Determining long-term parking needs at OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg

The economic growth and arrival of low-cost airlines in South Africa has led to a boom in air passenger travel. The OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg has seen increased passenger numbers of around 10% per annum. This, combined with FIFA requirements for the Soccer World Cup 2010, has sparked various investments.During the planning of the investment a knowledge gap was identified. A research study by the University of Cape Town has resulted in the development of a long-term sketch planning tool that can assist in exploring future scenarios. This paper summarises the development and application of the tool.     

Questioning airport expansion—A case study of Canberra International Airport

World air traffic is expected to grow substantially in the next decade and beyond. Associated with this are accelerated programs to build new airports and expand existing ones. However, aviation futures are increasingly contested globally on ecological and resource grounds, and in relation to the quality of life of affected local communities, and to growing fears associated with terrorism, wars and civil unrest. This case study addresses the issues arising from the privatisation and expansion of Canberra International Airport in Australia. Aircraft noise is a major concern for community groups, and land use planning also emerged as a key issue in a highly publicised conflict between a land developer and Canberra airport management. An important outcome is the recognition of the need for independent policy institutes—working in conjunction with community groups—to challenge the prevailing hegemony of the business-political nexus.     

Gravity models for airline passenger volume estimation

This paper presents two gravity models for the estimation of air passenger volume between city-pairs. The models include variables describing the general economic activity and geographical characteristics of city-pairs instead of variables describing air service characteristics. Thus, both models can be applied to city-pairs where currently no air service is established, historical data is not available, or for which factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not accessible or accurately predictable. One model is limited to city-pairs with airports not subject to competition from airports in the vicinity, while the other model includes all city-pairs. Booking data of flights between Germany and 28 European countries is used for calibration. Both models show a good fit to the observed data and are statistically tested and validated.     

Wayfinding in the passenger terminal of Hong Kong International Airport

One of the important features of airport passenger terminal layout is passenger orientation (wayfinding). Many people have difficulty in locating their desired destination within an airport despite the availability of information signs. This paper describes the use of a quantitative measure, or visibility index, to evaluate the ease of orientation in the departure lounge of Hong Kong International Airport. Based on the visibility index, a new set of level-of-service standards for orientation is proposed. The findings of this paper are compared with those of previous studies.     

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement.Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.     

北京大兴国际机场轨道交通专线延时运营方案设计研究

随着北京大兴国际机场夜间到港旅客量的增加,机场轨道交通运营时长已难以满足客运需求。为提升线路服务水平,延长夜间运营时间,同时减少运力浪费,需要平衡线路夜间客运需求、维检修需求及运营成本,制定延时运营方案。通过挖掘北京大兴国际机场及大兴机场线客流变化规律,分析线路夜间客运需求,结合大兴机场线夜间维检修要求,探讨延时运营对设备设施作业的影响,并进一步研究延时运营成本的构成以及成本计算方式。最后通过对比、分析不同的延时运营方案对夜间维修时间的影响、增开列次与路网换乘情况、运营成本的增加情况,提出当前大兴机场线宜采取上行单向延长运营30 min的方案,并结合大兴机场线实际情况设计线路延时运营阶段的列车运行方案。     

The implications of environmental costs on air passenger demand for different airline business models

Various environmental measures, including both regulations and fiscal instruments, have been used at airports globally to reduce the impacts of aircraft noise as well as aircraft engine emissions. Internationally, it is recognized that the costs of environmental and social externalities of air transport must be internalized and paid for by the aviation industry and its users. The use of noise related charges or taxes, which theoretically should be based on their respective social costs, has been proved to be effective at some European airports. This research aims to investigate the impacts of environmental costs, through environmental charges, on air passenger demand for different airline business models. The paper presents the mathematical models measuring the social costs of aircraft noise and engine emissions as a basis for setting up environmental charges. Six intra-European short-haul routes in two city pairs, namely London–Amsterdam and London–Paris, are selected for the empirical analysis. The environmental charges are then hypothetically applied to airlines with two different business models, full service carriers (British Airways and Air France-KLM) and low cost airlines (EasyJet). The results show that the potential percentages of demand reduction for both leisure and business passengers would be higher for Easyjet's markets, although with less environmental cost per passenger.     

The potential of rotorcraft for intercity passenger transport

There are many high-speed rail projects in Europe at different stages of development. They are supported on environmental grounds and as a means of reducing congestion on other modes, including aviation. High-speed rail, however requires major investment costs, takes a long time to come online, and involves considerable financial risks. A potential alternative that overcomes some of these problems makes use of rotorcrafts. This paper assesses the potentiality of civil rotorcrafts as part of the air transport system. Discrete mode choice models are used to forecast traveller choice behaviour when the rotorcraft is introduced and financial evaluations performed looking at the operating costs of the competing transport modes.     

The logistics of air cargo co-mingling at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport

This paper discusses the current efforts to bring further deregulation to international air cargo operations. This is done in the context of a special set of operations, known as co-mingling, which is allowed at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport. Co-mingling involves air cargo being transferred to another airplane that may or may not be in the initiating carrier's fleet. After the transfer is completed the cargo proceeds based on the second plane's pre-determined routing. This paper sets co-mingling in context with co-terminalization and cabotage operations by outlining the limitations of what the United States Department of Transportation actually mandated. While the operations are unique to the State of Alaska they do set a precedent for unilateral reform of international air cargo operations on the part of the US government. An economic appraisal of co-mingling operations is provided and is shown to be a source of efficiency gains for the US air cargo market.     

Assessment of land use compatibility and noise pollution at Imam Khomeini International Airport

This study aimed to investigate land use planning around airports, by employing Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in conjunction with an optimization algorithm using an Integrated Noise Model (INM) software, to establish the potential effects of aircraft noise at Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA) in Tehran. We also checked for land use compatibility with the noise levels around IKIA and the residents' reaction to the noise. The research was carried out in three stages: a) the establishment of Strategic Noise Map (SNM) scenarios of the airport operation in the years 2011, 2020 and 2030 using the INM software; b) the assessment of the results with emphasis on the study area land uses and application of RS and GIS and the exposure of residents at different levels of environmental noise; and c) the assessment of the intensity of aircraft noise annoyance at various times of day and night. The results indicated that developing IKIA together with the residential development will increase airport noise. Hence proper management and control of noise at IKIA is essential.     

Connectivity analysis of transshipments at a cargo hub airport

The paper investigates the interconnectivity of airfreight networks as temporal concentrations at airport. The connectivity of freight transshipments depends on both the quality of connections at hub airports and the quality of indirect flights compared to direct flights. Here connectivity of flight schedules is analyzed using a temporal wave structure to estimate the degrees of connectivity and the quality of connectivity.     

Access mode choice for relocated airports: the new Athens International Airport

To estimate the capacity requirements for all access related facilities of a new airport and to set pricing or operational policies it is necessary to forecast the share of each transport mode that airport passengers use. The development of these forecasts cannot be based on mere transfer of experience from other airports, particularly in the modern era of wide regulatory reforms, liberalization of the aviation market and increasing airport competition. First access modal split at the existing airport is determined via passenger classification and discrete choice modeling. Both are conducted via a passenger survey study specifically designed for this purpose. The resulting models are then employed to forecast access modal splits for the relocated airport by proper adjustment of the attribute values. The method is applied to the new Athens International Airport.     

Monte Carlo comes to Rome: a note on the estimation of unconstrained runway capacity at Rome Fiumucino International Airport

A new airport capacity concept has been advanced by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Unconstrained capacity represents the airport capacity with reservoirs of traffic always available and the use of all planned technological and air traffic managerial improvements. To establish its utility and estimate its value for the first time, the case of Rome Fiumucino International Airport is examined.     

Determinants of public reactions to Concorde test flights at the John F. Kennedy International Airport

Detailed noise measurements from early Concorde test flights together with community characteristics data from the US Census Bureau were used to explain monthly complaint patterns arising from neighborhoods surrounding the John F. Kennedy International Airport. Consistent with an earlier study, the number of complaints per aircraft movement positively varied with average loudness of the flights. Complaints were more common during the summer months. Additional neighborhood characteristics also determined the frequency of Concorde-specific complaints; e.g. communities with longer median homeowner tenure were more likely to be prolific complainers, all else being equal.     

Pricing congestion for arriving flights at Chicago O'Hare Airport

This paper estimates congestion fees for arriving flights at Chicago O'Hare Airport. The analysis finds that the level of congestion is only about a fifth of the magnitude of the congestion associated with departing flights. Congestion is much worse in poor weather conditions, and mitigating these weather delays is a primary objective of the current program to reconfigure the airfield. The analysis finds that the non-linearities inherent in models of congestion mean that even a very modest change in flight patterns reduces delays and congestion fees quite considerably.     

Inventory optimization for a customer airline in a Performance Based Contract

The supply of spare parts has a crucial role in the aviation sector, mainly due to the high costs of spare parts and to the strict availability requirements. In a stand-alone scenario, an airline owns the spare parts and manages the maintenance tasks by itself. A new trend consists of not owning the spare parts and delegate the maintenance tasks to an external company, taking advantage of a specific Performance Based Contract (PBC). The PBCs aim to reduce the ownership cost for the customer airline, while ensuring a target system performance. Spare parts become a variable cost for the customer airline and a business income for the maintenance supplier, which is commonly another airline.This paper proposes an innovative model, i.e. the PBC-METRIC, which supports the customer airline manager to minimize the spare parts supply cost, in compliance with the airline availability requirements and with respect to the PBC. In detail, the PBC-METRIC models a multi-echelon, multi-item, single-indenture, multi-transportation network, by an innovative two-steps algorithm, defining the PBC specifications as modelling variables and parameters. A case study on a European airline, with the role of customer in a PBC, illustrates the outcome of the model.     

Relaxing the perimeter and high-density rules: implications for Washington Dulles International Airport

The Perimeter and High-Density Rules have been the foundation upon which the physically limited capacity of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport has been allocated. The perimeter rule at National Airport requires nonstop scheduled airline flights from that airport to serve destinations within a 1250-mile perimeter. The distance limit was initially introduced for a combination of reasons including environmental conservation (especially with respect to noise nuisance) and the desire to offer some protection for other airports in the Washington DC area as they built up traffic to reach a critical mass. The US Senate has recently taken actions to adjust the perimeter rule at National Airport. Any major relaxing of the rule will have implications for the other major airports in the National Capital Region; namely Washington Dulles International Airport and Baltimore–Washington International Airport. The resultant knock-on effects of this development on the wider economy of the region is examined here. The main attention of the paper is on the impact of any major change in the perimeter rule on Washington Dulles International Airport, and on the subsequent knock-on effects this would have on the region's employment level and structure.     

Modeling aggregate air-travel itinerary shares: logit model development at a major US airline

This study reports the results of aggregate air-travel itinerary share models estimated at the city-pair level for all city-pairs in the US. These models determine the factors that influence airline ridership at the itinerary level and support carrier decision-making. The models are estimated using aggregate multinomial logit methodology and use comprehensive data. Independent variables for the models measure various itinerary service characteristics: level-of-service, connection quality, carrier, carrier market presence, fares, aircraft size and type, and time of day. The results are intuitive, and validation tests indicate that the models outperform existing methods. Finally, the impacts of changing various itinerary service attributes on carrier market share are discussed.     

Forecasting passenger load for a fixed planning horizon

This paper presents a forecasting system for predicting the number of boarding passengers on each of the next N departure dates of a particular flight leg using as input the booking levels made for the next N departure dates of that flight leg. A forecasting system that gives good estimates of future boardings of a particular flight leg is an important and essential tool for route management in the airline industry. The proposed forecasting system consists of a Kalman filter, which optimally integrates a large class of reservation measurements from a variety of sources and at arbitrary times, which is the case of the data, considered here. The accuracy of the predictions for a case study proved to be promising.