Corporate governance and returns to emerging economy firm acquisitions in tax havens: An empirical test on Indian firms

Cross‐border acquisitions (CBAs) by emerging economy firms are known to yield positive stockholder returns. A nontrivial fraction of CBAs by emerging economy firms are in tax havens. We argue because of weak corporate governance in emerging economies and the secrecy afforded by tax havens, emerging economy firm CBAs in tax havens yield lower stockholder returns than their CBAs in nontax havens. We also argue the negative effect of tax haven destinations is greater for firms with greater business group ownership and for firms with greater foreign insider ownership. Furthermore, we argue the negative effect of tax haven destinations is mitigated for firms whose stock is actively traded in the market. Empirical tests in a sample of nearly 800 CBAs by Indian firms from 2002 to 2011 support our hypotheses. Our study contributes to a better understanding of stockholder returns to CBAs by emerging economy firms and the influence of corporate governance on these returns.     

The demand for risky assets under uncertain inflation : An examination of some widely used assumptions

This paper examines the effect of the following commonly used methods of incorporating random inflation into discrete-time models of the demand for risky assets: 1) the use of a multivariate normal probability distribution for nominal asset returns and the random inflation rate, and 2) the approximation of real asset returns by the difference between nominal returns and the rate of inflation. The combination of these assumptions results in a deceptively simple version of the inflationary capital asset pricing model (CAPM). However, in an approximation-free version of this model the expected value of real wealth does not exist. While it is obvious that mean-variance analysis is not applicable in such models, we also find that the model does not satisfy Ohlson's weakened conditions for a quadratic approximation to the portfolio selection problem. Furthermore, this model is neither a member of the generalized Pareto-Levy nor log-stable class of portfolio models analyzed by Fama, Samuelson, Ohlson, and Struck.     

解析我国股票市场代理假说效应

我国股市的特征和运行状况决定了研究我国股票市场应结合宏观经济状况作具体分析。我国股票市场中,由于经济增长与通货膨胀之间的正相关关系及经济增长与股票收益之间的弱负相关,使得股票收益与通货膨胀呈负相关关系。这样,我国股票市场可能存在代理假说效应,只是构成效应解释两部分与Fama的解释正好相反。     

Why has the United States continued to receive net investment income as a debtor country?

Why has the United States been able to keep receiving net international investment income as a debtor country? Several authors have pointed out that it is because US direct investments abroad have been generating better returns than have foreign direct investments in the United States. However, there is no consensus on why this is the case. This paper investigates this issue by conducting panel regressions to identify the main determinants of return on US direct investment abroad (RUSDIA) and those of return on foreign direct investment in the United States (RFDIUS), using data from 49 countries over the 1994–2013 period. Our findings suggest that the largest contributor to the RUSDIA‐RFDIUS gap is USDIA's advantage in the internalisation effect, which more than offset any negative age effect. The second largest contributor is income‐shifting activities by US‐controlled MNCs aiming to lower their overall tax payments. The third contributor is the negative age effect of inward FDI in the United States, which more than offset its weak internalisation effect. Altogether, those effects account for about 50% of the average return gap from 1994 to 2013. The contribution of the risk‐compensation hypothesis to the return gap is negligible.     

The Interrelationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices-The Case of China

ABSTRACT

Prior studies of industrialized countries have found that a definite relationship exists between the stock market returns and macroeconomic variables such as inflation and real output. This paper investigates the effects of changes in the consumer price index on industrial production and stock market returns for China. Six different types of Chinese shares are examined for the period 1994–1998. The results show a very significant positive relationship between inflation and real output. A positive and significant association is found between stock returns and real output in current periods. Inflation seems to have no impact on Chinese real stock returns. These relationships all hold for “B” shares, “H” shares and red chips. China's “A” share returns seem not to be impacted by either changes in domestic inflation or real industrial production.     

湖南省产业税负对产业结构调整的影响效应

合理的产业税负水平有利于产业结构的优化调整。对湖南省产业结构调整和产业税负的多元回归分析表明:湖南省第三产业税负与产业结构调整显著负相关,并且对产业结构高级化的影响大于对产业结构合理化的影响;第二产业税负对产业结构的高级化具有显著的正向影响效应,但对产业结构合理化的影响并不显著。对湖南省主要行业税负与产业结构调整的灰色关联分析表明:湖南省工业和传统服务业仍居主要地位,而以金融业、房地产业、信息技术业等为代表的现代服务业的税收产业导向作用相对较弱。     

Trade Credit,Bank Credit,and Flight to Quality: Evidence from French SMEs

This paper investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on the allocation of credit to small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Using samples of French SMEs from four industries, we found support for the prediction of the flight‐to‐quality hypothesis that in bad times, credit flows away from smaller constrained firms to larger, higher grade firms. We also examined the relation between bank credit and trade credit in terms of two hypotheses: the substitution hypothesis and the complementary hypothesis. The results of fixed effects panel regressions showed that trade credit for small firms during periods of tight money acts generally as complement rather than substitute to bank credit, thus providing empirical support for the redistribution view of trade credit.     

The Colombian Stock Market: 1930-1998

Abstract

This article studies the behavior of the stock market in Colombia with the information given by the Bolsa de Bogota Index (Indice de la Bolsa de Bogota, IBB). The index is analyzed from January, 1930 to December, 1998. The inflation rate covers the same period; the inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The results of this analysis show that monthly and per annum return-nominal and real-are well below from the expected return of any financial investor. A first hypothesis to explain this is that the investor and entrepreneurs receive benefits that are non-measurable in terms of economic return. Also it can be said that inflation is negative to the return at the stock market, thus: the larger the inflation rate, the smaller the real return. It is shown that the market does not anticipate the future inflation, and of course it is not included in the actual price. Probabilities for selected real return values are presented. The probability to obtain a real return greater than 0% and other values (5%, 10%, 12% and 18%) as well, is much less than 50%. This might show that investing at the stock market is just gambling.     

The CRM process in retail and service sector firms in Japan: Loyalty development and financial return

Research on customer relationship management (CRM) in general has focused on the effects of customer satisfaction with CRM, customer retention and profit management, and the effects of CRM technique on performance. Conceptually, however, a sequence of effects of CRM is expected, from CRM implementation to financial performance, but this sequence has not been explored. Whilst several definitions of CRM have been proposed, this article defines CRM as relationship-development programmes based on IT. CRM is regarded as the integration of relationship technology (i.e. data consolidating and data mining) with loyalty schemes. Survey research was conducted in Japan in the retail and service industries to test three hypotheses: (1) a firm's relationship orientation has a positive effect on CRM implementation (data warehousing, data mining, using customer data for decision making); (2) CRM implementation has a positive effect on return on equity; and (3) CRM implementation has an indirect effect on return on equity, mediated by customisation. Using a structural equation model the first hypothesis was supported, but the third hypothesis was only partially supported. In these analyses a direct effect of CRM implementation on return on equity (ROE) was supported; however, a negative impact of customisation on ROE was found.     

碳税对芬兰产业国际竞争力影响的实证研究

碳税对产业国际竞争力的影响是衡量其能否在政治上被接受的重要因素.芬兰是世界上第一个成功推行碳税的国家,其实践经验对我国进行碳税政策设计具有借鉴意义。从国际贸易的角度就芬兰征收碳税对产业国际竞争力的影响进行实证研究,征收碳税对芬兰产业国际竞争力有一定的消极影响。芬兰的经验,对我国的碳税政策设计提供了良好的借鉴。     

What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

Asymmetric effects of investor sentiment on industry stock returns: Panel data evidence

This article employs a state-of-the-art panel threshold model by allowing for regime intercepts, in order to shed new light on the asymmetric/nonlinear effects of local and global sentiments on expected industry stock returns among 11 Asian countries during the period from 1996 to 2010. Empirical evidence demonstrates that once the regime intercept is included, the asymmetric effects of global sentiment on oil & gas, financials, and health care industry returns become less under optimism, as compared with under pessimism. More critically, the positive (negative) impact of global sentiment above (under) the threshold turns significant, indicating that global optimism leads industry returns to be overvalued, while pessimism leads them to be undervalued. For local market sentiment, our results support that higher local sentiment enhances the returns of basic materials, telecommunications, and utilities industries. The empirical results confirm that the nexus of industry returns and investor sentiments is subject to change between different sentimental intervals.     

The fear of globalizing capital markets

It is generally accepted that free flow of goods benefits both economies without serious risks. The situation with the free flow of capital is different. Many policy makers and economists are skeptical not only about the benefits of free flow of capital, but also see uncontrolled capital flows as risky and destabilizing. Other economists, however, firmly believe that free capital flows will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and greater economic growth. Nevertheless, the debate has little empirical evidence to rely on. We hope to fill that gap in this paper. We study the benefits and risks associated with capital flows by examining the experience of emerging economies around the time that foreign investment in stock markets was allowed. We investigate the impact of capital flows on stock returns, stock market efficiency, inflation, and exchange rates. We also examine the effect on different kinds of volatility that might arise as a consequence of capital flows: volatility of stock returns, volatility of inflation rates, and volatility of exchange rates. We find no evidence of an increase in inflation or an appreciation of exchange rates. Stock returns reflect a lower cost of capital after liberalization. There is no increase in stock market volatility and the volatility of inflation and exchange rates actually decreases. Stock markets become more efficient as determined by testing the random walk hypothesis.     

Fiscal policy and regional inflation in a currency union

Substantial attention has been devoted to inflation differentials within the European Monetary Union, including suggestions that inflation differentials are a policy issue for national governments. This paper investigates the ability of a region participating in a currency union to affect its inflation differential with respect to the union through fiscal policy. In a two-region general equilibrium model with traded and nontraded goods, lowering the labor income tax rate in response to positive inflation differentials succeeds in compressing inflation differentials. Such policies can lead to higher volatility of domestic inflation while leaving the volatility of real output roughly unchanged. Regional fiscal policies also have spill-over effects on the volatility of union-wide and foreign inflation in our model.     

Persistent mispricing in a recently opened emerging index futures market: Arbitrageurs invited

The purpose of this study is to analyze the persistent, typically negative, mispricing in the new stock index futures market in Turkey, which has amounted to 5–8%, several multiples of transaction costs. The observations suggest that it is the outcome of a combination of practical difficulties of shorting in the spot stock market, behavioral effects, and insufficient arbitrage. The magnitude of the mispricing and the absence of arbitrage make behavioral effects more visible and provide a unique opportunity to examine extant behavioral hypotheses. Results confirm effects such as disposition and/or conservatism with the mispricing negatively related to past returns, but unrelated to future returns. Finally, an orderly weakening of the negative relation to past returns and behavioral effects is observed, suggesting that such effects will diminish as the market matures. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:218–243, 2009     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

两岸通货膨胀及其不确定性研究

基于两岸1983年1月～2011年12月的通货膨胀数据,应用EGARCH-M模型分析了大陆和台湾的通货膨胀不确定性,结果发现两岸通货膨胀不确定性均存在杠杆效应,正向冲击大于负向冲击,台湾更易受到外来冲击的影响,台湾通货膨胀及其不确定性关系符合Holland假说。格兰杰因果关系检验得出两岸通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性关系均符合Friedman-Ball假说,两岸通货膨胀之间、通货膨胀不确定性之间存在相互影响关系。     

房地产税收、公共服务供给与房价——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

利用中国大陆1998—2009年的省际面板数据研究地方房地产税负、公共服务供给与房价间的关系,结果表明:在整体层面,房地产持有税、交易税与房价显著负相关,而公共支出强度与公共服务水平则与房价显著正相关,并且公共服务正资本化效果大于房地产税负的负资本化效果,人均收入水平与人口密度同样与房价正相关;在区域层面,东部地区房地产税负对房价的影响较大,而在中西部地区,人均收入水平与人口密度则是影响房价的最重要因素。     

A Framework for Setting Retirement Savings Goals

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for calculating savings needed to meet retirement goals under a variety of alternative assumptions about the economic and institutional environment. A “base case” that incorporates a zero real rate of interest serves as a starting point; next, differences resulting from a positive interest rate are examined. The analysis is further modified to take into account the effects of inflation, the role of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), and possible future changes in tax laws. Throughout, the goal is to evaluate how best to plan for a smooth, regular consumption level before and after retirement and to adjust savings programs for changes in one's situation or expectations. The framework provided herein is expected to be useful to consumer educators and financial counselors concerned with helping individuals to meet their retirement goals.