股权质押与大股东双重择时动机

择时动机是大股东决策和行为的重要影响因素,股权质押行为为我们提供了一个透明的研究视角。文章以大股东决策中可能存在的股票市场和信贷市场双重择时动机为考察对象,研究发现：大股东的股权质押意愿和质押规模与股票错误定价显著正相关,即上市公司股价被高估会推动大股东股权质押;相对于信贷紧缩时期,大股东在信贷宽松时期更愿意进行股权质押,且质押规模更大;股票错误定价和信贷政策会同时影响大股东的股权质押意愿和规模。文章结果表明,大股东股权质押存在对股票市场和信贷市场的双重择时动机。文章的研究结论拓展了关于市场择时和股权质押的研究文献,而且有助于深化对大股东决策动机以及大股东股权质押影响因素和经济后果的理解。     

要给证券市场正确定位

中国股票市场不是自下而上自发产生的,而是由政府自上而下建立起来的,政府是股票主要供应者,又是股票市场监管者,这决定了中国股票市场的初始阶段必然是政策市;由于对股票市场定位偏差和制度性缺陷,中国股票市场过度投机,无优化资源配置功能;现在解决中国股市历史遗留问题的条件已经成熟;不能把政府失效产生的问题都推给市场解决,解决中国股市的问题要靠政策与市场的合力,现在关键在政策力度.     

控股股东股权质押对企业创新方向的影响——股权制衡与企业可视性的调节作用

控股股东股权质押是中国资本市场中的一种普遍现象,虽然学者们围绕控股股东股权质押对企业创新的影响已经展开了诸多探讨,但鲜有研究关注控股股东股权质押与企业创新方向之间的逻辑关系。以中国2003-2017年A股上市公司为研究对象,从突破式创新和渐进式创新视角,探究控股股东股权质押与企业创新方向之间的逻辑关系,并进一步考察企业股权制衡和企业可视性在其间的调节作用。实证结果显示：控股股东股权质押会抑制企业突破式创新,但不会对企业渐进式创新产生显著影响;随着股权制衡不断增加,控股股东股权质押对企业突破式创新的抑制作用先增强、后削弱,即股权制衡在控股股东股权质押与企业突破式创新之间起着U型调节作用;企业可视性会削弱控股股东股权质押对企业突破式创新的抑制作用。结论有助于更加辩证地认识股权质押的创新后果,对促进企业创新和完善公司治理机制亦具有启示意义。     

The behaviour of Hong Kong stock prices

The primary function of a stock market is to allocate resources to the most profitable investment opportunities. If stock prices provide accurate signals for resource allocation, firms are able to make correct production–investment decisions, and investors are able to choose the most suitable stocks for investment. These choices are only possible if the market is efficient, that is, if stock prices ‘fully reflect’ all available information.

Hong Kong is now an international financial centre. Although Hong Kong's stock market is ranked as one of the five largest in the world in terms of turnover, little research has been devoted to the behaviour of its stock prices. This is a study of the efficiency of Hong Kong's stock market. It is based upon two widely accepted statistical tests, namely, serial correlation analysis and runs tests. Data used cover the daily prices of 28 major Hong Kong stocks over a period of four years from 1977 to 1980. The evidence is mixed; it does not provide clear support for the efficient market hypothesis.     

Mass media effects on trading activities: television broadcasting evidence from Japan

This study examines how information broadcasting through television (TV) media influences stock market activities. Consistent with the effect of TV information to attract investor attention, we find that increased information flow through TV is significantly associated with greater trading volume and larger price change. For information type, hard news from business-oriented programmes and earnings-related news strongly contributes to the attention effect, while the effect of soft news is weaker. Bid–ask spread widens for more TV information flows, suggesting that new information arrival in the market expands information asymmetry. Finally, the impact of TV is more influential for stocks with more individual shareholders than those with institutional shareholders.     

美国证券市场发展的历史演进

资本市场上美国新发行股票由1921年的1,822支增加到1929年的6,417支;1929年以前,美国政府奉行的是经济自由主义,在大危机的背景下,国家直接干预的要求成为必然。道·琼斯工业指数从1973年的1050点左右的高峰跌到1974年底570点的谷底,跌幅达45%左右。经济的持续上升带动了股市的繁荣。1987年10月19日是美国股市的黑色星期一,道·琼斯指数随着美国经济经济的持续增长,美国股票市场也走上了十年的大牛市之路。当然,美国证券市场的发展,既非平坦大道,也不是孤立突进的。影响股市兴衰的因素是多种多样的。有些是理性的,有些是非理性的。     

强制披露、盈余质量与市场化进程——基于制度互补性的分析

文章以2005-2009年沪深两市953家上市公司共4 765个样本为研究对象,控制了内生性后发现:由于法律制度尚不完善、积累的监管经验有限,控股股东往往倾向于让强制披露显得更加完整,以便赢取良好的市场声誉,从而加剧了控股股东掏空上市公司的隧道行为。为了隐瞒这种行为,盈余往往会被操纵。但是在市场化程度较高的地区,完善的法律保护与监管体系为强制披露的质量提供了制度保障,因此在这类地区强制披露与盈余质量显著正相关。     

我国股票市场指数与国际股票市场主要指数的联动性研究——基于协整分析

本文对2002—2009年中国股票市场与国际主要股票市场的每日收盘数据进行统计分析,运用相关性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验实证了上证综合指数、深圳成分指数分别与香港恒生指数、道.琼斯指数、日经225指数、法国CAC40指数和伦敦金融时报指数之间存在相关、协整关系。进一步研究我国股票市场与国际股票市场的联动性,结果表明,国际股票市场对我国股票市场的影响越来越明显。这表明中国股票市场日趋成熟,逐渐与相对完善的国际股票市场接轨。     

股指期货对股票市场效率的影响实证分析

通过分析香港恒生指数及其指数期货,研究发现,股指期货对现货价格具有价格发现作用。为防止伪回归问题对分析结果的影响,故采用协整检验和格兰杰（Granger）因果关系检验,就股指期货对市场效率的影响进行验证。研究结果显示,股指期货对现货指数确实存在价格发现功能。     

Irrational Mutual Fund Managers: Explaining Differences in Their Behavior

Documenting the disposition effect for a large sample of mutual fund managers in the United States, we find that stock-level characteristics explain the cross-sectional variation of the effect. The disposition effect, which is the tendency to sell winner stocks too early and hold on to loser stocks for too long, is more pronounced for fund managers who invest in stocks that are more difficult to value. Using different measures of stock and market uncertainty, we show that mutual fund managers display a stronger disposition-driven behavior when stocks are more difficult to value. We also find that the level of the disposition effect is monotonically increasing with the level of systematic risk (i.e., beta). In addition, we document that the trading behavior of mutual fund managers is partly driven by attention-grabbing stocks (dividend-paying stocks). Overall, our results suggest that stock-level uncertainty and trading of attention-grabbing stocks amplify the disposition effect and that differences in the effect can be explained by mutual fund managers' investment styles. Given that mutual funds hold a large fraction of the U.S. equity market, our findings add to the ongoing discussion whether professional investors can create stock mispricings and shed new light on market efficiency.     

Exchange rates change,asset-denominated currency difference and stock price fluctuation

This paper examines differences in the connectedness between exchange rates and stock prices for companies with different asset currencies on the Hong Kong stock market, and it seeks to explain those differences by proposing a hypothesis on asset-denominated currency difference. Under a framework of investor heterogeneity, we establish a dynamic, discrete theoretical model to analyse the connectedness between exchange rates, the stocks of local Hong Kong companies, the stocks of companies from the mainland and foreign exchange interventions. Using monthly data from January 2000 to August 2018, we adopt the time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) model to empirically study the dynamic relationships between exchange rates and the prices of both Hong Kong-based and mainland-based stocks. The results show significant differences in the ways that exchange rates and prices for the two types of stocks are linked. The exchange rates are positively correlated with mainland stocks and negatively correlated with Hong Kong stocks. Moreover, foreign exchange intervention is found to be an effective means for stabilising exchange rates, although such intervention tends to increase stock volatility.

Abbreviations: TVP-VAR - time-varying parameter vector auto-regression model; MCMC - Monte Carlo-Markov Chain method.     

Chinese overseas M&A performance and the Go Global policy1

It is well known that government plays an important role in the business activities of Chinese firms. Less certain is the effect this influence has on the wealth of those firms’ shareholders. We contribute to the literature by analysing stock market reactions to announcements by Chinese firms of overseas mergers and acquisitions (OMAs). OMAs are of particular interest because there can exist a conflict between the interests of the public sector in acquiring overseas assets, and the interests of the private sector in maximizing shareholder wealth. Our main dataset consists of 213 observations of 157 OMA events that occurred between 1994 and 2009, using share market returns from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and US markets. The aggregation of share price data across multiple markets, and the listing of firms in multiple exchanges, raise econometric issues for the standard event‐study methodology. To address these, we use a new, feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedure developed by Gu and Reed (2012) . On the basis of an analysis using both aggregated and disaggregated samples, and of daily and cumulative abnormal returns, we find consistent evidence that (i) Chinese OMAs have not lowered the wealth of shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms, and (ii) shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms have not fared worse under under China's ‘Go Global’ policy of encouraging outward investment by Chinese firms.     

Sleeping with the enemy: The perils of having the government on(the)board

We study the causal effect of unsought political connections on firm value. To address concerns of potential endogeneity and sample-selection bias we exploit the nationalization of Argentina's pension system, a unique natural experiment yielding exogenous variation in new political connections. We find unsought political connections to have a large negative effect on the value of newly connected firms. Yet this result only materializes when, in addition to becoming a shareholder, the government also obtains the right to appoint directors. Decreased stock liquidity or higher stock volatility do not explain this result, suggesting a channel that decreases expected cash flows to shareholders.     

中国股市晴雨表功能的长短期表现分析

本文以1995—2019年A股上市公司数据为样本,借鉴历史维度与国际股市比较分析,基于长期与短期、存量与增量视角,探讨股票指数与实体经济之间的关联性,论述中国股市晴雨表效应的特点与问题。研究结果表明:从长期均衡看,中国股指能够反映宏观经济发展趋势,但部分阶段存在背离现象;从短期波动看,股指相关性偏弱,预测性不强,股市晴雨表效应不仅弱于美国和德国等发达国家,甚至不及俄罗斯与印度等金砖国家。从存量看,大量亏损以及缺乏盈利能力的上市公司未能及时出清,较大程度影响股指代表性;从增量看,很多选择境外上市的新兴企业,并未包含在现行股指中,由此降低股市整体估值水平与股指质量。本文借助万得全A指数降低权重股对总股指的牵制作用,选择申万绩优股指数作为领先指标,但并不能提升股指短期波动对宏观经济的预测与警示作用,晴雨表效应未见明显改善,说明股指代表性的提升,并不能有效降低短期情绪面和政策面带来的较大扰动。依据实证结果,本文建议在存量方面尽快完善退市机制,在增量方面加快注册制改革步伐,引导更多优质潜力企业在A股上市,同时吸引中概股回归,以此提升上市公司质量和股指代表性,从而更为客观反映实体经济发展情况。此外还要大量引入中长期资金入市,增强外部机构投资者力量,助力股市短期波动回归经济基本面,促进其晴雨表作用的充分发挥。     

Germany's New Insider Law: The Empirical Evidence after the First Year

Abstract. This paper investigates insider trading activities in German stocks during the first year following implementation of the new Insider Law on 1 July 2002. It can be observed that insiders act as contrarian investors. They buy stocks after prices have fallen and sell stocks after prices have risen. In general, insider trades are very profitable. A typical stock purchased by an insider yields an abnormal return of almost 3 per cent during the 25 days following the transaction. In contrast, a typical stock that has been sold by insiders achieves an abnormal return of nearly −3 per cent over the same time period. Outsiders who copy the transactions of insiders can achieve nearly the same abnormal returns. Abnormal returns remain substantial even after transaction costs. The results suggest that prices of stocks in which insiders trade do not seem to be semi-strong efficient.     

Insider trading legislation and corporate governance

This paper analyzes the impact of insider trading legislation on corporate governance. In a context where large, dominant shareholders can monitor underperforming companies, managers have an incentive to give early warnings about adverse developments to dominant shareholders. This information is effectively a bribe to induce dominant shareholders to sell their stock and refrain from intervention. If insider trading is unregulated, dominant shareholders collude with management at the expense of small shareholders. The optimal regime forces the company to disclose all material information to the market. Private contracting between companies and shareholders leads to optimal insider trading regulation only if initial shareholders can enter a binding commitment, otherwise large shareholders and managers recontract at the expense of small shareholders. Enforcement also matters. European Union legislation requires inside information to be precise. Such a narrow definition creates a grey zone, where information is private but cannot be classified as inside information. As a result the effectiveness of corporate governance and firm value are reduced. Regulation in the US that treats shareholders with a stake exceeding 10% as insiders is potentially harmful.     

Universal banking,asymmetric information and the stock market

This paper aims to explore the role of the universal banking system in contributing to the stock market bust in the wake of the financial crisis 2008–2009 when bankers might have incentive to hide information from shareholders. We set up a stylized model of consumption smoothing involving universal banks that undertake both investment and commercial banking activities. Banks have private information about the outcome of a project that it funds. In the wake of bad news about the project, the banker has an incentive to sell lemon shares in a secondary market with the pretence of a liquidity crunch. Our model shows that such an incentive results in (i) a sharp discounting of stock prices, (ii) greater loan demand (iii) higher fraction of bank ownership of the borrowing firms, and (iv) heightened consumption risk resulting in precautionary savings by households. The magnitude of these effects depends on the market's perception about the preponderance of lemons in the stock market. A credible punishment scheme implemented by the government in the form of fines may moderate the stock market decline and consumption volatility due to information friction. However, it imposes a deadweight loss on private citizens because of a fall in all banks' expected profit. On the other hand, a “ring-fenced” banking arrangement along the way suggested by the Vickers Commission may entail a first order welfare loss due to the lack of diversification opportunities.     

影响我国股票市场价格变动因素的实证分析

通过选取沪、深两市10只不同行业、不同地区板块的股票,利用SPSS统计软件,采用主成分分析和因子分析的方法,分析了影响我国股票价格变动的因素,结果表明我国股市结构由一般市场环境、行业活动、公司绩效和各公司特殊活动几部分构成。     

On Ignorance,Intuition, and Investing: A Bear Market Test of the Recognition Heuristic

This study replicates recent tests of the recognition heuristic as a device for selecting stock portfolios. The heuristic represents a lower limit to the search for information, since simple name recognition is the least one can know about anything. Gigerenzer and others conducted original experiments in this field at the Max Planck Institute for Psychological Research's Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (the "ABC Research Group"). The ABC Group's tests support the use of the heuristic in a bull market environment. This study, conducted in a down market, reaches a different conclusion: Not only can a high degree of company name recognition lead to disappointing investment results in a bear market, it can also be beat by pure ignorance. Virtually the only finding of the ABC Group's study that we match here is that Americans are not very good at picking American stocks to outperform the market.     

中国股市的理性泡沫

传统理论通常把证券市场的泡沫与投资者的非理性行为混为一谈。近期的研究却表明在一个完全理性的市场中 ,泡沫依然可以出现。本文首先对我国证券市场存在理性泡沫的可能性提出多种理论解释 ,认为下列原因导致了我国证券市场泡沫的存在 :( 1 )上市审批制 ;( 2 )可供投资的证券种类少 ;( 3 )政府的托市行为 ;( 4)卖空机制的缺乏 ;( 5)套利机制缺乏有效性 ;( 6)上市公司很少分红 ,投资者买卖股票只是为了获得买卖差价。其次 ,我们通过分析所得的结果 ,提出应对理性泡沫的政策措施。