Managing Economic and Virtual Economic Capital Within Financial Conglomerates

Abstract

In this paper we show how the optimal amount of economic capital can be derived such that it minimizes the economic cost of risk-bearing. The economic cost of risk-bearing takes into account the cost of the economic capital as well as the exposure to residual risk. In addition to the absolute problem of determining the amount of economic capital, we also consider the relative problem of how to establish the allocation of economic capital among subsidiaries. Because subsidiaries are juridical entities, they will also consider the absolute problem of economic capital allocation themselves. In an equilibrium situation, the relative allocation derived by the conglomerate and the absolute allocation derived by the subsidiaries coincide. We show that the diversification benefit that is typically obtained in a conglomerate construction creates a virtual economic capital for subsidiaries within the conglomerate. We show further that the approach we propose to solve the absolute problem of economic capital allocation also can be applied to the problem of optimal portfolio selection, extending the well-known Markowitz approach and providing a tool for management by economic capital.     

Firm Value,Information Problems and the Internal Capital Market

We examine how information problems between the firm and the investor affect the value of an internal capital market. While the extant literature finds that, on average, the diversified firm's access to an internal capital market is positively related to firm value, this paper finds that the results hold only for firms which face low levels of information problems. Firms facing the high levels of information problems realize no value from internal capital market access, consistent with the Jensen Free Cash Flow hypothesis. When information problems are large, agency costs dominate any savings that result from using an internal capital market to avoid selling under-priced securities in the external capital markets.     

对赌协议的价值判断与我国多层次资本市场的发展

对赌协议的合法性取决于其价值。从法经济学和商法学的角度分析,对赌协议具有创造效益的价值;从法理基础分析,对赌协议的调整机制具有其必要性和合理性价值;从对赌协议的调整机制分析,其具有保护私募股权投资基金的投资利益和激励企业家创造效益的价值;从对赌协议的法律性质分析,是一种具有股权激励和保值功能的射幸合同,具有合法性。认可对赌协议的合法地位并予以规制,对发展我国多层次资本市场具有重要意义。     

货币金融

2007年适度控制货币信贷总量；中国银行业对外资全面开放。     

资本市场

证监会六招完善并购重组规则；上证所发布实施公司债券上市规则。[第一段]     

企业所得税法最快2008年实施

十届全国人大常委会第二十五次会议决定，将企业所得税法草案提请十届全国人大五次会议审议。考虑到中国的会计年度和财政年度，企业所得税法最快要到2008年1月1日才能正式实施。     

Market Imperfections,Macroeconomic Conditions,and Capital Structure Dynamics: A Cross-Country Study

This article investigates how “systematic” adjustment costs proxied by market imperfections, and macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure dynamics in a cross-country setting. We document substantial variations in firms’ capital structure adjustments across countries and, particularly, over time. Consistent with adjustment costs impeding firms from rebalancing their capital structures, worse market imperfections are associated with slower speeds of adjustment (SOA) and larger leverage deviations. Intertemporally, capital structure adjustment is procyclical, with SOA increasing by 0.9 percentage point for a one-percentage-point increase in GDP growth rate. The procyclicality is attributable to good macroeconomic conditions mitigating market imperfections through channels of 1) facilitating free-ride restructuring and 2) uncertainty alleviation. Our investigation features a bootstrapping-based estimation method that addresses the mechanical mean reversion of leverage ratio.     

资本充足率、市值资产比例与银行风险

基于风险和回报的基本关系,本文检验了以会计指标为主要计量尺度的资本充足率和以市场指标为计量手段的市值资产比例是否能够代表银行风险。研究发现,会计指标在没有被操控的情况下可以预测银行风险。虽然资本充足率也能够反映银行风险,但市值资产比例对银行股价回报的解释力更强,尤其在危机时期。本文建议,监管机构依然可以坚持选用资本充足率这样的会计指标监控银行风险,同时辅以市场指标,因为中国资本市场受到人为因素和政策因素干扰较多,股票价格不一定如实反映内涵价值,还应该坚持以会计指标为主。     

Pierpont and the Capital Market

For almost forty years Trevor Sykes was one of the most recognizable business journalists in Australia. Sykes created his Pierpont character in February 1972 while writing for Australia's leading financial paper, the Australian Financial Review . Pierpont was a take on J. Pierpont Morgan, founder of the J. P. Morgan banking house. Sykes used his Pierpont column to research and reflect on the curious world of Australian business. Articles were mostly in narrative form, comprising an in-depth critique of one or more companies and written with more than a touch of humour. Over the years Pierpont garnered a large following, and it is therefore quite possible his musings influenced investors' beliefs about company fundamentals. We assess this possibility by examining the share price movements of companies around the time they found themselves featured in a Pierpont column. We extend previous work in this area by examining the market reaction to a popular columnist's writings published regularly over a lengthy period, and by implementing an extensive double-coding procedure that allows us to more finely and reliably partition trading recommendations based on the content of each column. In brief, we find evidence that stocks with positive coverage by Pierpont enjoyed abnormal returns averaging 6.4 per cent over thirty days around the publication date, while stocks with negative coverage suffered abnormal losses of 5.5 per cent. Trading volume was also affected.     

Market Timing and Capital Structure

It is well known that firms are more likely to issue equity when their market values are high, relative to book and past market values, and to repurchase equity when their market values are low. We document that the resulting effects on capital structure are very persistent. As a consequence, current capital structure is strongly related to historical market values. The results suggest the theory that capital structure is the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market.     

把握主动 稳步开放

积极稳妥地推进对外开放是中国资本市场发展中一项重要内容。在加入WTO后的5年过渡期里，我国证券行业全面履行了对外开放相关承诺，并在某些领域超出了承诺范围，取得了较大进展：一是积极推动建立中外合资证券经营机构，批准设立了23家合资基金管理公司和7家合资证券公司：二是在资本项下人民币不可自由兑换情况下，试行实施了合格境外机构投资者（QFII）制度，QFII的家数与投资额度不断上升，现已成为仅次于基金公司的第二大机构投资者；三是出台了相关政策，允许外资对完成股权分置改革的上市公司和股权分置改革后的新上市公司进行战略并购，持有一定比例的股权；四是强化了与境外证券期货监管机构、国际证监会组织及其他国际组织的交流与合作，并成为国际证监会组织的主席执行委员国；五是落实与香港、澳门更紧密的经贸关系安排（CEPA），加强区域证券业和资本市场合作发展，在从业人员专业资格、证券交易所开办分支机构等方面实现了突破。所有这些，对于一个还处于“新兴＋转轨”阶段的年轻市场而言，可以说是成果斐然。     

强基固本，坚定信心

一段时间以来,关于证券市场信心的讨论成为继人民币汇率之后又一大热点话题,业内人士多角度剖析了中国证券市场面临的困难,指出了问题的根源,贡献了自己的建议.我们发现,与上几次讨论不同的是,这次大讨论没有出现截然不同、针锋相对的观点,大家都是本着找出问题、解决问题,重塑市场信心的目的,着眼于增强证券市场吸引力,提出的问题和解决问题的思路都带有明显的建设性,面向市场发展未来.这从侧面反映,证券界专业人士和广大投资者面对"新兴加转轨"的中国证券市场,显得更加务实和成熟.     

浅析资本运营的市场环境

资本运营与商品市场、金融市场、劳动力市场、房地产市场、技术市场和信息市场等各类市场之间相互制约,相互促进。应协调好资本运营与市场的关系,合理配置资源,促进产业结构合理化,降低投资风险,促进资本增值,实现经济的协调、稳定和高速增长。     

机构投资者与资本市场波动

本文对机构投资者如何引起和加剧金融市场波动的原因进行了分析,这些原因既有机构投资者自身的投资行为方面的,也有委托-代理问题所引起的,还有由投资者推动的,以及由监管和制度设计方面的缺陷所造成的问题。本文还对国际机构投资者投资新兴市场所引起的金融动荡进行了分析,并对如何引导机构投资者向有利于金融市场稳定的方向发展提出了建议。     

Debt Reclassification and Capital Market Consequences

Abstract:  We provide initial evidence on the economic consequences of a relatively large, fully disclosed, and apparently purposeful reporting decision: the balance sheet classification of short-term obligations as long-term debt in accordance with Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 6 . We examine a sample of 1,684 American firm-year observations between the years 1989 and 2000 to determine whether reclassification is associated with debt-ratings and equity values. We find that reclassification increases the likelihood of a subsequent debt-rating downgrade. We also find that market value decreases with increases in the amount reclassified, and that equity value is higher after firms cease reclassifying short-term obligations as long-term debt, compared with other firm-years in the sample. Thus, changes in debt classification are empirically linked in predictable directions to subsequent changes in debt ratings and stock values. Taken together, our results show that debt classification is an important publicly-available indicator that may be useful to capital market participants. We discuss several research extensions including the implications of our findings to European companies that convert to IAS in 2005.     

Brand Values and Capital Market Valuation

Brand value estimates are significantly positively related to prices and returns, incremental to accounting variables. Questionable brand value estimate reliability underlies lack of financial statement recognition for brands. Findings suggest estimates are relevant and sufficiently reliable to be reflected in share prices. Simultaneous equations estimation reveals inferences are unaffected by potential bias resulting from simultaneity between brand value estimates and equity market value. Brand value estimates are positively associated with advertising expense, operating margin, and market share. Yet, brand value estimates provide significant explanatory power for prices incremental to these variables, and to recognized brand assets and analysts earnings forecasts.     

完善资本市场基础制度 促进资本市场高质量发展

本文围绕着习近平总书记在主持中共中央政治局第十三次集体学习时关于资本市场的重要论述,以及近期党中央、国务院关于资本市场改革发展的一系列决策部署,针对建设一个规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场,加强资本市场基础性制度建设,设立科创板并试点注册制是深化资本市场改革的突破口,充分发挥资本市场支持民营企业发展的积极作用,切实提高资本市场违法违规成本等问题,进行了全面解读和深入分析,并兼而提出政策建议。     

中国资本市场的边缘化危机

这是一场危机,我们看到了开头却看不到结局。中国资本市场发展正背离全球潮流历史会告诉人们未来。如果我们非要从历史的角度来考察金融结构的演变规律,洞察金融发展的某些蛛丝马迹的话,就会发现随着经济的增长与发展,全球金融市场上的参与者——银行、投资者和资金需求者之间的关系发生了深刻变化,这种相互关系的变化导致了金融结构的变迁——由银行主宰转变为以资本市场为主导的金融结构,社会资本脱媒现象愈来愈盛。20世纪早期,银行的大     

Cross-Subsidies, External Financing Constraints, and the Contribution of the Internal Capital Market to Firm Value

We examine the link between the excess value of a diversifiedfirm and the value of its internal capital market. Subsidiesto small financially constrained segments with good relativeinvestment opportunities significantly increase excess value,while transfers of resources from segments with good relativeinvestment opportunities significantly decrease excess value.Of interest is that subsidies to small financially constrainedsegments with poor relative investment opportunities also significantlyincrease excess value. However, there is little evidence thatthis result depends on the diversity of a firm's investmentopportunities. We conclude that financing constraints drivethe relationship between the internal capital market and firmvalue.