金一定程度上能促进被投资企业的价值增长的结论。     

A re-examination of the q theory of investment using u.s. firm data

Investment models based on Tobin's q are theoretically appealing, but they have been an empirical disappointment when applied to aggregate time-series data. This paper explores two potential explanations for the poor empirical performance of q investment models, problems arising from aggregation and imperfect competition. The results suggest that aggregation is responsible for spurious evidence of dynamic misspecification and at least partially responsible for an upward bias in estimated adjustment costs. The evidence also suggests that imperfect competition in output markets may have an effect on the investment behaviour of some firms.     

Quantitative evaluation of contingent capital and its applications

A new type of bank regulatory capital, known as contingent capital, has emerged in tandem with discussions on the BASEL III regulatory framework but there is a lack of consensus on a standard valuation approach among those proposed so far. We think that the practical solution is to be able to price these instruments seamlessly and consistently with other existing derivatives. We propose a novel and practical ⿿convertible bond approach⿿ which is theoretically consistent with existing frameworks such as Black⿿Scholes and is conceptually and technically similar to the pricing models already being used in practice for convertible bonds and hybrid securities. Such a model is reasonable as all of these asset classes are hybrid equity-credit instruments and share many characteristics. Also, contingent capital through its unique mechanisms such as principal loss absorption, presents interesting risk scenarios which may not be readily apparent or may appear counterintuitive. Contingent capital may thus, at first sight, appear to carry obscure risks but, we show that by taking a careful quantitative approach, we can understand the characteristics of such instruments in a concise manner. Further, for discussing the pricing in terms of characteristics of the issuer, one in turn, needs a concise framework to describe those characteristics in terms of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio risk. Our framework describes CET1 ratio risk via three intuitive issuer parameters: target, volatility, and resilience. In spite of the exotic risks, an investment decision in contingent capital can be justified if a sufficient return is expected in compensation. In this paper, we present a valuation method based on hurdle Sharpe ratios that has direct implications for investment decision making in the context of expansion of investor's efficient frontier. We also demonstrate the usefulness of our framework as a daily pricing tool for market participants using empirical market data.We appreciate helpful comments from an anonymous referee and the editors of North American Journal of Economics and Finance. The view expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views and policies of Nomura Securities.     

A Bayesian estimator for stochastic frontier models with errors in variables

A Bayesian estimator is proposed for a stochastic frontier model with errors in variables. The model assumes a truncated-normal distribution for the inefficiency and accommodates exogenous determinants of inefficiency. An empirical example of Tobin??s Q investment model is provided, in which the Q variable is known to suffer from measurement error. Results show that correcting for measurement error in the Q variable has an important effect on the estimation results.     

Market Entry and Investment in Vietnam: Long Term Enticements and Short Term Hurdles: Evidence from British Investors

SUMMARY

Following the promulgation of a relatively progressive foreign investment law in late 1987-aimed at attracting western capital, technology, know-how and gaining access to global (and convertible currency) markets–Vietnam has gained a significant degree of interest amongst foreign companies. This paper profiles Vietnam's host country business environment, depicts the character of foreign direct investment so far undertaken (and its legislative background) before assessing the perceived attractions of the Vietnam host market, and the problems encountered by those intrepid firms that have entered this relatively uncharted new market. The empirical evidence emanates from a survey conducted into the experiences of British companies operative in Vietnam between 1988 and 1993.     

Informal investors - A categorization,with policy implications

A number of studies concerning informal investors have been carried out over the last two decades. One main conclusion from previous research has been that the informal venture capital market is very heterogeneous, and that classifications for informal investors are needed in order to more accurately depict the informal venture capital market. In this paper we propose that the market could be divided in accordance with the informal investors' investment activity and competence. The study is based on a sample of 425 active informal investors, divided into four different categories: (1) Lotto investors; (2) Traders; (3) Analytical investors; and (4) Business angels. The empirical findings show that there are considerable differences between the four categories of informal investors; differences regarding the information sources used, the level of firm involvement, co-investing, investment horizons, and geographic preferences, to name some examples. As a consequence, each of the various informal investor types responds differently to private and public prospects or motivators. It is suggested, therefore, that the informal venture capital market could be more effectively analysed and depicted by using the proposed classifications and applying differing measures to each informal investor category.     

Retaining skilled employees: A human capital model with innovation and entrepreneurship

In his seminal paper, Becker argues that firms never invest in general human capital in a frictionless labor market. Nevertheless, empirical evidence shows the opposite. This paper sheds light on this puzzle by developing a principal–agent model with human capital investments. The novel feature of the model is that specific human capital increases the agent's probability to innovate. Innovation brings the opportunity of entrepreneurship, which means losing a skilled agent for the principal. The results show that higher entrepreneurial income increases the risk of employee departure and the principal may use general human capital investment for retention.     

利用风险投资发展广西现代农业的机遇与途径

从全国范围来看,利用风险投资发展现代农业不但有理论研究层面的支撑,而且已在实践上取得了较大的成效。广西在农业资源方面具有明显的优势:产业化日趋成熟,龙头企业发展水平持续提高,加上政府对农业的支持力度不断加大,这些为风险资本进入广西农业提供了较大的机遇。针对风险投资对农业投资的新形势和广西风险投资发展情况,主张从加大对风险投资市场培育的力度和提升农业利用风险投资的能力两个方面来推进广西现代农业的发展。     

Corporate groups,liquidity, and overinvestment by Belgian firms quoted on the Brussels stock exchange

For a sample of large Belgian non-financial firms quoted on the Brussels stock exchange, it is found that investment of firms borrowing on an internal capital market is not determined by internal cash flow, while cash flow has a significant effect on investment for the other firms in the sample. Further analysis indicates that the cash flow effect is caused by overinvestment, not by financing constraints. No evidence is found that firms borrowing on an internal capital market in turn transfer surpluses of funds to other group members by investing in financial fixed assets. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment and Uncertainty: A Theory‐based Empirical Approach*

This paper provides empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of uncertainty on firm‐level capital accumulation. A novelty in this paper is that the firm‐level uncertainty indicator is motivated and derived from a theoretical model, the neoclassical investment model with time to build. This model also serves as the base for the empirical work, where an error‐correction approach is employed. I find a negative effect of uncertainty on capital accumulation, both in the short run and the long run. This outcome cannot be explained by the model alone. Instead, the results suggest that the predominant mechanism at work stems from irreversibility constraints.     

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

Uncertain outlays in time-to-build problems

In this paper we analyze investment projects in which there is uncertainty in the total investment cost in addition to uncertainty in the completed project value. We deal with an uncertain time-to-build. Uncertainties in investment cost are quite common in long-term, large-scale, path-breaking undertakings such as some R&D projects. We find that the inclusion of uncertainty in investment cost tends to mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty of completed project value. The implications of the results are significant. First, when uncertainty of investment cost is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment will result; and second, the existence of uncertainty in investment cost will cause long-term projects to require larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment should occur.     

Restriction of Farm Ownership as Rent-seeking Behavior: Family Farmers Have It Their Way

A bstract . Restriction of foreign ownership of U.S. farmland has an obvious cost of foregone capital gains to farmers Yet their push to achieve state regulation of foreign investment in agricultural land has a sound economic basis. If required acreage expansion and high prices for land combine to force small, family farmers out of business, the value of their accumulated human capital falls precipitously, since it is soil specific With a large foreign demand for farmland which induces a tremendous rate of land price inflation , capital gains on their land swamp potential human capital losses. However, marginal participation in the U.S. farmland market by foreigners creates capital gains on land which are insufficient to compensate farmers for lost human capital, and creates a rationale for regulation The empirical results demonstrate that the pattern of legislative restrictions against foreign ownership of farmland is a function of the relative political power wielded by family farmers.     

“Do incentives matter to promote high technology-driven entrepreneurial activity?”

A productive human capital is a necessary but not sufficient condition for regional economic growth. An additional condition is the adequate allocation of talented people in innovative entrepreneurial activities, which according to previous literature have a higher social value than traditional ones. Using a large and representative sample of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) located in the Basque Autonomous Community (Spain), we empirically analyze, separately in manufacture and services, whether individual incentives and market conditions are aligned in such a way that the talent is properly allocated in innovative entrepreneurial activities. Through a novel use of existing empirical methods we find that (i) entrepreneurs operating in high-tech sectors have, on average, more entrepreneurial talent and private returns than their counterparts; and that (ii) entrepreneurial talent and private returns are positively and significantly correlated. These novel insights suggest that private and social incentives are adequately aligned.