ANTIDUMPING POLICY IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY: POLITICAL DISCRETION OR TECHNICAL DETERMINATION

This paper demonstrates the prominent role of antidumping laws as an instrument of endogenous trade policy in the EC. In contrast with the U.S. where anti-dumping decisions are largely subject to technical determination and trade barriers result from protectionist rules, the EC application of antidumping laws provides protection through administrative discretion and political influence on administrators. Whereas political influence seems to have increased over time in the U.S., the results of our empirical analysis of the EC antidumping decisions in the 1980 to 1990 period indicate that it has been curbed by the increased formalization of the antidumping investigation in the EC in this period. The estimation results show, however, that the tightening impact of each of the three institutional changes during this period faded within two years.     

中美制造业双边贸易对美国相对工资差距的影响研究*

在新古典贸易理论一般均衡的框架之下,运用1997-2014年中美两国的投入产出、贸易和工资数据,本文定量考察了中美制造业产品的双边贸易同美国制造业相对工资差距的关系。结果发现,美国从中国的净进口对美国制造业非熟练劳动力和熟练劳动力相对工资差距扩大存在影响,但影响幅度较小,贸易并不是引起相对收入差距扩大的唯一原因。但随着中美双边制造业贸易的进一步发展,美中贸易对美国工资差距的影响可能越来越大,以保护非熟练劳动力为名对中国产品实施贸易限制的呼声将会更高。     

U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects

Abstract .  We study U.S. agricultural antidumping and countervailing duty cases from 1980 to 2005, and gauge the effectiveness of trade remedy law as a form of protection. The purpose is to measure the resulting investigation and trade diversion effects. Previous research on trade in manufactured products has shown that the domestic protection offered by AD and CV duties is largely offset by trade diversion. In contrast, we find that for agriculture, trade diversion is relatively unimportant. So AD and CVD cases are very effective forms of protection for U.S. agriculture.     

The impact of preferential trade agreements on the duration of antidumping protection

This paper examines the impact of preferential trade agreements on the duration of antidumping protection. We employ a two-step selection model where the first step accounts for the impact of membership in a preferential trade agreement on the original antidumping determination and the second step estimates the impact of membership in a preferential trade agreement on the duration of the measures. We find the duration of antidumping protection is about 17% shorter for preferential trade agreement members compared with targeted countries that are not preferential trade agreement members. The impact on duration depends largely on whether preferential trade agreements have rules related specifically to antidumping. Preferential trade agreements with rules are associated with a 28% reduction in the duration of protection, whereas the duration for preferential trade agreements without rules is not statistically different from the duration for non-preferential trade agreement countries. While the duration of antidumping measures against China is longer than for other countries, the impact of preferential trade agreement rules is robust to controlling for China.     

美国购油策略分析及对中国的启示

美国页岩油革命改变了美国原油贸易格局,使得美国进口原油品质趋于重质化,且地域来源趋于集中化。本文通过挖掘页岩油革命后美国原油进口策略转变的内在原因,提出美国国内页岩油需求与对加拿大原油进口之间存在互补效应,而与对欧佩克原油进口之间存在替代效应,并通过协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了美国页岩油需求和对各国原油进口的互动关系。本文的研究结果对中国的页岩油战略和中美原油贸易关系均有重要的政策启示。     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

显性比较优势:中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?

显性比较优势是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?文章基于美国对中国反倾销97起涉案产品样本,并引入非涉案395种10分位主要贸易品扩展样本,研究表明:(1)美国对中国产品反倾销当年主要集中在中国对美出口具有较强显性比较优势的涉案产品上;虽然遭受美国反倾销,但中国在35起涉案产品对美出口上仍保持着较强的显性比较优势,不过有27起涉案产品已丧失较强的显性优势。(2)扩展样本后各影响因素对美国对中国产品反倾销概率的影响程度减少,避免了样本选择的有偏性。相比来看,美国对中国产品j贸易逆差是美国ITC裁决行业损害、签发反倾销指令的最重要决定因素,是美国对中国产品反倾销的直接诱因。而显性比较优势只是影响因素之一,并不是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒。美国工业生产增长率下滑、失业率上升是其他影响因素,并且次贷危机也是重要影响因素。     

金融危机对美国对外贸易的影响及其传导

金融危机通过对进口的抑制和对出口的刺激改变了美国的对外贸易结构,这些影响首先传导到贸易收支账户.使美国的贸易收支状况得到改善;之后进一步传导到国民收入账户,减少了金融危机对美国经济增长的冲击.     

Protection with many sellers: An Application to Legislatures with Malapportionment

What effect, if any, does legislative malapportionment have on international trade protection? This paper argues that in malapportioned legislatures, such as the U.S. Senate, industries become over‐represented in a legislature if they are disproportionately located in small constituencies. As a result, industries that are disproportionately located in smaller constituencies are likely to receive greater protection from international trade. To argue this point theoretically, this paper develops a new model, combining legislative bargaining and a model of lobbying to study trade protection while allowing for a legislature with multiple legislators and differently sized constituencies. We then test the predictions of this new model using tariff votes from the U.S. Senate in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and a panel of tariffs and non‐tariff barriers to trade in the U.S. in the 1990s. Considerable support is found for the model's predictions. Industries concentrated in states where the population is low receive greater protection from imports.     

Intrafirm trade and the developing countries: an assessment of the data

The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.     

THE EFFECTS OF U.S.-CHINA TRADE ON EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION

This article investigates the impact of foreign competition from China on employment and wages in four U.S.-Mexico Border counties: Santa Cruz, Arizona; San Diego, California; El Paso, Texas; and Webb, Texas. Using disaggregated industry-level data between 1992 and 2006, we find that increased trade with China is associated with significantly lower county-industry employment and wages. In contrast, and as expected, increased imports from Mexico are positively related to increased employment and wages in U.S.-Mexico border counties. The results indicate that the U.S.-Mexico supply-chain relationship related to the maquiladora industry is significantly affected by Chinese competition. Implications for policy include an increased focus on federal programs that are intended to diversify the border economy . ( JEL F13, F43, F23)     

UNMASKING THE POLLUTION HAVEN EFFECT*

We use theory and empirics to examine the effect of environmental regulations on trade flows. A simple model demonstrates how unobserved heterogeneity, endogeneity, and aggregation issues bias standard measurements of this relationship. A reduced‐form estimate of the model, using data on U.S. regulations and trade with Canada and Mexico for 130 manufacturing industries from 1977 to 1986, indicates that industries whose abatement costs increased most experienced the largest increases in net imports. For the average industry, the change in net imports we ascribe to regulatory costs amounting to 10% of the total increase in trade volume over the period.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

反倾销被诉贸易效应的实证分析与比较——基于1998-2008年动态面板数据模型的SYS-GMM估计

在整理全球反倾销案件的基础上,通过收集相关贸易数据,利用1998-2008年被诉反倾销案件为样本建立动态面板数据模型,实证分析了12个主要国家和地区被诉反倾销的贸易破坏效应和贸易转移效应,通过SYS-GMM估计进行回归估计得到稳健性结果。实证结果表明,反倾销措施对贸易额和出口市场份额的影响远大于关税措施的影响,成为多数国家限制进口、保护本国国内产业的主要贸易政策。反倾销对中国、日本、中国台湾和俄罗斯的负面影响较大。最后考察反倾销对产业竞争力的影响发现,反倾销申诉和反倾销措施对申诉方的产业竞争力有显著的提升作用,并且反倾销措施的影响远大于反倾销申诉的影响。     

TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION EFFECTS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study empirically estimates and evaluates the economic benefits of the U.S. and Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Most past studies rely on aggregate data. The analysis here emphasizes the trade effects of removing tariff and nontariff barriers on each commodity group classified by the Standard International Trade Classification. Estimating the amount of trade expansion under FTA for both countries involves using the import demand elasticities from a dynamic demand model. Results show that U.S. imports from Canada are more sensitive to domestic, import, and world prices than are Canadian imports from the United States. U.S. imports from Canada would increase roughly £3.257 billion compared to the £2.432 billion increase for Canadian imports from the United States .     

Institutional Quality and International Trade

Institutions—quality of contract enforcement, property rights, shareholder protection, and the like—have received a great deal of attention in recent years. Yet trade theory has not considered the implications of institutional differences, beyond treating them simply as different technologies or taxes. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we propose a simple model of international trade in which institutional differences are modelled within the framework of incomplete contracts. We show that doing so reverses many of the conclusions obtained by equating institutions with productivity. Institutional differences as a source of comparative advantage imply, among other things, that the less developed country may not gain from trade and factor prices may actually diverge as a result of trade. Second, we test empirically whether institutions act as a source of trade, using data on U.S. imports disaggregated by country and industry. The empirical results provide evidence of "institutional content of trade": institutional differences are an important determinant of trade flows.     

The signaling power of trade protection

This paper proposes an empirical analysis to provide new insight into the trade diversion effects of antidumping (AD) policy. Trade diversion is the shift in trade from named countries in an AD investigation to non-named countries. Previous studies have concluded that AD action causes a considerable drop in exports from named countries, however the extent to which trade is diverted to non-named countries is still an open debate. This paper examines to see whether AD action on named countries can have signaling effects on non-named countries. To examine the trade effects on non-named countries, a time series data at an 8-digit product level is constructed for all cases initiated between 1997 and 2003 in the European Union. The paper provides evidence that antidumping policy has signaling effects on non-named imports.     

Do Unfairly Traded Imports Injure Domestic Industries?

There is a widespread popular belief that American industry is being destroyed by unfairly traded imports, that is, those that are subsidized or dumped. This claim is tested with data (where available) from all Þnal US government countervailing duty and antidumping duty investigations between 1980 and 1988. Using a computable partial equilibrium model, upper bounds of the impact of unfairly traded imports on the revenue of competing domestic industries are computed. It is found that for most industries the effect of unfairly traded imports is minor.     

出口补贴、企业所有权与外国对华的反倾销调查——基于Poisson模型的理论和实证分析

文章以中国出口导向型经济实践为基础,通过理论建模确立了五个理论假说,它们分别阐明了出口补贴、企业所有权、贸易报复威胁以及WTO贸易制度与外国对华反倾销风险之间的关联性。文章还采用Poisson模型的GEE、FE和RE回归方法,估计了印度、美国、欧盟、阿根廷、土耳其、巴西、南非和澳大利亚等8个国家和地区1995-2009年对华反倾销调查的面板数据,从经验上验证了外国对华反倾销调查的数量与中国的出口退税和对外反倾销调查强度成正比,与外资控制在华出口企业所有权的强度成反比。     

International trade and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of U.S. bilateral trade with G-7 countries

The short- and long-run effects of exchange rates, income, interest rates and government spending on U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries are investigated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The primary contribution of this study is to consider separating the analysis of exports and imports in an integrated model that empirically encompasses four major schools of thoughts – elasticity, Keynesian income, absorption and monetary approaches – in order to identify macroeconomic linkages to U.S. bilateral trade with the other G-7 countries accurately. Results suggest that, in both the short- and long-run, U.S. imports and exports are highly sensitive to changes in U.S. and foreign income, while U.S. imports and exports are relatively insensitive to changes in bilateral exchange rate. It is also found that both exports and imports are more responsive to changes in government spending than changes in interest rates in both the short- and long-run.