The ECB’s New Monetary Policy Strategy

The ECB updated its monetary policy strategy for the first time in 18 years in July 2021. Therein, the ECB announced that it is willing to accept a transitory period of moderate inflation overshoot in its efforts to push inflation upwards after a long period of undershooting its target. This study explores whether such an overshoot can be economically justified employing a simple Phillips curve model. The results point to the conclusion that the average inflation rate over the business cycle consolidated about one percentage point below the ECB’s target rate. A temporary asymmetry of the ECB’s monetary strategy seems therefore justified to realign inflation and inflation expectations with the target rate.

     

基于当前中国经济的货币政策

当前中国经济运行中存在固定资产投资增长过快 ,建设规模过大 ;货币发行量和贷款规模增长过快 ;通货膨胀压力增大等问题。本文从货币政策角度出发 ,认为应该确定以物价稳定和经济发展为货币政策目标 ,将货币供应量作为我国当前货币政策的中介指标 ,以传统的三大货币政策为辅 ,以利率和窗口指导为主来控制我国的货币供应量 ,优化贷款结构 ,实现扩大内需政策的结构性调整 ,树立和落实科学的发展观。     

Central Banking After the Crisis: No Return to Past Certainties

Before the 2008 crisis, macroeconomic theory and central bank practice regarded low and stable inflation to be a policy objective that was sufficient to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability. There was little concern with the details of the financial system or balance sheet aggregates. This article makes the case that these details are important and that monetary and macroprudential policy must control both the quantity and allocation of credit. This entails a revision of conventional monetary theory as well as policy, particularly to explain the paradox of the precrisis situation of so much credit and so little inflation. The particular role of real estate investment is described as a source of financial instability that can only be addressed by nuanced monetary and macroprudential policy.     

Can a Higher Inflation Target Reduce Inflation Volatility?

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation volatility. Using monthly data from 1913 to 2013, the results show that U.S. inflation and its volatility have been positively correlated when inflation exceeds a certain value, but negatively correlated when inflation is below this threshold. The evidence also suggests that inflation volatility is minimized between annual inflation rates of 1 and 3.6%, which includes both the 2% inflation target of many central banks, and the 3.5% break point predicted by the New Keynesian model of Coibion et al. ( 2012 ), but not the 4% inflation target recommended by Ball ( 2013 ) and Krugman ( 2013 ).     

经济危机和信贷扩张背景下的通货膨胀风险测度研究

基于货币长期中性的假设,建立通货膨胀风险测度模型,并将全球经济危机和中国信贷扩张作为冲击因素引入模型,研究发现在经济危机造成的破坏不再恶化的情况下,中国将可能从2010年下半年开始出现明显的通货膨胀压力;如果经济危机造成的破坏超出预期,则从2010年开始,CPI指数将重新回到大于零的区间,但考虑到货币供应量冲击对通货膨胀的影响具有相当的滞后性,因此中国2009年信贷扩张的效应可能在2～3年后才会完全显现出来。     

The Determinants of Net Interest Margin in the Ghanaian Banking Industry

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of net interest margin and the role of the financial crisis in explaining net interest margin (NIM) in the banking industry in Ghana. Further, we assess the sensitivity of our results to the measure of credit risk. We observe a sharp drop in NIM and an increase in bad debt growth during the 2007–2009 financial crisis in Ghana’s banking sector. Depending on the definition of credit risk, we observe marginal differences in the magnitude and significance of the determinants of NIM. Generally, NIM is explained by bank-specific, industry and macroeconomic factors. We find risk aversion, operating cost, inflation rate and previous year’s GDP growth to be robust drivers of NIM.     

Global Upturn Shaping Germany’s Economy

The global economy is currently in a phase of sustained growth. Will higher oil prices have a dampening effect on the world economy? Has the risk of inflation increased so much that monetary policy needs to be tightened more than so far anticipated? Are there any signs that global economic imbalances are being corrected?      

The Brazilian Economy in 1994–1999: From the Real Plan to Inflation Targets

This paper investigates the three main events that shook the Brazilian economy in 1994‐‐1999, a period that represented a turning point in the country's economic history. These events were the implementation of the Real Plan in 1994, the devaluation crisis in 1999, and the subsequent adoption of inflation targets. The principal contributions of this period were the drastic reduction of high inflation rates – the biggest problem in Brazil since the 1970s – and the reorientation towards economic growth, which were also supported by a privatisation programme, the openness of the economy to foreign capital, a trade liberalisation process, and the ongoing fiscal adjustments. Nevertheless, the period also left its scars, such as high budget and current account deficits, accompanied by a policy of elevated interest rates and, until 1999, a highly appreciated exchange rate. The paper concludes with a cautiously optimistic evaluation of the country's economic future based on the accomplishments of the 1990s and the possibility of a long‐term commitment to low inflation targets.     

Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?

This article assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity), and efficiency. Three main findings are established: (a) there are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals; (b) the error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship; and (c) in the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed.     

Coercion in the selling of credit life insurance

Credit life insurance, which repays some or all of a borrower's outstanding debt in the event of death, has been a controversial subject for many years. Critics assert that, despite regulations that limit tied sales, pressure on loan officers to generate fee income through cross selling creates an incentive for coercion of borrowers. Allegedly, some sales techniques leave the consumer with the false impression that the purchase of credit insurance was necessary to obtain the loan. This article measures the frequency with which creditor efforts to sell credit insurance transform the sales message from persuasive to coercive. A methodology is developed for measuring the impact of coercive selling pressure applied to borrowers at the point of sale. Data used to measure the effect of coercive pressure are taken from an extensive survey of borrowers conducted during 1993. Not only are public policy concerns about coercion in the selling of credit insurance addressed, but more generally the article offers a methodology to quantify the influence of the customer's point-of-sale experience on the decision to purchase any financial service. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation

This paper provides an ordered probit approach that estimates the probability six months in the future of three distinct scenarios for prices: inflation, deflation, or price stability. The traditional way of forecasting inflation is to predict a single level and/or growth rate of the PCE deflator. However, this approach is not useful for identifying options or risks facing decision-makers, especially in financial markets. Also, point estimates of inflation convey a sense of overconfidence. Our approach is more practical for decision-makers who must hedge their portfolios, but it is also useful for policymakers, investors, and consumers who must attach a probability with each possible scenario of future price trends. Our results indicate that since June 2011 the probability of deflation has been persistently higher than of the other two scenarios. Thus, the recent years’ higher deflation probabilities may offer a justification for the persistence of the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative monetary policy during 2012–14.     

Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979

The good macroeconomic performance of the US economy since the early 1980s has sparked interest in determining how the Fed has conducted the monetary policy. One widely shared view is that actual policy has broadly been consistent empirically with Taylor-type policy rules in which the funds rate responds to actual or expected inflation and the level of the output gap. In particular, as shown in Mehra (2001), a policy rule in which the funds rate responds to expected inflation, the bond rate, and the level of the output gap predicts actual policy well. It is shown here that the growth version of this rule in which the funds rate responds to the growth rate of the output gap instead of its level predicts actual policy almost as well. Hence, uncertainty that exists in measuring the current level of the output gap may not have mattered much in the conduct of policy, in contrast to the view focused on level policy rules.     

Credit Scoring and Loan Default

A metric of credit score performance is developed to study the usage and performance of credit scoring in the loan origination process. We examine the performance of origination FICO scores as measures of ex ante borrower creditworthiness using loan‐level data on ex post performance of subprime mortgages. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The data suggest a trend of increased emphasis on higher credit scores accompanying a trend of increased riskiness in other origination attributes. Over time, this increased emphasis on credit scoring coincided with deterioration in FICO performance largely because of the fact that higher credit score originations of later cohorts were more likely to have riskier attributes. However, controlling for other attributes on originations and changes in economic conditions, we find that, as measures of borrower ranking, FICO performance on subprime loans over the years remains fairly stable.     

出口企业信用证结算对国际惯例的适用与把握

信用证在国际贸易结算中扮演着重要角色。在信用证结算方式下,出口企业必须以国际惯例UCP600作为业务准则,善于充分利用其相对UCP500实质变动中对受益人的利好条款,并在信用证业务操作中把握其具体规定,以确保安全、及时、顺利地收取货款。     

Consumer credit from the Islamic viewpoint

In this paper, the author describes — against the background of the general principles of trade in Islam, which are based on the value patterns deeply ingrained in the Islamic faith — the rules regulating consumer credit and debt financing in an Islamic economy. In the exposition of the Islamic viewpoint on these issues, guidelines adopted by Malaysian economists and financial institutions are used as a basis. The author explains which forms of trade and credit are regarded as usurious in nature and hence prohibited. Charging interest on loans is not permissible, but there are several forms of deferred contracts of exchange which can be used in order to enable consumers to make purchases on credit. The most common of these forms are described in some detail. They have in common that consumers have absolute ownership over the object of trade during the period in which they pay their instalments. An inability-to-pay clause, taking into account that a consumer may not always be in a position to fulfil the obligation to pay because of unavoidable or pressing circumstances, is always part of these credit forms. Some proposed solutions to the problems of alleviating the impact of inflation on credit transactions are also briefly described. In the final section, it is pointed out that even within the Islamic ambit, there can exist a multiplicity of approaches to issues such as consumer credit, depending on the various priorities set in a particular Islamic country. Furthermore, in a country such as Malaysia, although much conversion to an Islamic approach has taken place, Islamic and conventional systems exist side by side, and the future will show which of the systems is the more receptive to public needs.

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Zusammenfassung Verbraucherkredite aus islamischer Sicht. Vor dem Hintergrund der generellen Regeln für Handel und Gewerbe des Islam, die aus Wertvorstellungen erwachsen, die tief im islamischen Glauben verwurzelt sind, beschreibt der Autor die Richtlinien, nach denen Verbraucherkredite und Schuldenfinanzierung in einer islamischen Volkswirtschaft geregelt sind. Bei der Darstellung des islamischen Blickwinkels auf diese Themen werden Richtlinen herangezogen, die in Malaysia von ökonomen und Institutionen der Finanzwelt erarbeitet und angenommen wurden. Der Autor erklärt, welche Handels- und Kreditformen als Wucher betrachtet werden und deshalb verboten sind. Zinsforderungen auf Darlehen sind nicht zulässig, aber es gibt verschiedene Formen von Handelsverträgen in Abzahlungsform, die verwendet werden können, um Verbrauchern zu ermöglichen, Käufe auf Kredit zu machen. Die üblichsten dieser Formen werden ziemlich genau beschrieben. Ihnen ist gemeinsam, da\ die Verbraucher während der Zeit ihrer Ratenzahlungen volles Eigentum an der gekauften Ware haben. Eine Zahlungsunfähigkeits-Klausel, die berücksichtigt, da\ Konsumenten wegen äu\erer Umstände nicht immer in der Lage sein können, ihren Zahlungsverpflichtungen nachzukommen, ist immer Bestandteil dieser Kreditverträge. Einige Vorschläge zur Milderung von Inflationsproblemen bei kreditfinanzierten Käufen werden ebenfalls beschrieben. Im letzten Abschnitt wird gezeight, da\ auch innerhalb der islamischen Welt, abhängig von den jeweiligen Prioritäten eines bestimmten islamischen Landes, eine Vielfalt von Positionen zu Themen wie Verbraucherkredit existiert. Hinzu kommt, da\ in einem Land wie Malaysia trotz einer stärkeren Hinwendung zu islamischen Ansätzen, islamische und konventionelle Systeme nebeneinander existieren. Die Zukunft wird zeigen, welches dieser Systeme den Bedürfnissen stärker entgegenkommt.

     

Religion and the Clash of “Ideals” and “Realities” in Business: The Case of Islamic Bonds (Sukuk)

Fueled by an increasing demand for investments that comply with Shariah (Islamic law), sukuk (Islamic investment certificates or participation certificates) have developed as one of the main components of the Islamic finance industry. In general, sukuk can be structured as asset based or asset backed, yielding wholly different risk profiles in the event of default and liquidation. However, given that the sukuk market is dominated by asset‐based sukuk, this article examines the motivation for greater interest in this specific sukuk structure. It also analyzes the challenges facing the regulatory framework and tax implemented for Islamic securitization in various jurisdictions. Then, it further evaluates, from the perspective of credit rating agencies, the importance of purchase undertakings in the structure and some controversies on this very point. The main issue that emerges is the difficulty of resolving the clash between the ideals of Islam and the realities of the marketplace. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Identification incubators: reflexivity in consumer book clubs

ABSTRACT

We examine how consumers engage in reflexivity related to their ongoing process of identification within book clubs. The ongoing nature of identification processes, coupled with the conditions associated with liquid modernity, results in a cycle of self-reflexive doubt where consumers grapple with existential questions as they reflect on their lives. Through an examination of book clubs, we show that consumers engage in reflexive practices within the day-to-day setting of a book club. To do this, consumers engineer their clubs into identification incubators – controlled environments in which consumers engage in reflexivity related to their identification processes. We show that by turning book clubs into incubators, consumers are able to capitalize on two reflexive resources – books and other club members – to thoughtfully reflect on their lives. We note, however, that maintaining the incubator is often stressful for consumers and can lead to tensions between club members.     

Bond Rate,Loan Rate and Tobin's q in a Temporary Equilibrium Model of the Financial Sector

The paper sets up a portfolio model of the financial sector with markets for equity, government bonds, money and debt. The comparative statics of the temporary equilibrium are studied analytically and numerically. Subsequent simulations explore the reactions of financial markets in response to stylized oscillations of some of the exogenous variables. These include economic activity, income distribution, inflation, investors' sentiment, and banks' perceived bankruptcy risk of firms. Special emphasis is put on the resulting cyclical pattern of Tobin's q and the interest spread between loan rate and bond rate.