On Decreasing Marginal Impatience,Stability and Monetary Policy in a Sidrauskian Economy

This paper analyzes the long‐run dynamics with which decreasing marginal impatience (DMI) is consistent with a saddle‐path equilibrium in a Sidrauskian economy. With exogenous growth, this occurs with a strong substitutability between capital and money. Otherwise, diminishing returns to capital have to be stronger than in a nonmonetary setting if capital and money are complements. With endogenous growth, saddle‐path stability ensues when the rate of time preference—the rate at which “impatience” is increasing—exceeds the rate at which the real economy is growing along a balanced growth path. Two monetary implications also emerge. One, DMI can be consistent with both a negative and positive long‐run inflation‐growth nexus. Two, under capital‐money substitutability, the Friedman optimal rule might even fail to hold.     

股票市场开放条件下的货币政策效应分析

本文探讨了在股票市场开放条件下,股票市场的国际资本流动对货币政策的影响。在开放经济条件下,对在东道国投资的国际投资者来说,如果股票投资比债券投资更重要,那么货币政策比财政政策相对有效的观点难以成立。扩张性货币政策使国内利率下降,但利率下降会增加股票投资的预期收益,这会吸引国际资本流入,从而导致本币升值,因而扩张性货币政策对产出的净影响是不确定的。浮动汇率体制有利于减缓外部冲击。     

人民币汇率的决定因素及其走势分析

研究人民币汇率的决定因素及其走势对我国在未来的经济发展具有重要意义。人民币汇率的主要决定因素为国内外的物价和利率水平差异、经济增长速度的快慢、国际收支状况及央行货币政策等。在短期内,由于我国经济增长放缓、美国经济逐渐复苏、美联储退出量化宽松、央行引导挤出套利资金以及国际收支的变动等原因的影响,我国人民币汇率的走势仍是双向波动,2014年内可能不会再出现人民币单边升值。预计未来跨境资金流动和人民币汇率仍保持双向波动的局面,且后者的波动幅度将加大。     

信贷机制、货币乘数与货币政策有效性研究

本文在蒙代尔—弗莱明的分析框架下引入商业银行信贷机制,来考察固定汇率制下小型开放经济体货币政策的有效性问题,发现货币政策可以作为稳定经济的工具。文章指出,实行固定汇率制度的小型开放经济体,其货币政策具有一定的独立性,可以对实际产出产生一定的作用;不同的货币政策工具对实际产出发生作用的传导机制不同,从而导致效果不同,因此货币当局在对宏观经济进行调节时必须选择适当的货币政策工具。     

析我国外汇占款对冲策略

根据我国的经济运行情况,分析固定汇率、资本流动与货币政策自主的“三元困境”在我国的具体表现。指出在经常项目和资本项目持续顺差的情况下,货币政策与外汇储备增长的矛盾。说明为控制流通中的货币而被动进行的单向对冲操作的成本昂贵,并且是以牺牲货币政策自主为代价的,还易积蕴金融风险,酿致恶性后果。证实了外汇占款对冲策略的不可持久性,为此必须改革现行的固定汇率制度,并放松资本管制。     

房地产经济的虚拟化分析

在虚拟经济背景下 ,影响房地产经济增长的各种生产要素也出现了虚拟化的倾向 ,并通过资本符号化、劳动预期化和网络信息技术数字化的方式 ,提高了房地产经济的资本效率、劳动效率和技术效率 ,进而推动了房地产经济的增长。     

Factor substitution,long-run growth,and speed of convergence in the one-sector convex endogenous-growth model

We study the link between the elasticity of factor substitution, long-run growth and the speed of convergence in the one-sector convex growth model. Technology is such that the marginal product of capital is bounded away from zero leading to endogenous growth. In particular, we consider the CES, VES and Sobelow production functions. We show that for two economies differing uniquely in initial factor substitutability, the economy with the higher initial elasticity of substitution will feature a higher long-run growth rate and a higher speed of convergence, irrespective of the specification of the production function.     

Aufschwung bleibt moderat — Wirtschaftspolitik wenig wachstumsorientiert

The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6 per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent in 2017. The upturn will be driven by private consumption, which will benefit from continued employment growth, sizeable increases in wage and transfer income, and also purchasing power gains thanks to lower energy prices. Fiscal policy will also be expansively oriented, partly due to rising costs related to refugee immigration. Public budgets will still post significant surpluses in the forecasting period, however. Failing to use this room for manoeuvre to promote growth, as seen in recent years, is not a sustainable path. In view of the continuous slack in the euro area economy, the monetary policy stance is considered to be appropriate. Should it become obvious in the course of this year that production does not return to normal capacity and that the inflation rate does not move towards two per cent, further measures to stimulate growth might become necessary. The scope for further monetary policy measures has been widely exhausted, though. A further economic stabilization could only be achieved through a combination of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. This could severely damage the credibility of monetary policy, however.     

The effects of trade taxes in a two-sector model of capital accumulation

In this paper, the effects of increases in trade taxes on the steady-state values of consumption and the capital stock per worker are examined in an economy which faces variable terms of trade and where the price-taking consumer intertemporally maximizes utility. In addition, the optimal trade tax for such an economy is derived.     

Tourism development,environmental pollution and economic growth: A theoretical analysis

We develop a two-sector dynamic model of a less-developed economy with an imported traded good sector and with a non-traded tourism service sector serving international tourists. Revenue earned from tourism finances imports. The model takes care of the negative effect of tourism development on environmental pollution. Environmental quality and capital stock accumulates over time. We analyse comparative steady-state effects and show that tourism development raises the level of capital stock as well as national income but lowers the quality of environment in the new steady-state equilibrium leading to a relative expansion (contraction) of the capital (labour) intensive non-tourism (tourism) sector. Pollution abatement policy produces a completely opposite effect; and so tourism development policies are to be accompanied by pollution abatement policies in order to ensure green growth.     

Problems of developing and transition economies

ABSTRACT

The Solow growth model was extended to account for the graft by corrupt individuals from domestic savings, which could have been used for productive capital accumulation, the productive stock of capital to be augmented by foreign direct investment (FDI), and the expatriation by FDI international investors. The results indicate that higher levels of FDI inflows, savings rates, and more advanced technology embedded productive capital would result in higher steady-state per capita productive capital to labor ratio. The graft from domestic savings, expatriation of FDI, and growth rate of labor negatively affect steady-state per capita productive capital to labor ratio.     

Die Transmission über den Zinskanal: von der Geldpolitik zur Kreditnachfrage

Through more favourable funding costs for commercial banks, the central bank can send expansionary monetary stimuli into the real economy to boost the demand for credit. In this regard, one of the most important channels for the transmission of monetary policy is the interest rate channel. This contribution analyses the effectiveness of the interest rate channel in the eurozone. It comes to the conclusion that the transmission of the expansive monetary stimulus into the banking sector works well, but that the transmission of the stimulus to the real economy is partly inhibited. The main factors that dampen credit demand are higher real interest rates as well as low growth and higher indebtedness, especially in the eurozone’s peripheral countries.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy

This paper examines the implications of different monetary and fiscal policy rules in an economy characterized by Harrodian instability. We show that (1) a monetary rule along Taylor lines can be stabilizing for low debt ratios but becomes de‐stabilizing if the debt ratio exceeds a certain threshold, (2) a ‘Keynesian’ fiscal policy rule can stabilize the economy at full employment, (3) a fiscal ‘austerity’ rule that links fiscal parameters to deviations from a target debt ratio fails to adjust the ‘warranted’ to the ‘natural’ growth rate and destabilizes the warranted path and (4) instability may arise from a combination of fiscal and monetary policy rules which separately would stabilize the system.     

货币政策对资本市场的非线性效应——基于自私募股权投资经验证据的分析

私募股权投资是资本市场的重要组成部分,而资本市场波动对宏观经济周期有重要影响。通过构建非线性计量经济模型,本文从不同期限结构和类型的政策模式角度探索货币政策对私募股权投资的非线性影响。研究发现,短期数量型货币政策在经济高涨时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,而长期数量型货币政策在经济平稳时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,数量型货币政策对私募股权投资的影响在时间维度呈现递减趋势;短期价格型货币政策在经济萧条时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,而长期价格型货币政策在经济平稳时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,价格型货币政策对私募股权投资的影响在时间维度呈现递增趋势。因此,长期价格型货币政策是我国进入经济新常态时期后的主要选择。     

PURE JOINT PRODUCTION,INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EMPLOYMENT AND THE EXCHANGE RATE

This paper deals with an open economy with heterogeneous capital and linear processes of pure joint production from a long‐period perspective. It is shown that: (1) an effective exchange rate change has ambiguous effects on the distribution of income and the competitiveness of domestic output; (2) the matrix of super‐multipliers linking exports to gross output is not always uniquely defined; and (3) the volume of exports and the volume of total employment may be inversely related, even if prices and distribution do not change.     

日德本币升值下的政策得失及对我国的启示

在本币升值背景下,日本与德国采取了不同的应对政策。德国首先着眼于国内宏观经济的稳定,放开汇率的波动,从而更好地保持了国民经济的稳定与增长;而日本试图阻止和缓解日元升值压力,其结果却是日元持续急剧升值,并造成了日本高通货膨胀和泡沫经济。综观日本、德国汇率波动的历史可以得到以下启示：人民币汇率升值是必然趋势;坚持货币政策的独立性十分重要;在坚持货币政策的独立性的同时,实现缓慢渐进式汇率改革;区域货币合作有利于区域内强国减少投机资本冲击,减少汇率升值对贸易品部门的负面影响;加快经济发展战略的转型,促使内外经济均衡发展。     

The Internationalization of Capital in a Small and Vulnerable Economy

Summary

Since the early 1980s, Ecuador has increasingly adopted a pro-free trade posture and has removed most restrictions on its capital account. Foreign capital, however, has not penetrated key sectors of the economy as the privatization drive has stalled and financial markets have remained weak. The combination of open capital accounts and meager foreign capital inflows has not proven particularly beneficial to Ecuador. Specifically, some aspects of the internationalization of capital such as offshore banking have created significant limitations for the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy and have added to the vulnerability of the country in the face of economic crises. These negative externalities of cross-border short-term capital movements are not balanced by inflows of long-term foreign capital.     

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。     

Open Economy Dynamics in a Floating Exchange Rate Developing Country Context

ABSTRACT

This article develops a wavelet-based control model to simulate fiscal, monetary, and real exchange rate scenarios in an open economy developing country with an inflation-targeting regime. We use South African macro data to jointly simulate optimal fiscal and monetary policy under varying scenarios for real exchange rate stability with interest rate parity. As real exchange rate stability increases, the model simulates the effects on the trade balance under both a constant and depreciating real exchange rate. We find that short-term cycle stability problems are somewhat mitigated by allowing the real exchange rate to depreciate.     

“三元悖论”与中国汇率制度选择

＂三元悖论＂的基本原理是指在货币政策独立、资本自由流动和固定汇率这三个经济目标中最多只能同时实现两个,而该理论本身也存在理论假设过于绝对化,组合难以有效实现,政策组合难以执行的局限性。基于对中国资本流动现状和货币政策有效性分析和＂三元悖论＂的基本原理分析,得出我国的汇率制度选择终级目标是实现＂货币政策独立＋资本自由流动＋自由浮动汇率＂的政策组合。