European TA-discourses - European TA?

Is there a balance to be achieved between national technological assessment (TA) activities and the European level? What are the potential benefits of the European-level TA infrastructure both for the Community's own R&D and for national TA activities? This article discusses these questions in light of the different ways TA has been conceptualized in Europe, particularly in the light of the current debate on social shaping of technology and constructive TA. As a member of the VALUE II Think Tank group, I have also included a presentation of the initiatives of VALUE II to strengthen European TA infrastructure.     

A practical approach to R&D project selection

We present a technique to allocate available resources more systematically to competing R&D projects in a government laboratory setting. The technique is simpler than most models described in the literature, systematically utilizes the expertise of various organizational units in the corporation, and does not try to substitute complex calculations for good managerial judgment. The literature on R&D project selection models is briefly reviewed. Key factors identified are used to develop the approach. Details are presented on the sequence of the R&D project selection process through alternative levels of corporate management. Sample forms used for R&D ideas submittal and evaluation are included. Experiences gained from applying the approach in a large R&D laboratory are discussed.     

How to promote R&D-based growth? Public education expenditure on scientists and engineers versus R&D subsidies

This paper compares the positive and normative implications of two alternative measures to promote R&D-based growth: R&D subsidies to firms and publicly provided education targeted to the development of science and engineering (S&E) skills. The model accounts for the specificity of S&E skills, where individuals with heterogeneous ability choose their type of education. Although intertemporal knowledge spillovers are the only R&D externality, the analysis suggests that R&D subsidies may be detrimental to both productivity growth and welfare. Moreover, they raise earnings inequality. In contrast to R&D subsidies, publicly provided education targeted to S&E skills are found to be unambiguously growth-promoting and neutral with respect to the earnings distribution.     

Will Italy meet the ambitious European target for R&D expenditure? Natura non facit saltus

The paper addresses the issue as to whether the Italian scientific and technological system can achieve the Barcelona targets set by the heads of state and government (3% of GDP devoted to R&D by the year 2010) and by the R&D guidelines set by the Italian Ministry for Education, University, and Research (MIUR) (to achieve the level of 1.75% of the ratio in the year 2006).The projections built in the paper show that such objectives are well beyond Italy's potential, and that according to a “natura non facit saltus” (NNFS) projection, the country will be able to raise the ratio from 1.04% in 2002 to 1.55% in 2010. Such projection rests on rather optimistic assumptions: higher priority attached to R&D in the government budget, an increasing propensity of firms to invest their value added in R&D, and an increase of researchers' salaries.The difficulty to achieve the objectives set at the European and national level is due to the low starting point, to the lack of additional investment from 2001 to 2003, and to structural factors such as insufficient supply of qualified human resources, the small size of high-tech industry, and constraints imposed by the reduction of public spending.The attainment of R&D policy objectives is more and more dependent on education, industrial, and public budget policies; the issue of a thorough review of the governance of the whole S&T system at the national level is therefore raised. The situation is accentuated by the fact that decisions taken at national level are conditioned by the European union (through the Framework Program, the regulations regarding state aid to firms, etc.) by multinational enterprises, which operate on a global scale, and by regions in the framework of their autonomy.     

R&D spillovers, information technology and telecommunications, and productivity in ASIA and the OECD

This paper examines the role research and development (R&D) plays in technology progress for a sample of OECD and Asian economies from 1980 to 1995. An empirical model is estimated which relates total factor productivity to domestic and foreign R&D activity, trade, and information technology and telecommunications (ITT). Model estimates confirm a positive relationship between national productivity and R&D activity exists in the long run. Further, the benefits of R&D can spillover countries through trade, in particular, trade in ITT equipment.     

Joint R&D projects: Experiences in the context of European technology policy

Joint R&D projects have emerged as a significant model for the development of research and technological activities. Our study examines, through an exploratory analysis, the typology of joint R&D projects and the characteristics of R&D networks in which the projects are developed. In addition, the interrelation between the R&D projects in the context of European Technology Policy is analysed. Findings from survey data collected on joint R&D projects carried out in the context of European Framework Programmes indicate that three groups of R&D projects can be identified (invention, innovation and diffusion projects), and that each of these projects is managed inside the R&D network with a different degree of structuring and external opening. The analysis of interrelations between R&D projects also shows a low, non-linear and non-progressive interrelation. This conclusion is an important question to bear in mind in the design of scientific and technological policies.     

Public deficits and economic growth

Considering an integrated area, this paper deals with the balance between the positive effects in the degree of economic cohesion resulting from R&D subsidies, temporarily granted from an imitator and less developed country, and the external negative effects arising from the eventual creation of excessive public deficits.We propose and numerically solve a model of a monetary union between two countries, one being innovator and the other imitator. Results suggest the pertinence of allowing for a temporary differentiation of fiscal discipline rules in favour of the less developed country. R&D subsidies granted by this country seem to lead to an easier catching-up without producing important negative external effects, also as not hurting severely the conditions for long-run sustainability of public accounts.     

A dynamic model of R&D competition

This study considers a dynamic model of R&D competition in a situation of no uncertainty with identical firms in a perfect foresight. We are going to find out about the effects of firms' absorptive capacity on R&D strategies in the presence of technological spillovers. The conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a feedback–Nash equilibrium on firms' R&D expense will be also discussed. Numerical simulations will show as the introduction of the absorptive capacity reduces the impact of spillovers degree on firms' R&D strategies.     

Agglomeration, innovation and international research mobility

This paper discusses a model of the New Economic Geography, in which the seminal core-periphery model of Krugman [Krugman, P., 1991, Increasing returns and economic geography, Journal of Political Economy 99, 483–499.] is extended by endogenous research activities. Beyond the common ‘anonymous’ consideration of R&D expenditures within fixed costs, this model introduces in an analytically tractable approach vertical product differentiation in combination with a de-integrated R&D sector. In the context of international factor mobility, the destabilizing effects of a mobile scientific workforce are analyzed. Based upon a simple welfare analysis, a consideration of R&D promoting policy instruments and their spatial implications, this paper makes a contribution to the brain-drain debate.     

Can R&D-inducing green tariffs replace international environmental regulations?

This paper investigates the link between trade and environment by exploring the effects of green tariffs on innovation, location of production and the environment. It shows that tariffs levied on polluting goods could result in less world pollution than global harmonization of environmental standards by inducing more pollution-abatement R&D effort and generating lower unit emissions from production. Specifically, green tariffs reduce pollution by (1) shifting production to the region where environmental standards are respected, (2) inducing the firm in the clean country to engage in more abatement R&D by granting it a higher market power/share in its home market, (3) instigating green R&D investment by deterring delocation. When these outweigh the R&D-creating effect of environmental harmonization in the dirty country, green tariffs bring about a cleaner environment.     

Analysis of the Interaction between Regional R&D Productivity and the Investment Strategies of Multinational Enterprises

The aim of this article is to analyze the interaction between regional R&D productivity and the investment strategies of multinational enterprises. The discussion is based on the hypothesis that R&D investments cause a reduction in the production costs and an increase in firms’ market share; furthermore, R&D costs may be affected by national industrial policies. Supposing the existence of asymmetries in local research productivity, necessary and sufficient conditions for a geographical diversification of resources have been found. Suggestions with respect to the optimal allocation of R&D investment are finally derived.     

R&D cluster quality measures and technology maturity

“Innovation indicators” strive to track the maturation of an emerging technology to help forecast its prospective development. One rich source of information is the changing content of discourse of R&D, as the technology progresses. We analyze the content of research paper abstracts obtained by searching large databases on a given topic. We then map the evolution of that topic's emphasis areas.The present research seeks to validate a process that creates factors (clusters) based on term usage in technical papers. Three composite quality measures—cohesion, entropy, and F measure—are computed. Using these measures, we create standard factor groupings that optimize the composite term sets and facilitate comparisons of the R&D emphasis areas (i.e., clusters) over time.The conceptual foundation for this approach lies in the presumption that domain knowledge expands and becomes more application specific in nature as a technology matures. We hypothesize implications for this knowledge expansion in terms of the three factor measures, then observe these empirically for the case of a particular technology—autonomous navigation. These metrics can provide indicators of technological maturation.     

Too much of a good thing: Endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress

Following Jones and Williams [Jones, C.I., Williams, J., 2000. Too much of a good thing? The economics of investment in R&D. Journal of Economic Growth vol. 5 (no. 1), 65–85], we assume that R&D is simultaneously subject to positive and to negative external effects (e.g., the non-rival nature of technology conflicts with congestion externalities). This observation allows to conceive an economy where two R&D sectors evolve without departing significantly from each other in terms of their productive results (society tends to penalize imbalances in technical progress, making negative external effects to appear associated to a sector when this outstands relatively to the other sector; the second sector, in turn, will be subject to positive externalities that reflect a catching up effect). The proposed framework, when associated to a growth setup, is able to replicate the existence of endogenous fluctuations and, therefore, it intends to be a contribution to the literature on endogenous business cycles.     

Deregulation in an energy market and its impact on R&D for low-carbon energy technology

This paper analyzes the impact of deregulation in an energy market on R&D activities for new energy technology when climate policy is implemented. A model of growth with vertical innovation is modified by including an oligopolistic energy supply sector for demonstrating to what extent deregulation in the energy supply sector will affect R&D activities for low-carbon energy technology, provided that carbon taxation is implemented. The analysis shows that, when the elasticity of substitution between input factors is less than unity, deregulation will drive energy R&D activities and reduce CO₂ accumulation if the energy market is highly concentrated in the beginning.     

At the crossroads of “futurism” and “prospective”: Towards a Canadian synthesis?

North American “future studies” and the French concept of “prospective” have been integrated to provide the basis for an attempted “Canadian Synthesis” in the approach developed by the Montreal-based think-tank, the Gamma Institute. In this paper the founding president of Gamma outlines the four stages of the approach in a conceptual framework entitled the “Chronospace” and illustrates its applicability by referring to some of Gamma's projects in the last 12 years.     

The knowledge production of ‘R’ and ‘D’

Many studies investigate the relationship between R&D and patents applying knowledge production functions. Using aggregated R&D may underestimate the productivity of ‘R’, as mainly ‘R’ but not ‘D’ leads to patents. Disaggregating ‘R’ and ‘D’ shows a significant premium of ‘R’ towards patenting.     

Welfare and growth impacts of innovation policies in a small, open economy; an applied general equilibrium analysis

We explore how innovation incentives in a small, open economy should be designed in order to achieve the highest welfare and growth. The computable general equilibrium model we develop for the purpose allows for research and development (R&D)-driven endogenous technological change embodied in varieties of capital. We study policy alternatives targeted towards R&D, capital varieties formation, and domestic investments in capital varieties. Subsidising domestic investments, thereby excluding stimuli to world market deliveries, generates less R&D, capital formation, economic growth, and welfare than do the other alternatives, reflecting that the domestic market for capital varieties is limited. In spite of breeding stronger economic growth, a higher number of patents, and a higher share of R&D in total production, direct R&D support generates slightly less welfare than subsidising formation of capital varieties. The costs in terms of welfare relates to a lower production within each variety firm, which in presence of mark-up pricing results in efficiency losses.     

Leveraging resistance to change and the skunk works model of innovation

We study a situation in which an R&D department promotes the introduction of an innovation that results in costly re-adjustments for production workers. In response, the production department tries to resist change by improving the existing technology. Resistance to change triggers competition between departments, which, in turn, spurs effort. We show that firms balancing the strengths of the two departments perform better. As a negative effect, resistance to change might distort the R&D department's effort away from radical innovations. The firm can solve this problem by implementing the so-called skunk works model of innovation where the R&D department is isolated from the rest of the organization. Several implications for managing resistance to change and for the optimal design of R&D activities are derived.     

Toward an analytical industry classification

Two kinds of difficulties retard progress in technological forecasting uncertainties inherent in the subject itself and imprecision in its concepts. The latter difficulty exists whenever words have to be used in a general or traditional sense due to the lack of an agreed-upon operational definition. One such word and concept is industry [1]. The object of this paper is to present an operational definition of “industry” for use in forecasting, R&D, or innovative contexts, and to show how predictive, rather than just analogue, statements can then be made about industry and industries.