Valuation Accuracy and Infinity Horizon Forecast: Empirical Evidence from Europe

This paper focuses on the assumptions of infinite-horizon forecasting in the field of firm valuation. The estimate of long-run continuing values is based on the hypothesis that companies should have reached the steady state at the end of the period of explicit forecasts. It is argued that the equivalence between cash accounting and accrual accounting is the way of verifying the steady-state assumption, defined as the state when a firm earns exactly its cost of capital, i.e., what we would expect in pure-competition settings. From this definition, we derive that the "ideal" growth rate to use in steady state is equal to the reinvestment rate times Weighted Average Cost of Capital. To validate our approach, we collect a sample of 784 analyst valuations and compare how the implied target prices deviate from what the target prices would have been using the "ideal" steady-state growth rates. Using Logit and Cox regression models, we find that this deviation has predictive value over the probability that actual market price reaches the target price over the following 12-month period—the smaller the deviation the greater is the likelihood that the market price reaches the target price.     

Earnings Management Vehicles for Korean Firms

We investigated the vehicles that Korean firms use when the firms manage earnings. We partitioned our sample into low, mid and high accrual sub‐samples based on discretionary accruals. Low accrual firms are defined as income‐decreasing firms whereas the high accrual firms are considered income increasing firms in this study. We decomposed accounting earnings into cash from operations and various components of accruals in a systematic way. Next we examined the types of accruals individual firms use when the respective firms increase reported earnings. The empirical results of the study indicate that there are clear discrepancies in the earnings management vehicles firm use when the firms manage earnings depending on the directions of earnings management. More specifically, income‐increasing firms frequently employ non‐cash revenues including asset‐disposal gains. Income‐decreasing firms employ non‐cash expenses including bad‐debt expenses and asset‐disposal losses. Firms also tend to use current accruals but to a limited extent as current accruals entail cash flow implications in the following years.     

会计谜团:“利润至上”还是“现金至尊”?

由于确认与计量基础的差别,利润与现金既存在一致性,又存在着差异性。会计利润是基于应计制的账面数据;现金流量表现为企业实实在在的现金流入与流出,是一个具有多层次的概念体系,并成为企业估值、决策与管理的"至尊变量";而以应计制为基础的剩余收益,比现金流量更能确认价值的增加,并提供了一种分析企业和企业价值生成的方法。     

自由现金流量预测模型研究——基于汽车制造业的面板数据分析

本文构建了适用于企业价值估计的自由现金流量预测模型。模型根据自由现金流量的财务本质,通过将自由现金流量分解成各相应的应计项目,利用并设计相互之间的运算关系,运用计量经济学方法,对下一期的自由现金流量进行预测,并用汽车制造业上市公司的面板数据(1996年至2006年)对该预测模型进行了检验。结果表明模型本身以及解释变量都具有很高的显著性,证明了在销货成本、销售费用、管理费用与销售收入之比保持相对稳定等给定条件下,该模型具有很好的预测能力。     

The Accuracy of Price-Earnings and Discounted Cash Flow Methods of IPO Equity Valuation

This paper compares estimates of value derived from conventional discounted cash flow and price earnings valuation methods to the market price. For a sample of 45 firms newly listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange our results suggest that the best discounted cash flow method and the best price earnings comparable have similar accuracy. The median absolute pricing error is around 20% and the models explain around 70% of the cross-sectional variation in market price scaled by book value. The results serve to corroborate the findings of Kaplan and Ruback (1995).     

The pricing accuracy of alternative equity valuation models: Scandinavian evidence

In many decision contexts, there is a need for benchmark equity valuations, based on simplified modeling and publicly available information. Prior research on U.S. data however shows that the accuracy of such valuation models can be low and sensitive to the choice of model specifications and value driver predictions. In this paper, we test the applicability and pricing accuracy of three fundamental valuation (dividend discount, residual income, and abnormal earnings growth) models, all based on forecasts of company dividends, earnings, and/or equity book values. Extending prior research, we apply these models to Scandinavian firms with accounting data from the period 2005–2014, explicitly testing two approaches for the prediction of the value drivers—exogenously forecasted numbers versus projected historical numbers. Given access to the forecasted value drivers, the dividend discount model comes out as the most accurate valuation model. In particular, this holds in a comparison between the most parsimonious model specifications. The residual income valuation model generates the best pricing accuracy given the prediction of value drivers based on historical financial numbers. Notably, we observe pricing errors that in general are lower than what has been reported in prior U.S.‐based research for the dividend discount and the residual income valuation models. The pricing accuracy of the abnormal earnings growth models is surprisingly weak in the Scandinavian setting. However, these models improve somewhat after a couple of complexity adjustments, in particular with value driver predictions based on the projected history setting.     

存货会计政策与成本流动假设的经济学分析

存货是大多数企业的重要流动资产,基于不同的成本流转假设理论,存货计价方法一般可划分为具体辨认法、平均成本法、先进先出法、基本存货法、后进先出法等。存货会计政策选择具有广泛的经济后果,影响企业的财务状况、收益质量、税收成本、现金流量、经营者业绩与其报酬、公司股票价格及报表使用者理解会计信息等。本文认为,各种存货计价政策对企业净利润产生的差异均属于“时间性差异“,在若干个会计期间内,企业无论选择何种会计政策,产生的净利润和经营性现金流量都应该是相等的,企业之所以进行会计政策选择是为了取得上述会计数据不同时间分布带来的各种可能的经济利益。     

关于企业重组中价值评估的探讨

文章针对我国企业重组中存在的忽视价值评估科学性问题进行了深入探讨。文章指出,在单项资产价值评估与企业整体价值评估的选择上应以整体价值评估为主;在整体价值评估中是以现金流量为基础的评估和以会计收益为基础的评估选择上应以现金流量折现为基础的评估为主,最后特别对以现金流量为基础的价值评估方法应用中的难点问题进行了剖析。     

After the "Bubble": Valuation of Telecommunications Companies by Financial Analysts

In this article, we present the results of a series of interviews given by financial analysts specializing in the European telecommunications industry. Our objective is to gain an insight into their approaches to analysis and valuation (information sources, valuation methods, determinants of recommendations, etc.). We also consider whether analysts' approaches have changed since the “high‐tech bubble”. We find that today they rely much more on the discounted cash flow analysis method than at the end of the 1990s, when valuation was largely based on multiples. In line with this, analysts have changed their focus from revenue‐oriented measures towards an assessment of profitability and cash flow generation. Further, analysts claim to have become more diligent and more critical in their analysis.     

净现值计算方法的差异及其消除

现金流量可以分为资本成本、资本回收额与剩余收益三部分,因此当折现时不同的现金流量应与不同的相关折现率相匹配。Damodaran提出的匹配原则使得两种计算净现值的方法得出不同的结果,而通过对匹配原则进行修正则可以解决这一问题。     

Residual Income Valuation Models and Inflation

Existing empirical evidence suggests that residual income valuation models based on historical cost accounting considerably underestimate equity values. One possible explanation is the use of historical cost accounting under inflationary conditions. In this paper, we use a residual income framework to explore theoretically how historical cost accounting numbers need to be adjusted for inflation in forecasting and valuation. We demonstrate that even in a simple setting where inflation is running at a relatively low level, residual income models are likely to produce severe under-valuations if inflation is not properly taken into account. We use simulated data to reinforce our theoretical findings and to illustrate the difficulties that empirical investigators face working within the confines imposed by real data.     

Considering interrelationships in strategic decisions

Accounting-based valuation studies of US firms tend to support Ohlson's proposition that residual income and book value numbers have information content in explaining observed market values. But European evidence also suggests that the conservative/liberal orientation of accounting tradition can produce significant national differences in associations between accounting performance measures and stock prices - in earnings behaviour, coefficient values and parameter sensitivity. We address these issues from an equity valuation perspective using Swedish data to assess the additional information content of Ohlson's information dynamics and analysts' forecasts in relation to market valuations in a more conservative accounting environment than the US. The study compares the explanatory and predictive power of Ohlson's (1995) residual income model (RIV) with a linear information dynamics version (LIM) that specifies both residual income and non-accounting information as autoregressive processes. Both versions are applied with, and without, future performance expectations from non-accounting sources (analysts' forecasts). As with US evidence, we find that the inclusion of analysts' forecasts improves both (i) cross-sectional correlations with current prices for both RIV and LIM models and (ii) the predictive power of RIV models in relation to future annual cross-sectional stock returns. The contribution of linear information dynamics is significant but varies across approaches. We also find significant differences between Swedish and US firms in earnings behaviour and associations between accounting numbers and market equity prices.     

浅析现金流量表的结构及功能

在日益崇尚"现金至尊"的现代理财环境下,投资者的现金流量意识大大提高,在权责发生制基础上编制的资产负债表和损益表所存在的现金流量信息不足的缺陷逐渐显现出来,人们越来越意识到现金流量表的重要性。文中简要阐述了如何利用现金流量表分析企业财务状况。     

关于会计要素几个问题的思考

本文注意到会计要素的重要性及其在不同国家财务会计概念框架中的差异性,首先探讨了会计要素设置的决定因素,并分析了与此相关的一个典型问题——为什么现金流量表不设置会计要素。此外,本文还对收入与利得的区分及其经济后果进行了探讨,并分析了资产计价先于收益决定的逻辑基础。最后,本文还对资产的定义进行了综评。     

盈余管理动机和现金流量操纵动机的融合与分离

盈余管理动机与现金流量操控动机主要有资本市场动机、契约动机、监管动机和其他动机.在应计制基础会计与现金制基础会计融合的大背景下,盈余管理动机与现金流量操控动机也出现了一定程度的融合.由于我国上市公司具有特殊性、盈余信息与现金流量信息编制的基础不同,盈余管理动机和现金流量操控动机的融合并不是很彻底.     

News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium

We study equity price volatility in general equilibrium with news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. As West (1988) shows, in a partial equilibrium present discounted value model, news about the future cash flow reduces asset price volatility. We show that introducing news shocks in a canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model may not reduce asset price volatility under plausible parameter assumptions. This is because, in general equilibrium, the asset cash flow itself may be affected by the introduction of news shocks. In addition, we show that neglecting to account for policy news shocks (e.g., policy announcements) can potentially bias empirical estimates of the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices.     

The measurement of the economic performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business Sector 1946–1990: an application of the shareholder value creation concept

This paper is based upon a juxtaposition of the cash flow-market value performance (alias SVC performance) and historic cost accounting (HC) performance of the US Nonfinancial Corporate Business sector 1946–90. It has two principal objectives: 1. To determine whether, judged on return and variability dimensions, the HC accounting model is an operationally acceptable surrogate for a multiperiod market-based accounting model. 2. To analyse the consequences of HC income-based distributions, i.e., corporate tax, interest and dividend payments based on conventionally-measured corporate income. Three principal conclusions are drawn: i. Notwithstanding their common cash flow component, HC performance indices are not reliable surrogates for SVC performance criteria. The former apparently do not accurately capture changes in corporate valuation and generally understate the variability of market-based returns. ii. The multiperiod HC income of a going concern characteristically overstates its coterminous multiperiod cash flows to a considerable degree. Contrary to common supposition, the former does not therefore constitute a ‘normalized’ or ‘smoothed’ version of a firm's ‘primitive’ cash flows in the sense that the cumulative (multiperiod) values of the two measures tend to converge. iii. As a consequence of ii, HC income and its near relation, taxable earnings, are dubious bases for measuring interest-paying, tax-paying and dividend-paying capacities. Corporate income-distribution decisions based on HC accruals-based profit measures frequently trigger external financing which may cause shareholder wealth losses and wealth transfers from shareholders to lenders. However, ‘fiscal drag’ appears to be the most serious consequence of HC accruals-based income distribution decisions.     

The Stewardship Role of Analyst Forecasts,and Discretionary Versus Non-discretionary Accruals

We examine the interaction between discretionary and non-discretionary accruals in a stewardship setting. Contracting includes multiple rounds of renegotiation based on contractible accounting information and non-contractible but more timely non-accounting information. We show that accounting regulation aimed at increasing earnings quality from a valuation perspective (earnings persistence) may have a significant impact on how firms rationally respond in terms of allowing accrual discretion in order to alleviate the impact on the stewardship role of earnings. Increasing the precision of more timely non-accounting information (analyst earnings forecasts) increases the ex ante value of the firm and reduces costly earnings management. There is an optimal level of reversible non-discretionary accrual noise introduced through revenue recognition policies. Tight rules-based accounting regulation, as opposed to leaving firms more choice over non-discretionary accrual policies, may lead firms to rationally respond by inducing costly earnings management. More generally, regulating both earnings persistence and the tightness of admissible auditing policies may not result in less equilibrium earnings management.     

基于价值创造的公司经营价值评估方法

公司经营价值评估方法主要有经济增加值法和自由现金流量折现法。经济增加值法能够从逻辑上说明公司经营价值的源泉,自由现金流量折现法能够较好地说明公司经营价值的本质。而基于价值创造基础的公司经营价值的评估方法综合上述两种方法的优点,不仅有利于理解价值的本质,更有利于理解价值的源泉,因此能够更好地帮助投资者实现价值管理和价值投资的目标。     

Value-Driving Activities in Euro-Zone Banks

We develop and test accounting-based valuation models for commercial banks. We extend Begley et al.'s framework (2006) and propose a valuation model where goodwill is generated by virtually all commercial and investment banking activities. Key features of our model are: the development of a relation between future cash flows from fee income and the bank value that depends on lending, borrowing and off-balance sheet business; and the inclusion of proprietary investment and trading as value-driving activities. Empirical tests on a sample of Euro-zone banks from 1998 to 2006 provide the following evidence. Unrealised expected cash flows from fee income are the most important source of unrecorded goodwill. This is consistent with the increasing importance of revenue from the sale of financial services to banks' income. The contribution of fee income to goodwill is higher for banks with large deposits and new loans. Equity securities are a source of unrecorded goodwill, but the introduction of fair value accounting, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), reduces their valuation role. Yet equity securities remain positively associated with unrecorded goodwill after IFRS adoption, suggesting that the fair value standards do not fully capture market expectations about future cash flows of investment assets.