Controlling Episodic Air Pollution with a Seasonal Gas Tax: The Case of Cache Valley,Utah

Using daily data spanning 10 years, we establish a statistical relationship between episodic particulate-matter \((\hbox {PM}_{2.5})\) concentrations and vehicle trips in Cache Valley, Utah, and estimate an average gas-price elasticity for the region. We also estimate the benefits and costs associated with a seasonal gas tax set to reduce vehicle trips during the winter-inversion season and thereby lower health costs through concomitant decreases in the \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) concentrations. We find a strong positive relationship between vehicle trips reduced and associated reductions in \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) concentrations. Further, we estimate a mean gas price elasticity of approximately \(-\)0.3 in what we call a “high price variability environment.” Incorporating these results, cost-benefit analysis suggests that the social net benefit for Cache Valley associated with the imposition of a seasonal gas tax during the winter-inversion season is highly dependent upon the type of benefit estimation method used.     

Fiscal Policy and $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions of New Passenger Cars in the EU

To what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars? We construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars, and then test the model empirically. Our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data. First, we use a large database of vehicle-specific taxes in 15 EU countries over 2001–2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels, and separately, for the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) sensitivity of these taxes. We find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars. We then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of the new car fleet. The increased \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)-sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emission intensity of the average new car by 1.3 %, partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel-fuelled cars by 6.5 percentage points. Higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars, but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of (more fuel efficient) diesel cars; higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect.     

Technical Synergies and Trade-Offs Between Abatement of Global and Local Air Pollution

In this paper, we explore the synergies and tradeoffs between abatement of global and local pollution. We build a unique dataset of Swedish combined heat and power plants with detailed boiler-level data 2001–2009 on not only production and inputs but also on emissions of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and \(\hbox {NO}_{\mathrm{x}}\). Both pollutants are regulated by strict policies in Sweden. \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) is subject to the European Union Emission Trading Scheme and Swedish carbon taxes; \(\hbox {NO}_{\mathrm{x}}\)—as a precursor of acid rain and eutrophication—is regulated by a heavy fee. Using a quadratic directional output distance function, we characterize changes in technical efficiency as well as patterns of substitutability in response to the policies mentioned. The fact that generating units face a trade-off between the pollutants indicates the need for policy coordination.     

Fractional Integration Versus Structural Change: Testing the Convergence of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions

This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of relative \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions within 28 OECD countries over the period 1950–2013. Using the local Whittle estimator and some of its variants we assess whether relative per capita \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions are long memory processes which, although highly persistent, may revert to their mean/trend in the long run thereby indicating evidence of stochastic convergence. Furthermore, we test whether (possibly) slow convergence or the complete lack of it may be the result of structural changes to the deterministics of each of the relative per-capita emissions series by means of the tests of Berkes et al. (Ann Stat 1140–1165, 2006) and Mayoral (Oxford Bull Econ Stat 74(2):278–305, 2012). Our results show relatively weak support for stochastic convergence of \(\hbox {CO}_2\) emissions, indicating that only between 30 and 40% of the countries converge to the OECD average in a stochastic sense. This weak evidence disappears if we enlarge the sample to include 4 out of the 5 BRICS, indicating that our results are not robust to the inclusion of countries which are experiencing rates of growth which are far larger than those of the OECD members. Our results also decisively indicate that a slow or lack of convergence is not the results of a structural break in the relative \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions series.     

Offsetting Versus Mitigation Activities to Reduce $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for the U.S. and Germany

This paper studies the voluntary provision of public goods that is partially driven by a desire to offset for individual polluting activities. We first extend existing theory and show that offsets allow a reduction in effective environmental pollution levels while not necessarily extending the consumption of a polluting good. We further discuss the impact of an increased environmental preference on purchases of offsets and mitigation activities. Several theoretical results are then econometrically tested using a novel dataset on activities to reduce \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions for the case of vehicle purchases in the U.S. and Germany. We show that environmental preference triggers the stated use of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) offsetting and mitigation channels in both countries. However, we find strong country differences for the stated purchase of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) offsets. While such activities are mainly triggered by a high general awareness of the climate change problem in the U.S., the perception that road travel is responsible for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions to a large extent is more important for driver’s license holders in Germany.     

Shaping the Relationship Between Economic Development and Carbon Dioxide Emissions at the Local Level: Evidence from Spatial Econometric Models

The debate over the correlation between economic growth and environmental pollution has attracted a great deal of attention from academic researchers and policy makers in recent years. There has been excessive use of spatial econometric models and too much emphasis on statistical procedures in empirical studies. In this study, we contribute to the existing literature by conducting a more rigorous analysis of the relationship between economic growth and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions in Chinese cities using spatial Durbin models. Our results show that \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions increase monotonically in relation to economic growth at the city level and that the driving effects of economic growth are slightly smaller in central China than in eastern and western China. In addition to economic growth, industry’s share of the economy is a major driver of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions, while technological improvement, measured by energy intensity per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), and the effectiveness of environmental governance flatten the shape of the environmental Kuznets curve. We provide evidence of local spillover effects of explanatory variables on \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions. Economic competition as well as technological diffusion are found to exist in Chinese cities in relation to \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions. We also find carbon leakage between cities only if the per capita GDP of a given city is less than $493 (in 2010 constant dollars). Results hold when robustness checks are performed. Policy makers should carefully consider regional differences and the inherent spatial interactions between factors when formulating carbon reduction policies.     

Shadow prices of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ emissions at US electric utilities: a random-coefficient,random-directional-vector directional output distance function approach

We estimate the shadow prices of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of electric utilities in the US over the period from 2001 to 2014, using a random-coefficient, random-directional-vector directional output distance function (DODF) model. The main feature of this model is that both its coefficients and directional vector are allowed to vary across firms, thus allowing different firms to have different production technologies and to follow different growth paths. Our Bayes factor analysis indicates that this model is strongly favored over the commonly used fixed-coefficient DODF model. Our results obtained from this model suggest that the average annual shadow price of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions ranges from $61.62 to $105.72 (in 2001 dollars) with an average of $83.12. The results also suggest that the firm-specific average shadow price differs significantly across electric utilities. In addition, our estimates of the shadow price of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions show an upward trend for both the sample electric utilities as a whole and the majority of the individual sample electric utilities.     

Asymmetric first-price auctions with uniform distributions: analytic solutions to the general case

In 1961, Vickrey posed the problem of finding an analytic solution to a first-price auction with two buyers having valuations uniformly distributed on ${[\underline{v}_{1}, \overline{v}_{1}]}$ and ${[\underline{v}_{2}, \overline{v}_{2}]}$ . To date, only special cases of the problem have been solved. In this paper, we solve this general problem and in addition allow for the possibility of a binding minimum bid. Several interesting examples are presented, including a class where the two bid functions are linear.     

The Value of Air Quality in Chinese Cities: Evidence from Labor and Property Market Outcomes

Using a dual-market sorting model of workers’ location decisions, this paper studies the capitalization of air pollution in wages and property prices across Chinese cities. To account for endogeneity of air pollution in the determination of wages and property prices, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in air quality induced by a policy subsidizing coal-based winter heating in northern China, and document a discontinuity in average air quality for cities located north and south of the policy boundary. Using data for all 288 Chinese cities in 2011, we estimate an equilibrium relationship between wages and house prices for the entire system of Chinese cities, and specify a regression discontinuity design to quantify how variation in air quality induced by the policy affects this relationship locally. Our preferred estimates of the elasticity of wages and house prices with respect to \(\text {PM}_{10}\) concentration are 0.53 and \({-}\) 0.71 respectively. At the average of our sample, the willingness to pay for a unit reduction in \(\text {PM}_{10}\) concentration is CNY 261.28 (\(\simeq \) USD 40.50), with a significant share reflected in labor market outcomes.     

Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions in the European Union?

This paper addresses the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emission patterns of the European Union from 1950 to 2010, and examines the validity of the Green Solow model, which simulates \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions growth by including only Solow forces and assuming emission intensity growth to be exogenous and constant. This study verifies that an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) trajectory exists for per capita \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions in the European Union, that emission intensity growth is decreasing over time, and that the decreasing intensity growth reflects variations of the dependent variable in the specifications of the Green Solow model. The critique by Stefanski (On the mechanics of the Green Solow model. OxCarre Research Paper 47, OxCarre & Laval University, Oxford, 2013) of the Green Solow model assumption of exogenous and constant intensity growth is validated. The EKC is defined as the emissions plotted against income and emission intensity is defined as the ratio of emissions to income. The EKC and emission intensity share identical definitions and similar transition trajectories over time. The transition of the EKC trajectory and decline in emission intensity growth began before worldwide attention was focused on global warming.     

Eco-Efficiency and Convergence in OECD Countries

This paper assesses the convergence in eco-efficiency of a group of 22 OECD countries over the period 1980–2008. In doing so, three air pollutants representing the impact on the environment of economic activities are considered, namely, carbon dioxide ( ${\text{ CO}}_{2}$ ), nitrogen oxides ( ${\text{ NO}}_\mathrm{X}$ ) and sulphur oxides ( ${\text{ SO}}_\mathrm{X}$ ); furthermore, eco-efficiency scores at both country and air-pollutant-specific level are computed using Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Then, convergence is evaluated using the recent approach by Phillips and Sul Econometrica 75:1771–1855 (2007), which tests for the existence of convergence groups. First, we find that eco-efficiency has improved over the period, with the exception of ${\text{ NO}}_\mathrm{X}$ emissions. Second, Switzerland is the most eco-efficient country, followed by some Scandinavian economies, such as Sweden, Iceland, Norway and Denmark. In contrast, Southern European countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece, in addition to Hungary, Turkey, Canada and the United States, are among the worst performers. Finally, we find that both the most eco-efficient countries and the worst tend to form clubs of convergence.     

How Much Does Wind Power Reduce $$\text {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions? Evidence from the Irish Single Electricity Market

This paper evaluates the effect of wind generation on \(\text {CO}_{2}\) emissions using 2008–2012 historical data for the Irish Single Electricity Market. Wind generation displaces \(\text {CO}_{2}\) emissions, as expected, in line with the average system emissions. Over the whole period, wind generation avoided about 8.8 million tons of \(\text {CO}_{2}\), equivalent to about 12% of total system emissions. To understand what drives the level of abatement we evaluate the results by technology and determine that wind generation has similar effects on total emissions from CCGT and coal plants, due to the higher carbon content of coal. Each MWh of wind, however, replaces more generation from CCGTs than from coal plants, in proportion to their generation. We also test the hypothesis that as wind displaces baseload plants it pushes them to generate less efficiently, but find no evidence of a strong negative effect of wind on CCGT or coal plant efficiency. Finally wind displaces about 2.5% fewer emissions when the pumped storage plant is on outage, suggesting that wind is more effective when paired with a flexible system.     

A trend filtering method closely related to $$\ell _{1}$$ trend filtering

The filtering method developed by Kim et al. (SIAM Rev 51:339–360, 2009), \(\ell _{1}\) trend filtering, is attractive because it enables us to estimate a continuous piecewise linear trend. This paper introduces a new filtering method closely related to \(\ell _{1}\) trend filtering in order to contribute to the accumulation of knowledge on \(\ell _{1}\) trend filtering. We show that the piecewise linearity, which is the key feature of \(\ell _{1}\) trend filtering, is derived from the new filtering. For this reason, we refer to the filtering as ‘pure’ \(\ell _{1}\) trend filtering. We also demonstrate some other miscellaneous results concerning the new filtering.     

Introduction to the Special Issue: Subterranean Geopolitics

ABSTRACT

Recent scholarship in political geography and allied disciplines such as Anthropology and Architecture has used registers such as the elemental and volumetric to explore the calculative, material, technical, and atmospheric interventions in, on, through and beneath the earth’s surface. In this special issue, our contributors engage in a ‘subterranean turn’, as they drill down, dive into, travel through and speculate with underground and underwater domains. Although varied in their geographical environments and locales, and diverse in their time-frames, the papers speak to four themes that constitute a ‘subterranean geopolitics.’ First, the subterranean is conceptualised as volume with distinct material qualities including height, pressure, depth and shape. There are multiple undergrounds on offer. Second, the subterranean is integral to nation-state building and geopolitical strategies of control, enclosure and exclusion. Third, there is evidence of and for subterranean infrastructures aplenty. States and other actors want to design, experiment and plan with the underground and underwater environments. Finally, the subterranean is never divorced from calculative, legal and technical regimes of regulation, and the cultivation of expertise – scientific, military, engineering – is a crucial element in these contributions to subterranean geopolitics. Taken together, the nine papers in this special issue offer a rich array of case studies including the nineteenth-century volcanic eruption in the Mediterranean (Hawkins 2018 Hawkins, H. 2018. A volcanic incident’: Towards a geopolitical aesthetics of the subterranean. Geopolitics. online published 25th September 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2017.1399877.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), subterranean nationalism in the South Atlantic (Benwell), lead mining in nineteenth-century English Peak District (Endfield and Van Lieshout 2019 Endfield, G., and C. Van Lieshout. 2019. Water and vertical territory: Teh volatile and hidden historical geographies of Derbyshire’s lead mining soughs, 1650s–1830s. Geopolitics. online published 9th October 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2018.1486299.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), a transnational gas pipeline running through Italy (Barry and Gambino 2019 Barry, A., and E. Gambino. 2019. Pipeline geopolitics: Subaquatic materials and the tactical point. Geopolitics. online published 14th March 2019. doi: 10.1080/14650045.2019.1570921.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), subterranean security in Israel/Palestine (Slesinger 2019 Slesinger, I. 2019. A cartography of the unknowable: Technology, territory and subterranean agencies in Israel’s management of the gaza tunnels. Geopolitics. online published 8th February 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2017.1399878.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), natural gas infrastructure (Forman 2019 Forman, P. 2019. Security and the subsurface: Natural gas and the visualisation of possibility spaces. Geopolitics. online published 17th October 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2018.1513918.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), deep sea mining off Papua New Guinea (Childs 2019b Childs, J. 2019b. Extraction in four dimensions: Time, space and the emerging geo(-)politics of deep-sea mining. Geopolitics. online published 14th June 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2018.1465041.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), US military planning in and under Greenland’s inland ice (Bruun 2018 Bruun, J. 2018. Invading the whiteness: Science, (sub)terrain, and US militarisation of the Greenland ice sheet. Geopolitics. online published 17 November 2018. doi:10.1080/14650045.2018.1543269.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]), and managing the shipping routes of the English Channel (Peters 2019 Peters, K. 2019. Deep routeing and the making of ‘Maritime Motorways’: Beyond surficial geographies of connection for governing global shipping. Geopolitics. online published 1st February 2019. doi:10.1080/14650045.2019.1567499.[Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]).     

Comment on Johnson’s creating dimensional stock-flow inconsistency in Binswanger’s model

Binswanger (2009 Binswanger, M. 2009. “Is There a Growth Imperative in Capitalist Economies? A Circular Flow Perspective.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 31:707–727. doi:10.2753/pke0160-3477310410.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) constructed a model of a pure credit money economy with production to demonstrate the existence of growth imperative in such economies. This model entails a misspecification because money may disappear from the economy at the alleged minimal steady state growth rate (Gilányi 2015 Gilányi, Z. 2015. “A Brief Note on Mathias Binswanger’s Model.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:590–596. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1049927.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Johnson (2015 Johnson, R. 2015. “Capitalism’s Growth Imperative: An Examination of Binswanger and Gilányi.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:597–622. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1049928.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) attributes this inconsistency to the confusion between the stock of outstanding loans at the end of period and the flow of loans taken during the period; that he calls dimensional stock-flow inconsistency. On the grounds of this criticism he modifies some flows to eliminate the problem raised by Gilányi. Binswanger (2015 Binswanger, M. 2015. “The Growth Imperative Revisited, a Rejoinder to Gilányi and Johnson.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 37:648–660. doi:10.1080/01603477.2015.1050333.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) omits this criticism because it is a simple misinterpretation of his model; rather he explains the inadequacy of Johnson’s specification of flows. Doing so, he makes believe that there is still an unsettled debate on whether to treat loans as stocks or as flows in his model. This note demonstrates that both model specifications are dimensionally stock-flow consistent. Hence, Johnson’s criticism is just a narrative behind the rationale of altering flows in the model; the controversy is not on dimensional stock-flow inconsistency but on the logically coherent specification of the magnitude of flows in the model.     

Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input–Output Models

This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied $\text{ CO }_{2}$ emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input–output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result from the use of domestic environmental and domestic technology coefficients to estimate emissions or resources that are embodied in international trade. For $\text{ CO }_{2}$ footprints, unacceptably large overestimations arise from using domestic emission coefficients, which are only partly canceled out by using domestic technology coefficients. For water use footprints both specification errors are smaller, but hardly cancel out. Sectoral aggregation errors occur when combining the 129 EXIOPOL industries to 59 EU industries and 10 broad sectors. The latter aggregation creates the largest errors. Spatial aggregation errors arise from combining 43 individual EXIOPOL countries in four broad regions and “the rest of the world”. Substantial, unacceptable errors occur again, now especially in relation to water use.