Impacts of price and productivity changes on banana‐growing households in Uganda

This article compares the effects of changing market prices and farm productivity on the welfare of banana‐growing households in the Ntungamo district of Uganda. A heterogeneous‐agent model is applied via a series of mathematical optimization problems, to simulate production and consumption responses of 70 farm households surveyed in 2006. Results show that a given increase in productivity has a greater impact on poverty alleviation than that same increase in market prices. Despite the effects of productivity gains being comparable across different types of household groups, price improvements primarily benefit the incomes of households who are involved in rural producer organizations, who are located closer to markets, and who sell at the market.     

Hedonic wine price functions with different prices

This study examines the impact that recommended retail prices, actual market prices and the release of a prominent wine guide have on Australian wine hedonic price estimates, for attributes such as sensory quality, winery reputation and grape region. In general, hedonic price estimates appear to be independent of prices employed. The main identified differences in estimates relate to the size of the producer and some regional impacts. For market prices only, increases in producer size are estimated to reduce prices. This implies the existence of supply chain quantity discounting price practices. The impact of an authoritative wine guide appears to have a negligible influence on prices in Australia. In the absence of market transaction prices, the common practice of employing recommended prices for hedonic wine price estimation is defendable.     

Spatial integration between Finnish and Dutch potato markets

This study estimated a conditional mean model for producer prices of fresh potatoes in Finland and for wholesale selling prices of fresh potatoes in the Netherlands. Unit roots were tested in the Finnish and Dutch price series. Then, an asymmetric error correction model with thresholds was estimated for potato prices between Finland and the Netherlands. Asymmetry was allowed both in short and long-run price transmission. The results suggest that the prices are cointegrated and the arbitrage system is functioning, but with a significant time lag between the Finnish and Dutch potato markets. The price response is also asymmetric in that the Finnish price moves towards a steady state equilibrium faster from above than from below the equilibrium.     

Agricultural Producer Price Expectations

Producer price expectations underlie much of agricultural supply analysis. While producer price expectations would ideally be discovered experimentally, this is too costly. Instead, producer price expectations are usually represented in agricultural supply analysis by easily obtained hypothesized expectation formulations. In most cases, the hypothesized expectation formulations are functions of past prices. However, other formulations are sometimes used, such as current cash and futures prices, or initial payments in the case of grains marketed by the Canadian Wheat Board. This paper compares actual producer price expectations with a variety of hypothesized expectation formulations for wheat and canola in Saskatchewan. A test developed by Granger is used to determine the proxy models that are significantly dominant. The model that dominates as a proxy in the case of wheat price expectations is the two-year declining-weight moving average. The two models that dominate as a proxy in the case of canola price expectations are the first-order autoregressive and, as well, the two-year declining-weight moving average. There is no significant difference between the two models. Somewhat surprising is the performance of formulations based on futures prices. These formulations perform very poorly in representing producers' price expectations, even though they are found to be among the most accurate predictors of actual commodity prices. An even more interesting observation is the performance of the futures price model in the canola market. Even though the November contract in January explains very little of the variation in the actual commodity prices for that year, its error in predicting canola prices is not significantly greater than that of the best performing, the four-year declining-weight moving average, based upon the root mean squared error criterion.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRICE TRANSMISSION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

The three-step estimator of the co-integrated system approach is used to examine the dynamic transmission of agricultural producer prices through the food marketing system in seven countries of the EU. The results suggest that even if producer and consumer prices drift apart in the short-run, for example when producer price policy changes, market forces return them to their long-run equilibrium. Tests do not reject the hypothesis of long-run ‘perfect’ price transmission for two, pigmeat-pigs and butter-milk, out of five pairs of prices, in six of the seven member countries of the EU considered here, the UK being the exception. The tests do, however, reject the hypothesis of short-run ‘perfect’ price transmission, even in its less restrictive form, across all pairs of prices in all countries.     

Price expectations of sheep and goats by producers and intermediaries in Quetta market,Pakistan

Analysis of producers' and intermediaries' livestock price expectations was used to describe the market in Quetta, the largest livestock market in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan, and to identify factors that determine price expectations of small ruminants. A total of 4800 expected prices for sheep and goats were collected from producers and market intermediaries at monthly intervals between January 1991 and December 1992. In addition to the expected price of the animal, liveweight, species, sex, breed, body condition (fatness), calendar day and month were recorded, and whether data were collected on a meat or meatless day. Monthly rainfall data were also collected. Models of goat and sheep price expectations were built to compare the similarity of the behaviour of producers and intermediaries. Results indicated that producers and intermediaries expected high prices from November to January and during religious holidays. They expected premiums and discounts related to animals' attributes. Liveweight and seasonality had the strongest effect on prices. Rainfall in the current and previous month was positively related to seller's expected prices suggesting that livestock are retained to take advantage of favourable grazing conditions. The models of price expectations showed that producers adjusted expected goat prices (P ≤ 0.10) for seasonality, liveweight, body condition, age, sex and breed, while they adjusted sheep prices for seasonality and liveweight only. High pay-offs could be expected if extension efforts focused on factors that determine sheep meat quality; however, the retail ceiling price of meat and the lack of grading are a disincentive to work in this direction. Seasonality of supply and demand is important in determining prices and this study provides baseline information for market scheduling; however, scheduling of sales of transhumant pastoralists may be difficult to achieve. Further investigation is justified to understand the gap in marketing knowledge between producers who sell in the villages and those who sell in Quetta.     

Decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps: an application to Russia

The article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps, defined as the difference between a commodity's domestic producer and border prices. We use OECD's procedure for decomposing changes in the market price support part of producer support estimates as the starting point for our decomposition method, and our method provides a basis for critiquing OECD's decomposition approach. The transmission of changes in border prices (world prices and the exchange rate) to domestic prices is a key element in the decomposition. The method is demonstrated using Russian agricultural price gaps. The results support the argument that for Russian agriculture during the transition period, the main cause of changes in price gaps has been incomplete transmission of changes in the exchange rate to domestic prices, and where the weak transmission results mainly not from policy intervention, but rather from deficient market conditions, in particular poor market infrastructure. The policy implication is that underdeveloped infrastructure has strongly limited the benefits to the Russian economy from agricultural trade liberalization.     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Optimal Storage by Crop Producers

When post–harvest marketing strategies are restricted by disallowing speculative purchases, sales out of storage becomes an irreversible decision and the dynamic marketing problem becomes analogous to the optimal exercise of a financial option. The optimal marketing strategy is to hold at low prices and to sell at high prices with a cutoff price function marking the boundary between low and high prices. A method for estimating the cut–off price function is developed and applied to Illinois soybean prices. The decision rule is demonstrated to result in substantial gains from storage.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORLD PRICE INSTABILITY AND THE PRICES FARMERS RECEIVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

World prices for agricultural commodities are traditionally unstable, but they were particularly turbulent during the late 1970s and early 1980s. This paper uses available post-War data on individual commodity prices to test whether world price instability is increasing, and to examine its impact on the prices producers receive in developing countries. It is found that the recent turbulence was more a statistical fluke than the beginning of any longer-term increase in market instability. Further, while the variability in world prices has been almost entirely transmitted to developing countries in the dollar value of their export unit values, it has not been fully transmitted to average producer prices. Real exchange rates, domestic marketing arrangements and government intervention have acted to buffer price movements for producers in many developing countries.     

Maize acreage response under differential prices in the Republic of Benin,West Africa

Price response of maize acreage in Benin was estimated with a particular emphasis on whether the prices were producer prices in rural markets or retail prices in urban markets. A second difference between prices was examined through a price adjustment model which takes into account the distortions caused by local units on maize price when one is concerned with the pricing system in the private marketing network relating rural and urban areas. Urban market price specification appeared to be the most relevant statistically in explaining acreage decisions in Mono province. Price elasticity of acreage was 0.445 in this area while its value, around 0.10, was not significant for Benin as a whole. The use of adjusted urban prices enabled an increase of 5.6% of the elasticity in Mono province. The urban vs. rural difference was apparent, but the coefficients of the price variable were not significant in equations with rural prices. The latter were not as reliable as those of the urban market of Dantokpa (in Cotonou city) collected by the Institute of Statistics (INSAE) and the GTZ project.     

Political Market Power Reflected in Milk Pricing Regulations

We investigate revealed political market power reflected in the pattern of price discrimination by end use that is the hallmark of U.S. milk marketing orders. We show that the pattern of prices that would maximize producer profits, if producers operated a cartel with monopoly power in a regional market, is far above actual government-set price differentials between milk used for fluid products and that used for manufactured products. The pattern of actual price differentials is consistent with political welfare weights for producers relative to consumers that are small compared to the weights that would yield maximum producer profits.     

Higher fuel and food prices: impacts and responses for Mozambique

Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms‐of‐trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short‐run net benefit ratio analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer‐term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis reveals difficult trade‐offs between short‐run mitigation and long‐run growth. Improved agricultural productivity has powerful positive impacts, but remains difficult to achieve and may not address the immediate impacts of higher prices.     

Threshold Cointegration in the Greek Milk Market

This article investigates the nonlinear adjustment between consumer and producer prices in the Greek milk sector using a threshold error correction autoregressive model. The results reject the null hypothesis of linear cointegration in favor of a 2-regime threshold cointegration model. A cointegrating relationship is expected only when equilibrium consumer price is decreased more than 24.12% or the equilibrium relative markup is squeezed more than 62.74%. In this case consumer prices have to increase faster than producer prices to restore the long-run equilibrium between consumer-producer milk prices.     

Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour

We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns.     

The Pricing of Experience Goods: The Example of en primeur Wine

The market for "primeur" wine in the Bordeaux region allows producers to sell wine that is still in barrels. As with all experience goods, producers send quality signals to uninformed buyers. Using original data on Bordeaux wines, we show that the pricing behavior of producers depends to a large extent on their reputation, and much less on short-term changes in quality (as measured by experts' grades). We also find that the primeur price has an informative role, since a 10% increase in primeur price leads to a 3% increase in prices on the market for bottled wine.     

Food Price Pass‐Through and the Role of Domestic Margin Services

The recent volatility in international agricultural markets has drawn attention to the impact of rising international agricultural prices and the induced price‐insulating measures on consumer food prices. Analyses based on simulation models on this topic typically ignore the role of domestic margin services. We extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to allow for variations in the share of domestic margin services in consumed food across countries. This approach enables us to differentiate consumer prices from producer prices. Following the extension, the results show that domestic margin services reduce the consumer food price volatility for all countries, especially in high‐income countries, where the share of domestic margin services in final food consumption is higher. The effect of price‐insulating border policies is also reduced in the extended model. We find that our extension of the GTAP model greatly improves simulations of the 2007 surge in international agricultural prices. We validate our extension of the GTAP model by showing that the econometrically estimated food price pass‐through is decreasing with income and thus, is smaller in high‐income countries.     

Why does on-farm storage fail to mitigate price volatility?

We analyze the role of farm stock management on price volatility under liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. In commodity markets, speculative behaviors by stockholders tend to reduce price volatility, but this is not the case in certain agricultural markets, where speculation by farmers regarding decisions to sell or store grain is subject to liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. Like stockholders, most farmers sell grain if they expect a price drop in the near future, but unlike stockholders, they are not necessarily able to purchase grain if they expect a price increase in the next period. Heterogeneous price expectations can also lead to suboptimal storage decisions, further increasing price volatility. For these reasons, the storage management behavior of farmers often fails to mitigate price drops in the way that speculation by stockholders does. We merge historical data on maize prices and household storage collected in Burkina Faso in order to build a dynamic panel over the 2005–2012 period. We show that carryover from one season to the next is associated with unexpected price drops during the preceding lean season and that carryover is associated with more frequent unexpected price drops following the subsequent post‐harvest season.     

The Effect of the Northeast Dairy Compact on Producers and Consumers, with Implications of Compact Contagion

We model and measure the effects of the Northeast Dairy Compact on prices, quantities, and producer and consumer welfare, underscoring the distribution of these effects across regions and among producers and buyers. Using 1999 as a base year, simulations show that the Compact raised the farm price of milk in the Northeast by $0.45/cwt, lowered the farm price of milk in the rest of the country by $0.02/cwt, and transferred income from producers outside the Compact region and buyers in the Compact region to producers in the Compact region. Non-Compact producer losses exceeded Compact producer gains. Similar results are found for a scenario of Compact contagion—extension of the Compact to include additional states. In both cases, the Compact changed the distribution of the costs and benefits of price discrimination as practiced by milk marketing orders. The regional distribution of the Compact's welfare effects raises again the question of the organization and stability of the federal milk marketing order system.     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.