Loss persistence and returns in the UK

In this study, we examine whether estimated loss reversal probabilities are fully reflected in UK stock market prices. Overall, we provide evidence of varying degrees and types of loss firm mispricing with respect to estimated loss reversal probabilities. In particular, a significant and positive relationship between loss reversal probability and annual returns is found only for firms with higher trading costs. When looking at monthly returns, however, especially for the financial statement release month subsequent to the loss year, a significant and positive relationship is found for all firms. Thus, the evidence is consistent with UK market participants not fully incorporating relevant information into the pricing of loss firms and, as a consequence, being surprised by the content of the earnings for many or all UK loss firms.     

CONTESTABLE MARKETS, TRADE, AND DEVELOPMENT

The design of policies to improve economic efficiency usingthe private sector as principal agent requires a clear understandingof the role of market structure. Contestability analysis, notten years old, provides a tool for the purpose. The conceptcan guide the government that wants to have it both ways: toprotect the public and smaller firms from the threat of monopolisticbehavior by large firms, at the same time allowing the largerfirms enough freedom to meet the requirements of efficiencyand to exercise entrepreneur ship. Perfect contestability provides a standard for ideal marketbehavior. A perfectly contestable market is one in which entryand exit are perfectly costless; in such a market, the mere(perpetual) threat of entry can enforce good conduct by incumbents.So long as sunk costs are zero, a potential entrant can undercutany excessive prices (or unnecessary costs) of incumbent firmsyet earn an attractive rate of return. Thus perfect contestabilityprecludes excessive profits and prices as well as waste andinefficiency, and it prevents predatory pricing. What contestability analysis means for policy in developingcountries is that an economy that wishes to take advantage ofavailable economies of scale can use the norms of behavior providedby the theory as a guide for regulation of its larger firms,instead of resorting to nationalization or to stifling restrictionsas the means to protect its infant industries and its consumers.Under this standard, the bounds on the firms' behavior set bythe regulations replicate those that would be enforced by marketpressures in an ideal state of perfect contestability. The articlegives a Nigerian example in which regulatory changes applyingthe theory promise to improve the performance of the electricutility market. Such methods can do more to promote the publicinterest than privatization, which often results in replacementof a state monopoly by a private monopoly.      

To Invest or not to Invest: A real options approach to FDIs and tax competition

Foreign investment decisions of firms are often characterized by investment irreversibility, uncertainty, and the ability to choose the optimal timing of foreign investments. We embed these characteristics into a real option theory framework to analyze international competition among countries to attract mobile investments when firms, after the investment is sunk, can shift profit to low tax countries by transfer pricing. We find that an increase in the uncertainty of profit income reduces the equilibrium tax rates, whilst lower investment costs or larger profits, counteracts the negative fiscal externality of tax competition leading to higher equilibrium tax rates. JEL Code H25     

A retail benchmarking approach to efficient two‐way access pricing: no termination‐based price discrimination†

We study access pricing rules that determine the access prices between two networks as a linear function of marginal costs and (average) retail prices set by both networks. When firms compete in linear prices, there is a unique linear rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium, independently of underlying demand conditions. When firms compete in two‐part tariffs, there exists a class of rules under which firms choose the variable price equal to the marginal cost. Therefore, the regulator can choose among these rules to pursue additional objectives such as increasing consumer surplus or promoting socially optimal investment.     

Optimal Disbursement of a Sunk Resource and Decentralised Cost Allocation

We consider whether the allocation of the sunk cost of a central resource to operating divisions can be consistent with economically optimal resource consumption decisions. When it is recognised that the central resource is scarce, one may, in principle, defend the allocation of sunk cost, if it measures the opportunity cost of usage. However, typically it has been proposed that such allocations are, at best, a proxy for opportunity cost. Applying classical control theory techniques in a wide range of operating environments, we are able to identify cost allocations that exactly equal opportunity cost. Hence, for our model environment, we provide a rationale for sunk cost allocation in terms of guiding optimal decisions, in contrast to the traditional defence in terms of providing a proxy for opportunity cost. We demonstrate clearly how cost allocations are related to opportunity costs, and identify the circumstances under which the allocation of full costs or alternatively a fixed proportion (related to acquisition conditions) of costs, results in the implementation of economically optimal resource consumption decisions.     

On the precautionary demand for assets

Precautionary demand models are developed for n assets under assumptions of both fixed and variable transactions costs. Applications of the models are made to all short-run cash needs portfolios as well as to the traditional banking case. Implications of the models are shown for interest rate structure and central bank reserve and secondary reserve controls. Emphasis is put on unsolved problems with the models such as integration with capital asset pricing models and problems with intraperiod timing with the hope of spurring additional research in this rather neglected area.     

Optimal Transfer Pricing Method and Fixed Cost Allocation

Prior empirical research on transfer pricing only reported what firms do but seldom explained why. This study moves the research forward by introducing hypothesis testing.
Atkinson (1987) shows that pricing transfers at variable cost when capacity is in excess. as prescribed by economic theory. would induce the buying unit to overstate expected demand at the capacity planning stage and cause a waste of resources. To test whether the strategic issue affects transfer pricing decisions, the study compares pricing methods for long- term transfer situations. which were provided for at the capacity planning stage, and ad hoc transfers.
As well. while the two-step method of charging full cost -charging variable cost for each unit transferred and separately charging a flat fee each period for capacity on reserve -has many good control qualities, it remained just an academic curiosity: there was no evidence of its wide use among firms. This study finds that the two-step method is as widely in use as the one-step method -charging variable cost plus unit fixed costs for each unit transferred.     

Deep hedging

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show in Section 4 that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to ε-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by an experiment on the S&P500 index and by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard ‘complete-market’ solution.     

‘Hot’ Debt Markets and Capital Structure

This paper examines the motives of debt issuance during hot‐debt market periods and its impact on capital structure over the period 1970–2006. We find that perceived capital market conditions as favourable, an indication of market timing, and adverse selection costs of equity (i.e., information asymmetry) are important frictions that lead certain firms to issue more debt in hot‐ than cold‐debt market periods. Using alternative hot‐debt market issuance measures and controlling for other effects, such as structural shifts in the debt market, industry, book‐to‐market, price‐to‐earnings, size, tax rates, debt market conditions and adjustment costs based on debt credit ratings, we find that firms with high adverse selection costs issue substantially more (less) debt when market conditions are perceived as hot (cold). Moreover, the results indicate that there is a persistent hot‐debt market effect on the capital structure of debt issuers; hot‐debt market issuing firms do not actively rebalance their leverage to stay within an optimal capital structure range.     

On the role of sunk costs and asset specificity in outsourcing decisions: a research note

The accounting literature has argued that firms overengage in outsourcing because they tend to ignore the transaction costs involved in buying services from external suppliers. A field experiment with managers of health care organizations shows that decision makers are actually quite sensitive to the asset specificity associated with the “buy” option in an outsourcing decision. However, they also appear inappropriately sensitive to the sunk costs inherent in most real-life outsourcing decisions, and may actually underengage in outsourcing. Prior commitment to internal procurement systematically reduced the willingness to outsource, relative to a pure “make or buy” scenario.     

Employee‐friendly practices,product market competition and firm value

In this paper, we examine whether employee‐friendly practices are associated with product market competition, and whether firm value is related to employee‐friendly practices and product market competition. Using a large sample of US firms, we find positive and significant associations between employee friendliness and product market competition, and between firm value and employee friendliness when product market competition is high, consistent with the value creation theory. Both positive relations hold when we account for corporate governance. In addition, using the list of Fortune's ‘100 Best Companies to Work For’ as an alternative measure of employee‐friendly policies, we find firms in more competitive industries are more likely to treat their workers favourably. Furthermore, we find that the market reaction is more positive when firms in more competitive industries are selected for the Fortune list.     

Does Corporate Governance Predict Future Performance? Evidence from Hong Kong

This study uses time‐series data to examine the relation between changes in the quality of corporate governance practices and subsequent market valuation among large listed companies in Hong Kong. The results indicate that firms that exhibit improvements in the quality of corporate governance display a subsequent increase in market valuation, whereas firms that exhibit deterioration in the quality of corporate governance practices tend to encounter a decline in market valuation. Additionally, the impact is greater for firms that are included in the MSCI index or with a China affiliation. The results provide evidence in support of the notion that good corporate governance can predict future market valuation.     

Tax Holidays and the International Capital Market

The paper shows how a tax holiday may signal to a skepticalcapital market that the future level of taxation will be moderate.After the signal has informed investors that the host countrygovernment is a low-spender, the tax profile flattens out, correspondingto a tax reform stage. Contrary to the recent literature on taxholidays, this model assumes that: the capital market is perfectlycompetitive; sunk costs are captured by a convex cost function,instead of fixed costs; taxation is distortionary, not lump-sum;and the government maximizes a welfare function rather than taxrevenue.     

汇率价格传递效应理论的发展

传统的汇率价格传递效应理论是建立在一价定律基础上的,认为汇率变动会对进出口价格产生完全的传递效应。但是,大量的实证研究表明,汇率变动引致的进出口价格相应的变动往往是不完全的。关于汇率变动对进出口价格的不完全传递效应,多数学者从微观经济学的视角展开研究,如不完全竞争、价格歧视、沉淀成本、厂商定价策略等;近年来也有一些学者试图从宏观经济学的视角进行解释,如一国通货膨胀环境、货币政策稳定性等。     

The pricing and performance of IPOs in China’s poor counties

In the context of China’s drive to alleviate poverty, we focus on the initial public offering (IPO) firms located in China’s poor counties and investigate their IPO pricing and post-IPO performance. Contrary to the findings reported for the U.S., we find that the problem of information asymmetry between Chinese firms located in rural areas and their investors is so severe that these IPO firms are associated with significantly higher underpricing. This effect is more pronounced for firms located in rural areas with poor traffic systems. We do not find significant market performance differences between rural and urban firms after their IPOs, but the operating performance of rural firms improves in the short term. Our additional analyses indicate that rural IPO firms have significantly lower investor attention and higher agency costs than urban firms. Overall, we enrich the literature on IPO pricing and the economic effects of geographic location.     

Transaction costs and competition among audit firms in local markets

We develop a measure to capture an audit firm's competitive position in a local audit market based on the transaction costs of changing audit firms included in DeAngelo's (1981) multi-period audit pricing model. Our competition measure reflects the size difference between the largest audit firm in a market specified by client industry at the city level and the other audit firms operating in that market. We find that audit fees of a client decrease as this size difference increases. This result suggests that smaller audit firms charge lower audit fees because of their competitive disadvantage to the local largest firm.     

Cost Structure and Payout Policy

I investigate the effects of firms’ proportion of fixed and variable costs on their payout policy and find that firms with higher fixed costs have significantly higher volatility in their future cash flows and more variable future operating incomes. These firms pay a lower fraction of their operating income in dividends and share repurchases. Finally, these firms return higher fractions of their payouts via share repurchases because this method offers greater flexibility. The results are robust to several alternate specifications and firm‐level controls, and show that firms’ cost structures play a significant role in payout policy choices.     

Avoiding market dominance: product compatibility in markets with network effects

As is well recognized, market dominance is a typical outcome in markets with network effects. A firm with a larger installed base offers a more attractive product which induces more consumers to buy its product which produces a yet bigger installed base advantage. Such a setting is investigated here but with the main difference that firms have the option of making their products compatible. When firms have similar installed bases, they make their products compatible in order to expand the market. Nevertheless, random forces could result in one firm having a bigger installed base, in which case the larger firm may make its product incompatible. We find that strategic pricing tends to prevent the installed base differential from expanding to the point that incompatibility occurs. This pricing dynamic is able to neutralize increasing returns and avoid the emergence of market dominance.     

Evidence on the Trade-Off between Risk and Return for IPO and SEO Firms

Do the low long‐run average returns of equity issuers reflect underperformance due to mispricing or the risk characteristics of the issuing firms? We shed new light on this question by examining how institutional lenders price loans of equity issuing firms. Accounting for standard risk factors, we find that equity issuing firms' expected debt return is equivalent to the expected debt return of nonissuing firms, implying that institutional lenders perceive equity issuers to be as risky as similar nonissuing firms. In general, institutional lenders perceive small and high book‐to‐market borrowers as systematically riskier than larger borrowers with low book‐to‐market ratios, consistent with the asset pricing approach in Fama and French (1993) . Finally, we find that firms' expected debt returns decline after equity offerings, consistent with recent theoretical arguments suggesting that firm risk should decline following an equity offering. Overall, our analysis provides novel evidence consistent with risk‐based explanations for the observed equity returns following IPOs and SEOs.