RATIONING, SPILLOVER, AND INTERLINKING IN CREDIT MARKETS: THE CASE OF RURAL PUNJAB

A parallel market structure may exhibit extensive rationingin the regulated segment, and hence spillover of unsatisfieddemand into the unregulated segment of the market. In the lattersegment, the borrower can choose to bundle loan contracts withoutput marketing through the lender. Using data on Punjabi cultivators,econometric estimation of such a structure yields three principalfindings: (i) most borrowers and non-borrowers were rationedin the regulated market; (ii) demand for credit was fairly inelasticwith respect to the interest rate; (iii) a contractual provisiontying credit to output marketing made informal lenders willingto advance much bigger loans. One pana and a quarter is the lawful rate of interest per monthon one hundred panas, five panas for purposes of trade, tenpanas for those going through forests, twenty panas for thosegoing by sea. For one charging or making another charge a ratebeyond that, the punishment shall be the lowest fine for violence,for witnesses, each one of them, half the fine. If, however,the King is unable to ensure protection, the Qudge) should takeinto consideration the usual practice among creditors and debtors.The Kautiliya Arthasastra (a fourth century BC work on kingshipand statecraft).     

CREDIT DEMAND AND CREDIT RATIONING IN THE INFORMAL FINANCIAL SECTOR IN UGANDA1

This paper investigates the household and individual characteristics that influence the demand and supply of informal credit in Uganda, which credit is important for improving the welfare of the poor. Informal credit demand is positively and significantly influenced by age, sex, education level, dependency ratio, household expenditure, and regional location. On the supply side, informal lenders' credit rationing behaviour is negatively and significantly influenced by age, sex, asset values, and regional location. Government policies should focus on increasing both the productive capacity and wealth of households in order to enhance the poor's creditworthiness and make them less susceptible to credit rationing by lenders.     

OPPORTUNITIES AND COSTS OF PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION IN SADC'S SMALLEST EQUITY MARKETS

This paper contrasts the performance of three time series models, a simple stochastic drift, GARCH, and a time varying parameter CAPM for three of SADC's smallest equity markets: Namibia, Swaziland and Mozambique. Analysis of the portfolio characteristics for each reveals the level of integration with South Africa using optimised portfolio frontiers. In addition, the implications of adopting a minimum investment retention levy by the smaller states is examined. Namibia is found to exhibit the greatest degree of integration with South Africa, followed to a much lesser extent by Swaziland with Mozambique. The evidence suggests that investors in the smaller markets would face considerable additional costs should such a policy be adopted.     

CAPITAL STRUCTURES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS: THE CASE OF HUNGARY

This paper studies developments in the Hungarian capital markets during 1992–95 and investigates the determinants of the capital structures of companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. Hungarian companies had very low leverage ratios. Empirical findings indicate that the negative relationship between leverage and proportion of tangible assets was primarily caused by the lack of long‐term debt financing. The relationship between leverage and the size of the company provides some indication of the importance of trade credits for the companies. The more profitable companies had less debt than less profitable ones. This is attributed to the firms’financial incentives aggravated by the segmentation of Hungarian credit markets and credit rationing within the financial environment. Manufacturing firms and firms with the state among their major shareholders enjoyed higher levels of debt financing relative to other companies.     

ON THE MOTHER AND CHILD LABOR NEXUS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: FINDINGS FROM RURAL INDIA

There is an emerging consensus that lack of credit is a major cause of child labor and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of resources. At the same time, patterns in how children spend their time appear to be strongly influenced by maternal employment decisions. This paper includes an assessment of the effect of credit constraints on maternal employment and that of maternal employment on the intrahousehold allocation of labor, a nexus which has been left unexplored by existing studies. Three findings emerge: (1) a mother is more likely to work outside when a household lacks resources, and her domestic labor can be easily replaced by other members, (2) credit market accessibility is one of the major determinants of maternal labor, and (3) elder daughters assume a large part of the burden of maternal employment by providing domestic labor. Under binding credit constraints, results of this study support the collective as opposed to the unitary model of households.     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

PRICE ELASTICITIES AND PRICING POWER IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF PETROCHEMICAL‐DERIVED PLASTICS IN SOUTH AFRICA1

This paper examines whether there necessarily exists a conflict between allocative and productive efficiency in small open economy markets. That productive efficiency favours market concentration is not in dispute, and the sole question we face is whether allocative efficiency suffers under high market concentration. We proceed theoretically and econometrically. We find that the conflict between productive and allocative efficiency is not necessarily as stringent as the international competition policy literature suggests should be the case. In particular, we note that the strategic interaction between the large domestic producer and its competitors makes feasible a range of alternative price elasticities of demand, and empirically that all price elasticities of demand are less than or equal to unity. Nevertheless, the impact of market structure is such as to render feasible a wide range of possible levels of pricing power.