基于多智能体模型的绿色技术创新扩散影响因素研究

绿色技术虽备受关注,然而在我国其创新及扩散面临着需求与扩散动力不足。本文尝试寻找影响绿色技术创新扩散程度的因素,通过构建多智能体模型来研究其扩散过程,并针对不同类型绿色技术在创新扩散过程中的影响因素进行模拟计算。根据结果得出了整个社会的创新风险对三类绿色技术扩散影响最大等系列结论,并据这些结论提出促进绿色技术创新扩散的可行建议。     

Diffusion of a durable good innovation: The case of high bypass turbojet engines

Jackson and Kaserman (1991) model diffusion of an innovation an investment decision where the time of adoption is motivated by cost-minimization. This paper tests this model, using the adoption by American major airlines of jet aircraft embodying high bypass turbojet engine technology.The results support the Jackson-Kaserman model. The effect of aircraft age has the appropriate and significant sign. Likewise, average stage length measuring relative variable cost performance of the old and new technology is appropriately signed.     

Understanding early diffusion of digital wireless phones

There is increasing empirical evidence from academic research and strong recognition among policymakers that wide diffusion and innovative uses of digital wireless phones are important sources of a country's economic growth and social development. Adopters do not necessarily adopt digital wireless phones at the same time though. Although the diffusion of innovation theory suggests five adopter categories according to their degree of innovativeness, this approach lacks theoretical justification and, more importantly, it makes a critical assumption of a normal distribution of adopters that needs empirical validation. This study investigates the basis for defining different adopter categories and factors that affect adoption decisions of digital wireless phones using the aggregate data on 46 developed and developing countries from 1992 to 2002. This paper utilizes a two-step analysis approach. The first step evaluates the distribution of adopters over time using various diffusion models. The second step uses iterative survival analysis to examine the patterns of influential factors on adoption behavior by evaluating the survival models using a 1% increment of cumulative penetration as the targeted events. The results of the best-fitting diffusion models indicate that digital wireless phone adoption patterns did not follow a normal distribution and did not map exactly into Rogers’ five adopter categories. The results from the iterative survival analysis suggest four adopter categories (innovators, early adopters, breakthrough adopters, and mainstream adopters) among the first 30% of adopters. Different factors are observed to influence various adopter categories’ adoption decisions. The results offer insights to support telecommunication operators to develop strategies to attract these adopters. It also supports policymakers’ efforts to design effective regulatory frameworks.     

我国太阳能光伏技术扩散预测研究

太阳能光伏的利用和商业化已经受到世界各国的重视,本文以太阳能光伏技术为研究对象,以Logistic模型为基础,估算我国2010年之前太阳能光伏市场最大经济可开发量,并预测2010~2030年间太阳能光伏技术扩散趋势。结果表明,太阳能光伏技术发展呈曲折上升趋势,2009年太阳能光伏发电最大经济可开发量达25379.13兆瓦,但实际仅利用1.2%。2020年我国太阳能光伏市场开发率也将达到12%,2030年我国太阳能光伏市场开发率将达到59%之多,这对于缓解我国电荒有重大意义。我国太阳能资源丰富且前景广阔,政府应加大重视太阳能资源在光伏领域的应用及投入,以提高太阳能资源的市场价值。     

技术进步对我国出口贸易结构调整影响的实证研究--基于 VAR 模型的回归估计

本文从技术引进、技术扩散和科技创新视角,就1990～2012年技术进步对我国出口贸易结构调整影响进行了协整分析、 VAR 模型回归估计、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解和因果关系检验。结果显示,技术扩散、技术创新带来的技术进步对于我国出口产品结构调整实现由初级产品向工业制成品方向升级具有积极促进作用。然而,技术进步并不是出口结构调整的原因,我国通过技术进步实现出口产品结构的调整路径还未实现。     

以知识创新为中介的社会资本对技术创新影响的模型分析

社会资本对技术创新的影响是学术界和实践界关注的热点问题之一,然而其路径和机理仍不明确。为此,试图通过一个模型分析了知识创新为中介的社会资本对技术创新的影响。首先,借鉴场论,提出了以知识创新为中介的社会资本影响技术创新的概念模型;其次,提出了修正的创新价值链模型和扩展的知识创新模型,并分析社会资本对知识创新和技术创新的直接影响,以及社会资本通过知识创新对技术创新的间接影响;最后,探究了社会资本通过知识创新影响技术创新的路径和机理,以期为企业技术创新更好地展开提供一些借鉴。     

Networks for the commercialization of innovations: A review of how divergent network actors contribute

Successful commercialization is of great importance to innovative firms, and the recent literature has increasingly acknowledged that networks make a contribution not only to research and development but also to commercialization. However, research on networks facilitating the commercialization of innovations is scattered across divergent disciplines. A single company is rarely capable of generating successful diffusion in the commercialization of an innovation; success often requires cooperation between individual actors and organizations, and support from stakeholders. Consequently, the network aspect of commercialization is crucial. The aim of this study is thus to integrate the knowledge on how current research and business has employed the network approach in commercialization, and how contributors external to the innovator firm can facilitate the commercialization of innovations. On the basis of an extensive metatheoretical literature review and a qualitative and quantitative content analysis on articles linking networks explicitly to commercialization, this study produces a conceptual synthesis on network actors' contribution potential to commercialization. The analysis identified divergent network approaches to commercialization and gathered extant knowledge on “commercialization networks” from the multidisciplinary literature of innovation management, marketing, management, technology, entrepreneurship, and other relevant disciplines. Networks for commercialization have been linked to divergent network approaches, such as industrial networks, social networks, strategic networks, and entrepreneurship networks. According to the findings, customers and users, distributors, complementaries, suppliers, investors, associations, public organizations, and policy makers and regulators can support commercialization by performing practical commercialization tasks, facilitating innovation adoption/diffusion and creating markets. We also identified four modes of contribution. In terms of methods, qualitative research dominates current examinations on the topic while longitudinal research and investigations from multiple network actors' perspectives are almost absent. The results also indicate a need to develop coherent conceptualizations and accumulate knowledge that would strengthen the theoretical basis of the research. A pivotal contribution of this article is that it is the first to generate an integrative framework and a research agenda on networks for commercialization — a theme that is emergent, multifaceted, and crucial to innovative companies.     

中国工业的技术创新

随着工业化的不断深化,技术创新的关键性作用日益突出。由于中国是一个发展中国家,产业转移是推动我国产业发展的强大动力。所以迄今为止,我国大多数产业的技术来源主要都是西方国家的产业技术扩散。但是,中国不能长期处于低端产业、低附加值的国际分工地位。要形成持续的竞争力和保持持续增长的空间,就必须在技术创新上有新的作为,即把产业发展的基点放在技术创新,特别是发展具有自主知识产权以至拥有核心技术的基础之上。丰富的劳动力资源是我国产业发展的一大优势,但对技术进步而言则是一个影响比较复杂的因素。中国产业技术的选择不能不反映劳动力丰富这一重要的资源禀赋条件,又不能使巨大的劳动力就业压力成为抑制中国产业技术进步的消极因素,影响中国产业顺应世界产业技术发展的基本线路,实现向高层次、高技术价值链的推进和升级。这是中国产业技术创新过程中的一个具有重大战略意义的问题。在传统计划经济体制下,推动我国产业技术进步的主体是政府。改革开放以来,企业在技术创新和技术进步过程中的作用逐步增强。这不仅表现为自20世纪90年代中期以来,我国的R&D支出持续增长,而且表现为企业逐步成为技术创新的主体。中国工业以至中国经济未来的发展前途将越来越依赖于技术创新,以技术创新推动工业     

论面向建筑产品的技术扩散

从建筑产品生产全过程的视角,提出了面向建筑产品的技术创新和技术扩散,探讨了面向建筑产品的技术扩散的三种形式。在借鉴国外学对参与技术扩散的角色研究的基础上,分析了影响面向建筑产品技术扩散的主要因素。     

基于 DEMATEL 方法的 CCS 技术扩散影响因素研究

发展碳捕捉与碳储存技术（CCS）是应对气候变化的最重要举措之一,但是在技术扩散的过程中却面临诸多困境。基于此,本文由政府、电厂、社会公众3个维度构建 CCS 技术扩散的影响体系,采用 DEMATEL 方法研究 CCS 技术扩散的制约因素,研究表明：政府的原因度和影响度较大,但中心度却次于电厂;社会公众的影响度和被影响度均相对较低。进而指出,政府是促进 CCS 技术扩散的中心环节,而社会公众在 CCS 技术扩散中的影响地位较弱。     

创新扩散、创新群集机理分析及应用

创新扩散是指创新在某一部门内的扩散，创新群集则是指一定时期内多产业部门同时出现的创新的集合。创新扩散通过创新自身和采用者环境的相互作用可以促使技术不断趋于成熟，使整个经济系统总量产生净增加；多部门中的创新群集以部门内部的创新扩散为基础，使产业优化升级产生质的飞跃。因此，推进创新是产业结构优化升级的灵魂。产业结构优化升级必须具备创新扩散和群集能力。     

高校科技创新、技术溢出与区域技术进步——基于2002~2014 年数据的实证研究

本文运用Eviews7.2 软件,采用面板数据模型实证研究了高校科技创新对我国区域技术进步的影响,得到了面板数据回归结果。结果表明,高校R&D 人员投入和专利技术产出对中部和西部地区的技术进步起着显著的促进作用,R&D 经费投入对中部、西部及东北地区的技术进步起着阻碍作用,同时科技论文产出对区域技术进步的影响不显著。这表明高校应当改革传统的以论文数量、科研经费为导向的高校科研考核制度,改进和完善科研评价体系,加强人才队伍建设,整合人才资源,形成优秀的科研团队,同时要加强产学研合作,建立企业与高校之间的信息平台,从而实现信息交流和资源共享,促进高校的科技成果向企业转化。     

环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级

本文利用我国30个省市1998～2013年的数据构建面板门槛模型,对环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明：环境规制对产业结构升级的影响存在显著的环境规制程度和技术创新水平的双门槛效应,进一步分析发现产业结构升级是以技术创新为前提的,若无法有效的激励企业进行技术创新,而单纯依靠强化环境规制来实现产业结构升级是不可持续的。