我国跨国公司汇率风险的运营性对冲实证分析

本文首先回顾30多年来跨国公司管理汇率风险的运营性对冲战略的发展。在此基础上，用数个指标将这些战略量化，构建了这些指标对汇率风险的影响的模型，并选取我国具有代表性的194个公司作为样本，分析了运营性对冲的绩效。最后，对于我国跨国公司的运营性对冲战略提出了相关的政策建议。     

Exchange rate exposure: Evidence from China

This paper examines exchange rate exposure using a sample of Chinese firms. To measure RMB exchange rate volatility and jump risk, we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to the industry‐specific nominal effective exchange rate (I‐NEER) for 13 Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2001 to 2017, We find that exchange rate risks do affect firm value at the industry level, and the effect is more significant for the jump risks that are more difficult to hedge and in the sample period when hedge activities are less likely to occur. Our results suggest that the exposure puzzle could be a result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging. Firm‐level analysis finds that exchange rate risk affects firm value for more than 20% of Chinese firms, and a firm's exchange rate exposure varies with the firm's characteristics.     

外汇风险对冲和公司价值:基于中国跨国公司的实证研究

2005年7月人民币汇改以来,人民币升值,特别是相对于美元大幅升值,其不利影响开始显现,我国不少跨国公司使用外汇衍生品来对冲人民币汇率升值带来的风险。然而,尽管不少国外学者对金融衍生品使用和公司价值的关系进行了深入研究,但以中国公司为样本的研究仍很少见。中信泰富等衍生品投机事件和2008年金融危机的发生使得我国学者对金融衍生工具的作用和性质争议不断,使用外汇衍生品对冲外汇风险是否增加公司价值仍是一个有待深入研究的问题。本文基于2007年至2009年968家中国跨国公司的数据,实证检验了外汇衍生品使用和公司价值的关系,发现外汇衍生品使用带来了约10%的价值溢价,这一重要发现和基于发达国家的不少研究相一致。该研究成果支持了外汇衍生品在汇率风险管理中的积极作用和加快发展我国外汇衍生品市场特别是交易所市场以掌握人民币汇率定价权的重要性和紧迫性。     

Bilateral and Third‐Country Exchange Rate Effects on Multinational Activity

In an earlier paper, we showed that bilateral exchange rates are important determinants of multinational activity of both the US and Japan and that increases in the bilateral and third‐country exchange rates exert opposing effects on bilateral multinational activity. Furthermore, the signs of the exchange rate coefficients differ between Japan and the US. In this paper, we formulate a three‐country model with coexisting exporters and multinational firms that engage in Cournot competition to rationalize these effects. In this model, we identify two counteracting effects which govern the bilateral and third‐country effects of an exchange rate increase on bilateral multinational activity. Our theoretical framework is flexible enough to explain the Japanese as well as the US patterns of exchange rate effects and it allows us to identify those factors that are responsible for the respective differences.     

Is hedging successful at reducing financial risk exposure?

This article analyses whether firms use risk management instruments for hedging or speculative purposes. First, by analysing the relationship between the firm’s stock returns and financial risks in 567 Euronext firms, we measure the firm’s exposure to risk. Next, we investigate the effect of hedging in such exposures, addressing simultaneously the endogeneity of hedging decision through a treatment effect methodology. We have found that firms in our sample display higher percentages of exposure, when weighed against preceding studies, and confirmed that hedging reduces the level of the underlying financial exposure, concluding that firms use risk management instruments with hedging purposes.     

Exchange rate exposure, foreign currency derivatives and the introduction of the euro: French evidence

We investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on exchange rate exposures for French corporations and examine the corporate use of foreign currency derivatives to hedge exchange rate exposure post-Euro. Our findings indicate that the introduction of the Euro is associated with both a reduction in the number of firms that have significant exchange rate exposure and the absolute size of exposure. Consistent with these reduced exposures, French firms use foreign currency derivatives less intensively. Furthermore, the use of foreign currency derivatives is found to be associated with lower exchange rate exposure but there is insufficient evidence that these instruments are more effective in the post-Euro environment.     

Form of Ownership and Financial Constraints:Panel Data Evidence From Flow of Funds and Investment Equations

This paper analyzes the effects of the form of ownership on the substitutability between internal and external sources of finance in Italy. In particular, we test whether financial constraints are more severe for independent firms compared to members of large national business groups and subsidiaries of foreign multinational corporations. The results obtained from flow of funds and investment equations estimated for a panel of Italian companies imply that independent firms face more severe financial constraints. In fact, not only members of national groups and subsidiaries of multinational corporations find it easier to substitute cash flow with external finance when the former falls but they do not display excess sensitivity to cash flow and debt in their investment decisions.     

The Effects of Foreign Currency Derivatives on the Monetary Policy Exchange Rate Channel in China

This paper examines changes in the monetary policy exchange rate channel in the presence of foreign currency derivatives (FCD) markets in China. Initially a theoretical macroeconomics model incorporating the exchange rate risk hedging is presented, and this is followed by an empirical test. A theoretical model implies that with more firms using foreign currency derivatives to hedge the exchange rate risk, the effect of the exchange rate on the net exports will be weaker and may even be reversed. The empirical section uses Structure Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models with China's monthly macro data over the 2000–2013 period to assess the impact of the FCD market on the exchange rate channel. Empirical support for the changes in the exchange rate channel transmission is found. By impulse response function (IRF) analysis, with the emergence of the domestic FCD market in China, in the long run the probability becomes higher that the negative effect of RMB appreciation on China's net exports to the US is reversed; meanwhile the negative effects of RMB appreciation on the overall net exports and the net exports to the EU become gradually weaker on average.     

Rethinking the Financialisation of Non-Financial Corporations: A Reappraisal of US Empirical Data

This article assesses the claims of the shareholder value literature of the effects of financialisation on non-financial corporations and, particularly, the claim that fixed capital accumulation in the United States has been impeded by the increasing financial payments of non-financial corporations, and also by these firms transforming themselves into rentiers. The financialisation explanation of macro patterns assumes that trends in the 1970s and early 1980s are representative of the pre-financialisation era but that is not so. Another complication is the global sphere. The vast expansion of majority-owned foreign affiliates from the mid-1990s suggests that the managers of US non-financial corporations did not abandon growth objectives. Claims about rentieralisation also require further investigation. On the one hand, it is misleading to treat all external investment as a financial asset and to assume that corporate dividends provide a robust proxy for financialisation. On the other hand, the shift to external accumulation by US non-financial corporations is obscured due in part to the conceptual limitations of direct investment data, and the widespread strategy of forming non-bank holding companies to funnel cross-border activities.     

Export,Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case

Abstract. This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade with firms exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market on which one firm can trade the foreign currency. We investigate two settings: First, we assume that hedging and output decisions are taken simultaneously. It is shown that hedging is exclusively done for risk‐managing reasons as it is not possible to use hedging strategically. Second, the hedging decision is made before the output decisions. We show that hedging is not only used to manage the risk exposure but also as a strategic device.     

Foreign debt and financial hedging: Evidence from Australia

We investigate the role of foreign currency denominated debt (FCDD) as a natural hedging instrument using a sample of Australian firms. Our results show that the incidence of foreign debt use among industrial sector firms is associated with a lower level of exchange rate exposure. The practice of issuing foreign debt within the industrial sector also conforms better to the hypothesis that firms do so to satisfy a demand for hedging. In contrast, although the incidence of foreign debt issues is higher in the resource/mining sector, the underlying motive for such arises from a demand for financing.     

Exchange rate exposure at the firm and industry levels: Evidence from Turkey

The purpose of this study is to examine industry-weighted exchange rate exposure at the firm and industry level for Turkish plants. We use an unbalanced panel of plant-level data for manufacturing firms in Turkey during the years of 2002 and 2010 in seven industries. The results indicate that macro indicators seem to be a more significant influence on the exchange rate exposure. Moreover, industry-weighted openness is the most important factor to determine the exchange rate exposure for Turkish firms. We also find that the direction of exposure varies at the industry level.     

Operational and financial hedging for exporting firms

This paper examines the interaction between operational and financial hedging in the context of an internationally competitive but domestically monopolistic firm under exchange rate uncertainty. Operational hedging is modeled by letting the firm make its export decision after it has observed the true realization of the then prevailing spot exchange rate. Financial hedging, on the other hand, is modeled by allowing the firm to trade fairly priced exotic derivatives that are tailor-made for the firm's hedging need. We show that both operational and financial hedging unambiguously entice the firm into producing more. We further derive sufficient conditions under which operational hedging dominates (is dominated by) financial hedging in terms of promoting the firm's optimal output.     

Exchange Rate Exposure of Chinese Firms at the Industry and Firm Level

This study investigates the exchange rate exposure of Chinese firms at the industry and firm level based on the conventional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework. At the industry level, the dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH (DCC MGARCH) estimates demonstrate that the market model and three‐factor model are appropriate for exposure measurements, and industry returns are more likely to be exposed to unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate and the trade‐weighted effective exchange rate, particularly for manufacturing industries. At the firm level, although the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimates vary across markets, it is apparent that there is a relationship between firm size and exposure effects, which also show that lagged exchange rate changes have significant exposure effects on firm returns. This study finally suggests that non‐financial firms should set up special commissions to hedge currency risks of their future cash flows.     

German Exchange Rate Exposure at DAX and Aggregate Levels, International Trade and the Role of Exchange Rate Adjustment Costs

Abstract. This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways, e.g. by using multifactor modelling instead of augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model, application of moving window panel regressions and orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk. A further innovation lies in testing the theoretical implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and economic exposure. Based on time series and panel data of German Deutsche Aktien Xchange companies, Deutsche Mark/dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/gross domestic product (GDP) and negatively affected by imports/GDP. Moreover, as expected from theoretical findings, firm values and exchange rate exposure are significantly reduced by adjustment costs depending on the distance of the exchange rate from the expected long-run mean.     

Firms' Technological Trajectories and the Creation of Foreign Subsidiaries

Multinational firms are traditionally considered as firms possessing some technological lead and which are exploiting this proprietary advantage in international markets, but a growing literature has been arguing that multinational firms set up foreign subsidiaries not only as a means to exploit their own technology but also to enrich it. This paper provides some empirical evidence for this. The aim of the paper is to assess the effects of the creation of foreign subsidiaries on firms' technological trajectories.The idea is that by setting up subsidiaries in foreign countries, multinational firms can achieve some form of reverse technology transfer that can be expected to affect their technological trajectories.The empirical investigation uses data from 1992 to 1996 for a sample of 2185 Italian manufacturing firms. Results support the view that the creation of manufacturing subsidiaries has a positive impact on firms' productivity trajectories and this positive impact is greater when subsidiaries are created in regions where knowledge spillovers are expected to be relatively higher, such as the US.     

Does the traditional exchange rate fully explain firms’ exposure?

This study aims to explore the role of the cross exchange rate as a form of market competition, which has previously been omitted as an explanatory variable in estimating the risk exposure of the standard exchange. To the end, we develop a model of exporting firms that reflects exposure to market interaction and mark-up in a duopolistic export market. Using monthly data of stock returns and cross exchange rates of two oligopoly industries (i.e. semiconductor and steel & iron), our empirical evidence supports our hypothesis that cross exchange rates significantly explain firm value.     

Foreign exchange exposure and impact of policy switch – the case of Malaysian listed firms

This article undertakes an in-depth study of the foreign exchange exposure of Malaysian listed firms. We examine several issues related to firm-specific and overall exposure, including an evaluation of the efficacy of adopting a hard-peg on such exposure. Our sample consists of 158 listed firms and spans the 16 year period, 1990–2005. A multivariate model using four bilateral exchange rates is used to determine firm level exposure while panel data analysis using a random-effects Generalized Least Squares (GLS) model is used to determine system-wide or aggregate sample exposure. We find a total 71% of our sample firms to have significant exchange rate exposure, a rate substantially higher than that reported for most countries, especially developed ones. The US$ is by far the single most important source of exposure with 63% of sample firms exposed to it. The sign of the beta coefficient for three of the four currencies are negative, implying that our sample firms are largely net importers in these currencies. We find exposure to be time variant and dependent on the sector within which a firm operates. Interestingly, the panel data analysis which measures aggregate exposure, shows the US$ to be a significant source of exposure even with the adoption of the hard peg. The change in policy regime to a fixed peg following the crisis appears to have had no impact at either firm-level exposure or overall system-wide exposure.     

Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks

We use comprehensive firm‐level data to estimate the responses of heterogeneous Canadian retail firms to real exchange rate movements. Our analysis focuses on a period characterized by large fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, providing an opportunity to quantify both intensive and extensive margin responses in retail industries to real exchange rate shocks and to examine how those responses differ across firms, locations, and sub‐industries. Our results indicate that a real Canadian currency appreciation significantly reduces a retailer's sales, employment, and profits. The strength of this negative effect is decreasing in the distance of a retailer from the US‐Canada border. We do not find evidence of a strong relationship between real exchange rate movements and the number of operating firms nor the probability of firm survival. These findings are consistent with the view that a real Canadian dollar appreciation increases cross‐border shopping by Canadians, resulting in a negative demand shock for Canadian retailers, and the dominant response by firms to such a shock is through the intensive margin.     

Interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre-crisis Korea

This study empirically investigates interest rate and exchange rate exposures of banking institutions in pre-crisis Korea. Using the sensitivity of stock returns as a measure of the exposure, it is shown that Korean commercial banks and merchant banking corporations had been significantly exposed to both interest rate and exchange rate risks, and that the subsequent profitability of commercial banks was significantly associated with the degree of pre-crisis exposure. The evidence suggests that, along with the negative exposure of banking institutions, the sharp depreciation of the Korean won and high interest rates at the end of 1997 further deteriorated the banking sector's capital adequacy worsening the financial crisis. The Korean case highlights the importance of upgrading financial supervision and risk management practices as a precondition for successful financial liberalization.