Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation

Whereas empirical evidence on the effect of higher commodity prices on the long-run growth of commodity exporters is ambiguous, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise income in the short run. In this paper we adopt panel error correction methodology to analyze global data for 1963 to 2008 to disentangle the short and long run effects of international commodity prices on output per capita. Our results show that commodity booms have unconditional positive short-term effects on output, but non-agricultural booms in countries with poor governance have adverse long-term effects which dominate the short-run gains. Our findings have important implications for non-agricultural commodity exporters with poor governance, especially in light of the recent wave of resource discoveries in low-income countries.     

An empirical investigation of the relationship between education and growth in Pakistan

In this paper we try to examine the impact of education on growth in Pakistan for the time period of 1973–2001. Education, measured as gross enrollments and total expenditures, is broken down into primary, secondary and tertiary as well as by gender in each of the above categories. Time series techniques are used to determine whether education, for each category, has a causal impact on growth. The robustness of these results is then examined using the Levine–Renelt (1992) methodology. We find that secondary and higher education has a strong and robust impact on growth, whereas, at the primary level only initial female enrolments show a causal but not robust impact on growth.     

An empirical examination of long-run purchasing power parity using cointegration techniques

This paper presents an empirical analysis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for five major exchange rates using recently developed econometric techniques on the cointegration of economic time series. Our empirical results are extremely unfavourable to the PPP hypothesis as a long-run equilibrium condition, even with an allowance made for measurement error and/or tranportation costs. In particular, we are unable to reject the hypothesis of non-cointegration of the exchange rate and relative prices for any of the countries concerned. Far from finding a stable, long-run proportionality between exchange rates and relative prices, our results therefore suggest that they tend to drift apart without bound.     

An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China

This study investigates the causal relationship between openness and economic growth in China. The integration and cointegration properties of the data are analysed and the models of Granger, Sims, Geweke and Hsiao are used to identify a bi-directional causal relationship between GNP and exports plus imports. This bi-directional causation is consistent with China's development strategy of protected export promotion     

An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK

A general to specific methodology is used to construct UK demand for outbound tourism models to twelve destinations. A tourism destination preference index is introduced to take into account social, cultural and psychological influences on tourists' decisions concerning their overseas holiday destinations. The tests support the existence of a cointegration relationship for each of 11 UK overseas holiday destinations. The corresponding error correction models are estimated. The empirical results show that the long-run income elasticities for all destinations range from 1.70 to 3.90 with an average of 2.367. The lowest and highest short-run income elasticities are 1.05 and 3.78 respectively, with an average of 2.216. The estimates of the income elasticities imply that overseas holidays are highly income elastic while the own-price elasticities suggest that the demand for UK outbound tourism is relatively own-price inelastic. In terms of the significance of substitution prices in the regression equations, Ireland is the favourite substitute destination for UK outbound tourists. Ex post forecasts over a period of six years are generated from the ECM models and the results compared with those of a naive model, an AR(1) model, an ARMA(p,q) model, and a VAR model. The forecasting performance criteria show that the ECM model has the best overall forecasting performance for UK outbound tourism.     

Creditor concentration: An empirical investigation

Most of the literature on multiple banking assumes equal financing shares. However, unequal, asymmetric or concentrated bank borrowing is widespread, and creditor concentration is only weakly correlated with the number of bank relationships. This paper therefore investigates the determinants of creditor concentration for German firms using a comprehensive firm-bank level dataset for the time period between 1993 and 2003. We document that corporate borrowing from banks is very often concentrated, even for the largest firms in our sample. Leveraged firms and firms with more redeployable assets concentrate their borrowing from banks, as are firms dealing with a relationship lender that is profitable, that has lower monitoring costs, or that operates in a concentrated regional lending market.     

The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation

Since its appearance mobile telephony has shown a remarkably fast diffusion pattern in most advanced countries. This paper investigates technological and economic factors that have influenced the diffusion process of cellular phones, in particular the diffusion speed and the upper limit. The epidemic model widely used in diffusion studies is summarised and discussed highlighting the evolutionary disequilibrium nature of diffusion processes. Moreover, the econometric specification of some of the models distinguishes between long-run relationships and short-run adjustments to a continuously evolving pattern. We find that the new digital technology, which coincides with increased competition in both Italy and the UK, has made the process faster and increased the saturation level in Italy, but not in the UK; in Italy only the decreasing price of the handset has affected the diffusion process, whereas we find that, in addition to that, decreasing tariffs and increasing consumption expenditures have been significant in shaping the diffusion process of mobile telephony in the UK.     

An empirical examination of long-run purchasing power parity as theory of international commodity arbitrage

An empirical analysis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) as a theory of international commodity arbitrage between UK and US prices and the sterling/US dollar exchange rate for the period 1975–1980 is presented. Econometric techniques concerning the cointegration of economic time series are applied to a sample of 35 manufactured commodities which in 1977 constituted approximately a quarter of the net output of all manufacturing industry in Great Britain. Our results are extremely unfavourable to the PPP hypothesis as a stable long-run proportionality between exchange rates and disaggregated prices.     

An empirical investigation of monetary interaction in the Korean economy

This paper conducts an econometric investigation of monetary interaction in the Korean economy over the past two decades. The study pays close attention to a critical role played by broad money and an interest rate term spread in the economy. A vector autoregression reveals two cointegrating relationships, both of which are consistent with macroeconomic theory: the first relationship corresponds to a broad money demand function, while the second represents a monetary policy rule function. The cointegrated system is then reduced to a vector equilibrium correction system, which characterizes the interaction between money demand and monetary policy rule. It is also demonstrated that the preferred model is a reliable forecasting device, suggesting that the broad money contains information about the real economy in the future.     

An empirical investigation of labor income processes

In this paper, I reassess the evidence on labor income risk. There are two leading views on the nature of the income process in the current literature. The first view, which I call the “Restricted Income Profiles” (RIP) process, holds that individuals are subject to large and very persistent shocks, while facing similar life-cycle income profiles. The alternative view, which I call the “Heterogeneous Income Profiles” (HIP) process, holds that individuals are subject to income shocks with modest persistence, while facing individual-specific income profiles. I first show that ignoring profile heterogeneity, when in fact it is present, introduces an upward bias into the estimates of persistence. Second, I estimate a parsimonious parameterization of the HIP process that is suitable for calibrating economic models. The estimated persistence is about 0.8 in the HIP process compared to about 0.99 in the RIP process. Moreover, the heterogeneity in income profiles is estimated to be substantial, explaining between 56 to 75 percent of income inequality at age 55. I also find that profile heterogeneity is substantially larger among higher educated individuals. Third, I discuss the source of identification—in other words, the aspects of labor income data that allow one to distinguish between the HIP and RIP processes. Finally, I show that the main evidence against profile heterogeneity in the existing literature—that the autocorrelations of income changes are small and negative—is also replicated by the HIP process, suggesting that this evidence may have been misinterpreted.     

An empirical investigation of organizational memetic variation

The potential of a theory based on organizational memes in coevolution with the environment has been postulated, but remains empirically under-developed. This study explores whether understanding organizational memetic variation is empirically possible and, if so, whether it might, with further development, provide managers with early indications of a misalignment between organizational action (operationalized as memetic variation) and strategic intent—the amount of memetic variation needed to stay aligned with the competitive environment. A method for empirically identifying knowledge-based memes in everyday practice is developed. It stems from modern advances in genetics allowing micro-level changes in genes to be linked to macro-environmental dynamics. Using the concept that memetic variation is caused by everyday, uncontrollable uncertainties of interpretation, memetic variation is reduced to seven categorical types. A highly exploratory quasi-experimental design allows a preliminary comparison of a would-be innovative ‘Portfolio Management Committee’ with self-organizing Internet chat-room settings that are representational of open-source innovation. Results are consistent with predictions showing that higher levels of variation are seen in the latter, despite the former’s strategic intent of innovating to stay aligned with a dynamic environment. Further work is needed, however, to test reliability and validity.      

Mergers in the food retailing sector: An empirical investigation

We address the problem of merger evaluation, for competition policy purposes, in the retailing sector. The likely effects of a possible merger are analysed ex ante. The novelty of the paper lies in the inclusion of downstream and upstream market power effects on the retailers. Also, it provides an empirical application to the Portuguese food retailing market. The effects of additional concentration on prices are estimated, as well as the price reduction insiders are likely to obtain via an improved bargaining position. The final effect on prices depends on how these cost reductions are reflected in insiders’ prices, i.e., on the pass-through rate. For realistic values of this rate we find that the merger in question will most likely increase consumer prices and, therefore, should not be allowed on an antitrust legislation basis.     

An empirical investigation of pension funding levels in Canada

In the literature, three non-mutually exclusive approaches explain pension plan funding decisions: the traditional view (Friedman, 1983), the corporate view (Bodie et al., 1985) and the bonding view (Ippolito, 1985). An investigation of pension funding levels is presented here relying on an empirical model integrating these three different views. The results, based on data covering 115 relatively large Canadian firms in 1990, offer strong support for the bonding view.     

Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation

The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of terrorism in the context of Pakistan. The determinants of terrorism include various socio-economic variables like GDP per capita, unemployment, political rights, inflation, poverty, inequality and literacy level. A long-run relationship between the variables is analyzed by applying Johansen co-integration technique. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is applied to determine the stability of the long run relationship between terrorism and various variables and also to streamline the short-run and long run impacts of the variables on terrorism. In general, the results revealed that there exists a long run relationship between various social and economic variables and terrorism while the results of ECM revealed that about 89% convergence towards equilibrium takes place every year. Similarly, important results are obtained by short run and long run elasticities estimated under the Error Correction Model. Impulse response analysis reveals that the impacts of one standard deviation shock given to random disturbances on the systems of variables have mixed results. Some variables have increasing trend over the time period, some have decreasing trends, while some have fluctuating and cyclical trends.     

Aspiration level effects: An empirical investigation

Theories of aspiration level effects predict that decisions under uncertainty will depend on whether performance is above or below some target level of performance. A sample of 5000 quarterly earnings announcements by publicity held companies listed on the COMPUSTAT and CRSP data bases is examined to test this hypothesis. Four models from the current accounting literature are used as alternative estimates of the target level of earnings for these firms. When earnings are announced the difference between actual and forecast earnings, here called a forecast error, can be computed. The data indicate that the relationship between valuation and forecast error differs conditional on the sign of the forecast error.     

An empirical investigation of tourism-led growth hypothesis in the European countries: evidence from augmented mean group estimator

Portuguese Economic Journal - Due to urbanization and the need for people to go from one country to another either for commercial purpose or tourism, it is therefore important to determine the...     

An empirical investigation of lawn mower safety regulation

This paper tests for switching market conduct in an oligopsonistic industry. The model adopts Bresnahan's procedure for identifying the oligopoly solution and integrates the procedure with a switching regression model. Applied to the US beef slaughter industry, two distinct regimes of conduct in the industry were identified. The two regimes are consistent with the time periods during which the industry has undergone major structural change.