Factor Utilization and Adjusted Productivity Estimates for the UK*

This paper derives series for capital utilization, labour effort and total factor productivity (TFP) for the UK from a general equilibrium model with variable utilization and labour adjustment costs. Capital utilization tracks survey‐based measures closely, but persistent movements in total hours worked mean our labour effort series is not as highly correlated with its comparators. Our estimated TFP series is less cyclical than the traditional Solow residual, although a weighted average of capital utilization and labour effort – aggregate factor utilization – and the Solow residual are not closely related.     

Capital-skill complementarity,productivity and wages: Evidence from plant-level data for a developing country

Different types of labor and capital inputs have varying productive contributions that are dependent on plant characteristics. We estimate such contributions and their underlying determinants, recognizing the interactions among labor and capital components that reflect their substitutability or complementarity, for Turkish manufacturing plants. We distinguish technical and non-technical labor, and structures, machinery and computer capital, as well as the shares of female workers and imported capital in our production function specification. We find capital-skill complementary for both machinery and computers; greater productive contributions and thus wages for skilled labor are associated with more machinery intensity and computer use. The reverse is true for unskilled labor, which is complementary only with capital structures. Our results suggest that synergies among skilled (technical) labor, computers, and machinery capital have productivity- and skilled wage-enhancing effects that could contribute to productivity convergence of developing toward developed countries, even with their differing industry and input composition.     

Productivity gaps and capacity utilization in the manufacturing sectors of five OECD-countries, 1963–1982

The purpose of this paper is to apply some novel features in the theory of productivity indexes to the measurement of productivity gaps. It advances the proposition that one reason for the persistence of productivity gaps might be that the methodology of measuring gaps does not separate shifts of the production function due to intercountry efficiency from shifts due to intercountry differences in capacity utilization.In this paper we calculate productivity gaps for four OECD countries relative to the U.S., adjusted for cyclical variations in capacity utilization for the period 1963–1982. The theoretical foundation of our measurement is based on a variable cost function approach with short-run fixity of capital. Without adjusting for differences in capacity utilization within the countries, productivity gaps are a mixture of differences in productivity and in capacity utilization.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through C. Morrison.     

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity and endogenous skill acquisition under technology and public expenditure shocks. We find that skilled and unskilled labour tax smoothing maintain quantitatively under externalities and exogenous shocks in skill acquisition, as well as when the relative skill supply is exogenously determined. We further find that the government finds it optimal to reduce both the size of the wedge between the marginal rates of substitution and transformation in skill attainment in the long-run and the standard deviation of this wedge over the business cycle. This is achieved by subsidising skill creation and taxing both types of labour income.     

The precious bane

Are natural resources harmful to growth? We address this question using a two-sector, endogenous growth model in which human capital is the engine of growth. By increasing the rewards to unskilled labor, natural resources make schooling more expensive. As long as the intertemporal elasticity of consumption substitution is not too high, this slows down human capital accumulation and growth. The presence of production spillovers from human capital, however, implies that a planner could react to a resource boom by increasing human capital accumulation even though the decentralized solution yields the exact opposite. The paper also shows that as the production complementarity between natural resources and unskilled labor declines, the growth effects of natural resources become increasingly sensitive to whether or not there is free trade in goods. The empirical evidence lends support to the main channel – natural resources to human capital to growth – that is suggested in the paper.     

Modelling the German system of vocational education

This paper aims at analyzing main features of the German vocational education. It builds on a simple model of firm specific human capital accumulation in case of learning by doing. A main result is a positive effect of government financed schooling on creating learning by doing jobs. This finding relies on simple strategic arguments and does not depend on long term labor contracts or any cross productivity effects between learning inside and outside the firm.     

Cyclicality in losses on bank loans

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.     

Accounting for wage and employment changes in the US from 1968–2000: A dynamic model of labor market equilibrium

In this article, we present a unified treatment of and explanation for the evolution of wages and employment in the US over the last 30 years. Specifically, we account for the pattern of changes in wage inequality, for the increased relative wage and employment of women, for the emergence of the college wage premium and for the shift in employment from the goods to the service-producing sector. The underlying theory we adopt is neoclassical, a two-sector competitive labor market economy in which the supply of and demand for labor of heterogeneous skill determines spot market skill rental prices. The empirical approach is structural. The model embeds many of the features that have been posited in the literature to have contributed to the changing US wage and employment structure including skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarity, changes in relative product-market prices, changes in the productivity of labor in home production and demographics such as changing cohort size and fertility.     

Temporary contracts and labour productivity in Spain: a sectoral analysis

This paper analyses the impact on sectoral labour productivity growth caused by the increase in the use of temporary employment contracts in Spain over the period 1987–2000. With this aim, we estimate a production function model in which effective labour is represented by the shares of permanent, temporary and self-employed workers. Results suggest that productivity growth has been slowed down by the use of temporary contracts for regular jobs and that this has not been affected by compositional changes in activity over the period. However, this effect has only been detected in the manufacturing and energy sector, in contrast to low-technology low-human capital sectors like construction and hospitality.     

Bond market co-movements,expected inflation and the GBP-USD equilibrium real exchange rate

Since the end of the fixed rates in 1973 and after the European Monetary System (EMS) sterling dismissal in 1992, the value of the pound has undergone large cyclical fluctuations on average. Of particular interest to policy makers is the understanding of whether such movements are consistent with the lack or not of a correction mechanism to some long-run equilibrium. The purpose of the present study is to understand those dynamics, how the external value of the British sterling (GBP) relative to the US dollar (USD) evolved during the recent floating experiences, and what have been the driving forces. In this paper we assume the real exchange rate to be determined by forces relating to the goods and capital market in a general equilibrium framework. This entails testing the purchasing power parity (PPP) and the uncovered interest parity (UIP) together. In doing so, we model inflation expectations explicitly. Our findings have two important implications, both for monetary policy. First, we show that some of the observed changes in the bilateral real exchange rate cannot be solely attributed to changes in inflation rates, but, also to capital markets. Secondly, we find a weaker behavior of the US bond rate on international markets, possibly explained by the special US dollar status of World reserve currency.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a short-run production model: Theory and an empiral application

In order to be consistent with production theory, empirical factor demand analyses must transform capital stock data into information about the flows of capital services derived from the stock. This requires information about the utilization rate which is, however, not generally available. This paper develops and estimates a model of a capital using firm that one can implement using observable data. Capital utilization and depreciation are endogenous and are determined by profit maximization. The consistency of the model with the data is tested by checking whether the estimated parameters satisfy the regularity conditions imposed by the theory. The validity of the customary specification of an exogenous, price-independent rate of depreciation is also tested.     

Bank capital regulation,loan contracts,and corporate investment

This paper studies the link between bank capital regulation, bank loan contracts and the allocation of corporate resources across firms’ different business lines. Credit risk is lower when firms write contracts that oblige them to invest mainly into projects with highly tangible assets. We argue that firms have an incentive to choose a contract with overly safe and thus inefficient investments when intermediation costs are increasing in banks’ capital-to-asset ratio. Imposing minimum capital adequacy for banks can eliminate this incentive by putting a lower bound on financing costs.     

会计职业道德角度下股票回购的风险分析

在经济深化改革的今天,随着资本市场的逐渐完善,股票回购作为企业价值管理的方式成为诸多学者研究的对象。股票回购这一行为更多地被企业用来提升自身价值、扩宽融资渠道、提高现金流利用效率、降低代理成本以及优化资本结构。但由于信息不对称、内部监管的漏洞以及法律制度的缺失导致股票回购存在潜在风险。论文基于会计职业道德的角度对股票回购行为中存在的风险进行分析,从而使得股票回购可以持续作为企业价值提高的方式。     

Misallocation,informality, and human capital: Understanding the role of institutions

The aim of this paper is to quantify the role of formal-sector institutions in shaping the demand for human capital and the level of informality. We propose a firm dynamics model where firms face capital market imperfections and costs of operating in the formal sector. Formal firms have a larger set of production opportunities and the ability to employ skilled workers, but informal firms can avoid the costs of formalization. These firm-level distortions give rise to endogenous formal and informal sectors and, more importantly, affect the demand for skilled workers. The model predicts that countries with a low degree of debt enforcement and high costs of formalization are characterized by relatively lower stocks of skilled workers, larger informal sectors, low allocative efficiency, and measured TFP. Moreover, we find that the interaction between entry costs and financial frictions (as opposed to the sum of their individual effects) is the main driver of these differences. This complementarity effect derives from the introduction of skilled workers, which prevents firms from substituting labor for capital and in turn moves them closer to the financial constraint.     

房地产公司应对房地产周期策略研究

本文经过阐述房地产市场的周期波动特点,针对房地产企业如何通过资本动作、土地储备、业务组合的经营策略应对房地产市场的周期性波动规律进行探讨。     

企业智力资本价值创造行为研究——兼论智力资本与企业价值的相关性

从智力资本投资和资本累计的视角,对智力资本及其各要素的价值创造行为进行分析,构建企业智力资本价值创造的会计度量模式,并对智力资本与企业价值的相关性进行实证检验,结果显示：智力资本是企业价值创造中的核心要素;企业智力资本的形成是企业长期投资不断累积的结果;以现金流量作为企业价值度量指标可以很好地解释智力资本的价值创造性,在企业价值创造过程中智力资本各要素的作用各不相同。     

Endogenous technology and sectoral productivity: Chile 1962–1982

The choice of sectoral productivity in Chile is studied within the choice of technique approach. The choice of production techniques is an economic problem in that the techniques implemented at any time reflect the prevailing economic environment, as well as its history. Incorporating this choice in the analysis adds another channel through which market conditions can influence productivity while neglecting this simple fact leads to a distorted view of the production process. This view of production is applied here to present an econometric framework for estimating sectoral production functions. The derived function has the form of a Cobb-Douglas function, but its coefficients are allowed to vary in response to the economic environment and to factor utilization. The results show the important effect that macro, external, and institutional shocks have on the level and cyclical behavior of productivity.The editor of this paper was Jaime de Melo.     

Information structures and viable price systems

A dynamic model of capital/financial markets is developed. A surprise is a stopping time that is not foretellable. We show that if agents' preferences exhibit a kind of time complementarity, then between ex-dividend dates a viable price system can make discrete changes only at surprises. Under the same preference condition, when the information in the economy can be modeled by a Brownian motion, a viable price system is an Itô process between ex-dividend dates. The martingle characterization of a viable price system originated by Harrison and Kreps (1979) is extended to our economy. This martingale result is independent of the time complementarity of preferences alluded to above.     

A Non‐parametric Examination of Capital–Skill Complementarity*

This paper uses non‐parametric kernel methods to construct observation‐specific elasticities of substitution for a balanced panel of 73 developed and developing countries to examine the capital–skill complementarity hypothesis. The exercise shows some support for capital–skill complementarity, but the strength of the evidence depends upon the definition of skilled labour and the elasticity of substitution measure being used. The added flexibility of the non‐parametric procedure is also capable of uncover ing that the elasticities of substitution vary across countries, groups of countries and time periods.     

The New Keynesian Model and the Euro Area Business Cycle*

This paper describes a New Keynesian model incorporating transactions‐facilitating money and a time‐to‐build constraint into endogenous capital accumulation. The calibrated New Keynesian model performs almost as well as the estimated vector autoregressive model in replicating Euro area cyclical correlations between key variables such as output and inflation, although it fares less well in predicting the procyclical dynamics of nominal interest rates. The presence of a time‐to‐build requirement in the model helps to improve its fit to Euro area data, whereas the role of transactions‐facilitating money is much less important. Impulse–response functions and a decomposition of variance complete the analysis.