Structural change in China: the role of factor market distortions

This paper proposes a systematic accounting framework to decompose the reallocation of labour out of agriculture into factor market distortions and market-driven forces. The findings are twofold. First, the removal of factor market distortions is a dominant driving force of the structural change in China in the last decades, which contributes 50.52%, and market-driven forces account for the rest 49.48%. Second, the contribution of market-driven forces has been increasing with the deepening of market-oriented reforms, while the impact of the removal of factor market distortions has been decreasing especially along with the slowdown of labour market reforms after China joined the WTO in 2001. The results imply that further reforms that aim at correcting factor market distortions could still be an important impetus of structural change in the future.     

Regional disparity,transitional dynamics and convergence in China

Most of the earlier studies on the convergence of income in China are based on provincial level data with a few papers focusing on intra-provincial units’ transitional dynamics. The objective of this study is to fill the void in the literature by using county-level data which cover 1485 counties and county-level cities in 22 provinces for the period of 1997–2007. This paper makes several contributions to the literature. The findings in this paper show high persistence in income distribution among many spatial groupings. Thus the poor county-level units may remain relatively poor over time. This study provides very little evidence of convergence to the mean income in various spatial groupings. Furthermore, the empirical analysis highlights differences in transitional dynamics between cities and counties.     

中国劳动力市场的变化

日前,中国人民大学劳动人事学院院长曾湘泉教授回顾了2009年至今中国劳动力市场的四起重大事件,在此基础上分析了“中目劳动力市场供求关系”、“低工资时代的结束”、“劳资关系的力量对比”以及“政策的取向”等四个问题。最后给出八项政策建议。     

Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium

This paper investigates the long-term relationship between financial market development and economic development in Belgium. We use a new data set of stock market development indicators to argue that financial market development substantially affected economic growth. We find strong evidence that stock market development caused economic growth in Belgium, especially in the period between 1873 and 1935. Institutional changes affecting the stock exchange explain the time-varying nature of the link between stock market development and economic growth.     

The value-added tax reform and labor market outcomes: Firm-level evidence from China

The tax incentives designed to stimulate firm investment may have a large and unexpected impact on labor market outcomes. Using a comprehensive data set on Chinese manufacturing firms during the period 1998–2007 with a difference-in-differences approach, we examine the impact of the value-added tax reform in 2004 on the firm-level labor market outcomes. We find that firms in eligible industries and pilot regions (treated firms) enjoying lower costs of purchasing fixed assets under the reform tended to increase capital investment and reduce employment simultaneously relative to firms that did not have tax incentives (the control firms). Compared with the control firms, the treated firms became more capital intensive but had declines in labor share in value added and average wage. We also find that the employment adjustment is associated with increase in the share of skilled workers in terms of engineers and technicians, but not workers with a college degree or higher.     

The impact of E‐Verify mandates on labor market outcomes

A number of states have adopted laws that require employers to use the federal government's E‐Verify program to check workers' eligibility to work legally in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines whether such laws affect labor market outcomes among Mexican immigrants who are likely to be unauthorized. We find evidence that E‐Verify mandates reduce average hourly earnings among likely unauthorized male Mexican immigrants while increasing labor force participation among likely unauthorized female Mexican immigrants. Furthermore, the mandates appear to lead to better labor market outcomes among workers likely to compete with unauthorized immigrants. Employment rises among male Mexican immigrants who are naturalized citizens in states that adopt E‐Verify mandates, and earnings rise among U.S.‐born Hispanic men. There is no evidence of significant effects among U.S.‐born non‐Hispanic whites.     

Regional disparity and convergence of electricity consumption in China: A distribution dynamics approach

One critical factor that affects China's achievement of its peak emission by 2030 is total electricity demand. The aim of this study is to examine regional disparity in electricity consumption in China. The analysis is based on a panel database which is compiled at the provincial level. A distributional dynamics approach is then employed to reveal the trend and movement of each province within the distributions in different regional groupings. The mobility probability plot (MPP) is also employed to provide detailed information on the probability of change in electricity consumption. The results demonstrate significant divergence presents across provinces, over time and within different regional groups. The results can pinpoint the transition mechanism within each region so that appropriate energy policy can be formulated to accommodate future demand in electricity for different regions in China. The results suggest that regional specific energy efficiency policy is needed.     

FDI,labor market flexibility and employment in China

This paper discusses the influence and underlying mechanisms of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the labor market on Chinese employment. We analyze data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over the period 2000–2015, in the first instance to examine employment effects of both FDI and labor market flexibility through the moderating effect; here we verify the moderating effect with respect to labor market flexibility. Second, using subsamples, we explore the effects of regional and skill differences on the employment. Finally, to test the three mechanisms, we employ a mixed model of moderating and mediating effects. Contrary to previous studies, we observe a positive employment effect of FDI, with labor market flexibility playing a significant positive moderating role, a 1% increase in FDI is associated with an expected employment increase of 0.216. Additionally, wages, human capital, and R&D investment play positive mediating roles when labor market flexibility moderates the employment effect of FDI.     

The effects of state-led relocation on labor market participation: Evidence from China

The urbanization of China has been accompanied by large-scale state-led relocation (SLR) programs. This paper studies the effects of urban SLR on labor market participation. With three waves of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we find that urban SLR reduces labor market participation, on both the extensive margin and the intensive margin. The reduction is stronger for females, and there is some substitute effect between husbands and wives. The reduction is also stronger for individuals who are elder and less educated, and who choose lump sums of monetary compensation. Finally, we find no evidence that urban SLR experience stimulates business creation.     

The impact of changes in local labor market conditions on estimates of occupational segregation

Recent work by labor economists has suggested that differential labor market treatment of minorities (e.g., occupational segregation) may vary across local labor markets. This study assesses whether changing economic conditions in a local labor market affects the degree of occupational segregation by race and gender in the United States. Our empirical analysis finds evidence that the relative occupational structures of white women and black males are systematically related to changes in certain local labor market conditions.     

Promotions in the internal labor market: New evidence from China

Using unique personnel data from a firm in China, we analyze promotions in an internal labor market. Specifically, we explore the firm's hierarchy and promotion patterns as well as the relationship between promotions and compensation. Unlike previous works, we focus on promotions throughout the firm's hierarchy including rank-and-files and promotions across branches. By doing so, we hope to shed new light on the black box of a firm's internal hiring and promotion practices and improve understanding of the internal labor market.     

Grandparental childcare and female labor market behaviors: Evidence from China

Using matched employer-employee survey data from China, this paper examines the relationship between grandparental childcare and female labor market behaviors based on within-firm estimations. Our analysis reveals that grandparental childcare can significantly and effectively improve the labor supply of women with children at the extensive margin although not at the intensive margin. Moreover, grandparental childcare is found to enhance the monthly earnings of working mothers without requiring more intensive work. Grandparental childcare can also assist working mothers in advancing to managerial positions. These results suggest that the discrimination by firms against women with children is reduced and their productivity is improved when grandparental childcare is available. Therefore, grandparental childcare plays a crucial role in promoting gender equality and various measures should be implemented to eliminate factors that hinder the effective utilization of grandparental childcare.     

The impact of business regulatory reforms on economic growth

I investigate the link between business regulatory reforms and economic growth in 172 countries. I create a 5 year dataset on business regulatory reforms from the World Bank’s Doing Business reports. Then, I test the hypothesis that business regulatory reforms increase economic growth, using data on micro-economic reforms. These data do not suffer the endogeneity issues associated with other datasets on changes in economic institutions. The results provide a robust support for the claim that business regulatory reforms are good for economic growth. The paper establishes that, on average, each business regulatory reform is associated with a 0.15% increase in growth rate of GDP.     

The impact of intersectoral labour reallocation on economic growth

This paper explains economic growth differences in an aggregateproduction function framework, where labor reallocation fromagriculture to modern sectors influences labor efficiency growth.The econometric analysis uses a panel of 65 developing and industrialcountries over 1960-90. The results highlight: (i) differencesin the impact of labor reallocation on growth, resulting fromvariations in the intersectoral wedge in labor productivities;(ii) the significance of labor reallocation effects, even aftercontrolling for capital accumulation, initial conditions andcountry effects, and adjusting for endogeneity; (iii) theirrole in explaining slow productivity growth in Africa; and (iv)the role of initial conditions and capital accumulation in explainingdifferences in labor reallocation rates.     

Unionization,market structure,and economic growth

This article investigates the macroeconomic effects of unionization in a Schumpeterian growth model with an endogenous product market structure and a unionized labor market. The endogeneity of the market structure and the trade unionism of the labor market interact and jointly determine the equilibrium unemployment, firm size, number of firms, economic growth, and distribution of income between workers and firms. We show that unionization governs the distribution of income between workers and firms and the unemployment rate, but it does not give rise to any growth effect on the economy. In addition, unionization discourages potential entrants and hence decreases the equilibrium number of firms. These results echo the empirical observation in the sense that unionization raises unemployment and alters the distribution of income between workers and firms, but it does not give rise to a significant, real impact on the firms’ investment and the economy‐wide growth.     

Earnings mobility during labor market reforms in urban China

This paper provides empirical evidence on patterns of earnings mobility for China for the 2000s and before to study how the labor market reform in the late 1990s affects individuals' earnings mobility. We find convergent earnings mobility in the 1990s but clearly divergent earnings mobility in the 2000s, meaning that those with the highest earnings to begin with experienced the largest earnings gains after 2000. Policies would be desirable such as compensating low-skill workers by establishing government-initiated training programs. More generally, welfare policies are necessary to help disadvantaged workers avoid from low-income or poverty traps who suffer from negative shocks in market-oriented reforms.     

The dynamics of regional labor markets and active labor market policy: Swedish evidence

This paper analyses the repercussions of region-specific shocksto labor demand. Active labor market programs have been targetedat high unemployment regions in Sweden, a fact that should influencethe regional adjustment process. Fears have been expressed thatsome of the programs may have adverse effects on adjustmentby, for instance, locking-in displaced workers in depressedregions. The empirical results indicate that Swedish regionaladjustment has been comparatively rapid; labor mobility in responseto shocks, for instance, appears to be high by European standards.On the whole, labor market programs do not seem to have impededregional adjustment substantially.     

Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth: further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment; improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization; and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015−2030 compared to −0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015–2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.     

The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market

This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and it presents estimates of its basic parameters.     

Land tax and economic growth under credit market imperfection

We study the general equilibrium effects of land taxation on economic growth by extending the model developed by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to an endogenous growth model, where land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. Land taxation tends to hamper economic growth through the credit-contraction effect, but the overall direction on economic growth depends on the redistribution scheme of the tax revenue. Surprisingly, we show that if the tax revenue is fully refunded to entrepreneurs, the economy grows faster than a no-taxation economy. We calibrate our model and show that if taxation on land is raised by 1 percent, the land price initially falls by approximately 9.09 percent, while the economy grows faster by 0.6%.