国债政策可持续性问题研究

本文首先对什么是国债政策可持续性给予定义,然后从经济负担、经济效应两方面分析了我国国债政策的可持续性.提出:①只要政治稳定,民众对政府保持信任与信心,则国债余额大也没有问题.但同时要考虑我国各类隐性的和或有债务规模.②未来几年仍要保持一定规模的长期国债,但积极财政政策的转型与调整是必要的,其作用方法与手段应有所变化.③开放新的投资领域,激活民间投资,建立适应民营经济发展的金融中介机构和金融服务体系.     

Beverage Container Deposit Laws: A Survey of the Issues and Results

Much of the movement toward mandatory beverage deposit legislation has withered away in the current anti-regulation mood of the country. Even before the change in mood, the major focus of deposit laws was moving away from litter control and toward energy and resource savings. In fact, deposit laws have had a variety of repercussions on such factors as jobs, consumer prices, industry capital expenditures, energy consumption, and litter. The cooling emotions and lapse in time since most of the regulations were enacted provide a good opportunity to sort through the arguments and review the results. This paper attempts to present a balanced view of the issues surrounding this complicated topic. It find that the consequences of mandatory deposits have generally been somewhere between the initial predictions of groups favoring legislation and those opposing it.     

A Next Step in Debt Enforcement: the Merger of Debt Help and Debt Collection

Since the 1990s, each Member State of the European Union designed a policy that infused the liberal American fresh start policy into its own social institutions and legal culture. Especially in countries with a civil law tradition, the legal position of the consumer has improved. The paradigm of lifelong liability of debts has been replaced by a form of limited liability. Discharge of debts has established itself as a firm legal principle in all European jurisdictions. In most European countries, the new approach consists of a combination of legal and extrajudicial instruments. Under the umbrella of the courts, social workers, trustees, and administrators perform a broad range of activities in monitoring and helping debtors. The so-called new-chance approach has dramatically changed the playing field amongst debtors and creditors. The new legal equilibrium worked rather well in most European countries in the 1990s and 2000s. However, the systems are obviously far from perfect as almost all European governments are still fine-tuning their laws. Recently, two innovations have appeared on the European stage: Some Nordic countries have opted for a centralized state-controlled enforcement system, while in the UK, commercial debt management plans were developed, mainly by commercial suppliers. In 2005, the US Bankruptcy Code was changed in favour of the creditors. The 2008 credit crunch and its aftermath present a window of opportunity for the next step in the modernization of debt enforcement policy. I will suggest a merger of the fields of debt relief and debt collection, with a pivotal role for independent trustees.     

A Survey of Capital Budgeting Techniques in the Public and Private Sectors of a Less Developed Country (LDC)

ABSTRACT

This study surveys the capital budgeting practice in private and commercially-oriented public sector enterprises in the Sudan, an African Less Developed Country (LDC). The study attempts to fill a gap in the existing literature by documenting the capital budgeting practice in an LDC where the economic environment is different than the developed and developing counterparts and where public sector still plays a major role in the economy.

The study found a sizable number of commercially-oriented public corporations that do not use capital budgeting techniques in their capital investment decisions while the majority of private sector companies use these methods. Among the corporations that use capital budgeting methods, both in the public and private sector, the payback method (PB) is the most widely used method, followed by the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) in the private sector and the public sector respectively.

The study also revealed additional factors such as cost, size, quality, experience and hard currency requirements that affect the capital budgeting process in both sectors. However, there are differences in the level of importance of these factors between the two sectors.     

Analytical Issues in External Financing Alternatives for SBEs

As the amount of information about an enterprise is generally not neutral with respect to firm size, financiers have problems to identify the default risk associated with a borrower or to have control over a borrower's investments. This review paper analyses how various control mechanisms are fit to reduce this information problem and how various types of capital suppliers are endowed to finance small business enterprises.     

世贸组织金融服务市场准入规则实施与完善中的问题及分析

世贸组织《服务贸易总协定》及其附件初步确立了金融服务市场准入的规则体系,构建了实现金融服务贸易逐步自由化的法律框架。然而,这一规则体系远非完善和成熟,世贸组织金融服务市场准入规则的实施与完善还面临着诸多问题。正确分析和认识这些问题,是未来进一步构造金融服务市场准入规则体系的重要步骤。     

中国地方债务的债券化与发行市政债券的挑战

中国现行<预算法>禁止地方政府举债,但事实上地方债务规模之大,种类之多,增长之快,已不容小视.基于这种状况,本文认为,虽然发行市政债券不能从根本上解决地方债务问题,但是,通过地方债务的债券化,有利于减轻和化解地方债务问题,并充分发挥债券市场操作规范、信息透明以及监督有力的优势,对加强地方财政的约束和监督,提高地方政府债务管理将起到积极的促进作用.从市政债券发展的国际经验来看,成熟的市政债券市场所具有的特征,恰恰是中国发展市政债券市场所面临的挑战.     

论开放经济条件下公债效应的理论与现实问题

本文从理论的角度分析了开放经济条件下公债与利率、汇率、资本流动与积累、储蓄、消费以及经济增长的相互影响机制,认为若将他国居民看作"异质经济主体"时,李嘉图等价定理在开放环境中是不成立的,亦即公债对一国经济增长有着自己独特的效应,并且从美日间关系中佐证了这一点.由于我国利率仍未市场化,使得公债与对外收支的关系机制尚不明确,但随着对外开放进程的加快及利率市场化改革的进展,公债政策的运用应当考虑到对海外部门收支的影响.     

Using the Survey of Consumer Finances: Some Methodological Considerations and Issues

We identify and present original analyses of four methodological issues related to using Survey of Consumer Finances data sets and illustrate these issues with recent articles published in this journal. The issues are recognizing that the respondent is not necessarily the household head, reporting race and ethnicity in conformity with Survey of Consumer Finances and federal standards, using the repeated‐imputation inference method to combine the five implicates in each survey year’s data set, and discussing the use of weighted or unweighted data in multivariate analysis. We found a considerable variation in how authors dealt with these issues, which could hinder replication or comparison of research results. Authors and reviewers should consider methodological issues related to the Survey of Consumer Finances more carefully.     

对我国国债流动性问题的政策思考

国债流动性是我国国债市场建设的核心问题.与工业化国家相比,我国国债的各项流动性指标均处于较低的水平.国债流动性差不仅弱化了国债利率担当市场基准利率的重任,也使之无法成为衍生金融产品的基础工具.为提高国债流动性,我国应促进国债品种的多样性、提高国债发行的规律性、增强市场透明度、加快推进市场的统一化进程、加快市场参与者多元化进程、积极发展场外市场(OTC)交易等.     

The Tax Sensitivity of Debt in Multinationals: A Review

The OECD in its BEPS Action Plan Four addresses tax base erosion by profit shifting through the use of tax deductible interest payments. Their main concern is interest deductions between outbound and inbound investment by groups. Studies of multinational firms show that the tax sensitivity of debt is more modest than one would expect given the incentives for profit shifting. The purpose of this paper is to review existing literature and add to knowledge on multinational firm behavior that pertains to the use of debt.     

International Debt Shifting: The Value-Maximizing Mix of Internal and External Debt

Abstract

We study the capital structure of multinationals and expand previous theory by incorporating international debt tax shield effects from both internal and external capital markets. We show that: (i) multinationals’ firm value is maximized if both internal and external debt are used to save tax; (ii) the use of internal and external debt is independent of each other; and (iii) multinationals have a tax advantage over domestic firms, which cannot shift debt across international borders. We test our model using a large panel of German multinationals and find that internal and external debt shifting are of about equal importance.     

企业债务融资的治理效应研究综述

对国内外关于债务融资治理效应问题的理论和经验研究债务融资的治理机制;债务融资治理效应的经验;中国上市公司债务融资实现治理效应的约束条件进行综述,并对现有文献存在的问题和不足之处进行简评,以此为研究债务融资对公司治理的效应提供思路。     

Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo‐Kaleckian Synthesis

We present a neo‐Kaleckian growth model with both consumer and corporate debt. The model's macrodynamic and stability characteristics differ from singleߚdebt models, yet some steadyߚstate results persist. For example, a surge in ‘animal spirits’ is good for steadyߚstate growth, and consumer borrowing can help to sustain aggregate demand. Stable steady states are characterized by a kind of ‘euthanasia of the rentier’. Consumer credit conditions influence effective demand, the profit rate and economic growth. Looser consumer credit conditions have a steadyߚstate growth effect and can enhance system stability. In this restricted sense, looser consumer credit conditions are good for macroeconomic stability.     

主权债务危机早期预警系统研究——基于BP神经网络方法

文章运用BP神经网络方法,构建了主权债务危机早期预警系统。通过对1991-2006年54个发展中国家宏观经济及债务状况数据的实证研究发现,该系统能对未来三年内出现的主权债务危机事件起到较好的预警作用,预警总体效果达86.7%。同时,与二元Logistic模型进行预测对比,发现运用人工神经网络方法对主权债务危机进行预警比二元Logistic方法具有相对优势。