The (un)importance of unemployment fluctuations for the welfare cost of business cycles

This paper studies the cost of business cycles within a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. We endogenously link both the cyclical fluctuations and the mean level of unemployment to the aggregate business cycle risk. The key result of the paper is that business cycles are costly: fluctuations over the cycle induce a higher average unemployment rate since employment is nonlinear in the job-finding rate and the past unemployment rate. We show this analytically for a special case of the model. We then calibrate the model to U.S. data. For the calibrated model, too, business cycles cause higher average unemployment; the welfare cost of business cycles can easily be an order of magnitude larger than Lucas's (1987) estimate. The cost of business cycles is the higher the lower the value of nonemployment is, or, equivalently, the lower is the disutility of work. The ensuing cost of business cycles rises further when workers' skills depreciate during unemployment.     

Firm–bank credit network,business cycle and macroprudential policy

We present an agent-based model to study firm–bank credit market interactions in different phases of the business cycle. The business cycle is exogenously set, and it can give rise to various scenarios. Compared to other models in this literature strand, we improve the mechanism according to which the dividends are distributed, including the possibility of stock repurchase by firms. In addition, we locate firms and banks over a space and firms may ask credit to many banks, resulting in a complex spatial network. The model reproduces a long list of stylized facts and their dynamic evolution as described by the cross-correlations among model variables. The model allows us to test the effectiveness of rules designed by the current financial regulation, such as the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer. We find that the effectiveness of this rule changes in different business cycle environments and this should be considered by policy makers.

     

Unemployment and the business cycle in a small open economy: G.M.M. estimation and testing with French data

What is a relevant model for the European business cycle? In this paper, the empirical performances of three models are compared: a canonical Walrasian R.B.C. framework, its extension to the case of a small open economy, and a version of this model with search and wage bargaining on the labor market. Structural parameters of the models are estimated using G.M.M. and their abilities to reproduce the French business cycle, taken as representative of the European business cycle, are tested. Only the small open economy with unemployment is able to generate theoretical moments that match their empirical counterparts.     

Employed and Unemployed Job Seekers and the Business Cycle

The job search literature suggests that on‐the‐job search reduces the probability of un employed people finding jobs. However, there is little evidence that employed and unemployed job seekers are similar or apply for the same jobs. We compare employed and unemployed job seekers in their individual characteristics, preferences over working hours, job‐search strategies and employment histories, and identify how differences vary over the business cycle. We find systematic differences which persist over the business cycle. Our results are consistent with a segmented labour market in which employed and unemployed job seekers are unlikely to directly compete with each other for jobs.     

On the cyclicality of unemployment: Resurrecting the participation margin

This paper considers a real business cycle model with search frictions in the labor market and labor supply which is elastic along the participation margin. Previous authors have found that such models generate counterfactually procyclical unemployment and a positively sloped Beveridge curve. This paper presents a calibrated model which succeeds at generating countercyclical unemployment and a negatively sloped Beveridge curve, despite the presence of a participation margin.     

Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies

Despite the econometric advances of the last 30 years, the effects of monetary policy stance during the boom and busts of the stock market are not clearly defined. In this paper, we use a structural heterogeneous vector autoregressive (SHVAR) model with identified structural breaks to analyse the impact of both conventional and unconventional monetary policies on U.S. stock market volatility. We find that contractionary monetary policy enhances stock market volatility, but the importance of monetary policy shocks in explaining volatility evolves across different regimes and is relative to supply shocks (and shocks to volatility itself). In comparison to business cycle fluctuations, monetary policy shocks explain a greater fraction of the variance of stock market volatility at shorter horizons, as in medium to longer horizons. Our basic findings of a positive impact of monetary policy on equity market volatility (being relatively stronger during calmer stock market periods) are also corroborated by analyses conducted at the daily frequency based on an augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model of realised volatility (HAR-RV) and a multivariate k-th order nonparametric causality-in-quantiles framework. Our results have important implications both for investors and policymakers.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.     

Endogenous business cycle propagation and the persistence problem: The role of labor-market frictions

Contrasting sharply with a recent trend in DSGE modeling, we propose a business cycle model where frictions and shocks are chosen with parsimony. The model emphasizes a few labor-market frictions and shocks to monetary policy and technology. The model, estimated from U.S. quarterly postwar data, accounts well for important differences in the serial correlation of the growth rates of aggregate quantities, the size of aggregate fluctuations and key comovements, including the correlation between hours and labor productivity. Despite its simplicity, the model offers an answer to the persistence problem (Chari et al., 2000) that does not rely on multiple frictions and adjustment lags or ad hoc backward-looking components. We conclude modern DSGE models need not embed large batteries of frictions and shocks to account for the salient features of postwar business cycles.     

Estimating contract indexation in a Financial Accelerator Model

This paper addresses the positive implications of indexing risky debt to observable aggregate conditions. These issues are pursued within the context of the celebrated financial accelerator model of Bernanke et al. (1999). The principal conclusions include: (1) the estimated level of indexation is significant, (2) the business cycle properties of the model are significantly affected by this degree of indexation, (3) the importance of investment shocks in the business cycle depends upon the estimated level of indexation, and (4) although the data prefers the financial model with indexation over the frictionless model, they have remarkably similar business cycle properties for non-financial exogenous shocks.     

Can boundedly rational sellers learn to play Nash?

How does Nash pricing compare to pricing with adaptive sellers using reinforcement learning (RL)? We consider a market game similar to Varian’s model (Am Econ Rev 70:651–659, 1980) with two types of consumers differing by the size of their fixed sample search rule and derive the Nash search equilibrium (NSE) strategy (the density, the mean and the variance of the posted price distribution). Our findings are twofold. First, we find that the RL price distribution does not converge in a statistical sense to the NSE one except when competition is à la Bertrand. Second, we show that the qualitative properties of the NSE with respect to a change in buyers‘ search behavior are still valid for the RL distribution. The average price and the variance of both price distributions exhibit similar variations to a change in buyers’ search.     

Market reforms in the time of imbalance

We study the consequences of product and labor market reforms in a two-country model with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions. We focus on the role of business cycle conditions and external constraints at the time of reform implementation (or of a credible commitment to it) in shaping the dynamic effects of such policies. Product market reform is modeled as a reduction in entry costs and takes place in a non-traded sector that produces services used as input in manufacturing production. Labor market reform is modeled as a reduction in firing costs and/or unemployment benefits. We find that business cycle conditions at the time of deregulation significantly affect adjustment. A reduction of firing costs entails larger and more persistent adverse short-run effects on employment and output when implemented in a recession. By contrast, a reduction in unemployment benefits boosts employment and output by more in a recession compared to normal times. The impact of product market reforms is less sensitive to business cycle conditions. Credible announcements about future reforms induce sizable short-run dynamics, regardless of whether the announcement takes place in normal times or during an economic downturn. Whether the immediate effect is expansionary or contractionary varies across reforms. Finally, lack of access to international lending in the wake of reform can amplify the costs of adjustment.     

An exploratory study of RFID adoption in the retail sector

We use a search procedure called content analysis to determine the benefits of RFID in the retail sector. Content analysis classifies textual material, such as academic articles, and reduces them to manageable data. We find that the key RFID retailer benefits are better management of inventory, improved security, better operational efficiency, and reduced cost. We also find the key RFID business processes to deal with, for example, tracking and tracing. Through hypothesis testing and correlations, we discover strong relationships between retailer benefits and RFID business processes, and that better management of inventory is a reason why RFID is being used by retailers.     

Revolutionary innovation and the incumbent business: Patterns of relationship and coping strategies

Revolutionary innovations bring about drastically new ways of doing business that potentially challenge the dominance and even the survival of many powerful incumbent firms. The choice of the incumbent firms’ strategies in coping with a revolutionary innovation depends on the specific patterns of relationship between the revolutionary innovation and the incumbent firms’ core business, be it substitutive, complementary, or parallel. In the situation of a substitutive relationship, the incumbent firms could exit from the incumbent business through swift divesting or gradual harvesting before it is eventually displaced or eroded. In a complementary relationship, the incumbents could absorb the innovation into the incumbent business by embracing the innovation that enables them to add entirely new functions to their incumbent business or assimilating the innovation to enhance the value of the incumbent business. In a parallel relationship, the revolutionary innovation either results in the retrenchment of the incumbent business or leaves it undisturbed, which, respectively, calls for specializing in certain niches of the incumbent business or further solidifying the incumbent business. In addition to the above coping strategies focusing primarily on the incumbent business, the incumbent firms also need to deal simultaneously with the new businesses inspired and propelled by the revolutionary innovation. They could fend off the potential disruptions of the innovation by engaging in a competitive fight in the market domain or a nonmarket fight in the sociopolitical domain. They could also enter those new businesses through greenfield entry or merger and acquisition.     

Determinants of European stock market integration

We analyse the determinants of stock market integration among EU member states for the period 1999–2007. First, we apply bivariate DCC-MGARCH models to extract dynamic conditional correlations between European stock markets, which are then explained by interest rate spreads, exchange rate risk, market capitalisation, and business cycle synchronisation in a pooled OLS model. By grouping the countries into euro area countries, “old” EU member states outside the euro area, and new EU member states, we also evaluate the impact of euro introduction and the European unification process on stock market integration. We find a significant trend toward more stock market integration, which is enhanced by the size of relative and absolute market capitalisation and hindered by foreign exchange risk between old member states and the euro area. Interest rate spreads and business cycle synchronisation are also significant factors in explaining equity market integration.     

Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth

This paper studies the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth for the U.S. economy. Measures of co-movements in the frequency domain indicate that co-movements between variables differ strongly according to the frequency. First, long-term and business cycle co-movements are larger than short-term co-movements. Second, co-movements are negative in the short and long run, but positive over the business cycle. A New Keynesian model that combines nominal rigidity on the goods market (sticky prices) and real rigidity on the labor market (fair wages) is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the observed co-movements both in the long term and over the business cycle. However, the model fails to explain the short-term co-movements.     

Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

Keynesian impulses versus Solow residuals: identifying sources of business cycle fluctuations

We employ a neoclassical business‐cycle model to study two sources of business‐cycle fluctuations: marginal efficiency of investment shocks, and total factor productivity shocks. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their magnitudes; from these estimates, posterior distributions of the two shocks are obtained. The postwar US experience suggests that both shocks are important in understanding fluctuations, but that total factor productivity shocks are primarily responsible for beginning and ending recessions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diversification discount,information rents,and internal capital markets

While many existing studies report that corporate diversification destroys shareholder value, several recent studies challenge these findings. Schoar [Schoar, A. (2002). Effects of corporate diversification on productivity. The Journal of Finance, 57, 2379?2403] finds that plants in conglomerates are more productive than those in comparable single-segment firms, although conglomerates are traded at discounts. Villalonga [Villalonga, B. (2004a). Diversification discount or premium? New evidence from the business information tracking services. The Journal of Finance, 59, 479–506; Villalonga, B. (2004b). Does diversification cause the “diversification discount”. Financial Management, 33, 5?27] employs a more comprehensive database and statistical techniques than those used in the prior studies, and shows that there is a diversification premium, rather than discount. This paper develops a model that highlights the costs and benefits of corporate diversification. The diversified firm trades off the benefits of more efficient resource allocation through its internal capital market against the costs of information rents to division managers, which are necessary for effective workings of the internal capital market. We provide an argument supporting Schoar's findings, and identify conditions under which there can be a diversification discount or a premium.     

A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle

This paper investigates to what extent a new Keynesian, monetary model with the addition of a microfounded, non-Walrasian labor market solely based on union bargaining is able to replicate key aspects of the business cycle. The presence of a representative union offers an explanation for two features of the cycle. First, it generates an endogenous mechanism which produces persistent responses to both supply and demand shocks. Second, labor unionization reduces the elasticity of marginal costs to output. This leads to lower inflation volatility. Model simulations show that the unionized framework can better reproduce European business cycle data than can a model with a competitive labor market.     

Protestantism, Labor Force Participation, and Employment Across Countries

A bstract .   Using data from 80 countries, this article analyzes whether Protestant religion affects labor market outcomes. Controlling for the impact of labor market regulations, business regulations, the tax burden, the business cycle, the level of economic development, demographic and geographical conditions, wars, and the transition from planned to market economy as well as unobserved country and year effects, we find that countries in which the largest portion of the population practices Protestant religion have substantially higher labor force participation and employment rates, particularly among women. We obtain the same result for a subgroup of 19 industrial countries for which we have better data to control for the impact of labor market institutions and business cycle fluctuations.