The role of comparative advantage in trade within industries: A panel data approach for the European Union

The Role of Comparative Advantage in Trade within Industries: A Panel Data Approach for the European Union. — A large share of EU member states trade is intra-industry trade (IIT) in the period 1985-1996; in particular, IIT is based on products differentiated in quality (vertical IIT). Moreover, exports from southern countries are located mainly at the lower end of the price-quality spectrum, whereas those countries with higher per capita incomes are located at the higher end. According to the vertical IIT models, we hypothesize that commercial specialization of members states over the quality spectrum within industries is explained by differences in technological, physical and human capital. The results show that comparative advantage is an important driver of the pattern of European trade within industries.     

Structural change in the Russian far east: The implications for trade and factor markets

This study compares actual directions of structural adjustment in the Russian Far East since the collapse of the former Soviet Union with estimated directions of adjustment that would be predicted to follow an opening of the region to the world market. How would moving to world prices affect the competitiveness of individual sectors of the Russian Far East? This author estimates the impact of changing terms of trade by revaluing a 1987 input-output table for the Russian Far East by price relatives between internal Soviet prices and world prices estimated by David Tarr [1992]. These estimates measure apparent competitiveness of each sector at world prices and identify four sectors of the Russian Far East—food processing, forest products, light industry, and the chemical industry—as negative value added sectors at world prices. However, actual short-run directions of adjustment in 1992–94 are only partly consistent with the directions predicted in the model. Measured gains from trade are strong on the import side but not on the export side.     

The economic and environmental implications of the US repudiation of the kyoto protocol and the subsequent deals in Bonn and Marrakech

The Economic and Environmental Implications of the US Repudiation of the Kyoto Protocol and the Subsequent Deals in Bonn and Marrakech. — Taking account of sinks credits as agreed in Bonn and Marrakech, this paper illustrates how market power could be exerted in the absence of the US ratification under Annex 1 emissions trading and explores the potential implications of the non-competitive supply behavior for the international market of tradable permits, compliance costs for the remaining Annex 1 countries and the environmental effectiveness. The results show that the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol leads to no real emission reduction in all remaining Annex 1 regions. The results also indicate that the overall compliance costs of all remaining Annex 1 regions in the case of the former Soviet Union (FSU) cooperating with the Eastern European countries could reach as much as two times that in the case of only FSU acting as a monopoly. Moreover, curtailing permit supply by market power substantially increases the overall environmental effectiveness, although to much less extent than in the case of the US ratification. A Monte Carlo simulation supports the robustness of our quantitative findings.     

Has International Trade Affected Workers’ Bargaining Power?

In this paper, we investigate whether globalization has affected workers’ bargaining power in the Belgian manufacturing industry over the period 1987–1995 using a sample of more than 20,000 firms. We find little evidence of international trade and inward foreign direct investment having an impact on the workers’ bargaining power. We find some evidence that technological change has a positive impact on the workers’ bargaining power. JEL no. C23, D21, F16, F23, J50, L13     

Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Spanish experience

Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from the Spanish Experience. — The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on firms’ productivity using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1990–1998. Firstly, we show that for countries, like Spain, that are undergoing significant structural changes over the period in question it is important to control for both time-invariant as well as time-variant sectoral characteristics. Secondly, we confirm previous findings that one needs to take into account the “absorptive capacity” of firms when considering whether they are able to avail of externalities associated with FDI presence. For the Spanish case we find that only firms with sufficient levels of such capacity experience positive spillovers.     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15     

Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of bilateral trade flows among 47 countries and, particularly, the effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas: European Union (EU), North-American Free Trade Area NAFTA), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Centro-American Common Market (CACM), and other Mediterranean countries (MEDIT). The period under study is from 1980–99. The authors estimate a gravity equation that allows the comparison of the weight of the influence of preferential agreements and also, infers the relevance of other determinants of bilateral trade flows such us geographic proximity, income levels, population, and cultural similarities. The analysis is undertaken for each year of the sample in order to capture the temporal evolution of the impacts on trade of the different variables considered. Using the estimation results as a base, trade potentials resulting from new free trade agreements are calculated.     

The bases of Soviet power in the Third World

This paper examines the process by which the Soviet Union has attempted to establish, maintain and extend its influence in the various regions of the Third World. The author traces the evolution of these relations through the stage of establishing diplomatic relations during the decolonization period and that of the USSR's attempts to harmonize its approach to trade relations with its own strategy of economic development. However, the USSR's natural economic ties with the South were very weak and it therefore chose to favour military assistance over economic aid – an option which it felt would create stronger links of dependency between the recipient countries of the South and the USSR, and thus would reinforce the bases of Soviet power around the world.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

Currency transactions and Customs flows in the foreign economic relations of a region (Based on the example of Rostov oblast)

The paper considers currency and financial transactions in Rostov oblast in the peroid 2000–2010. The change in the composition of bank sector operators is analyzed. Methods are suggested for analyzing the interrelation between currency and Customs operations and commodity flows that allows one to reveal the role of a separate region within the Russian Federation as a transit territory for exported and imported goods in foreign trade supplies of other regions.     

Economic Integration and Manufacturing Concentration Patterns: Evidence from MERCOSUR

Over the past two decades, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have implemented unilateral trade liberalization programs and formed MERCOSUR. The effects of these reforms on production structures in these countries have not received a great deal of attention. This paper analyses patterns of relative manufacturing concentration in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay over the period 1985–1998. Our results indicate that localisation of demand and comparative advantages are the main driving forces of these patterns. The establishment of MERCOSUR has fostered the relative importance of factor endowments and production linkages in shaping the spatial distribution of manufacturing in the above three countries. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F15, L60, C23     

Outsourcing and skill-specific employment in a small economy: Austria after the fall of the Iron Curtain

We set up a model, in which firms in a small industrializedcountry outsource part of their production to a foreign economy,which is rich in low-skilled labour. We analyse, how a declinein trade costs affects outsourcing activities and the productionstructure in the small economy. A stimulation of cross-borderoutsourcing raises wage dispersion and, if labour markets areunionized, also the employment of high-skilled relative to low-skilledlabour. Using a panel of Austrian industries, we find, first,that decreasing trade barriers—as observed after the fallof the Iron Curtain—indeed stimulate outsourcing to Centraland Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and, second,that outsourcing to these countries significantly shifts relativeemployment in favour of high-skilled labour.     

Foreign direct investment and factor prices in U.S. manufacturing

Foreign Direct Investment and Factor Prices in U.S. Manufacturing. —We investigate whether inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can explain part of the increase in relative wages of skilled workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1977–1994 by studying the sector bias of the effects of FDI on sector prices and technology. We follow the two-stage mandated-wage approach based on the StolperSamuelson theorem. We find that inward FDI affects the sum of sector prices and productivity depending on the absorptive capacity available in the sector. We also find some evidence that inward FDI has induced a sector bias towards using skilled workers over the period 1977–1994.     

Intra-industry trade as an indicator of labor market adjustment

Intra-Industry Trade as an Indicator of Labor Market Adjustment. — A growing body of recent empirical research uses measures of change in intra-industry trade as indicators of labor market adjustment. In this paper, we argue that the theoretical foundations for this work are problematic. To make this argument we develop a simple model with both inter- and intra-industry trade and adjustment. We find that changes in domestic absorption, which influence trade flows but which are distinct from production changes, make changes in IIT an unreliable guide to labor market pressure.     

Intra-regional trade and business cycles in Southeast Asia

Conclusion In this note we considered the relationship between trade integration and the cross-country correlation of business cycle activity in southeast Asia. We found a positive and significant relationship between the degree of bilateral trade intensity and the cross-country bilateral correlation of business activity over the period 1986–1996, a period when trade integration was proceeding rapidly. Thus, the Frankel and Rose (1997) finding that more trade integration between industrialized countries tends to result in more highly synchronized business cycles, appears to be robust to a sample of countries which have diverse income levels and economic structures and are likely to have less bilateral intraindustry trade.     

Long-term development prospects of the Russian information and communications sector

This paper presents a development forecast for the Russian information and communications sector. Two scenarios-inert and innovative investment—are explored for each period. According to the results of our study, in the period from 2010 to 2030, the output of the Russian information and communications sector will increase by a factor of 3.52–4 under the investment scenario and by a factor of 2–2.5 under the inert scenario. This is due to the limited private and public resources that could be invested in the sector on a large scale, as well as to the absence of basic innovation in the area of information and communication technologies, which could have a significant economic impact and provide a basis for a new technological order. It is concluded that the information and communications sector is running out of its market expansion potential.     

Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?

Using regional gross product data for Argentina and Brazil over the period 1961–2000, we find that business cycle synchronization within countries is substantially larger than across them. Factors such as monetary policy and large country-specific shocks play a significant role in explaining this observed border effect. Furthermore, our GMM single and multiple equation estimates based on Brazilian states and Argentinean national data provide indicative evidence that the higher level of trade among regions within a country is an important factor that accounts for differences in output correlations across countries. JEL no. F15, F42, E32, R11     

The effect of tariff reductions on firm size and firm turnover in canadian manufacturing

Using panel data on 81 Canadian manufacturing industries over the 1983–1996 period, the authors show that the estimated impact of recent tariff cuts was a positive and significant increase in the exit rate of firms. Supplementing this finding with recent research showing, that exiting firms tend to be less productive than those that survive, this provides support for recent trade models asserting that increased exposure to international trade induces the exit of least efficient firms, thereby contributing to productivity growth. JEL no. F1, L6