Intergenerational Wealth Mobility in France, 19th and 20th Century

This paper examines intergenerational wealth mobility between fathers and children in France between 1848 and 1960. Considering wealth mobility in the long run requires taking into account not only positional mobility (that is, how families move within a given distribution of wealth), but also structural mobility induced by changes in the distribution of wealth. Such changes are related to two structural phenomena: in the nineteenth century, the rising number of individuals leaving no estate at death and, after World War I, the decline in the number of the very rich who could live off their wealth. The paper studies the movements between these groups and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of wealth, taking into account the persistence at the bottom and at the top.     

Chromosomes and the Slutsky Equation: Lessons from 21st Century Genetics for 20th Century Economics

Reductionist scientific methodology has been at the forefront of economics research for much of the past 50 years. This short essay argues that recent discoveries in genetic engineering show that the study of complex phenomena might not be best served by such an approach, but rather by one that takes into consideration more evolutionary approaches. This provides a tremendous opportunity for the field of bioeconomics to establish itself as a major school of though, going into the future.     

议会政党的挫折:民国初年广东的中国同盟会及国民党

中国同盟会改组为议会政党国民党时,尽量吸收以议员、官职身份为“资源”的政治精英,以试图掌握中央、地方政权。为此目的,国民党只关注水平方向的动员活动,而忽略垂直方向的领导关系,因此未能构成坚固的指挥系统,亦未能将其认同民族共和国的意识浸透于广泛的社会人民,以使他们团结一致拥护议会民主体制。本文通过对广东的同盟会及国民党组织的地方、基层分析,作出以上的结论。     

20世纪的货币政策与股票市场兴衰

本文检验了美、英、德三国在20世纪实行的货币政策与其股票市场兴衰之间的关联性。结果发现：当产出快速增长且通货膨胀率维持低位时,股票市场多为繁荣;当通货膨胀持续上升且货币政策日趋紧缩时,股票市场也日渐萧条。借助对于上述几国战后数据的隐性变量VAR分析,本文证实了通货膨胀因素对于股票市场存在着明显影响。因此,中央银行可以通过降低价格指数的非预期性波动来维持金融市场的稳定。     

论十月革命对20世纪及当今世界产生的积极意义

尽管受到历史条件的制约,十月革命仍具有一定的历史意义。苏联的建立是十月革命的直接后果。从这个角度说,苏联在历史舞台上发挥的积极作用便是十月革命的历史意义之一。苏联的建立给20世纪乃至当今的国际政治以重大影响,具有积极意义的一面。     

20世纪中国三次经济自由主义思潮述评

19世纪末因亡国危机降临而激起的中国近代经济自由主义,在对系统性社会危机的响应和与国家干预主义及社会激进主义的论争中,分别于19世纪与20世纪之交、20中期和晚期,经历了三次潮涨潮落。显示了20世纪中国经济自由主义的演化历程,即从多种理论倾向逐渐收敛到发展中心主义的经济自由主义。     

二十世纪中国思想学术的主体是什么？

我们可以看到,二十世纪中国学术的主体是历史学中的实证主义,显然这同旧有的国家文化传统是一脉相承的,只是在现代更渗入了科学主义的思想影响与共鸣而已;然而就总体上言,仍然是落进了朴学的框架之中,至少造成的事实效果趋近于此。     

金城银行上世纪二三十年代的小本贷款述评

20世纪20年代末及30年代,“北四行”之一的金城银行为扶助处于困境的小本农工商业及解决自身存款逐渐膨胀而放款不易的困难,在华资商业银行中较早从事小本贷款业务并取得了一定的成绩。这种带有救济性质的低利息而又覆盖面广的小本贷款在银行本身获益的同时,给城乡小本经营者带来了资金上的便利,促进了城乡小本农工商业的发展。这一业务的开辟和迅速发展显示出金城银行对自身调剂农工商业使命的重视,同时也昭示了银行业只有时刻关注社会经济状况,把业务的进行与社会现实需要结合起来,才能得到更快的发展。     

论20世纪拉美国家进口替代发展模式

在拉美国家经济发展过程中,进口替代发展模式占有重要地位,在一定程度一定时期里推动了经济的发展,但由于实施中过于强调发展经济,对农业、国际收支、社会凝聚等的忽视,导致了严重的社会经济问题。在经济发展中选择一条适合本国国情的道路,发挥优势,重视民生,建立完善的工业体系,制定合理的财政及吸引外资政策是十分必要的。     

20世纪末中日积极财政政策此较

1997年年中,东南亚地区爆发了严重的金融危机,继而引发了范围更大、程度更深的东亚金融危机和经济危机.这次金融危机和经济危机对东亚、东南亚有关国家和地区造成了极其深刻的影响,这一地区的经济受到了重创,进而对世界其他国家和地区经济产生了明显的负面影响.受这次危机的影响,再加之国内因素的共同作用,该地区惟一的发达国家--日本在经历了长期萧条和徘徊之后,刚刚在20世纪90年代中期出现的景气复苏又被打断,经济再次陷入了严重的衰退和萧条之中.与此同时,该地区最大的发展中国家--中国虽然较为成功的避免了危机对本国经济的直接冲击,但由于国际经济环境急剧恶化,中国的外贸出口和外资引入面临了前所未有的困难,再加上国内经济原有的问题,国民经济同样也受到了较为严重的影响.面对着这样严峻的形势,中日两国政府在进行一系列努力尝试的过程中,都实施了积极财政政策,期望藉此刺激内需,最终实现经济的增长.本文将在回顾日本积极财政政策的基础上,对中日积极财政政策进行比较分析,力求从中探求到有利于中国今后有效实施财政政策的借鉴之处.     

20世纪上半叶冀中农村市场评析

本文主要根据陈翰笙等老一辈学者的实地调查资料,对20世纪上半叶冀中农村市场作一历史性回顾和实证性分析.从集市分布的密度、交易的品种、农户参与的比例以及农产商品率上看,当时都达到了一定的规模,农民生活的一部分逐渐与市场联系在一起,无疑具有积极意义.同时,作者指出旧中国市场交易中的虚假因素,即非现代意义的市场属性在许多情况下,农民并非富足,而是为解救眼前危机被迫走向市场,而市场给与他们的依然是贫困;而且,总体而言,市场收入对耕地收获的补充仍然有限.直接原因是粮食劳动生产率始终没有走出低水平循环的格局,成为农村市场发展的瓶颈.     

Cultural Enthusiasm, Resistance and the Societal Embedding of New Technologies: Psychotropic Drugs in the 20th Century

The societal embedding of new (medical) technologies involves not only market success, but also regulation and public acceptance. Cultural enthusiasm about their benefits and social concerns about their risks and dangers are in this respect important. Conceptualizing interactions between product championing, cultural enthusiasm and resistance, the article analyses three patterns of societal embedding: (1) hype-cycle, (2) contested embedding, and (3) controversy and stalemate. A fourth pattern of waves of enthusiasm and concern is proposed for technologies with unexpected side effects. This pattern is explored and elaborated with a longitudinal case study of the introduction of a particular form of medical technology: psychotropic drugs such as Veronal and Valium in the period 1900-2000.     

Cultural Enthusiasm,Resistance and the Societal Embedding of New Technologies: Psychotropic Drugs in the 20th Century

The societal embedding of new (medical) technologies involves not only market success, but also regulation and public acceptance. Cultural enthusiasm about their benefits and social concerns about their risks and dangers are in this respect important. Conceptualizing interactions between product championing, cultural enthusiasm and resistance, the article analyses three patterns of societal embedding: (1) hype-cycle, (2) contested embedding, and (3) controversy and stalemate. A fourth pattern of waves of enthusiasm and concern is proposed for technologies with unexpected side effects. This pattern is explored and elaborated with a longitudinal case study of the introduction of a particular form of medical technology: psychotropic drugs such as Veronal and Valium in the period 1900–2000.     

20世纪20至30年代的中德贸易条件及价格变动趋势分析

中德贸易在中国近代对外贸易中占有十分重要的地位,本文通过对民国中期中德贸易中主要进出口商品的价格指数及其变动的系统量化分析,对中德贸易的综合贸易条件,出口个别贸易条件和进口个别贸易条件分别进行细致的统计和计算。大量的统计数据证明,中德贸易个别贸易条件中出口贸易条件有利于中国的成份居多,而进口贸易条件却在朝着不利于中国的方面发展。两相比较,出口贸易条件指数上升的速度要快于进口贸易条件指数下降的速度,就综合贸易条件而言,还是对中国有利的因素要多一些。     

20世纪二三十年代上海平民住房融资模式初探

20世纪二三十年代,上海市平民住房建设主要采取了银行信贷和向垄断企业借款的筹资方式,一定程度上遏止了草棚户继续泛滥的局面,取得了部分成效。但由于当时政府不可能从满足民生的基本居住需要出发,从根本上提高平民的生活质量,因此在财政投入十分有限的情况下,过度依赖商业融资,导致还贷压力沉重,致使平民住房租金定价偏高,对平民的基本生活产生了不利的影响。历史证明,在平民住房建设多种筹资模式的选择中,财政投入应该是主要渠道,这是政府确定合理房租,并保证平民生活水平提高的基本前提。     

All About the Giants: Probing the Influences on World Growth and Income Inequality at the End of the 20th Century

This paper presents estimates of world output growth from 1970to 2000, the distribution of income among countries and personsfor the years 1980, 1990 and 2000, and world income povertyrates for the same years. It also presents the results of aseries of simulation exercises that attempt to isolate the effectof particular country and regional experiences on world outputgrowth and changes in global income inequality and poverty. The authors find that rapid growth in China (despite a downwardadjustment of official growth estimates) had a powerful impacton the growth of world output in both the 1980s and 1990s, butthat negative economic growth in Eastern Europe more than offsetthat effect in the 1990s. With respect to the distribution ofworld income between countries, the impressive growth performancesof the worlds most populous countries, China and India, ensureddecreasing levels of inequality during both the 1980s and 1990s.When the distribution of world income between persons is measured,the equalizing effect of China's rapid growth remains dominantthrough both the 1980s and 1990s, despite the contradictoryimpact of increasing domestic inequality. Only India's influenceremained substantial by comparison. Other identifiable eventsof the period, such as the economic contraction in Eastern Europeand continued economic decline in Africa, had little statisticalimpact. However, when the combined influence of China and India'sabove-average growth rates is removed, or their size effectdampened, the improving global distribution of (inter-countryand inter-personal) income suggested by all statistical measuresbecomes one of sharply worsening inequality. The impact of thesetwo countries is similarly critical with respect to global povertyreduction. (JEL F0, I3, O4)     

20世纪中国货币思想史研究的总结--《中国货币思想史》读后

中国货币思想史的研究在20世纪取得许多重大成果,1986年和1987年,叶世昌教授的<中国货币理论史>(上册)和萧清教授的<中国古代货币思想史>出版.     

20世纪中国二元经济模式变迁与比较研究——基于三农视角

中国自20世纪初期形成了二元经济结构,之后存世长达百年之久,模式几经变迁,对中国经济与社会产生了深远影响.文章以20世纪以来二元经济模式发展的演变史实为基础,运用制度变迁理论,从三农视角对20世纪三种二元经济模式之成因、结构特征及其对经济与社会的影响进行比较分析.研究发现,三种二元经济结构均导致城乡分化、三农衰败的共同结局,但在具体路径选择及影响程度等方面又有不同,具体表现为:(1)20世纪初期形成的市场诱发型二元经济结构通过城乡不平等贸易、资金市场性流动等市场机制作用,导致社会阶层与城乡严重分裂、社会失控的局面;(2)20世纪五六十年代形成的制度约束型二元经济结构通过统购统销、户籍制度、人民公社制度等刚性制度约束,导致农业生产效率低下与农民收入的过度平均;(3)20世纪八九十年代形成的复合型二元经济结构则由于制度刚性约束与市场因素的共同作用,形成三农在城乡贸易、就业与社会保障等方面的劣势地位.文章有助于我们更深入地认识当前二元经济结构的复合性质及其内卷化发展特征,为如何依靠市场驱动和制度改革来破解当前二元经济的困局和全面深化农村改革提供启示.     

Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century

The paper estimates the correlation between tariffs and economic growth in the late 19th century, in the context of three types of growth equation: unconditional convergence equations; conditional convergence equations; and factor accumulation models. It does so for a panel of ten countries between 1875 and 1914. Tariffs were positively correlated with growth in these countries during this period.     

21世纪世界科技发展趋势及对策

阐述了21世纪世界科技发展的基本趋势与各国在高科技领域的竞争特点。从我国的国情出发,提出了在创新系统、创新人才培养、市场机制、法律保障、风险投资体系等几个方面应采取的基本对策。