The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation

Advocates of antidumping (AD) laws downplay their negative effects by arguing that the trade flows that are subject to AD are small and their distortions negligible. But while the adverse effect of AD on product-level trade has long been established, the question remains whether there are trade effects at the aggregate level. The recent proliferation wave of AD laws and their use provides us with a unique policy change to estimate the true trade effects of adopting and enforcing AD laws. For this purpose, we estimate the effect of AD on bilateral trade flows between the “new adopters” of AD laws and their trade partners. Using a gravity model of annual observations (1980-2000) our estimates show that AD has trade chilling effects on aggregate import volumes but the impacts are heterogeneous across sectors. We find that new tough users experience a chilling of their aggregate imports of 14 billion US$ a year (or 5.9%) as a result of AD measures. For some countries like Mexico and India, the dampening effects of AD laws on trade flows are found to substantially offset the increase in trade volumes derived from trade liberalization.     

Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.     

培育和发挥我国行业协会在反倾销作用中的政府行为研究

在国际竞争中，政府在许多场合充当了重要的角色，但在反倾销中却难以走到前台，若撇开政府让熟悉微观运行的企业去参与反倾销，又会出现许多问题，这些问题又会引发本国企业在反倾销中的惧怕和畏缩，从而放弃中诉和应诉，进一步损害国家和企业本身的切身利益。行业协会是市场经济的必然产物，它作为一种企业的社会中介能够发挥政府无法替代的作用。所以我国政府也应当随着市场经济的逐步完善进一步转变政府职能，培育行业协会以便其在反倾销中发挥应有的作用。     

Exchange rates and trade: the case of Irish exports to Britain

This paper examines the effect of changes in the Punt/Sterling exchange rate on exports from Ireland to Britain. The approach used here differs significantly from that used in most other studies in that the long-run neutrality of the Punt/Sterling exchange rate with regard to exports from Ireland to Britain is tested using a recently developed technique. There is strong evidence that the exchange rate is neutral in the long run.     

Environmental regulation and trade pattern：a case of China

As a growing number of countries, including both developed and developing countries, have in recent yearstaken environmental regulation at different levels, a question of great concern has been raised： can the regulation alterthe existing trade volume and trade pattern, and ultimately drive pollution-intensive industries to countries with low-levelregulations or even those without regulations at all？ Starting from the three different propositions concerning therelationship between environmental regulation and trade pattern, this paper applies cointegration analysis and errorcorrection model to empirically testing the relationship between environmental regulation and trade in China during theperiod of 1985-2005. Our empirical results indicate that in the short run the collection of pollution discharge fees bearsa positive impact on the export share of clean products of total exports. Thus, higher pollution discharge fees raise theratio of clean products exports to total exports. This further indicates that more stringent environmental regulationpromotes the exports of clean products. In the long run pollution discharge fees are positively correlated with the exportshare of clean products but negatively associated with their import share. Such correlations imply that environmentalregulation tends to facilitate the international specialization in line with comparative advantages.     

Inventories and the Business Cycle*

This paper examines the relationship between the inventory cy and the business cycle using both macroeconomic and survey da It is argued that over the past decade and a half, the changes inventory management have reduced the amplitude of the inventc cycle. The paper also argues that the behaviour of inventories consistent with demand shocks being an important source of business cycle fluctuations.     

Differences in the determinants and targeting of antidumping: China and India compared

Despite both being developing countries, China and India have markedly contrasting patterns in their use and targeting of antidumping (AD) measures. We explore the factors driving AD use by these two countries, considering in turn macroeconomic, strategic and other determinants. We find more regular or systematic features of AD use by China, while India displays a less systematic pattern of AD use. Economic growth, AD club effect and free trade agreement participation are shown to constrain AD use by China. Compared to India, AD use by China is also more sensitive across industries. Furthermore, China targets developed countries more than developing countries, while India is less discriminating with respect to the country type it targets.     

Impacts of the distribution of households across income groups in a differential demand system for orange juice

This study examines the effects of the distribution of households across income groups on the Rotterdam demand model’s income and price responses. The model’s marginal propensities to consume and Slutsky coefficients are specified as varying parameters dependent on the portions of households falling in different income categories. This specification was used to analyze the demand for different orange-juice products across 52 US cities. The results indicate that for these products the distribution of households across income groups is an important determinant of the model coefficients.     

Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the environmental impacts of trade liberalization. This paper provides further discourse in this area with a study on Indonesia and its trade agreements with Japan (IJEPA) and ASEAN (AFTA). A static global CGE model, known as the Global Trade Analysis Project, was used to project the Indonesian economy to the year 2022, with and without tariff reforms agreed under the agreements. Environmental impacts are assessed using different pollution indicators—air, water and waste. The study suggests that Indonesia would grow rapidly over the period considered with a large deterioration in its environment. Following these, however, the agreements only have a marginal positive impact on Indonesia's output but with a noticeable increase in trade flows and signs of trade diversion. Overall AFTA has a greater impact on the Indonesian economy compared to IJEPA. Similarly, the impact of trade liberalization on the environment is marginal. On the whole, tariff reform is inducing air pollution and reducing water pollution. In conclusion, the study suggests that Indonesia's participation in the AFTA and IJEPA agreements is not likely to bring drastic changes to her economic and environmental performance.     

Structures of foreign trade and income distribution: The case of Mexico

Using Mexico's input-output tables and household survey data, this paper examines various trade strategies and their relationship to commodity production with a view to assesing their effect on the distribution of income. The model incorporates income-induced multiplier effects, taking into account the full range of input import-substitution possibilities. The results show that the differences in the impact on income, particularly, of the lower incomes, are most marked in the tensions between exportable and import-competing activities. On the whole, production per unit of output in the non-tradable sector produces as much factor income as that in the export sector. Expansion of exportable activities marginally improves the economic position of the poor in relation to other income groups, but only when direct effects are taken into account. If, however, domestic production meets the needs of intermediate imports, then the distribution of income remains unaffected by alternative trade strategies.     

Foreign trade and its impact on employment: The Mexican case

This paper discusses the relationship between foreign trade and employment in a small open economy, and carries out some empirical work using Mexican data. It is argued that employment multipliers are not stable if intermediate inputs are imported. Actual employment multipliers will be given by the relationship between effective demand and installed capacity in each sector, and will depend strongly on whether quotas or tariffs are in operation. It is also found that Mexican exports are capital intensive relative to its imports.     

Tariffs and Pareto optimality in international trade: The case of unemployment

This paper constructs a non-Walrasian two-country model of international trade, and investigates the possibility of policy combinations including tariffs which lead to Pareto superior trades. While such policies clearly do not exist in the Walrasian full employment situation, the paper shows that there may exist some in the case of unemployment. These policies are studied in various unemployment regimes, and it is shown that their effects depend both on the regime the economy is in, and on the degree of wage indexation.     

Expanding international trade beyond the RTA border: The case of ASEAN's economic diplomacy

We examine the roles of regional trade agreements (RTAs) not only in regionalization processes but also in globalization of trade. Results from various specifications of the gravity equation model confirm that a country can noticeably increase directional trade through diplomatic relations as well as through membership.     

Trade liberalization, antidumping, and safeguards: Evidence from India's tariff reform

This paper is the first to use product-level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political-economic pressure. We focus on the case of India, a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions. We first estimate structural determinants of India's import protection using the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and provide evidence from its pre-reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory. We then re-estimate the model on the Indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits, a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that India's 1991-1992 IMF arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to India's tariff policy. However, when we re-estimate the model on data from 2000-2002 that more completely reflects India's cross-product variation in import protection by including both its post-reform tariffs and its additional non-tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection, the significance of the Grossman and Helpman model determinant estimates is restored. We interpret these combined results as evidence that India unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political-economic pressure. The estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with India's use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform. Finally, we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on India's micro-level development.     

Gradualism and dynamic trade adjustment: Revisiting the pro-trade effect of free trade agreements

Do pro-trade effects of free trade agreements reflect timing of policy or dynamic trade adjustment? Only the latter involves dynamic welfare gains. I find that dynamic trade adjustment is as important as the immediate impact effect of free trade agreements.     

Measuring patterns of specialization using trade in value added: the case of manufacturing in Italy

This article aims to contribute to the long-standing debate on the ‘anomaly’ of Italy’s specialization in manufacturing by providing fresh analysis based on new data. It offers: 1) a comprehensive survey of Italian comparative advantages measured in value-added terms and their evolution over time; 2) an international comparison of these advantages with Italy’s main competitors. Results show that the country’s traditional comparative advantages are substantially confirmed, a genuine capacity of the Italian domestic production factors to maintain added value in production with comparative advantage can be observed and new trends in terms of specialization and competitors are also highlighted, showing the influence of the international fragmentation of production on trade and specialization.     

浅析施工企业的“两金”管控

“两金”压降是近年来施工行业中的热门话题,“两金”占比居高不下会使企业资产负债水平升高,增大企业资金周转的压力,会制约企业的健康发展,甚者会导致企业亏损,因此“两金”压降对施工企业而言是一个迫在眉睫的问题。施工企业,特别是国有性质的,大多规模庞大、资质齐全,所涉及的项目种类多、工期长,充足的流动资金是企业、项目正常运作的必要条件,合理的“两金”占比既能保证企业有充足的资金及存货支持日常的生产经营,又能促进企业持续的安全生产。本文就施工企业的“两金”问题进行了简单分析,简要说明了“两金”的含义,并从行业现状及企业内部管理方面分析了“两金”占比过高的原因,并由此就存货的压降、债权的压降及企业内部管理、外部单位的监管等方面提出了一些建议。     

The allocative efficiency of centrally planned foreign trade: A programming approach to the Czech case

In this paper the efficiency of the allocation of Czech trade with the member countries of OECD is investigated by means of a linear programming model. We find that considerable losses in this trade occurred in both of the years 1962 and 1964 examined. The bulk of the losses occurs in the allocation of exports and their magnitude is very dependent on the foreign elasticity of demand. Balance of payments constraints, on the other hand, are not an important cause of misallocation.     

The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms

This paper is concerned with the interaction between price and inventory decisions in retailing firms and its implications for the dynamics of markups and the existence of sales promotions. We consider a model where a monopolistically competitive retailer decides price and inventories, and assumes lump-sum costs when placing orders or changing nominal prices. In this model, the existence of stockout probabilities and fixed ordering costs generate a cyclical price behaviour characterized by long periods without nominal price changes and short periods with very low prices ( i.e. sales promotions). We estimate this model using a unique longitudinal dataset with information about retail and wholesale prices, inventories, orders, and sales for several brands in a supermarket chain. Based on the estimated model we perform several counterfactual experiments that show the important role that inventories and fixed ordering costs play in the dynamics of retail prices and the frequency of sales promotions in this dataset.