Information Technology and Productivity Growth in the 2000s

Abstract. US productivity growth experienced continued productivity growth after 2000 even as investment, particularly in information technology (IT), slowed. This paper uses industry-level data to examine the link between average labor productivity (ALP) growth and IT in the post-2000 period. We use difference-in-difference and cross-sectional regressions to show that the link between ALP growth and IT-intensity is weaker after 2000 than before. These results are robust to alternative measures of IT-intensity such as the IT share of capital services, the level of IT capital depth, and the share of IT capital services in total output. We conclude that the post-2000 productivity gains in the United States do not appear to have been driven directly by IT.     

The Impact Of Technology Adoption On Firm Productivity *

In this paper an attempt is made to theoretically and empirically explore the impact of technology adoption on firm output and productivity. The theory is based upon a modified Cobb Douglas production function with capital, labour and technology adoption as arguments. Three versions of the model with varying degrees of endogeneity are developed and then tested upon a data set relating to the adoption of five different process technologies by 217 firms in the UK engineering industry over the period 1981–1990. All the results indicate that technology adoption has a positive impact on output and productivity.     

Technology Adoption, Human Capital, and Growth Theory

The paper explores a model in which growth is determined by a combination of human capital and technology adoption. At the heart of the model is the notion of "contiguous knowledge"—the idea that knowledge spreads out a certain distance. Because of this property of knowledge, a country can adopt existing technology only when it is sufficiently close to the technological frontier. Unlike the neoclassical growth model, the proposed model predictions are pessimistic for countries that are far away from the frontier. The model is thus able to account both for rapid growth episodes and economic stagnation.     

The Impact of Productivity Growth on the Costs of Production in Australian Manufacturing Industries*

The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of technological progress on costs of production in 34 Australian manufacturing industries. An analytical model incorporating the notion of factor-augmenting technological change was developed and applied to each industry. The results indicated that in most of the industries technological progress during the period 1954–55 to 1981–82 had been biased towards augmenting labour and thereby reducing the cost of labour per unit of production. The implication of the analysis is that there is a nexus between incomes policy and the rate and bias of factor-augmenting technological change.     

Impact of Intangible Capital on Productivity and Growth: Lessons from the Indian Information Technology Software Industry*

This paper examines the impact of intangible capital, including human capital and organisational capabilities on productivity, using India as an illustrative example. The research breaks new ground in creating measures of intangible capital at a micro level. Measures of tangible and intangible capital are used to estimate a ‘new economy’ production function with panel data. Generalised method of moments techniques are used to account for unobserved firm heterogeneity and endogenous explanatory variables. The results indicate that intangible assets have a major impact on software sector output. This has important implications for public policy and corporate strategy towards the information technology industry, including for Australia.     

信息技术、服务生产力与服务质量--面向企业--顾客开放生产体系的信息技术应用

服务业的一个重要特点是顾客参与服务生产,形成一种所谓的开放生产体系。因此信息技术在服务业的应用需树立企业———顾客的双重导向,兼顾双方的投入和产出,提高综合服务生产力,并进而从根本上提高服务质量。这是与制造业在封闭系统中进行技术创新和应用的一个重要区别,也是克服“生产力悖论”的一个突破方向。本文基于服务的特点,以服务的互动过程为主线,从互动过程的不同阶段探讨了信息技术对提高服务生产力和服务质量的作用方向,这对我国在信息经济时代实施大力发展服务业的战略举措具有一定的理论指导意义。     

中国的大国发展道路——论分权式改革的得失

本文从分权式改革的视角提供了一个自洽的逻辑框架,全面地分析了中国的发展道路。这个逻辑框架不仅能够分析中国前期改革的成功,也能够解释目前浮现的诸多社会经济问题。政治集权下的经济分权给地方政府提供了发展经济的动力,尤其是完成了地方层面的市场化和竞争性领域的民营化。但是,内生于这种激励结构的相对绩效评估又造成了城乡和地区间收入差距的持续扩大、地区之间的市场分割和公共事业的公平缺失等问题。由于中国的渐进式分权改革在很大程度上可以看作一个中央政府主导和控制下的机制设计问题,所以,在认清中国分权式改革的得失的基础上,正确地设计合理的改革方略,对于下一阶段改革的成功是至关重要的。如此,中国就可能走出一条独特的大国发展道路。     

Information Technology and Productivity Changes in the Banking Industry

This paper analyses the effects of investment in information technologies (IT) in the financial sector using micro-data from a panel of 600 Italian banks over the period 1989–2000. Stochastic cost and profit functions are estimated allowing for individual banks' displacements from the best practice frontier and for non-neutral technological change. The results show that both cost and profit frontier shifts are strongly correlated with IT capital accumulation. Banks adopting IT capital-intensive techniques are also more efficient. On the whole, over the past decade IT capital-deepening contribution to total factor productivity growth of the Italian banking industry can be estimated in a range between 1.3 and 1.8 per cent per year.     

The Diffusion and Adoption of Information Technology in Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises through IT Scenarios

The rapid economic and technological developments in the globally oriented business world make the strategic use of information technology (IT) essential. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are running behind regarding the application of IT and therefore it is necessary to stimulate the diffusion and adoption of this technology within this group. In this article a so-called IT scenario model is described, with which communication can be established with entrepreneurs from SMEs concerning the strategic application of IT. Theoretical approaches and concepts regarding the diffusion and adoption of IT are essential components of the model. The IT scenario model consists of an environmental aspect, six phases and three aspect areas. The model was put into operation through various interviews with SMEs in the furnishing sector.     

The Diffusion and Adoption of Information Technology in Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises through IT Scenarios

The rapid economic and technological developments in the globally oriented business world make the strategic use of information technology (IT) essential. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are running behind regarding the application of IT and therefore it is necessary to stimulate the diffusion and adoption of this technology within this group. In this article a so-called IT scenario model is described, with which communication can be established with entrepreneurs from SMEs concerning the strategic application of IT. Theoretical approaches and concepts regarding the diffusion and adoption of IT are essential components of the model. The IT scenario model consists of an environmental aspect, six phases and three aspect areas. The model was put into operation through various interviews with SMEs in the furnishing sector.     

The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach

This article develops the first model in which, consistentwith the empirical evidence, the transition from stagnation toeconomic growth is a very long endogenous process. The modelhas one steady state with a low and stagnant level of incomeper capita and another steady state with a high and growing levelof income per capita. Both of these steady states are locallystable under the perfect foresight assumption. We relax the perfectforesight assumption and introduce adaptive learning into thisenvironment. Learning acts as an equilibrium selection criterionand provides an interesting transition dynamic between steadystates. We find that for sufficiently low initial values of humancapital—values that would tend to characterize preindustrialeconomies—the system under learning spends a long periodof time (an epoch) in the neighborhood of the low-income steadystate before finally transitioning to a neighborhood of the high-incomesteady state. We argue that this type of transition dynamic providesa good characterization of the economic growth and developmentpatterns that have been observed across countries.     

Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era

In this paper we argue that population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, may account for many cross-country differences in economic outcomes observed among industrialized countries over the past 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive modes of production. They do this as a means of countering their relative scarcity of physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector, and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in support of the theory based on an examination of broad wage movements, employment changes, and computer adoption patterns for a set of OECD countries. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O33, J31, J11.     

The Post Office vs. Parcel Delivery Companies: Competition Effects on Costs and Productivity

The main purpose of this study is to evaluate whether the competition factor affects cost reduction or TFP growth, even when ownership is maintained by the public sector. For empirical investigation, we selected the parcel delivery market in Japan. Formerly monopolized by the Post Office, the parcel delivery market was dramatically affected by the entry of the privately owned Yamato in 1976, an event which saw the share of the Post Office begin its decline to only 14.9% by 1998. In this study, we estimate the total cost function of goods transported by using a pooled data set, and the hedonic specification of output is formulated in order to consider output characteristics. Our conclusion is that competition has contributed to cost reduction and TFP growth in the case of private companies but not in the case of the Post Office.     

非线性增长与经济增长动力转换

采用时变马尔科夫区制转换模型,分析了不同投入要素在不同经济增长阶段对经济增长贡献的差异,以及影响经济在不同区制之间跃迁的关键因素。研究发现:在三类经济增速区间内,人力资本投入对经济增长的拉动效应最强,在推动经济从中速增长向高速增长转移的过程中发挥重要作用;帮助经济跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键在于提高物质资本和人力资本投资的匹配度,使物质资本和人力资本的流动与产业集聚和城市化发展一致、与技术创新能力提升配合;渐进式转型有利于平滑增长路径,降低向高收入均衡收敛的临界值。     

美国信息技术对生产率的影响研究

信息技术的发展对生产率的影响研究,其文章较多,本文主要是根据美国的统计资料,从较长时间周期上研究信息技术对生产率的影响,力图得出其发展规律和趋势,这对研究技术进步与生产率之间的关系,完善和发展技术进步与生产率理论,具有十分重要的意义。     

中国的经济转型与经济增长质量:基于TFP贡献的考察

影响经济发展结果的不仅仅是经济增长的速度,还有经济增长的质量.经济增长的质量也是一国经济发展的重要内容之一.经济转型实质是一场大规模的制度变迁过程,经济转型的关键是"使制度正确",形成社会制度结构中的关键变量--社会激励结构,节约经济增长过程中的交易成本,形成提高经济增长质量的激励和治理机制.中国特有的经济转型与经济增长质量变化之间存在密切关系,本文运用全要素生产率的贡献度来对我国1978年改革以来的经济增长质量进行量化,在实证研究基础上得出体现我国经济转型的市场化率、工业化率、城市化率与经济增长质量之间是正向的相关关系,我国的经济转型在一定程度上促进了经济增长质量的提高.