隐性资本结构与公司治理优化的关系分析

隐性契约的存在使得显性资本结构的背后隐藏着不受关注的隐性资本结构,隐性资本结构是企业在考虑顾客以及中小股东等利益相关者的基础上,对企业隐性负债及隐性股权的安排。本文在已有研究的基础上,分析了隐性资本结构的构成,探讨了隐性资本结构与显性资本结构的互动关系,并提出了基于隐性资本结构的完善现有公司治理框架的建议。     

Psychological and implied contracts in organizations

Two forms of unwritten contracts derive from relations between organizations and their members. Psychological contracts are individual beliefs in a reciprocal obligation between the individual and the organization. Implied contracts are mutual obligations characterizing interactions existing at the level of the relationship (e.g., dyadic, interunit). Employee/employer relations and changing conditions of employment give rise to issues not addressed in conventional transaction-oriented models of motivation and individual responses. The development, maintenance, and violation of psychological and implied contracts are described along with their organizational implications.Promise is most given when least is said. (George Chapman,Hero and Leander, 1598)     

Bargaining over incentive contracts

The incentive contract theory assumes that the principal holds all of the bargaining power. By introducing alternating offers and strategic delay into the nonlinear pricing model, we relax this assumption and analyze an infinite-horizon contract bargaining game. We attain either the “sequential separating equilibrium” or the “simultaneous separating equilibrium”, depending on the parameter values. We prove the existence and the uniqueness of the equilibrium, and claim that multidimensionality and strategic delay can help resolve the multiple equilibria problem of bargaining theory. When the time between offers approaches zero, either quantity distortion or delay persists.     

Temporarily asymmetric information and labour contracts

Under the assumption that workers are more heavily credit rationed than firms, the standard model of testing and self-selection in the labour market is extended. The two main findings are that ex post inefficient termination may be used as a self-selection device and that when workers can be of more than two different productivities, only the best worker should be overpaid.     

城市合同:法国区域治理的经验与启示

在以多中心、平等治理及和谐关系为特征的城市合同治理方式的推动下,法国构建了世界上较为成熟与成功的善治模式,体现了当今社会对善治的系列要求。法国区域治理所采用的城市合同治理模式,具有以下三点启示意义:即有计划、有步骤的市场分权是实施城市合同的必要条件和有效途径;跨界治理机构的协调参与是城市合同有效进行的保障;城市合同是有效处理区域公共治理主体间利益矛盾冲突关系的基础。     

Stable many-to-many matchings with contracts

We consider several notions of setwise stability for many-to-many matching markets with contracts and provide an analysis of the relations between the resulting sets of stable allocations for general, substitutable, and strongly substitutable preferences. Apart from obtaining “set inclusion results” on all three domains, we introduce weak setwise stability as a new stability concept and prove that for substitutable preferences the set of pairwise stable matchings is nonempty and coincides with the set of weakly setwise stable matchings. For strongly substitutable preferences the set of pairwise stable matchings coincides with the set of setwise stable matchings.     

隐性教育与大学英语课堂教学

随着隐性教育研究的深入,人们开始探讨教学各个方面的隐性资源开发。本文从隐性教育的概念和特征出发,结合大学英语教学的现状,提出隐性教育对大学英语教学的几点启示,以便更好的促进英语课堂教学,提高教学效率。     

A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.     

Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the termination of collective bargaining contracts

In 1984 the Supreme Court ruled that employers can unilaterally break an existing collective bargaining contract upon filing a chapter 11 bankruptcy petition. This ruling changed both the contractual responsibilities of the employer to honor the collective bargaining agreement and the rights that workers have under the National Labor Relations Act. The purpose of this article is to show the conditions under which a Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding will lead to the termination of a labor contract. Our results suggest that (a) legal rulings that reduce the costs of bankruptcy will increase the number of contractual dissolutions and (b) a Chapter 11 bankruptcy is more likely to occur when a firm operates in a climate of uncertain expectations.     

The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach

Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.     

WILL BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE EURO AREA CONVERGE? A CRITICAL SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH

Abstract.  This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.     

GDP Estimates: Rationality Tests and Turning Point Performance

The reliability of BEA’s estimates, as measured by the magnitude and pattern of revisions, is highly important to economic policy-making and business decisions. We find evidence that the revisions are partially predicable using contemporaneously available information for the current quarterly estimates of GDP. Information about national income is found to significantly supplement the information found in the final current quarterly estimates of GDP in explaining the revisions to the latest-available estimates of GDP. However, there is little evidence of the predictability of revisions in GDI or national income. Finally, both the advance and final current quarterly estimates are found to do a reliable job of measuring GDP and GDI around cyclical peaks, but a less reliable job around cyclical troughs, the declines preceding the troughs are overstated and the upturns after the troughs are understated. An earlier and somewhat expanded version of this paper, “Revisions, Rationality, and Turning Points in GDP,” was presented at the session “Tracking the Turning Points in the Economy,” AEA meetings January 3–5 2003, Washington DC. It is available in the “working papers” section of BEA’s web site, www.bea.gov     

Fairness in supply chain contracts: A laboratory study

Various contracts can be designed to coordinate a simple supplier–retailer channel, yet the contracts proposed in prior research and tested in a laboratory setting do not perform as standard theory predicts. The supplier, endowed with all bargaining power, can neither fully coordinate the channel nor extract all of the channel profit. We report on a sequence of laboratory experiments designed to separate possible causes of channel inefficiency. The three causes we consider are inequality aversion, bounded rationality, and incomplete information. It turns out that all three affect human behavior. Inequality aversion has by far the most explanatory power regarding retailers’ behavior. Incomplete information about the retailer's degree of inequality aversion has the most explanatory power in regards to the suppliers’ behavior. Bounded rationality affects both players, but is of secondary importance.     

Progress billing method of accounting for long-term construction contracts

This article questions the reliability of the amount of revenue recognized in the percentage of completion （POC） method of revenue recognition in construction industry and recommends a new method based on the progress billing which is more reliable. The most commonly used method of revenue recognition in the construction industry is the percentage of completion method （POC）, where the revenue is recognized on the basis of the percentage of work completed. The calculation of percentage of work completed is made on the basis of the cost incurred for the contract work during the financial period and the cost required for completion of the work as estimated by the contractor. Here, the acceptance of the product by the buyer （contractee） is not involved in recognizing the revenue. The reliability of the amount of revenue and its collectability can be assured only when the buyer accepts the product. The approval of the progress bill by the contractee is needed to assure the reliability and collectability and it must be the event that triggers the recognition of revenue.     

Self-employment and business cycle persistence: Does the composition of employment matter for economic recoveries?

Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries, and tends to expand during downturns through higher inflows from unemployment. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower cyclical output persistence. I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or salaried employed. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster economic recoveries. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers explain the contrasting cyclical dynamics. The model successfully captures the cyclical patterns of self-employment and the relationship between self-employment and output persistence in the data.     

LONG DARK SHADOWS OR INNOVATIVE SPIRITS? THE EFFECTS OF (SMOOTHING) BUSINESS CYCLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract It is argued that fiscal policy can play a part in preventing a possible downward spiral or be instrumental in achieving a higher long‐term path of growth. Never before has this argument been advanced as frequently as in the current economic crisis. However, the economic literature – an overview of which is given here – does not provide an unambiguous answer, either theoretically or empirically, to the question of the relationship between (the smoothing of) cyclical fluctuations and long‐term growth. In this context, two main contrasting explanatory paradigms can be identified: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and the learning by doing hypothesis. Even if it were possible to identify the relationship more clearly on this basis, it is important not to lose sight of the problems associated with the real‐time assessment of the current economic situation, time lags and political economic incentives even in difficult times.     

Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical?

This paper explores the hypothesis that the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic variables vary with expansions and contractions. Graphical techniques and generalized predictive tests for structural stability are used to identify and test patterns of changing seasonality. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the power of the tests against interesting alternatives. The empirical results suggest that seasonal patterns are unstable and that in many cases changes are linked to the stages of the business cycle. The forecasting costs incurred by treating seasonality as constant are discussed and evaluated.