Currency returns, market regimes and behavioral biases

Covered interest rate parity assumes that there is no risk premium on the hedged returns on currencies. However, empirical evidence indicates that risk premiums are not identically zero, and this is referred to as the forward premium puzzle. We show that there exist market regimes, within which behavioral biases affect decisions, and a type of parity holds within regimes. The foreign exchange market switches between regimes where there is a premium. This paper presents various tests for the hypotheses of currency regimes and regime dependent risk premiums. Based on the existence of regimes, a diversified currency portfolio is created with a mean-variance criterion. Using the Federal Exchange Rate Index as a proxy for the currency benchmark and the U.S. T-Bill as the risk free asset, the similarity between the benchmarks and the implied equilibrium hedged and unhedged portfolios provides evidence for regimes and decision bias. Within each regime interest rate parity is appropriate for modeling currency returns.     

Downsizing decisions: The joint influence of equity incentives and behavioral biases

Although new investment can be viewed as a decision to pursue projects from a wide number of growth opportunities with easily discernible (and presumably preferable) risk profiles, downsizing (e.g., through layoffs, plant closings, asset divestitures, etc.) is a dichotomous choice to either abandon or continue an existing project where the relative risk between these options is not clear. Our evidence suggests that vega in the pre-downsizing period is associated with risky investment that necessitates future downsizing. We further find that contemporaneous vega is associated with a greater likelihood of downsizing. On the other hand, our evidence suggests that delta is a significant impediment to downsizing. We examine the influence of behavioral factors in the decision-making process and find downsizing decisions are discouraged by managerial overconfidence but encouraged by managers’ aversion to ambiguity. Finally, we investigate whether equity incentives and behavioral factors lead to better downsizing decisions. We find that downsizing firms with high ambiguity perform better after downsizing relative to their matched pair with lower ambiguity.     

Cognitive heuristics and biases in behavioral auditing: Review, comments and observations

The purposes of this paper are: (1) to provide background on the heuristics and biases approach to decision-making; (2) to describe some of the issues being debated in psychology concerning this approach; (3) to review relevant studies from the behavior auditing research literature; (4) to provide comments on trends in the auditing literature; (5) to offer comments about the advantages and disadvantages of this approach; and (6) to make some observations about future prospects for this research tradition.     

On short-term institutional trading skill,behavioral biases,and liquidity need

Are portfolio managers skilled or do they trade too much? Using a marked-to-market based “fair-value” method for measuring fund manager skill, we find that institutional managers can potentially earn +42 (+33) basis points benchmark-adjusted return before transaction costs after a holding period of four weeks on their buy (sell) trades. After transaction costs, the benchmark-adjusted return for the buy (sell) trades is +1 (-8) basis points. Pension fund managers outperform money managers. We are unable to detect evidence for overconfidence among pension fund managers over this short-horizon. In addition, we are unable to find evidence of disposition effect among mutual fund managers. Institutions tend to engage in short-term trades with holding period of four weeks (or less) despite only breaking-even or making economically insignificant (modest) benchmark-adjusted losses after round-trip transaction costs for liquidity, risk-management, or tax-minimization reasons. Among these, evidence for liquidity trading motive is the strongest.     

Market competitiveness and Big 5 pricing: Evidence from China's binary market

Big 5 auditors enjoy a worldwide audit fee premium that is believed to be attributable primarily to their reputation for providing high-quality services to clients. This study finds that the fee premium is also attributable to a lack of competition in the market. Taking advantage of the binary structure of the audit market in China, we compare the pricing practices of the Big 5 in the competitive statutory market and the less competitive supplementary market. Although the Big 5 have a reputation for high-quality audits in both markets, the degree of competition in the two markets is very different. Using audit fee data from the period 2000 to 2003, we find that the Big 5 earn a significant fee premium in the less competitive supplementary market, but not in the competitive statutory market. Although our results do not completely rule out reputation as an explanation, they are consistent with the notion that the audit fee premium that is earned by the Big 5 is more likely to be attributable to their dominant market position than to their reputation in the emerging Chinese markets, in which the usual audit-quality benefits for investors and managers are either absent or minimal.     

Market trading structures and asset pricing: evidence from the Treasury-bill markets

Earlier studies report significant price disparities betweenfutures and forward or spot markets. Examining the Treasury-billmarkets, this article demonstrates that differences in markettrading structures explain these disparities. Treasury-billfutures rates contain significantly lower liquidity and defaultpremia than do synthetic forward rates. This reflects the functioningof a futures' clearing association and differences between anopen-outcry auction futures market and an over-the-counter dealerspot market. The same factors that make futures contracts nonredundantsecurities also explain the existence, in equilibrium, of pricedisparities.     

BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing

This systematic literature review summarizes the extant research in the Behavioral Finance (BeFi) and digital asset spaces to understand better the interactions of behavioral effects on the pricing of assets constructed, enabled, and exchanged in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) markets. We find that asset pricing in these rapidly evolving markets is better explained through BeFi than through traditional finance (TradFi) theory. Investor attention, sentiment, heuristics and biases, and network effects interact to form a highly volatile and dynamic market. We offer a deterministic research framework with propositions for future research. We further provide investors with a theoretically and empirically supported structure to better inform their decisions through an understanding of BeFi applications to DeFi.     

Evaluation of the biases in execution cost estimation using trade and quote data

We use order data to assess the accuracy of execution cost estimation with trade and quote data. For our sample, estimates of the effective spread overstate actual execution costs by up to 17%. The biases result from errors in the inference of the trade direction and errors in the assignment of the benchmark quote. We find the accuracy of two popular trade direction algorithms improve marginally when trades are not lagged 5 seconds. Evaluation of the biases in execution cost measurement reveal the Ellis et al. (Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2000) 529) trade direction algorithm, combined with assigning benchmark quotes contemporaneous with trades, provides the least amount of bias. In general, biases are lower for relative effective spread estimates than effective spread estimates.     

Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps

This paper contributes to the general understanding of how sovereign CDS prices are formed by studying the information content of pricing errors generated by a non-arbitrage model. We implement a price-discrepancy measure in the spirit of the noise measure introduced by Hu et al. (2013) in the Treasury Bond market, and analyze its main determinants in panel data analysis. The main results show that sovereign CDS pricing errors are systematically related to higher bid-ask spreads. The evidence in this paper also suggests that exits of capital arbitrage during distressed periods, as measured by changes in net offsetting, can be associated to larger pricing errors in sovereign CDS from advanced economies, thereby supporting the main claims of the limit-to-arbitrage theories. These findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry and different estimation techniques.     

Market pricing of executive stock options and implied risk preferences

When managers get to trade in options received as compensation, their trading prices reveal several aspects of subjective option pricing and risk preferences. Two subjective pricing models are fitted to show that executive stock option prices incorporate a subjective discount. It depends positively on implied volatility and negatively on option moneyness. Further, risk preferences are estimated using the semiparametric model of Aït-Sahalia and Lo (2000). The results suggest that relative risk aversion is just above 1 for a certain stock price range. This level of risk aversion is low but reasonable, and it may be explained by the typical manager being wealthy and having low marginal utility. Related to risk aversion, it is found that marginal rate of substitution increases considerably in states with low stock prices.     

Market proxies as factors in linear asset pricing models: Still living with the roll critique

A new model misspecification measure for linear asset pricing models is proposed for the case where misspecification maps to latency of one of the pricing factors; in this case, the market return. This measure is suited both for testing models that include the market return as a pricing factor in a traditional sense (i.e., whether the chosen model does or does not price a collection of risky assets) and ranking those models (i.e., determining which model performs best). The proposed measure is used in pricing portfolios reflecting the size, value, and momentum premia. The conditional CAPM of Jagannathan and Wang (1996) is found to best the performance of both the simple CAPM and the ICAPM of Petkova (2006). Moreover, it is discovered that winner stocks in a momentum portfolio may have higher market betas than loser stocks.     

Covid-19 and heuristic biases: evidence from India

Stock markets worldwide have witnessed high volatility during the year 2020 owing to the eruption of Covid-19. Due to the world’s unprecedented economic challenges, this study could potentially guide financial advisors and individual investors in dealing with pandemics. An association between investors’ perception toward the intensity of Covid-19 and heuristic biases is analyzed using the responses of 290 stock investors of National Capital Region (NCR), India. The data are validated through Cronbach’s alpha, and the model fit is analyzed using EFA. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is employed to investigate the relationship between Covid-19 and heuristic biases. Covid-19 does not have any influence on the overconfidence of investors. A significant positive relationship is found between Covid-19 and the remaining three heuristics, i.e., availability, anchoring, and representativeness. The present study analyzes the association between Covid-19 and specific investors’ bias only and should not be interpreted for causality. The study has the potential to guide investors in understanding the errors they are making while investing during the pandemic and the ways to deal with them. The study could provide insights to the financial advisors in understanding their customers. The implications of the study may include inputs of the errors committed by them during the pandemic. Despite the fact that an enormous amount of literature exists in the field of investors’ sentiment, a scarcity of literature is available that measures the relationship between heuristic biases and the perceived impact of the pandemic. The current study attempts to fill this gap in the literature.

     

Cross-holdings: estimation issues, biases, and distortions

Cross-bolding occurs when listed corporations own securitiesissued by other corporations. We analyze the effect of cross-holdingson market capitalization and return measures as well as implicationsfor econometric testing of asset pricing theories. We show thatcross-holdings generally distort standard market return andrisk measures. The magnitudes of such distortions are calculatedfor simulated economies by using a variety of crossholding patterns.In addition, cross-holdings are shown to induce non-stationarityin the covariance matrix of security returns. We examine theeffect of this nonstationarity for estimating efficient frontiersand factor structures. We also discuss the implications forrisk-return estimates in equilibrium asset pricing models.     

Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: Arbitrage and pricing errors in contingent claims

Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) have developed two measures of pricing errors for asset-pricing models: the maximum pricing error in all static portfolios of the test assets and the maximum pricing error in all contingent claims of the assets. In this paper, we develop simulation-based Bayesian inference for these measures. While the literature reports that the time-varying extensions substantially reduce pricing errors of classic models on the standard test assets, our analysis shows that the reduction is much smaller based on the second measure. Those time-varying models have large pricing errors on the contingent claims of the test assets because their stochastic discount factors are often negative and admit arbitrage opportunities.     

Rockets and feathers: Understanding asymmetric pricing

Prices rise like rockets but fall like feathers. This stylized fact of many markets is confirmed by many empirical studies. In this article, I develop a model with competitive firms and rational partially informed consumers where the asymmetric response to costs by firms emerges naturally. In contrast to public opinion and past work, collusion is not necessary to explain such a result.     

Productivity-based asset pricing: Theory and evidence

In a general real business cycle model, we derive a pricing kernel that involves only production function arguments. The productivity shock is the single factor and the capital stock relative to a productivity measure is the conditioning variable. The model compares favorably with the complementary consumption-based and market-based approaches and with the Fama-French three-factor model. A size premium arises from differences in unconditional sensitivities—small firms are more sensitive to productivity shocks—and a value premium from differences in conditional sensitivities to productivity shocks—growth firms are more sensitive to productivity shocks when the productivity risk premium is low.     

An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory

It is not uncommon in the arrangement of a loan to include as part of the financial package a guarantee of the loan by a third party. Examples are guarantees by a parent company of loans made to its subsidiaries or government guarantees of loans made to private corporations. Also included would be guarantees of bank deposits by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. As with other forms of insurance, the issuing of a guarantee imposes a liability or cost on the guarantor. In this paper, a formula is derived to evaluate this cost. The method used is to demonstrate an isomorphic correspondence between loan guarantees and common stock put options, and then to use the well developed theory of option pricing to derive the formula.     

人民币CDS产品的初步设计、定价及相关思考

该文立足人民币市场,以信用类债券作为参考债务设计单一名字债券信用违约互换,并以darrow-Turnbull模型为基础,结合中国信用类债券市场现实情况提出具体假设,采用国债、央票、掉期等多种曲线分别作为无风险收益率曲线,测算AAA至A-各信用评级债券的COS价格,在测算分析基础上提出基础债务、监管、法律、信用等关键问题的思考。     

The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook

It has been a while since the literature on the pricing kernel puzzle was summarized in Jackwerth (Option-implied risk-neutral distributions and risk-aversion, The Research Foundation of AIMR, Charlotteville, 2004). That older survey also covered the topic of risk-neutral distributions, which was itself already surveyed in Jackwerth (J Deriv 2:66–82, 1999). Much has happened in those years and estimation of risk-neutral distributions has moved from new and exciting in the last half of the 1990s to becoming a well-understood technology. Thus, the present survey will focus on the pricing kernel puzzle, which was first discussed around 2000. We document the pricing kernel puzzle in several markets and present the latest evidence concerning its (non-)existence. Econometric studies are detailed which test for the pricing kernel puzzle. The present work adds much breadth in terms of economic explanations of the puzzle. New challenges for the field are described in the process.