WORLD OUTLOOK

At the end of 1982 output in the world economy was still falling, although there were signs that the decline had very nearly run its course. We expect a radual recovery to begin in the first half o f 1983. Unlike the recovery which began in the late summer of 1980, when inflation was still in double figures, any upturn in 1983 would be set against a background of declining inflationary expectations and weak oil prices. IJ. as we expect, a falling inflation rate proves a decisive factor in keeping interest rates on a downward path, we forecast that the output will gather pace in I983 and rise reasonably strongly in 1984. Of the 4 per cent rise in industrial production which we foresee in 1984. a large part is due to the fall in real oil prices.     

常规稠油油藏三次采油技术优选方法研究

随着世界经济的发展,全球的能源消耗将会呈现一直持续增长的趋势,而石油作为核心的能源,是工业经济的命脉。面对这个现状提高原油采收率就变得十分重要,而三次采油技术无疑就是能够提高采收率的主要方法。以下对三次采油技术优选方法、钻修等方面进行了具体的分析和研究。     

Economic Viewpoint The Shape of the UK Recovery

Monthly economic data combined with the more optimistic tone of CBI and other surveys suggest that the recession may be drawing to a close. By the early summer it was becoming apparent that output was no longer falling; now it appears that the economy is in transition front the 'bumping along the bottom' phase, which lasted through the summer months, to the beginnings of a modest recovery in output and demand. The focus of interest is therefore switching away front the timing of recovery towards its shape and strength.
We have previously argued that the recovery would be led by consumer spending, that industry would not resume investment spending un ti1 demand elsewhere was picking up, and that although exports have held up remarkably well, taking some of the strain of the downturn in domestic demand, there was little prospect of a surge in world trade to provide the pre-conditions for an export-led recovery. What was and is needed is a recovery in consumer confidence, with a willingness to borrow at lower interest rates showing up in a reduction in the personal savings ratio.
But the recovery starts with the personal sector still having a large debt overhang from the 1988-9 boom, which will inevitably inhibit new borrowing. Meall while the credit crunch is restricting the ability of banks to lend. Together these imply only a limited response to the interest rate cuts of the last year and would, in the absence of the EMS link with high German interest rates, argue for further interest rate reductions. But high post-unification German rates put a floor under UK rates and will slow the recovery. The economy will do little more in 1992 than make up for the output losses of 1991 and our forecast (as in June) suggests that it will not be until 1993 that previous output peaks are passed and unemployment is stabilized.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

There has been a slowdown in activity in the world economy, but the outlook remains favourable with our forecast suggesting continued growth accompanied by low inflation. The recovery should become more balanced in nature in 1996, as the Japanese economy recovers and there is further moderation of growth in the United States. The need to reduce budget deficits, coupled with structural labour market rigidities, will mean only slow progress in reducing European unemployment.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

Suddenly the recovery is with us. After two months in which manufacturing output rose 2.5 per cent, there are few who doubt that a sustainable recovery is under way. While it is unlikely in the extreme that manufacturing will continue to grow at the rate of January-February, an annual rate of 15 per cent, and equally likely that there will still be some bad months, almost no one is dismissing the recent experience as another 'false dawn'. With retail sales rising steadily, and industrial surveys registering a marked upturn in business confidence, it would appear that the Chancellor's green shoots' are finally with us. Indeed, when the CSO conies to date the trough of the present cycle, it is likely to put it in the second quarter of last year. If this is the case, the first year of recovery will have been particularly weak, reminiscent of the experience in 1981-2 when the trough of the cycle was in February 1981 but it was not until late 1982 that a convincing recovery was under way. Given the apparent similarity between these two episodes, we draw comfort from the fact that (non-oil) GDP rose 1.3 per cent in 1982 and 2.8 per cent in 1983, in line with our February forecast of 1.3 per cent growth this year followed by 3.2 per cent in 1994.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

Clear signs that the world recovery is underway have e merged in the first half of 1983. We have revised our forecast upwards and predict an increase of 1 3/4 per cent in OECD GNP in I983 and a further 3% per cent in 1984. By hirtorical standards such a recovery would be extremely modest and would not be expected to trigger off a resurgence in inflation. If so GNP could advance a further 2% per cent in each of I985 and 1986. However, there is a danger that the relaration of monetary policy in the US in conjunction with the expansionary fiscal stance will bring about a very rapid upswing in the second half of 1983, thereby generating upward pressures on US interest rates. If, as the Presidential election approaches, these pressures are resisted and US monetary growth maintains its recent rapid expansion, an increase in the rate of inflation would be likely in 1984. If this were met with a tighter policy response (higher interest rates both in the US and elsewhere) after the election, the prospects would be for a sharp slowdown in the world economy in 1985.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

Our view of the world economy in the short-term has become more downbeat. However, the slowdown which emerged last year is still expected to prove short-lived and we expect economic prospects to improve over the course of 1996. Interest rates have fallen and the ability of the monetary authorities to relax policy against a background of low inflation provides a safeguard against a more severe slowdown. The world economy will also be supported this year by recovery in Japan and the continued buoyancy of the Asia/Pacific region.     

金融危机下的贸易保护主义及应对策略分析

为了应对经济危机,很多国家和地区纷纷出台贸易保护主义措施,这不仅不会刺激世界经济恢复增长,反而会阻碍世界经济复苏。在世界经济高度一体化的今天,世界各国只有加强合作与对话,减少贸易障碍,才能逐步从危机中走出来,促进世界经济的复苏。本文从当前贸易保护主义的表现特点出发,分析了贸易保护主义对我国的影响及应对策略。     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

对德宏州生物特色产业基地建设的思考

生物产业已经成为一个新的经济增长点,是整个经济增长平均数的8-10倍,其增长速度在25-30%。有专业人士预计,在本世纪内"生物经济"将成为新的全球性经济支柱,更有人认为,我们将以令人意想不到的速度踏入生物经济时代。和许多西方的发达国家和国内的部分地区相比,德宏无论从人才还是科研技术方面来说,都具有的非常大的潜力,其后发优势非常明显。通过社会的发展可以证明,后发地区才是真正实现科技革命、产业革命里程碑式发展的主要阵地。如果能够把握好这一战略机遇期,德宏绝对能发展成为生物产业强州。     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The world economic recovery, which began in the late summer of 1980, can now be seen as premature, in as much as 1980's short, sharp recession had achieved only a limited reduction in the rate of inflation. Economic policy, particularly in the United States, is once more geared to a reduction in the inflation rate even if this imposes costs in terms of lost output and higher unemployment. The consequent appreciation of the US dollar against the European currencies has - in spite of weakening oil and non-oil commodity prices in dollar terms - produced a further boost to European inflation and a subsequent tightening of policy in some countries, notably West Germany. In these circumstances we expect little or no growth in output in the world economy until the summer of 1982.     

THE ECONOMY AT A TURNING POINT

In this Forecast Release we assess the evidence from the economic indicators and the latest official statistics for the view that the economy is at a turning point. We conclude that, while last year's rapid decline in UK output is coming to an end, a broadly-based recovery of the UK economy is unlikely until the world economy starts to grow again. The business surveys suggest that the upturn in European economy is less well established than the UK recovery. It may also be delayed further by high interest rates. The world turning point is thus likely to be some months later than die UK turning point, despite the strong upswing in the US. This implies that the UK recovery could be somewhat hesitant in the coming months.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The strength of US domestic demand is exerting a very strong pull on the world economy. Japan in particular is benefiting from soaring export demand, but the effects on European exports have been offset by weak domestic demand and, in the case of West Germany and the UK, by damaging industrial disputes which have interrupted supply. Over the next 12 months we expect the US economy to slow down under the weight of the financial and external balance pressures, which two years of very rapid but unbalanced growth have built up. For the world economy, however, we expect the slowdown in the US to be counterbalanced by expanding domestic demand in Europe and Japan, especially if a lower dollar permits reductions in interest rates. We forecast world output growth of about 3 per cent next year, well below the near-5 per cent projected for 1984 - the cyclical peak. By the second half of 1985 the world recovery will be three years old and we expect a pause in the growth of output. Against a background of stable monetary growth we expect world inflation in the 5–6 per cent range over the medium term. This is consistent with some increase in US inflation, low and stable inflation in Japan and West Germany and further progress in reducing inflation in countries such as France and Italy. Our forecast is based on the assumption that the dollar falls next year. If it does not fail we believe there is a significant risk of slower growth.     

新阶段推动首都经济科学发展的战略思考

目前,首都经济开始进入由投资导向阶段向创新导向阶段迈进的关键时期。站在世界城市建设的战略高度,按照国家加快转变发展方式的要求,审视首都经济发展,与纽约、东京世界城市相比仍有较大差距。未来应更加注重高端引领、创新驱动和绿色发展,加快形成科技创新、文化创新"双轮驱动"发展格局。     

有关GIS的架构与应用

随着现代科学技术的迅猛发展,世界将进入以创新为基础的知识经济时代,科学技术将成为经济发展的最重要的资源和首要的推动力,同时更是全球可持续发展战略的核心。站在知识创新的高度、时代的高度、战略地位的高度,发展GIS成为新世纪全球科技信息化的热点。这篇文章针对GIS的架构、以及实用性来简要探讨GIS的重要性。     

World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

The Medium term Outlook

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium-term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985-6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.     

THE MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium-term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985-6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.     

论区域经济的视域与关切——新冠肺炎疫情的启示

人们对现实经济的认识,实际上是被一定的范式承诺所“框定”的。范式承诺决定了观察和感受经济的视域境界,视域境界决定了人们所看到的经济世界图景。人们观察和判断经济现象并非只有一个永远不变的视域,视域实际上是多样的,而且是可能会发生变化的。新冠肺炎疫情突出显示了视域境界和社会关切的改变,如何产生巨大的社会性影响,决定着对社会经济的态势判断的思维倾向。在其影响下,区域经济态势几乎断然改变,进入了“另一个世界”。信息传播使得域际关切更为突出,各地区都希望增强信息透明度,作为进行政策安排和民心安定的重要条件。新冠肺炎疫情使我们更深切地理解供给侧结构性改革的普遍性意义。让整个系统的各个方面都更具内在活力、反应效能和责任担当,国家治理体系和能力才能实现现代化。经历这次新冠肺炎疫情之后,整个国家及各地区经济,将进入一个浴火重生般的新视域世界,关切取向必将有新的选择,值得区域经济学者们进行更深入的研究。     

THE MARKET ECONOMY AND THE TEACHINGS OF THE CHRISTIAN GOSPEL

The reality of the market economy is not an economy in which Christian values are generally evident. Although there are many prominent Christian capitalist writers, the real world is a world of rather more materialistic values. It does not have to be like that. It is possible for people to take Christian values out into the world of business and prosper.