PPP模式在英国保障性住房中的应用

英国是住房保障体系比较完善的西方国家,也是在住房保障中运用PPP模式较为成熟的国家,自20世纪中期开始形成了一套以PPP模式为基础的住房保障措施。文章首先介绍了英国住房保障的发展过程以及其住房保障的特点,然后对三种主要PPP模式——大规模自愿转让(LSVTs)、臂长管理组织(ALMO)、私人主动融资(PFI)的基本内容,操作方法,结构形式等进行分析,最后结合英国经验对我国当前城市住房保障存在的问题进行评述,为住房问题研究和政策制定提供参考。     

我国保障性住房政策演变与构建

当前我国保障性住房体系分为出售型保障性住房和租赁型保障性住房两大类,其中出售型保障性住房主要包括经济适用住房和限价商品住房,租赁型保障性住房主要包括廉租住房和公共租赁住房。本文通过系统梳理这几类保障性住房的政策演变,构建我国保障性住房体系的发展方向。     

Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets

This paper extends the shift-contagion concept to housing price returns in order to examine co-movements between pairs of regional housing markets in the US. It associates nonlinearities of housing prices with the monetary policy criteria at disaggregate levels. The framework with Markov-switching volatility in Gravelle et al. (Journal of International Economics 68:409–423, 2006) is utilized to investigate housing contagion phenomena which are defined as the switches in the structural transmission of common shocks across regional housing markets. The empirical results suggest that interactions between regional and nationwide housing markets switch across low-volatility and high-volatility regimes of common shocks for the Northeast and the West whose housing price returns are nonlinear. In addition, there is the significantly time-varying interdependence between the West and each of the other three regional housing markets. The estimated indicator of the monetary policy effectiveness implies that monetary policies can be effective in the Northeast and the West because they are more closely linked with other regional housing markets in volatile phases which are subject to housing crises. Noticeably, the broken interrelationships between regional housing markets and real economies in the 2001 recession imply high vulnerability to housing bubbles for regional markets, while short-term monetary policies can be effective in stabilizing the housing market turmoil around 2007.     

Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market's unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal the recent housing bust three periods in advance.     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.     

School quality and housing prices: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment in Shanghai,China

The endogeneity of education quality and quantity accounts for difficulties in appropriately identifying the causal relationship between education and housing prices. To determine how education quality is capitalized into housing prices, we deal with endogeneity bias by employing a natural experiment occasioned by China’s education reforms. Based on monthly panel data for 52 residential areas in Shanghai, we conducted a natural experiment based on the exogenous designation of specific high-quality schools as Experimental Model Senior High Schools (EMSHS). Our natural experiment proved useful in analyzing how new information affected housing prices in China’s developing housing market. We found evidence that housing prices included allowances for these new EMSHS designations. In general, the presence of an additional EMSHS (of the best quality) per square kilometer increases housing prices by 17.1%. If one additional, previously non-designated high school is designated as EMSHS in a residential area, housing prices will be 6.9% higher.     

Housing Preferences of Temporary Migrants in Urban China in the wake of Gradual Hukou Reform: A Case Study of Shenzhen

In the wake of the recent announcement by the State Council concerning the provision of public rental housing across China, and the gradual reform of China's household registration system (hukou), this article explores how potential adjustments in government housing policies (namely access to public rental housing) influence the housing preferences of temporary migrants who are currently residing inside the chengzhongcun (urban villages) of Shenzhen. The results indicate that dissatisfaction with rental cost and living conditions in these urban villages are the key reasons for migrants wishing to move into public rental housing if it is offered to them — and not the fact that they are treated differently within the hukou system. Public rental housing is welcomed in particular by newly arriving migrants who live outside the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEZ), and migrants who have decided to remain in Shenzhen for the foreseeable future. By contrast, dissatisfaction with urban villages is the sole contributor to housing preferences for those residing inside the SEZ.     

Does the low-income housing tax credit increase the supply of housing?

The low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) was originated in conjunction with the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA 86) to provide incentives for private sector production of low-income housing. In this note we examine whether these units have added to the existing stock or merely substituted for unsubsidized units that otherwise would have been built. We explicitly control for effects of the number of other supply-side (e.g., public housing, Section 8 New Construction, Section 236 housing) and demand-side (vouchers and Section 8 Certificates) subsidies. From estimations of a simple cross-state model of the determinants of the stock of housing per 1000 population, we find no significant relationship between the number of LIHTC units (and other subsidized units) built in a given state and the size of the current housing stock, suggesting a high rate of substitution. However, our test is not sufficiently powerful to reject some alternative null hypotheses that suggest a lower rate of substitution, and we make some suggestions for future research.     

PRIVATIZED HOUSING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONDOMINIUMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: THE CASES OF POLAND, HUNGARY, SLOVAKIA, AND ROMANIA

This paper looks at the housing sector reform in Central and Eastern Europe and examines the progress to date in housing privatization and policies aimed at improving the management and condition of the existing housing stock through the establishment and operation of the condominium form of ownership. The paper compares and analyzes approaches taken in four countries with regard to four issues: (I) the legal framework and implementation strategies; (2) the role of local government housing strategies in supporting the development of viable condominium associations; (3) property management of privatized housing; and (4) financing rehabilitation and capital repair projects for condominiums. Findings include the need for a clear legal framework, competition in the property management market, more supportive local government policies, and public sector support in tackling rehabilitation finance issues.     

土地政策和城市住房发展

本文首先分析了北京的住房市场 ,然后对住房价格的构成及其变化进行了分析 ,结合微观经济学理论 ,总结出北京市房价高的原因 ,即 ,(1)房地产开发过程中没有不变成本 ,因而没有规模经济 ;(2 )根据基准地价系统 ,容积率决定地价 ,这一方面与西方城市经济学理论相悖 ,另一方面使房地产商没有经济利益驱动 ,资源没有得到合理强度地利用。最后 ,本文提出了进一步改革的建议和对策。     

Housing as a Means of Sustainable Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia

This paper addresses the economic crisis in Southeast Asia as it effects the housing sector there. Our basic argument is that the lower end of the formal housing market sector (worker housing) provides the best opportunity to restore productive employment activity while addressing basic housing needs. We call for a range of policy measures to support this outcome, based in part on the recent experience in Japan with declining real estate markets. The policies include limited subsidies, guarantees and insurance for housing loans, along with a downward indexing of housing loans, strategic infrastructure investment and promotion of local building materials. These measures are necessary under the current circumstances of deficient aggregate demand. The key is to target demand increments where they are most likely to meet the basic need for shelter while generating productive market-based activity.     

异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据

基于异方差修正的久期似然模型,利用北京市新建商品住房市场大样本数据,实证检验了城市住房异质性特征对住房市场交易风险率的影响效果及其稳健性。实证结果表明,地铁及通勤设施、教育资源、医疗资源和休闲购物等因素对新建商品住房交易速度的影响逐次减弱,且上述影响在大户型住房、预售住房以及小规模项目住房中更加显著。结论可以为市场参与者调整住房交易决策提供依据,也可以为政府制定住房市场和保障性住房相关政策提供参考。     

Late Neoliberalism: The Financialization of Homeownership and Housing Rights

Over the last few decades we have witnessed a global U‐turn in prevailing housing and urban policy agendas, spread around the world by the driving forces of globalization and neoliberalism. The new paradigm was mainly based on the withdrawal of states from the housing sector and the implementation of policies designed to create stronger and larger market‐based housing finance models. The commodification of housing, together with the increased use of housing as an investment asset within a globalized financial market, has profoundly affected the enjoyment of the right to adequate housing. Taking the World Bank's 1993 manifesto as a starting point and the subprime crisis as its first great international flashpoint, this essay traces some key elements of the neoliberal approach to housing and its impact on the enjoyment of the right to housing in different contexts and times. The reform of housing policy — with all its components of homeownership, private property and binding financial commitments — has been central to the political and ideological strategies through which the dominance of neoliberalism is maintained. Conversely, the crisis (and its origins in the housing market) reflects the inability of market mechanisms to provide adequate and affordable housing for all.     

2011-2015年西安市经济适用房需求量的预测研究

经济适用房是我国住房保障体系的重要组成部分,而经济适用房供不应求的现象成为现今住房体系的一重大问题。运用灰色理论原理,构建了西安市的经济适用房住房需求量的模型,给出了2011年至2015年未来五年西安市的经济适用房住房需求量预测结果,通过分析表明模型能够较好的预测经济适用房需求量的发展趋势,具有较强的实用性。     

Housing and cost of living: Application to the Spanish regions

Spain is a home-owner economy, and housing is a key good for determining the cost of living. However, its treatment in indices such as the Spanish Consumer Price Index (CPI) makes it impossible to measure the real impact of housing on the cost of living. This issue is especially relevant at the regional level, where the differences in the housing markets are very substantial. This paper demonstrates the importance of taking account of owner occupied housing in a measure of the cost of living for Spain.     

城市化进程中流动人口的住房保障问题研究——兼谈推行公共租赁住房制度

目前在中国已经建立起以住房公积金制度、经济适用房制度和廉租房制度为主要内容的住房保障体系.但是,现行的住房保障体系只关注了城市中户籍居民的住房问题,而忽视了现代社会发展的人口流动性所带来的住房保障问题,这已经成为我国城市化进程存在的一个突出问题.迫切需要推行公共租赁住房制度,构建一个阶梯式多层次住房保障系统结构和模式,解决城市不同群体的住房特殊问题.     

THE SIZE OF HOUSING SUBSIDIES IN CHINA*

Inexhaustible, strong demand for housing, which is generated from the current low rents and the work-unit-distribution housing system, has caused permanent housing shortages in China's urban sector. It is also one of the main sources of China's cost-push inflation. The transition from public to private saving, which is included in current housing reform, is the only way to solve the housing problems facing the country. Calculation of the size of housing subsidies is the very foundation of any housing reform program. Based on my estimates, the annual housing subsidy per woker expanded 8.6 limes during the period from 1978 to 1988, increasing at an anual rate of 24.1%. Total housing subsidies expanded 12.4 times, rising at an annual rate of 28.6%. Relative to GNP, the housing subsidies grew from 1.3% to 4.2% during the period. The rapid expansion of housing subsidies has several significant policy implications for China's economy. These include the need for reappraising real worker income identifying the enlarged portion of revenue in kind, and recalculating housing consumption.     

A Housing Career Perspective on Risk

The main question analyzed in the article is how uncertainty in the asset price of owner-occupied housing capital affects user costs and consequently housing demand. The analysis is performed within the framework of a dynamic model of planned housing careers. Owner-occupied housing has a dual role as both an asset and a consumption good—a consumption good both now and in the future. By holding owner-occupied housing capital, the risk associated with future purchase of housing can be reduced. Taking account of this, it is shown that the risk premium in the user cost is negative for consumers on a sufficient increasing path of future housing consumption. Hence, the demand for owner-occupied housing of a risk-averse consumer can be increasing in asset price volatility. This result is contrary to the “conventional wisdom” in housing economics and can be identified only within an analytical framework that takes account of the dynamic aspects of housing market behavior.