Measuring capacity utilization and excess demand

This paper investigates the usefulness of qualitative data on capacity utilization (CU) in approximating various macroeconomic variables which are not covered by direct statistical measurement. By help of a model of demand distribution over firms, the relation between a qualitative CU measure, an ‘ideal’ CU measure, and excess demand, is studied for changing levels of aggregate demand. The model is then used to derive time series for capacity, utilization and excess demand from a qualitative CU index and an index of production. Results suggest that qualitative data may provide better measurement of capacity and utilization than, e.g., the Wharton index, and may also perform well in the measurement of excess demand.     

Capacity utilization and depreciation-in-use

In this paper, the effect capacity utilization has on the depreciation of capital goods is studied, starting from a quadratic approximation to a normalized short-run cost function. Expressions for the optimal rate of capacity utilization, the demands for labour and energy, and for investment are obtained. Investment is a function of past capital stock, expected future capital stock, expected future relative prices and expected future depreciation rates. Expectations are modelled via instruments. The model is tested using US total manufacturing quarterly data. Depreciation dependent upon usage is found to be both statistically and economically significant.     

Cost structure and capacity in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries

The parameters of the short-run cost function are estimated for three vessel types taking part in the Norwegian pelagic fisheries: purse seine vessels, trawlers, and coastal vessels. The generalized translog functional form is used. Estimates of returns to scale are calculated and the results indicate that there are substantial economies of scale in all vessel classes. It is further investigated whether excess capacity varies with vessel size and age. The analysis suggests increased quotas per vessel to avoid rent dissipation. With the total allowable catch given, the number of participating vessels must be reduced.     

Demand uncertainty and capacity utilization in airlines

This paper studies the relationship between demand uncertainty—the key source of excess capacity—and capacity utilization in the US airline industry. We present a simple theoretical model that predicts that lower demand realizations are associated with higher demand volatility. This prediction is strongly supported by the results of estimating a panel GARCH framework that pools unique data on capacity utilization across different flights and over various departure dates. A one unit increase in the standard deviation of unexpected demand decreases capacity utilization by 21 percentage points. The estimation controls for unobserved time-invariant specific characteristics as well as for systematic demand fluctuations.     

Economic capacity estimation in fisheries: A non-parametric ray approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has generally been adopted as the most appropriate methodology for the estimation of fishing capacity, particularly in multi-species fisheries. More recently, economic DEA methods have been developed that incorporate the costs and benefits of increasing capacity utilisation. One such method was applied to estimate the capacity utilisation and output of the Scottish fleet. By comparing the results of the economic and traditional DEA approaches, it can be concluded that many fleet segments are operating at or close to full capacity, and that the vessels defining the frontier are operating consistent with profit maximising behaviour.     

Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly

Summary.  This paper studies the impact of uncertain demand on firms’ capacity decisions when they operate in an oligopolistic environment. We define a two-stage game where firms choose capacity in the first stage without knowing which state of Nature is going to realize, and output levels in the second, knowing which state is realized. We prove the existence of a symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium at which firms are in excess capacity compared with the capacity they would choose in the Cournot certainty equivalent game. Received: May 17, 1996; revised version July 31, 1996     

Species diversity, fishing induced change in carrying capacity and sustainable fisheries management

It is well established in the fisheries management literature that marine ecosystems are complex and marine species depend on one another. As a result, it is important to account for species diversity to ensure sustainable management. In addition, recent research published in the marine sciences literature has provided unequivocal evidence that fishing activities destroy habitats and inhibit production of planktons. This paper illustrates that if a conventional bioeconomic model is employed, an optimum effort policy as opposed to quota appears to result in sustainable management even if fishing impacts carrying capacity. However, the so-called optimum effort may collapse the stock if species diversity is not accounted for. Conversely, if species diversity and the impact of fishing on carrying capacity are considered, neither the equilibrium quota nor effort may guarantee sustainable yield.     

Capacity utilization and technology shocks in the US manufacturing sector

The ability of real business cycle models to generate reasonable aggregate fluctuations depends on the time series properties of technology shocks measured by the change of total factor productivity. Three specifications of a non‐parametric productivity analysis which correct to different degrees for variations of capacity utilization are compared in this article using data for three‐ and four‐digit US manufacturing industries during the years 1958–1996. The results show that correcting for utilization generally leads to substantially smaller technology shocks that are less strongly correlated with growth of output and hours. Moreover, the probability of technological regress is considerably lower after the correction.     

Static efficiency decompositions and capacity utilization: integrating economic and technical capacity notions

Starting from existing static decompositions of overall economic efficiency on nonparametric production and cost frontiers, this article proposes more comprehensive decompositions including several cost-based notions of capacity utilization. Furthermore, in case prices are lacking, we develop additional decompositions of overall technical efficiency integrating a technical concept of capacity utilization. These new efficiency decompositions provide a link between short and long run economic analysis and, in empirical work, avoid conflating inefficiency and differences in capacity utilization. An empirical analysis using a monthly panel of Chilean hydro-electric power plants illustrates the potential of these decomposition proposals.     

Threshold cointegration between inflation and US capacity utilization

An analogue to the Phillips curve shows a positive relationship between inflation and capacity utilization. Some recent empirical work has shown that this relationship has broken down when using data after the mid-1980s. We empirically investigate this issue using several threshold error correction models. We find, in the long run, a 1% increase in the rate of inflation leads to approximately a 0.0046% increase in capacity utilization. The asymmetric error correction structure shows that changes in capacity utilization show significant corrective measures only during booms while changes in inflation correct during both phases of the business cycle with the corrections being stronger during recessions. We also find that, in the short run, changes in the inflation rate do Granger cause capacity utilization while changes in capacity utilization do not Granger cause inflation. The Granger causality from inflation to capacity utilization can be interpreted as supporting recent calls made in the popular press by some economists that it may be desirable for the Federal Reserve Bank to try to induce some inflation. However, it is also possible to interpret these Granger causality results as arising because both variables respond to some more fundamental set of variables with the inflation rate simply responding sooner. The lack of Granger causality from capacity utilization to inflation casts doubt on the older view that capacity utilization could be a leading indicator for future inflation.     

Economic versus physical input measures in the analysis of technical efficiency in fisheries

The measurement of technical efficiency requires the estimation of an appropriate production frontier. This is based on a set of inputs that are assumed to influence the level of output. Deviations from this frontier production function are separated into random variation and inefficiency. However, mis-specification of the production function through the use of inappropriate input measures may result in a bias in the measures of inefficiency. In fisheries, production is generally assumed to be a function of stock size, fishing time and the level of physical inputs employed. Defining the appropriate levels of physical inputs, however, is not straightforward, and several alternative measures are available. While economic measures of capital are more intuitively appealing, physical measures are generally readily available and hence less costly to collect. In this study, technical efficiency is measured for three fleet segments operating in the North Sea using three different gear types. The effects of using different measures of capital in the production frontier on the efficiency estimates are examined.     

Presence of foreign investors in privatized firms and privatization policy

This paper investigates how the presence of foreign investors in privatized firms affects privatization policy in a mixed oligopoly. We find that an increase in the stockholding ratio of foreign investors in a privatized firm increases the optimal degree of privatization, whereas an increase in the penetration of foreign firms in product markets reduces it. These results imply that the degree of openness of financial markets and that of product markets have contrasting implications for the optimal privatization policy.     

Expectations,capital formation,sales and capacity utilization

A model is developed and tested to relate capital formation, sales and capacity utilization in manufacturing to expected inflation and expected interest rates through anticipated real wealth effects. Expected future inflation causes purchases of storeable manufactured goods in advance and accumulations of physical capital. The former increases capacity utilization, while the latter decreases it. Expected increases in interest rates have an impact on sales and capital formation opposite to that of expected increases in prices. Finally, if expected inflation is accompanied by a propertionate increase in expected interest rates, sales decline more than capital formation, and hence capacity utilization contracts.     

Input cost, capacity utilization and substitution in the short run

This article studies the behavior of input cost shares in an environment where labor is costly to adjust, materials can be adjusted at no cost and capital is fixed. A model relating cost shares with relative prices and adjustment costs is proposed, allowing joint estimation of the elasticity of substitution and the adjustment cost function, which is an unknown function of the capacity utilization. Based on a panel of more than 700 manufacturing firms, we find evidence of strong input share variations according to the degree of capacity utilization. The estimated shapes of adjustment costs curves of labor are in agreement with our theoretical model, and we obtain sensible elasticities of substitution estimates. Based on such estimates, we find evidence of a negative (positive) bias in downturns (recoveries) in conventional productivity growth measures.     

Bank and investment fund monitoring of privatized firms in Russia1

The active monitoring of enterprises is an important aspect of the transformation of Russian firms into efficient, commercially viable entities. This paper uses detailed case study evidence to provide insights into the mechanisms and processes adopted by investment funds, as equity holders; and banks, as debt providers, to monitor the enterprises in which they invest. The findings provide evidence of the importance of direct involvement and the development of relationships to counteract the shortcomings of the legal infrastructure and financial reporting mechanisms.     

Determinants of capacity utilization by firms in less developed countries

The factors which influenced the capacity utilization decision of two hundred firms in the light manufacturing sector in Thailand during the period 1962–1974 were analyzed. The profit-maximizing capacity utilization rate for each firm was calculated using the projected balance sheets and income statements the firms prepared at the time of their initial investment. This ‘optimal’ rate was roughly twice the rates chosen by the firms. The extent of nonoptimal capacity underutilization of a firm was a function of the nationality of the firm's owner, entry date, number of firms in the industry, projected profits, and the manager's perceived risk of multishift operations.     

Competing wage claims,cost inflation,and capacity utilization

This paper develops a theory of competing wage claims and cost inflation, and attempts to integrate this theory into the core of modern macroeconomic analysis. Specifically, the paper proposes an explanation for wage inertia and wage interdependence based on an application of duopoly theory to labor unions, and incorporates this microeconomic theory of labor union behavior into a macroeconomic general equilibrium model with goods, money, and bonds as well as two kinds of labor. Special emphasis is placed on the interplay between demand and cost factors in the inflation process and on the implications of wage competition among labor unions for the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the short and long run.     

Equilibrium business cycles with idle resources and variable capacity utilization

Summary A real business cycle economy is studied in which some capital is idle each period and the fraction of capital left idle varies in response to technology shocks. Previous equilibrium business cycle models have the characteristic that the entire stock of capital is used for production in each period. Our objective is to determine whether incorporating idle resources, something regularly observed in actual economies, significantly affects the cyclical properties of the model and hence changes our views about the importance of technology shocks for aggregate fluctuations. In our analysis we do not assume an aggregate production function, but instead model production as taking place at individual plants that are subject to idiosyncratic technology shocks. Each period the plant manager must choose whether to operate the plant or to let the plant remain idle. We find that the cyclical properties of this model are surprisingly similar to those of a standard real business cycle economy. One difference is that the model displays variation in factor shares while the standard models does not.The authors acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation.     

The role of inventories and capacity utilization as shock absorbers

We examine the role of inventories and capacity utilization (of both capital and labor) for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations. We document a new set of facts regarding the U.S. cyclical regularities of inventories and capacity utilization. First, we find that capital utilization and the flows of services from both capital and labor are procyclical, and comove with the holdings of inventories. Second, we find that labor utilization is procyclical as well, but is weakly negatively correlated with inventories. We build a model that accounts for these facts, and also accounts for the stylized inventory facts, i.e., inventory holdings are procyclical, while the inventory-to-sales ratio is countercyclical. The analysis is centered on the effects of two possible shocks: preference (demand) shocks and technology shocks. Our model shows that inventories and the rate of capital utilization are mostly complements, while inventories and the rate of labor utilization are mostly substitutes. It further shows that temporary demand shocks emphasize the role of inventories as being a “shock absorber,” whereas high-persistence demand shocks, as well as technology shocks of any persistence, emphasize the role of inventories as being a complement to consumption.