Inflation and west African sectoral stock price indices: An asymmetric kernel method analysis

Our work puts into perspective the relationship between inflation and West African sectoral indices between November 2001 and January 2020 using the asymmetric kernel method. The sectoral indices considered for the analysis include retail, finance, industry, utilities, agriculture, transportation, and other sectors. Our work reveals that while all sectors are sensitive to inflation, the utilities and agriculture sectors are more sensitive to changes in inflation. Moreover, we discover that the relationship between inflation and sectoral stock market indices is rather non-linear to support the hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and stock market indices varies across different inflationary economies. These results imply that investors modify the structure of their investment portfolio according to the variation in the levels of inflation to the extent that this variation ultimately affects future dividends.     

Asymmetric effects of investor sentiment on industry stock returns: Panel data evidence

This article employs a state-of-the-art panel threshold model by allowing for regime intercepts, in order to shed new light on the asymmetric/nonlinear effects of local and global sentiments on expected industry stock returns among 11 Asian countries during the period from 1996 to 2010. Empirical evidence demonstrates that once the regime intercept is included, the asymmetric effects of global sentiment on oil & gas, financials, and health care industry returns become less under optimism, as compared with under pessimism. More critically, the positive (negative) impact of global sentiment above (under) the threshold turns significant, indicating that global optimism leads industry returns to be overvalued, while pessimism leads them to be undervalued. For local market sentiment, our results support that higher local sentiment enhances the returns of basic materials, telecommunications, and utilities industries. The empirical results confirm that the nexus of industry returns and investor sentiments is subject to change between different sentimental intervals.     

An examination of predictable risk and return in UK stock returns

This paper examines whether conditional asset pricing models can explain the predictability in UK stock returns using the frameworks of Ferson and Harvey (1999) and Kirby (1998). The paper finds that the domestic Arbitrage Pricing Theory model is able to explain most of the observed time-series predictability in stock returns and tends to perform better than the domestic CAPM in explaining the predictability generated by the predictive instruments. The paper also finds that domestic asset pricing models tends to capture more of the time-series predictability in UK stock returns than international models. However none of the models are able to explain all of the predictability in returns.     

Devaluations and emerging stock market returns

Stock returns over the 2 years surrounding 24 currency devaluations are examined. Using bootstrapped distributions, returns preceding the devaluation are shown to be significantly below normal, in both dollar and local currency terms. Most of the downturn, however, occurs well before the month of the devaluation. Returns following a devaluation are normal. While industry and company specific effects appear to influence return behavior, only country effects and leverage levels are statistically significant. At the country level, both aggregate economic activity (GDP) and the size of the devaluation are important in explaining return behavior. The stock of foreign debt has little impact on returns. Finally, even though returns appear to anticipate devaluations, they are not statistically significant at predicting the size of the devaluation.     

Deceptive advertising and abnormal stock returns

This study examined the impact of deceptive advertising on the abnormal stock returns of firms. Using an event study analysis with 101 cases from the FTC database over the period 1987–2005, the FTC rulings on deceptive advertising were found to have the negative effects on the abnormal stock returns of firms. Among the firm-specific factors examined in this study, the amount of advertising expenditures played a role in alleviating the impact of deceptive advertising on the abnormal stock returns, and the firms charged with consent agreements alone were found to lose less firm value than those charged with additional actions by the FTC. Results also showed that the negative effects on the abnormal stock returns created by the FTC actions did not quickly disappear afterwards. These results imply that marketing managers should exercise caution in designing advertising messages that may or may not intend to violate the FTC rules and regulations on deceptive advertising.     

Index options open interest and stock market returns

This study finds that the growth of index options open interest has a significant relation with future stock market returns. We propose a theoretical model that considers hedgers and informed traders in the options market and suggests that hedgers fully utilize options according to their expectations of future stock returns. The empirical results show that the growth of out-of-the-money call options open interest is significantly related with future stock market returns. These findings provide supporting evidence for our theoretical model.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Jump variance risk: Evidence from option valuation and stock returns

We study jump variance risk by jointly examining both stock and option markets. We develop a GARCH option pricing model with jump variance dynamics and a nonmonotonic pricing kernel featuring jump variance risk premium. The model yields a closed-form option pricing formula and improves in fitting index options from 1996 to 2015. The model-implied jump variance risk premium has predictive power for future market returns. In the cross-section, heterogeneity in exposures to jump variance risk leads to a 6% difference in risk-adjusted returns annually.     

The cross-section of emerging market stock returns

Using monthly stock returns from 28 emerging market countries and a total sample period of 21 years, we investigate the predictive power of a broad set of factors. We document that the factor definitions of the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model are less robust compared to alternative factor definitions. In contrast, the anomalous returns associated with cash flow-to-price, gross profitability, composite equity issuance, and momentum are pervasive as they show up in equal- and value-weighted portfolio sorts as well as in cross-sectional regressions. In contrast to financial theory and in line with previous findings, we do not find a positive cross-sectional relationship between risk and return. Finally, return forecasts derived from the alternative factor definitions are superior in their out-of-sample predictive ability to the ones derived from the five-factor model.     

Option-implied betas and the cross section of stock returns

We investigate the cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and a number of measures of option-implied beta. Using portfolio analysis, we show that the method proposed by Buss and Vilkov (2012, The Review of Financial Studies, 2525, 3113–3140) leads to a stronger relationship between implied beta and stock returns than other approaches. However, using the Fama and MacBeth (1973, Journal of Political Economy, 8181, 607–636) cross-section regression methodology, we show that the relationship is not robust to the inclusion of other firm characteristics. We further show that a similar result holds for implied downside beta. We, therefore, conclude that there is no robust relation between option-implied beta and returns.     

Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

We demonstrate that arbitrage risk, constructed using three measures — noise trader risk, trading cost and information uncertainty — can predict the return of stocks cross-sectionally in China. The findings are broadly consistent even when out-of-sample tests are conducted using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression approach. We also construct hypothetical portfolios using the information arising from arbitrage risk and find the existence of abnormal returns which is robust to the use of various portfolios constructed by re-sampling the observations through multiple approaches (e.g., by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratio). Lastly, we reconstruct our portfolios by considering the unique nature of the Chinese stock market (e.g., the dominance of individual investors). Our trading strategies again successfully obtain abnormal returns, suggesting that arbitrage risk can be useful to construct effective investment portfolios in China.     

Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns

Informed traders often use options that are not in-the-money due to higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Thus, trading activity by option moneyness should be a gauge of informed option trading. We construct a dollar volume-weighted average moneyness measure to capture option trading activity at different moneyness levels. Stock returns increase with this measure, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage predicts future stock returns. Our results hold cross-sectionally and at the portfolio level yielding a Fama–French five-factor α of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year for high implied volatility stocks.     

Innovation source,advancement stage and company stock returns

The purpose of this paper was to measure the short- and long-term impact of innovation announcements on the stock returns of service companies. In order to study the predictors of the abnormal stock returns, the study takes the adoption and diffusion theory as its conceptual background. The research was based on an event study and buy-and-hold methods. It encompassed 398 announcements released for 121 companies in EU member states between February 2011 and December 2016. The study deepens the dialogue on the role of the source of innovation and its advancement stage. It indicates a positive market reaction to high innovation advancement stage announcements in comparison to low advancement stage ones. Furthermore, it suggests a positive market reaction to in-house development in comparison to collaborative development and copying. Finally, the research signals that the innovation advancement stage complements its source by clarifying its relationship with abnormal market value changes.     

Political connections,political cycles and stock returns: Evidence from Iran

We examine the effect of political connections and political cycles on stock returns of listed companies in Iran. Using 1146 firm-year observations derived from firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for the period 2005–2017, we find that political connections are positively associated with firms' annual actual returns and annual abnormal returns. Presidential elections strengthen the positive relationship between political connections and cumulative abnormal returns. Transfer of power to the Moderation (Principlist) party in 2013 (2005) strengthened (weakened) the positive relation between political connections and cumulative abnormal returns. Several sensitivity tests show that the results are not materially different from the main findings. Consistent with the political economy perspective, the findings suggest that political connections in a centrally planned economy are valuable for both parties and they become even more valuable in election years. Moreover, consistent with rational partisan theory, results suggest that investors react to political uncertainties stemming from presidential elections and transfer of power, even in emerging market economies like Iran.     

Linking new product alliances to stock returns and risk

Although firms widely engage in new product alliances, prior research has paid limited attention to their financial impact, especially, both stock returns and risk. In addition to the direct impact of product alliances, I have assessed how firm and alliance characteristics can moderate such effects. I have examined firm size and alliance type as moderators to the product alliance and stock performance relationship. Using a large database of 506 firms and 3714 new product alliances over 21 years, I estimate a random effects model. My findings are that new product alliances demonstrate an increase in stock returns and a decrease in stock risk. In addition, these effects are heterogeneous across firm size and alliance type. This research has implications for both new product alliances and marketing-finance interface literature.     

Anomalies and equilibrium returns in a small stock market

Size and turn-of-the-year-related stock pricing anomalies are documented on the Helsinki Stock Exchange (HESE), Finland. This small exchange exhibits a statistically highly significant small-firm premium, even after correction for several of the shortcomings of the CRSP tape. Returns are also found to be markedly seasonal. January, and for the smallest stocks February, returns are found to be significantly in excess of the expected. A tax-loss-selling hypothesis on the formation of January returns, incorporating the institutional feature that capital losses may only be deducted from capital gains, is supported by the data. In some contrast to this explanation, the article shows that the turn-of-the-year rally actually appears to start in the largest stocks by mid-December.     

On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns

The two recent studies of Cajueiro and Tabak (2004b) and Hull and McGroarty (2014) investigate the predictability of emerging stock market returns based on the Hurst coefficient—a simple but powerful measure of long-range dependence. Unfortunately, the insights gained in these studies are limited because they (i) present conflicting evidence on the time-varying nature of the estimated Hurst coefficients and (ii) incorrectly equate random walk behaviour with market efficiency. In this note, we revisit the issue of time-varying predictability for a rich sample of 21 emerging markets in the 27-year period from 1988 to 2015. Extending the two aforementioned studies by various alternative fractal estimators of the Hurst coefficient, trend regressions and several robustness checks, our analysis reveals significant downward trends in the local Hurst coefficients of almost all markets. Specifically, we document vanishing predictability over time, which indicates that profitable emerging market investment strategies based on past returns may not continue their good performance in the future. Furthermore, we explicitly point out why a random walk is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for rationally determined security prices, and thus signs of predictability (randomness) should not be interpreted as evidence for market inefficiency (efficiency).     

A closer look at co-movements among stock returns

Correlation among financial assets is widely recognized; however, the mechanics of the relationship are not well understood. This paper investigates the microstructure of the co-movement of stock returns. The goal is to improve our understanding of correlation among stock returns by examining the conditions under which asset returns co-move on an intra-day basis. The methodology combines a traditional lead–lag model with a modified or pseudo-error correction model. Empirical evidence is presented to suggest the speed of adjustment between paired asset intra-day returns is a function of asymmetric information. Specifically, the wider an asset's spread, the faster the asset will converge to the intra-day returns of other similar assets. This result is consistent with partial adjustment model presented by Chan (Chan, K. (1993). Imperfect information and cross-autocorrelation among stock prices. The Journal of Finance:1211–1230.) which suggests market makers gain from monitoring other market makers in periods of uncertainty.