Forecasting extreme financial risk: A score-driven approach

This paper develops a new class of dynamic models for forecasting extreme financial risk. This class of models is driven by the score of the conditional distribution with respect to both the duration between extreme events and the magnitude of these events. It is shown that the models are a feasible method for modeling the time-varying arrival intensity and magnitude of extreme events. It is also demonstrated how exogenous variables such as realized measures of volatility can easily be incorporated. An empirical analysis based on a set of major equity indices shows that both the arrival intensity and the size of extreme events vary greatly during times of market turmoil. The proposed framework performs well relative to competing approaches in forecasting extreme tail risk measures.     

持有至到期投资摊余成本内涵分析

《企业会计准则第22号——金融工具确认和计量》应用指南中，提出了摊余成本的概念，并规范了摊余成本的计算方法。实务中很多人对此规范的理解有偏差，从而造成错误的会计处理。对此，笔者通过自己的实践，总结出了一套简单理解摊余成本概念以及计算实际利息收入的方法。     

The impact of operating and financial risk on equity risk

This paper empirically investigates a complete theoretical model relating the operating characteristics of a firm to the total, systematic, and unsystematic risk of its equity. The degree of operating leverage, the ratio of net profits to firm value, and the variability of unit output are all found to be positively correlated with each of the three risk measures. The degree of financial leverage, while positively related to total and unsystematic risk, does not appear to be related to systematic risk. After controlling for the business risk of the firm, no evidence can be found of an interaction between the degree of operating leverage and the degree of financial leverage.     

Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks, enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel, over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that the liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.     

The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy

This study exploits a new dataset to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. This dataset contains—for the first time for Italy—information on seniority. The effects of marginal incentives and social security wealth (SSW) on retirement go in the expected direction; when employees become eligible for pension benefits, the change in financial incentives they experience is so great that their retirement probability increases by 30 percentage points.We also find that the procedure used in previous Italian studies to impute seniority leads to a considerable overestimation of that variable and of SSW. We show that, due to these measurement errors, the estimate of the SSW coefficient takes the wrong sign. A comparison of retirement studies across countries (see Gruber and Wise [Gruber, J., and Wise, D., (2004). Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro-Estimation, NBER. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London.]) provides prima facie evidence that a lack of good quality data often leads to wrongly signed estimates of the SSW coefficient.     

Predicting failure risk using financial ratios: Quantile hazard model approach

This study examines the role of financial ratios in predicting companies’ default risk using the quantile hazard model (QHM) approach and compares its results to the discrete hazard model (DHM). We adopt the LASSO method to select essential predictors among the variables mentioned in the literature. We show the preeminence of our proposed QHM through the fact that it presents a different degree of financial ratios’ effect over various quantile levels. While DHM only confirms the aftermaths of “stock return volatilities” and “total liabilities” and the positive effects of “stock price”, “stock excess return”, and “profitability” on businesses, under high quantile levels QHM is able to supplement “cash and short-term investment to total assets”, “market capitalization”, and “current liabilities ratio” into the list of factors that influence a default. More interestingly, “cash and short-term investment to total assets” and “market capitalization” switch signs in high quantile levels, showing their different influence on companies with different risk levels. We also discover evidence for the distinction of default probability among different industrial sectors. Lastly, our proposed QHM empirically demonstrates improved out-of-sample forecasting performance.     

A different perspective on operating leverage: Comments

A recent article in this journal by Dran (1991) suggests that the usual treatment of degree of operating leverage (DOL) is misleading because it improperly attributes the DOL to the ratio of fixed to total costs rather than the closeness of the firm’s output to breakeven. Managerial economics texts are clear in identification of DOL as an elasticity concept which varies with the nearness to break-even. Examples associating DOL with the relative level of fixed cost arise from association of higher fixed costs with higher breakeven points, and this appears to be the normal economic relationship.     

Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach

We perform an analysis of systemic risk in financial and energy sectors in Europe using daily time series of CDS spreads. We employ the factor copula model with GAS dynamics from Oh and Patton (2018) for the purpose of estimating dependency structures between market participants. Based on the estimated models, we perform Monte Carlo simulations to obtain future values of CDS spreads, and then measure the probability of systemic events at given time points. We conclude that substantially higher systemic risk is present in the financial sector compared to the energy sector. We also find that the most systemically vulnerable financial and energy companies come from Spain.     

Forecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance: An intervention time-series approach

Forecasting the effects of changes in advertising or pricing strategies on a company's sales or market share is an important task faced by marketing managers. This paper applies a time series approach, intervention analysis, to several marketing policy applications illustrating the flexibility and value of the method for testing hypotheses and providing forecasts. Empirical evidence is presented for two different marketing situations, one that involves a change in advertising and another that involves offering price specials.     

Statistics of extreme events in risk management: The impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market

Given the growing need for managing financial risk and the recent global crisis, risk prediction is a crucial issue in banking and finance. In this paper, we show how recent advances in the statistical analysis of extreme events can provide solid methodological fundamentals for modeling extreme events. Our approach uses self-exciting marked point processes for estimating the tail of loss distributions. The main result is that the time between extreme events plays an important role in the statistical analysis of these events and could therefore be useful to forecast the size and intensity of future extreme events in financial markets. We illustrate this point by measuring the impact of the subprime and global financial crisis on the German stock market in extenso, and briefly as a benchmark in the US stock market. With the help of our fitted models, we backtest the Value at Risk at various quantiles to assess the likeliness of different extreme movements on the DAX, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock market indices during the crisis. The results show that the proposed models provide accurate risk measures according to the Basel Committee and make better use of the available information.     

HR flexibility: Precursors and the contingent impact on firm financial performance

Using data from 170 for‐profit U.S. firms with 100 or more employees from 27 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industry subsectors, we investigated firm‐level precursors of HR flexibility and industry‐level boundary conditions of the HR flexibility—firm financial performance relationship. The findings denote that a contingency illumination is warranted in which consideration should be given to firm‐level factors such as flexibility business strategy and high‐performance work systems, which may play a key role in engendering HR flexibility, and external factors such as industry dynamism and growth, which may serve as boundary conditions that influence the relevance and impact of HR flexibility. This study is an important extension of extant HR flexibility research and adds clarity regarding the roles and relevance of HR flexibility and the circumstances in which HR flexibility and/or its focal factors may augment (or diminish) firm competitiveness and performance.     

直击金融危机对全球航运的冲击

国际干散货市场恐慌性暴跌10月份以来,由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机对国际干散货市场形成了恐慌性杀跌行情打击。其实,受次贷危机影响,国际干散货市场从6月份开始已进入下跌通道,全球金融危机的爆发彻底摧毁了国际干散货市场参与者的信心,     

The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach

Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.     

The impact of digital finance on financial efficiency

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of digital finance on financial efficiency. The results show that digital finance has slightly improved the efficiency of the financial sector, but there are significant differences in the impact of provincial efficiency in China. Although financial sector efficiency positively correlates with digital financial efficiency, digital finance gives backward regions disadvantages. The efficiency score and ranking of the financial sector in the eastern region are significantly higher than noneastern region. The progressive effect of digital finance on the efficiency of the financial sector in the eastern region is better than that in the noneastern region.     

The impact of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act on the financial services industry

This paper examines the impact of Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act across three main sectors of the financial services industry: commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms, taking account of the wealth effect associated with the announcement. We find that the law has a differential impact across the financial services industry. All three industries have gained due to this law with commercial banks benefiting most, followed by the insurance industry. Further, the results show that larger firms benefited more in both the banking and insurance industries and exposure to systematic risk was reduced for all sectors of the financial services industry after this regulation passed.     

New evidence on the efficiency of Italian airports: A bootstrapped DEA analysis

A bootstrapped DEA procedure is used to estimate technical efficiency of 18 Italian airports during the period 2000-2004. Departing from previous studies, we separate the efficiency related to ability to manage airside activities (operational) from that related to the management of all business activities (financial). In general, Italian airports operate at poor levels of efficiency, with slightly better performance in terms of their financial activities. In the current study, selected intrinsic and environmental characteristics are considered as possible drivers of Italian airport performance. In particular, we found that: (i) the airport dimension does not allows for operational efficiency advantages, (ii) on the other hand, the airport dimension allows for financial efficiency advantages for the case of hubs and disadvantages for the case of the smallest airports (iii) the type(s) of concession agreement(s) might be considered as important source of technical efficiency differentials for those airports running marginal commercial activities; (iv) the introduction of a dual-till price cap regulation might create incentives which lead to the increase of financial efficiency at the detriment of the operational performance. Lastly, the development of a second hub (Milano Malpensa), has negatively affected the performance of the country’s national hub (Roma Fiumicino).     

Forecasting Bitcoin risk measures: A robust approach

Over the last few years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted the interest of many investors, practitioners and researchers. However, little attention has been paid to the predictability of their risk measures. This paper compares the predictability of the one-step-ahead volatility and Value-at-Risk of Bitcoin using several volatility models. We also include procedures that take into account the presence of outliers and estimate the volatility and Value-at-Risk in a robust fashion. Our results show that robust procedures outperform non-robust ones when forecasting the volatility and estimating the Value-at-Risk. These results suggest that the presence of outliers plays an important role in the modelling and forecasting of Bitcoin risk measures.     

Contagion between real estate and financial markets: A Bayesian quantile-on-quantile approach

We study contagion between Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and the equity market in the U.S. over four sub-samples covering January, 2003 to December, 2017, by using Bayesian nonparametric quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regressions with heteroskedasticity. We find that the spillovers from the REITs on to the equity market has varied over time and quantiles defining the states of these two markets across the four sub-samples, thus providing evidence of shift-contagion. Further, contagion from REITs upon the stock market went up during the global financial crisis particularly, and also over the period corresponding to the European sovereign debt crisis, relative to the pre-crisis period. Our main findings are robust to alternative model specifications of the benchmark Bayesian QQ model, especially when we control for omitted variable bias using the heteroskedastic error structure. Our results have important implications for various agents in the economy namely, academics, investors and policymakers.     

Dynamics of financial returns densities: A functional approach applied to the Bovespa intraday index

We model the stochastic evolution of the probability density functions (PDFs) of Ibovespa intraday returns over business days, in a functional time series framework. We find evidence that the dynamic structure of the PDFs reduces to a vector process lying in a two-dimensional space. Our main contributions are as follows. First, we provide further insights into the finite-dimensional decomposition of the curve process: it is shown that its evolution can be interpreted as a dynamic dispersion-symmetry shift. Second, we provide an application to realized volatility forecasting, with a forecasting ability that is comparable to those of HAR realized volatility models in the model confidence set framework.     

Credit allocation and the financial crisis: evidence from Spanish companies

The worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008 raised serious concerns about the soundness of banks’ activities and about the extent to which banking regulation should supervise banks’ investment decisions. We contribute to this topic by examining the Spanish case, which has been emblematic of the bubble and burst dynamics in the credit market. In particular, we study the allocation of bank credit among Spanish companies from 1999 to 2014, showing that larger companies accumulated greater amounts of bank loans per unit of total assets, thus leading to a notable concentration. We also find that, during the Spanish boom period, bank loans shifted from the manufacturing to the construction industry, and in particular to the largest companies of the latter sector. This happened in spite of the high leverage of large construction firms, which was increasing also due to their growing debt. We argue that the higher operating benefits, reflecting the increase of the housing price during the boom period, overvalued construction firms as potential borrowers. The bankruptcy of several large construction companies during the Spanish crisis supports the need for monitoring and regulation, to avoid an excessive concentration of bank credit to a few large companies, especially if they belong to a specific sector.