基于信息共享的供应链违约风险的防范与控制

在分析了信息共享对供应链违约风险的防范控制作用的基础上.设计了基于激励机制的信息共享模型.给出了有效的信息共享激励方式。最后指出了供应链违约风险研究存在的问题.并提出供应链违约风险的研究趋势。     

国家助学贷款违约风险分担机制研究

违约风险分担机制不合理是我国国家助学贷款连约率过高的主要原因之一.从目前的助学贷款违约风险分担机制来看,政府承担的风险责任较小、高校承担的风险责任较大、而银行则承担违约风险的"兜底"责任.根据"风险与收益对等"原则,设计了新的国家助学贷款违约风险分担方案,新方案降低了风险易发区内高校和银行的风险责任、增大了政府的风险责任,从而实现风险责任的合理分配、提高各贷款受益人的风险管理意识.而生源地贷款、助学贷款信用保险、助学贷款的证券化等社会化方法,引入了更多的潜在受益人分担助学贷款的违约风险责任,也有效地降低了违约风险的发生.     

供应链违约风险的成因分析与类型

为了寻找防范和控制供应链违约风险的有效途径,首先给出供应链违约风险的定义和特点;然后通过从外生和内生两方面分析违约风险发生的原因;最后根据供应链企业违约的原因.把供应链违约风险分为外生风险和内生风险两大类.并依据分类给出相应评价指标。     

银行交易账户信用暴露度量分析

一、银行交易账户信用暴露及其组成 违约暴露(exposure at default,简称EAD)是违约时不考虑回收的暴露风险的量度.暴露风险是违约事件中的受险金额(account at risk).因为未来发生违约的时间是不确定的,所以,受险金额是未来不确定的价值.暴露风险同违约风险、回收风险和期限共同构成信用风险四要素,决定了银行在违约事件中所蒙受损失的规模.因此,违约暴露的计量在信用风险的度量与管理中具有十分重要的地位.     

机构投资者、审计意见与违约风险

上市公司的违约风险直接关系到投资者及债权人的利益能否得到保障。文章研究了审计意见能否向投资者及债权人传递上市公司违约风险的信息,以及机构投资者能否对审计起到监督作用,使审计意见更准确地反映上市公司的违约风险。实证研究发现,审计意见与违约风险无显著相关关系,而机构投资者持股比例的高低则会显著影响审计意见与违约风险之间的关系。机构投资者持股比例较高的公司,其审计意见能准确地预警上市公司的违约风险,从而保护投资者及债权人的利益。     

我国金融投资体系下风险问题研究

我国的金融压制和金融管制十分严重, 金融投资的风险主要是信用风险或违约风险, 而不是市场风险,我国的信用风险可能来源于政府部门的违约、公司企业的违约以及家庭个人的违约.     

大股东股权质押、风险承担水平与债券违约风险

基于2015—2019年发生实质性债券违约的上市公司数据,运用二元Probit回归模型,从风险承担水平角度研究大股东股权质押对上市公司债券违约风险的影响。研究发现：大股东股权质押率与债券违约风险显著正相关,风险承担水平在股权质押与债券违约之间发挥了中介作用,高股权质押率的企业通过对其风险承担水平的影响,增加债券违约风险。进一步研究产权性质和信息质量差异对股权质押与债券违约关系的影响,结果显示,在不同产权性质、不同程度信息质量组别中,股权质押比例对债券违约的正向影响均存在差异,且该正向作用在非国有企业、低信息质量组中更为强烈。     

审计资源错配、商誉泡沫与企业债务违约风险

本文以沪深A股非金融上市企业为研究样本,时间范围为2012-2019年,检验审计资源错配、商誉泡沫与企业债务违约风险三者内在关联,研究发现:审计资源错配会显著加剧企业债务违约风险;审计资源错配会加剧企业的商誉泡沫;商誉泡沫在审计资源错配与企业债务违约风险关系中起到部分中介效应.     

股权投资集中度、战略偏离度与企业违约风险

学术界关于股权集中度对企业违约风险的影响存在“激浊扬清”和“推波助澜”的意见分歧。文章基于2012—2020年A股上市公司的样本数据,探讨股权集中度与违约风险两者之间的关系。总体而言,股权集中有利于降低企业违约风险;但当股权过度集中时,导致业绩波动性凸显,则会增加企业的违约风险,简言之,股权集中度与公司违约风险之间最终呈现U型关系。而战略偏离度对这一U型关系存在显著的调节效应:其中,战略偏离因为增加代理成本削弱了股权集中度与违约风险之间的负相关关系;因为业绩波动性高强化了二者之间的正相关关系。相比之下,高媒体报道率、高金融分析师关注度更有可能抑制过度集权的发生,从而缓解了股权集中度对违约风险的负面影响。本研究在丰富企业违约风险影响因素的基础上,又进一步拓展了战略偏离经济后果的研究,有利于上市公司探究股权集中度合理性这一根源性问题。     

什么决定了供应商融资:基于违约风险的考察

文章从违约风险的角度考察了影响供应商融资的主要因素,通过对2003-2009年251家上市公司的实证研究发现:决定企业信用水平的财务因素对供应商融资(应付账款比例、预付账款比例)具有显著的效应,且影响方向与理论预期相一致;决定企业投资者保护程度的制度因素对供应商融资(应付账款比例、预付账款比例)也具有显著的效应,影响方向与理论预期相一致.上述研究结果验证了理论预期:供应商会通过评估企业的信用水平和投资者保护程度,并依据企业的违约风险作出相应的销售信用政策,给予高违约风险的企业较严格的信用政策,给予低违约风险的企业较宽松的信用政策.     

Credit rationing, race, and the mortgage market

This study applies microdata from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances to evaluate the effects of borrower race and default risk in mortgage lending. The empirical analysis is based on a probit model of whether borrowers obtain FHA or conventional mortgages; the former are fully insured and are characterized by easier downpayment constraints, but are typically more expensive. Hence, households borrowing through the FHA will tend to be credit constrained in the conventional market. Results of the analysis indicate that variables which proxy lender concerns about default risk and cost have an important effect on the type of loan borrowers obtain. Empirical estimates also suggest that minority households are significantly less likely to obtain conventional financing than whites, even after controlling for various proxies of default risk. These results suggest that race effects in mortgage lending may persist for reasons unrelated to borrower default risk.     

Measuring Credit Risk of a Bank's Corporate Loan Portfolio Using Advanced Internal Ratings Base Approach

Abstract

The use of technical and advanced approaches in the measurement of credit risk of banks' portfolios has nowadays become a very hot issue. The most recent technical report issued by the Basel Committee in May 2003 has concentrated heavily on the measurement of credit risk using either foundation or advanced Internal Ratings Base (IRB) approaches. This empirical research study attempts to measure credit risk of a bank's corporate loan portfolio, including firms from 10 different Turkish sectors. The monthly observations of the total amount of corporate loans and the total amount of corporate loans at default across various sectors are downloaded from the web page of Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) in a period of 1999-2002. This period covers 47 monthly observations since CBT has captured sectoral corporate loans beginning of 1999. Therefore, the observed sectoral default rates are needed to be simulated to obtain a nicely shaped distribution. Monte Carlo simulation is applied for 1,000 times. Based on the simulated default rates, the expected sectoral default rates are computed. Next, a credit quality rating scale is fitted into sectoral default rates distributions. Finally, the sectoral weights in the whole loan portfolio are multiplied by the expected sectoral default rates matrix, considering cross-sectoral correlations to get the total amount of the bank's credit risk and capital requirement. It is assumed that sectoral monthly default rates are a good representative of the default risk of a sample bank's corporate loan portfolio since no publicly available data on any particular bank's corporate loan portfolio composition exists. Nevertheless, this research may be a good application for measuring the credit risk of banks' corporate loan portfolios using advanced IRB approach.     

基于MCLP模型的个人住房抵押贷款违约风险研究

个人住房抵押贷款一旦出现大规模的违约便会对金融体系的稳定和宏观经济的平稳运行带来很大的负面影响。通过对我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款真实数据进行分析,分离出可能对贷款履约产生影响的个人基本情况、个人信用状况以及贷款合约等15项指标。在此基础上,使用MCLP模型构建了个人住房抵押贷款违约风险模型,并比较了MCLP模型与传统Logistic模型的预测结果,发现前者具有更高的准确度。最后,基于研究结论提出了相关建议。     

Commercial mortgage underwriting: How well do lenders manage the risks?

Loan-to-value ratio and debt service coverage ratios have long been viewed as the two most important quantitative measures of the default risk of commercial mortgages. Option-based models of default provide strong theoretic support for the importance of original loan-to-value ratio. The same theoretical predictions have found strong empirical support in residential single-family mortgage analyses. However, recent empirical studies of commercial mortgage default have raised questions about the role of loan-to-value ratio in assessing the riskiness of commercial mortgages. These studies generally either find no relationship or a puzzling negative relationship between loan-to-value ratio and default. This paper uses a very large database of commercial loan histories to thoroughly investigate this issue. It finds strong evidence that loan-to-value and debt service coverage ratios are endogenous to the underwriting process. Lenders react to other—unmeasured—risk factors with credit rationing and pricing. As a result, unusually low loan-to-value ratio loans appear to have above average risk in other dimensions and their default probabilities are equal to or higher than average. The results show that the pricing spread that lenders establish as part of the underwriting process serves as an excellent summary measure of the riskiness of the loan. A test of lenders’ ability to appropriately price loan-to-value risk finds that, while there is some unpriced effect of loan-to-value ratio after controlling for the lender’s pricing, introducing lender pricing into the model removes the otherwise puzzling negative loan-to-value and default relationship previously observed in the literature.     

An analysis of default risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program

While reverse mortgages are intended as a tool to enable financial security for older homeowners, in 2014, nearly 12 percent of reverse mortgage borrowers in the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program were in default on their property taxes or homeowners insurance. Unlike the traditional mortgage market, there were no risk-based underwriting guidelines for HECMs through 2014. In response to the relatively high default rate, a variety of policy responses were implemented, including establishing underwriting guidelines. However, there is a lack of data and analysis to inform such criteria. Our analysis follows 30,000 seniors counseled for reverse mortgages between 2006 and 2011. The data includes comprehensive financial and credit report attributes, not typically available in analyses of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using a bivariate probit model that accounts for selection, we estimate the likelihood of tax and insurance default. Financial characteristics that increase default risk include the percentage of funds withdrawn in the first month of the loan, a lower credit score, higher property tax to income ratio, low or no unused revolving credit, and a history of being past due on mortgage payments or having a tax lien on the property. Our estimate of the elasticity of default with respect to credit scores is similar to that for closed-end home equity loans, but higher than that for HELOCs. We simulate the effects of alternative underwriting criteria and policy changes on the probability of take-up and default. Reductions in the default rate with a minimal effect on participation can be achieved by requiring that participants with low credit scores set aside some of their HECM funds for future property tax and insurance payments, a form of escrowing.     

Availability of Mortgage Loans in Volatile Real Estate Markets

This paper presents a default model for mortgages on single-family houses implying a higher probability of negative equity and thus default in real estate markets with high price volatility. Mortgage lenders compensate for the increased default probability in volatile markets by demanding higher downpayments or increased creditworthiness of loan applicants, thus making mortgage loans more difficult to obtain. An empirical analysis finds greatly varying price volatility in single-family real estate markets in a sample of 42 cities. Consistent with the implications of the model, the empirical analysis finds that the fraction of low-downpayment loans declines in volatile markets.     

关于规范房地产抵押贷款估价工作的思考

目前房地产抵押现已成为人们购房或融资的首选方式,因此对房地产抵押评估工作进行合理的规范,具有重要意义。本文就此问题进行了详细的探讨。     

论房价波动下抵押贷款理性违约风险管理策略

当前的房价波动触发了住房抵押贷款理性违约行为发生率的明显增加。本文在分析住宅抵押贷款理性违约行为发生机理的基础上,分别从微观(商业银行)及宏观(相关制度和政策)两个层面提出了住宅抵押贷款理性违约风险管理策略。     

资产定价模型(CAPM)在住房抵押贷款证券化(MBS)定价中的应用

20世纪80年代以来,住房抵押贷款证券化(MBS)在我国有了长足的发展,为了对住房抵押贷款证券化产品进行合理定价,本文引入CAPM模型来确定正确反应证券风险的贴现率,并且分析了CAPM模型的产生以及发展过程,最后对其进行动态的修正.     

抵押房地产的公开市场价值、抵押价值及变现价值

在金融机构发放抵押贷款时,抵押房地产的价值是确定房地产抵押贷款的贷款额的一个重要参数。我国《房地产抵押估价指导意见》规定:房地产抵押估价采用公开市场价值标准,房地产抵押价值等于假定未设立法定优先受偿权利下的市场价值减去房地产估价师知悉的法定优先受偿款。但是,金融机构通过变卖或拍卖方式行使处置权和收益权得到变现净值或清算净值,因而金融机构房地产抵押所追求的是“变现净值”或“清算净值”标准,不是公开市场价值标准。所以,金融机构要防范金融风险,科学确定房地产抵押贷款的贷款额,就必须准确界定抵押房地产的市场价值、抵押价值和变现价值。