Wage Formation,Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness*

Empirical studies of regional wage formation and interregional migration routinely include the regional unemployment rate as indicator of local labour market tightness. However, these studies are usually motivated by economic theories that emphasize transition probabilities between unemployment and employment, and the unemployment rate is an imperfect proxy for these probabilities. We use a large micro data set to compute estimates of the rate of outflow from unemployment for 90 Norwegian travel‐to‐work areas. The outflow rates perform better than traditional measures of regional labour market tightness in panel data analyses of regional wages and interregional migration.     

An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve

This study develops an efficiency wage model that generates a wage curve at the regional level and a Phillips curve at the national level, under the assumption that workers' efficiency depends on both regional and aggregate labor market conditions. An equation relating wages to unemployment and lagged wages is derived from the profit-maximizing behavior of firms, and it is demonstrated that the coefficient on lagged wages is less than 1 with regional data but equals 1 with aggregate data. In addition, there is an equilibrium relationship between unemployment and wages at the regional level, but not at the aggregate level.     

How flexible are wages in EU accession countries?

The transition to a market economy and increased economic integration have fostered regional disparities in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This paper investigates whether and to what extent wages could act as an equilibrating mechanism in these countries by adjusting to local market conditions. Using regional data for the 1990s, we estimate static and dynamic wage curve models for Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania. We find empirical evidence indicating that regional average earnings adjusted to local unemployment rates in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland. This result suggests that in these countries wages could help equilibrate labour markets following demand shocks. In the case of Romania, the unemployment elasticity of pay was not significantly different from zero.     

Relative wage and unemployment changes in Poland: microeconometric evidence

We estimate changes in the Polish wage and unemployment structures between the years 1994 and 1998 in order to identify labour market characteristics associated with increasing and decreasing relative demand, as well as relative wage rigidities. The evidence shows that relative demand for workers with a low level of education decreased. Whereas relative wages for workers with basic vocational education also fell in this situation, relative wages of workers with only primary education did not, pointing to a relative wage rigidity for this group which faced an above-average unemployment risk throughout the observation period.     

Wage changes through job mobility in Europe: A multinomial endogenous switching approach

This paper presents evidence on the relationship between job mobility and wage mobility for various European countries using the European Community Household Panel (1994–2001). While much of the earlier research uses least-squares regression to predict wages for individuals with different labour market experience, we have found that it is important to take into account the possible non-random selection between job movers and stayers and between voluntary and involuntary movers. In this paper we focus on the effects of an unemployment spell on subsequent wages by estimating a multinomial endogenous switching model composed of two selection equations and three wage equations. Our results indicate that job mobility through unemployment has negative returns in all the analysed economies. As regards stayers, these losses range from 8% in Portugal to 21% in Germany while losses with respect to voluntary movers vary from 14% in Spain to 31% in Portugal.     

EU Labour Markets and Monetary Union

How can European labour markets cope with a single currency? The single currency success story is the US, which has maintained low unemployment rates both in the country as a whole and in individual regions. But Richard Jackman and Savvas Savouri argue this has been achieved by massive migration of workers from depressed to prosperous areas. In Europe migration within countries is quite low and between countries essentially non-existent. Thus in Europe, unlike in the US, the adjustment to national or regional labour market shocks will depend on wage flexibility. Unhappily wages in Europe are not very flexible, particularly in conditions of low inflation, and the single currency may make them even less so. The prospect for depressed areas is thus bleak.     

Public–private sector wage differentials and the business cycle

This paper uses microeconomic data for the period from 1990 to 2004 to examine the relationship between public–private sector wage differentials and labour market conditions in Finland. The results show that the public sector wage premium is strongly counter-cyclical. On average, a 10 percent increase in the local unemployment rate increases the public–private sector wage gap by one percent. Separate analyses by government sector and quantiles of the distribution of wages reveal that it is local government workers and those working at lower skill levels who benefit more from increasing unemployment rate. The paper also exploits the longitudinal structure of the data to examine whether the results are constant over time. These results indicate that the cyclical pattern primarily emerges in years with deteriorated labour markets.     

Monopsonistic competition for the “best” workers

In this paper we analyse an economy where firms use labour as the only production factor, with constant return to scale. We suppose that jobs differ in their non-wage characteristics so each firm has monopsonistic power. In particular, we suppose that workers are heterogeneous with respect to their productivity. Then, each firm has incentives to offer higher wages in order to recruit the most productive workers. Competition among firms leads to a symmetric equilibrium wage, which is higher than the reservation wage, and to involuntary unemployment for the less productive workers, who are willing to work at the current wage but are not hired because their productivity is lower than the wage level. If firms have no institutional constraint on paying lower wages for the same job, an endogenous labour market segmentation emerges.     

Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of an Equilibrium Search Model

We specify and estimate an equilibrium job search model with productivity differences across labour market segments. The model allows for two types of unemployment: frictional unemployment due to search frictions and structural unemployment due to wage floors. Wage floors exist because of high unemployment benefits or binding minimum wages. The productivity distribution is estimated semi-nonparametrically along the lines of Gallant-Nychka, using Hermite series approximation. We decompose the total unemployment rate and we examine the effects of changes in the minimum wage.     

Regional Efficiency Wages: Are They a Source of Real Earnings Differentials?

This paper investigates the role of spatial efficiency wage premiums as a partial explanation for both inter-industry and geographic wage differentials. The empirical approach is based on an analysis of panel data for six select manufacturing industries operating within specific (U.S.) states. Besides testing for the existence of a regional "wage curve," this research adds to the evidence on traditional determinants of spatial wage differentials. An explicit treatment of regional cost-of-living conditions is unique to the analysis; also, industry wage structures are accounted for in explaining regional wage differences. The findings here contribute to an initial body of evidence on regional efficiency wages. The empirical evidence indicates that the relationship between regional wages (nominal or real) and the local unemployment rate is much more complex than implied by the wage curve.     

Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance

Government wage, benefit, and employment decisions are not taken on a profit-maximizing basis, and have a substantial impact on aggregate labour market performance and unemployment. In a two-sector labour market model with free mobility of labour, an increase in government wages or benefits reduces private sector employment, and government employment is not an effective counter-cyclical instrument. Empirical tests for Greece confirm that the expansion of the public sector in the 1980s contributed to the deterioration of labour market performance.     

The Last Word on the Wage Curve?

Abstract.  Since 1990, there has been extensive international research on the responsiveness of wages of individuals to changing local labour market conditions. For many countries, an inverse relationship between wages and local unemployment rates has been found. In their book, The Wage Curve , Blanchflower and Oswald argued that the unemployment elasticity of pay is around −0.1 in most countries. In a 1995 literature survey, Card referred to this striking empirical regularity as being close to an 'empirical law of economics'. Nonetheless, reported elasticities do vary, even excluding outliers, between about −0.5 and +0.1. There is also considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies in terms of data and model specification. This paper carries out meta‐analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies. Several causes of variation are identified. There is also clear evidence of downward publication bias. In addition, many reported t ‐statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates. A maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases. Both methods give similar results for our sample. An unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity at the means of study characteristics is about −0.07.     

Does immigration increase labour market flexibility?

The question we investigate empirically in this article is whether immigration makes the labour supply in the receiving country more responsive to regional differences in economic opportunities. The main merit of the paper is that we examine three stages in the regional mobility of refugees and labour immigrants: First, the settlement pattern of newly arrived immigrants, second, their subsequent mobility between regions and, third, their eventual exit from the regional labour market to abroad. The analyses apply to immigrants who arrived in Norway from 1995 to 2004. In all three stages, mobility is investigated with regard to its responsiveness to regional differences in wages and unemployment. The main finding is that, in all three stages, the geographical mobility of immigrants is sensitive to regional economic opportunities. In that sense, immigrants do “grease the wheels” of the labour markets, through all the three stages of mobility. The most robust results are found for regional unemployment differences. With regard to natives, we generally do not find any strong evidence for “greasing the wheels” effects.     

How low can U go?

• ? Although there is growing evidence that wage growth is building in response to low and falling unemployment in the advanced economies, there is scope for unemployment rates to fall further without triggering a pay surge.
• ? For a start, current unemployment rates in comparison to past cyclical troughs overstate the tightness of labour markets. Demographic trends associated with the ageing ‘baby boomer’ bulge have pushed down the headline unemployment rate – unemployment rates among older workers are lower than those of younger cohorts. And in a historical context, Europe still has a large pool of involuntary part‐timers.
• ? In addition, rising participation rates mean that demographics are less of a constraint on employment growth than widely assumed. In both 2017 and 2018, had it not been for increased activity rates (mainly for older cohorts), unemployment would have had to fall more sharply to accommodate the same employment increase. We expect rising participation rates to continue to act as a pressure valve for the labour market.
• ? Finally, unemployment rates were generally far lower during the 1950s and 1960s than now. If wages stay low relative to productivity, as was the case during that prior era, employment growth may remain strong, with unemployment falling further. In the post‐war era, low wages were partly a function of a grand bargain in which policy‐makers provided full employment in return for low wage growth.
• ? There is evidence to suggest that many post‐crisis workers have opted for the security of their existing full‐time job and its associated benefits despite lower wage growth, rather than change job and potentially earn more; the rise of the ‘gig economy’ has led some workers to value what they already have more. Put another way, the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) has fallen. So, the role of labour market tightness in pushing wage growth higher may continue to surprise to the downside.

     

The effect of minimum wage hikes on employment: Evidence from regional panel data from Romania

Minimum wage hikes aim to increase the income of low-wage workers and improve their labour market participation. However, there are concerns that large increases may reduce employment, especially in countries where minimum wages increased quickly and whose competitiveness depends, at least partly, on low production costs. This study examines the employment effect of large increases in the minimum wage in Romania between 2008 and 2016. It uses regional (NUTS III) data and dynamic panel methods. The results do not support the hypothesis that minimum wage hikes reduce employment. They are robust to the use of different econometric methods, plausible variations of the specification and definitions of the key variables. Moreover, the results suggest insignificant effects even for low wage, less developed or high unemployment regions.     

The Effects of UI Benefits on Unemployment and Subsequent Outcomes: Evidence from a Kinked Benefit Rule

This paper analyses the effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment exits and subsequent labour market outcomes. We exploit a piecewise linear relationship between the previous wage and benefits in Finland to identify the causal effects of the benefit level by using a regression kink design. Although we only find weak evidence of an effect on the time to the next job, higher benefits decrease the time spent in part-time unemployment and thus result in more full-time unemployment. The re-employment probability and post-unemployment wage are also negatively affected. The results for the duration of the first post-unemployment job are not conclusive, but in total both employment and earnings in the two years following the beginning of the unemployment spell decrease with higher benefits.     

Informality in developing economies: Regulation and fiscal policies

This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework where formal and informal firms coexist and face the same type of product and labor market imperfections: they have monopoly power in the goods market, they are subject to matching frictions in the labor market, and wages are determined by bargaining between large firms and their workers, through either individual or collective bargaining. Our model matches the main stylized facts on informality for developing countries and appears to be a good candidate for policy analysis. In this framework, we study the impact on informality, wages and unemployment of policies that may be used to reduce informality. We consider changes in product market regulation (PMR) and in two types of fiscal policies, labor taxes and formality enforcement. We find that lessening PMR decreases informality and unemployment simultaneously, indicating that there is not necessarily a tradeoff between informality and unemployment. The tradeoff appears when fiscal policies are used, though. Moreover, the impacts of PMR on unemployment and on wages are larger under collective than individual bargaining. With respect to wage inequality, lessening PMR reduces it, while lower taxes tend to increase the formal sector wage premium.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL WAGE CURVES IN JAPAN 1981–2001

There is evidence in many countries of an inverse relationship between the real wages paid to workers and the unemployment rate in their local labor market, a so-called wage curve. However, the evidence to date for Japan has been rather limited. In this paper, we estimate wage curves for Japan using pooled cross-section time-series data from 1981 until 2001. The presence of a wage curve is confirmed. The wage curve has become slightly more elastic after the bubble economy of the 1980s than it was in the pre-bubble and mid-bubble period. The unemployment elasticity of pay is greater for males than for females. We also estimate regional wage curves using time-series data. The male wage curve elasticity is larger in the northern regions of Hokkaido and Tohoku and the western region of Shikoku, while it is smaller in the central regions of Hokuriku, Tokai and Kinki.     

The effect of international firm mobility on wages and unemployment

Although the increase in international firm mobility is well documented, its effects on macroeconomic aggregates and the labour market remain controversial. Multinational enterprises (MNEs) benefit from an international outside option during wage bargaining, leading to a decrease in average wages. However, a strategic incentive to hire extra workers in a foreign (home) plant in order to reduce wages in the home (foreign) plant has an indirect positive effect on wages due to spillovers resulting from an increased demand for labour. In a framework of frictional unemployment, permitting MNEs leads to a decrease in unemployment. Abstracting from transport and plant fixed costs, MNEs lead to higher wages. Including transport and plant costs generally leads to lower wages, though the effects are small. The strategic hiring effect is important in mitigating the fall in wages.     

The measurement of unemployment when unemployment is high

Are jobless persons who want work but are not actively searching, unemployed or out of the labour force? Previous research on this issue has focused on North America and used as the test whether the probability of transition to employment is similar for searching and non-searching jobless persons. This paper develops three new tests as to whether those not searching but wanting work are distinct from the searching unemployed. It asks: are non-searching persons richer, happier, and do they have a lesser impact on local wages, than the searchers? These tests are implemented using data from South Africa, a country in which unemployment is very high and where the treatment of non-searchers really matters for the understanding of poverty and labour market issues. The results favour the ‘discouraged worker’ view of the non-searching unemployed and the use of the broad, inclusive, measure of unemployment.