Initial Conditions and Miraculous Growth: Why is South East Asia Different From Taiwan and South Korea?

The paper argues that the economies of East and South East Asia are a very diverse group, only some of which have grown rapidly over the past three decades. The fast-growing economies of South East Asia, especially Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia are in a number of important respects different from the fast-growing economies of North East Asia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The different colonial legacies have had important consequences for educational progress and the distribution of income and wealth. Government intervention has tended to be less growth-promoting and more oriented to goals such as inter-ethnic redistribution of wealth. The implications of these differences for future economic growth in South East Asia are discussed.     

Variations in the price and quality of English grain, 1750–1914: Quantitative evidence and empirical implications

Interpretation of historic grain price data may be hazardous owing to systematic grain quality variation — both cross sectionally and over varying time horizons (intra-year, inter-year, long run). We use the English wheat market, 1750–1914, as an example to quantify this issue. First, we show that bushel weight approximates grain quality. Then we show that cross sectional and intra-year variation are substantial and problematic, generating erroneous inference regarding market integration. Long run variation is significant, due to sharply declining international quality differentials, and this impacts estimated cost of living changes. By contrast, inter-year variation is smaller and controlled for more easily.     

North–South models of intellectual property rights: an empirical critique

Do Southern intellectual property rights (IPRs) affect Northern innovation? There is much theoretical debate on the impact of IPRs in the South on the incentives of Northern firms to innovate and transfer technologies to the South. While empirical research exists on the effects of Southern IPRs on Northern technology transfers, empirical evidence on the effects of Southern IPRs on Northern innovation is absent. This paper seeks to fill that gap. Using a comprehensive micro-database of US multinational firms and their foreign affiliates in developed countries, this study finds that patent protection in the South has statistically insignificant effects on the research and development of these firms. Rather, the patent regimes of developed countries matter significantly to the R&;D of these firms. Developing countries constitute a relatively small share of the world market so that variations in the patent rights of developing economies have contributed marginally to Northern incentives for R&;D.     

Fisher’s hypothesis,survey-based expectations and asymmetric adjustments: Empirical evidence from South Africa

Our study re-examines Fisher’s hypothesis for the South African economy in the post-inflation targeting era and presents two empirical novelties over preceding works for the same country. Firstly, we examine Fisher effect by making use of survey-based inflation expectations data for financial analysts, business sector, trade unions and households, hence making our study more disaggregate in nature. Secondly, we examine both short-run and long-run asymmetric cointegration effects in Fisher’s relation using the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model as an econometric framework. For the full quarterly sample of 2002:01 – 2019:04, our study finds interest rates respond more aggressively to falling expectations than rising ones, with a full Fisher effect found for financial analysts, partial effects for households and business, and no effect for trade unions. However, when the data is split into two sub-samples corresponding to pre- and post-financial crisis periods, we observe changing dynamics in which interest rates respond more aggressively to rising inflation, with partial effects being also found for trade unions. Policy recommendations based on our study are offered.

     

Intrafirm trade,input–output linkage,and contractual frictions: evidence from Japanese affiliate-level data

Review of World Economics - This paper revisits how vertical linkages between overseas affiliates and their parents are related to intrafirm trade by shedding light on variations in contractibility...     

On the microstructure of the german export boom: Evidence from establishment panel data, 1995–2002

This paper uses an unbalanced panel data set for exporting firms from manufacturing industries in one German federal state, Lower Saxony, to investigate the microstructure of the recent export boom. Looking at data for 1995/96–2001/02 it is demonstrated that a considerable number of plants start and stop exporting in each year, but that most of the export dynamics is due to positive and negative changes of exports in plants that continue exporting. A small fraction made of 4–5 percent of all exporting plants is responsible for around 70 to 80 percent of the gross increase in exports. Firms with expanding and contracting exports are found simultaneously in all broad sectors, technology classes and firm size classes. Patterns of export behavior differ widely between the plants over the periods investigated. JEL no. F14, E32     

Geographical location and urbanisation of the Swedish manufacturing industry, 1900–1960: evidence from a new database

Abstract

This article introduces a new database, based on official statistics, of regional manufacturing industries in Sweden. We employ this database to examine the distribution of manufacturing activity across Swedish regions and cities, 1900–1960. Over this period we observe an increasing concentration of manufacturing activities, reaching a peak around 1940, across the northern, southern and western parts (NUTS-I areas) of Sweden. Over the same period, the North-South divide in terms of manufacturing employment grew larger. Across counties (NUTS-III) and cities we, however, observe two shorter periods of convergence of manufacturing activities, in the early twentieth century and in the post-war period, whereas the inter-war period was characterised by divergence. These developments occurred to the backdrop of the urbanisation of industry in Sweden, as the rural share of manufacturing employment declined from roughly 60 to 25% between 1900 and 1960. We also find that the regional patterns of individual industries over time followed different trajectories, suggesting that that the determinants of industry location differed significantly across industries.     

Higher wages in exporting firms: self-selection, export effect, or both? First evidence from linked employer-employee data

While it is a stylized fact that exporting firms pay higher wages than non-exporting firms, the direction of the link between exporting and wages is less clear. Using a rich set of German linked employer-employee panel data we follow over time plants that start to export. We show that the exporter wage premium does already exist in the years before firms start to export, and that it does not increase in the following years. Higher wages in exporting firms are thus due to self-selection of more productive, better paying firms into export markets; they are not caused by export activities.     

Schumpeter and arrow: Who wins in Korea and Taiwan? A case method analysis of cross country industrial structure

A case study approach is applied to a cross‐country comparison of Korea and Taiwan to model their developmental patterns and to examine the implications of their approach to industrialization, with specific regard to the theories of vertical integration by Schumpeter and Arrow and the theories of asset specificity by Williamson. The implications of inflation risks, external debt financing, innovation incentives, and restructuring problems from the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis will also be examined. The methodology used is a case study of two industries: bicycles and semiconductors. The results of this study are being used to create two dynamic models of industrial development for the two countries and to provide reasons for the differences in development paths and the implications associated with the undertaking of two drastically different models of industrialization.     

Reconstructing Scandinavian farms 1660–1860: Sources in Denmark,Iceland, Norway and Sweden

Abstract

The great economic and cultural variations to be found in the preindustrial peasant societies of nearly all European countries does not mean that any attempt to make generalizations about them must be abandoned. It does, however, imply that such generalizations as are made can be meaningful only if they are based on a large number of local case studies over as broad a spectrum as possible. In Scandinavia there is a powerful tradition, reaching back to the eighteenth century, of the writing of provincial, parish and village histories, although the scholarly standards achieved in these have been very variable, and some areas have been much better covered than others in this way. And individual farms have been looked at in detail in only exceptional cases.     

Exports,imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.     

Market Power of Domestic Marketers and its Influence on the Consequences of the Korea–US and Korea–Australia FTAs on the Beef Market

Domestic, US and Australian beef, which are differentiated by country of origin, are sold in Korea. In this differentiated product market, tariff reductions through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are expected to strengthen the competitiveness of imported beef and, therefore, to mitigate the effects arising from the market power of domestic marketers. The present study develops a simulation model that evaluates this mitigating effect by explicitly reflecting the market structure that domestic beef marketers constitute. The simulation results indicate that the farm-retail marketing margin would decrease by 10.59% or 6.79% due to the Korea–US and Korea–Australia FTAs, respectively, if domestic beef marketers formed a cartel or an oligopoly market (i.e. the degree of market power is 0.5), while the marketing margin under a competitive market scenario is simulated to have no change. The value of beef production would decrease by 1009 million dollars if the marketers form a cartel and hence exercise monopoly power. The FTAs are simulated to reduce the value of beef production by 564 million dollars under the competitive market scenario.     

Energy prices and investment in energy efficiency: evidence from Chinese industry 1997–2004

The paper develops and implements a methodology for assessing the role of energy prices and new investment in reducing energy intensity in Chinese industry. Analysing a unique panel data set which reports firm-level energy consumption and price from 1997 to 2004, the paper finds: the energy prices, not only the current but also the past energy prices, are key factors that driving down firms' energy intensity for all three types of firms: state-owned enterprises (SOEs), domestic non-SOEs (NSOEs) and foreign-funded firms (FFEs); furthermore, SOEs exhibit a robust price-investment channel: responding to rising energy prices, SOEs tend to invest in new energy-efficient capital, through which SOEs reduce energy intensity; the same price-investment channels are less robust for non-SOEs or foreign-funded firms.     

Swedish Historical National Accounts, 1800–2000: Principles and Implications of a New Generation

Abstract

A new set of data and estimates of historical national accounts for Sweden is concluded with the project Structural Change in the Swedish Economy, 1800–1980: Construction and Analysis of National Product Series. This article provides a short overview of earlier efforts, beginning in the 1930s, to construct historical national accounts and an account of the present project. The new estimates resulted in partly new representations of economic growth and change. They are also compared with earlier data. Furthermore, effects of the deflation techniques ( i.e., double deflation) are analyzed by comparing the series with those resulting from single deflation. Finally, structural changes are analyzed using modern time series analysis.     

When is enough,enough? Advocacy,evidence and criticism in the field of urban agriculture in South Africa

In South Africa, the advocacy of urban agriculture as a means of improving the plight of the urban poor has been a major theme in the literature since the early 1990s. Ironically, the criticism of that advocacy has almost as long a history. To elucidate these two themes, this paper investigates the evidence on which the advocacy is based, outlines the criticism of the advocacy, and analyses the responses to the criticism. It suggests that continued advocacy in the face of disconfirming evidence is misplaced and calls for greater caution. It observes that responses to the criticism have been weak and concludes that continued advocacy and continued criticism, in parallel, hamper debate. Unless there is engagement between the advocates and the critics, not only will the field of urban agriculture suffer, but so will the urban poor.     

Japanese Banks’ monitoring activities and the performance of borrower firms: 1981–1996

We construct an index measure that quantitatively describes the monitoring activities of Japanese banks. Using micro data on Japanese banks and borrower firms, we examine the effects of bank monitoring on the profitability of borrower firms. We find significant positive effects in the periods 1986–1991 and 1992–1996, although there is no significant effect in the period 1981–1985. We also examine how banks’ monitoring affects borrowers. The results show that the positive effects of banks’ monitoring on borrowers’ profitability are mostly caused by screening effects, not performance-improving effects.

‘Los von London’: A comparative,empirical analysis of German and British global foreign banking and trade development, 1881–1913

The role of finance in the development of trade draws increasing attention from economists and economic historians. Yet empirical studies, especially from an historical perspective, continue to be scarce. This study analyses the role of German and British foreign banks in the internationalisation of trade during the first globalisation. It creates a novel data set on the bilateral trade of Germany and Great Britain with the rest of the world and the number and geographical distribution of German and British foreign banks between 1881 and 1913. Using an augmented gravity model of trade, the article shows that banks had a significant positive impact on exports and imports and that this effect was even more pronounced in case of German banks and trade. Moreover, the effect of German banks on trade is the highest in the years closer to bank entry, supporting the idea of German banks being initiators of trade. In contrast, the effect of British banks seems constant over time.