An econometric model of a retail firm

Existing models of retail resource allocation generally specify response functions in a somewhat ad hoc manner. These are not usually derived from an explicit model of consumer maximization, and they generally do not explicitly consider the supply side of the market. This paper shows how the model of Ehrlich and Fisher (1982) can be used to provide insights into the proper specification of these functions. We illustrate the application of this model on data from a retail chain; our application extends work in Ratchford and Stoops (1988) to the demand side of the market. Potential areas of application of the model are to understanding the demand for labor and advertising services by consumers, and to the measurement of retail productivity.     

An econometric model of new-car demand in the UK

An econometric model which explains the demand for new cars is specified and estimated, and good empirical results are obtained which imply that the model should provide reliable forecasts of new-car demand. Furthermore, these forecasts are likely to be greatly superior to those generated by simple naive models.     

Keeping off the grass? An econometric model of cannabis consumption in Britain

This paper presents estimates of a dynamic individual‐level model of cannabis consumption, using data from a 1998 survey of young people in Britain. The econometric model is a split‐population generalization of the non‐stationary Poisson process, allowing for separate dynamic process for initiation into cannabis use and subsequent consumption. The model allows for heterogeneity in consumption levels and behavioural shifts induced by leaving education and the parental home. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An econometric model of internal migration and development: extensions and tests

The author extends a previous work on migration in Italy "from 1958-1976 to 1958-1981, tests for the stability of the model and its coefficients, and uses the model for policy simulations and forecasting. The model performs as well over the extended sample period as over the original period and, even more important..., the model is found to be quite stable. This is remarkable in view of the economic turmoil that characterized the years by which the original sample period was extended."     

The econometric forecasting model of Czechoslovakia

Conclusion The result of the construction, estimation, testing and forecasting uses of the VVS-2 model testify to the expediency of using comprehensive econometric models in socialist economy. The VVS-2 model expresses at a satisfying rate of accuracy the quantitative relations between the fundamental indicators of Czechoslovak economy and has produced satisfactory results also in calculating short-term forecasts. Some new methods and computer programs that have been developed and employed for model estimation may be considered a contribution towards the development of applied econometrics in socialist countries.At the Computing Research Centre, United Nations D.P. in Bratislava, research work has continued on the development and improvement of further comprehensive econometric models. Within this framework the VVS-2 model will be permanently reestimated and possibly also extended and re-specificated according to the practical needs of macroeconomic analysis and planning.Authors are indebted to Professor Anton Klas, director of the Computing Research Centre, United Nations D.P., for creating very favourable conditions for the research work.     

An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns

This paper considers a variety of econometric models for the joint distribution of US stock and bond returns in the presence of regime switching dynamics. While simple two‐ or three‐state models capture the univariate dynamics in bond and stock returns, a more complicated four‐state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states is required to capture their joint distribution. The transition probability matrix of this model has a very particular form. Exits from the crash state are almost always to the recovery state and occur with close to 50% chance, suggesting a bounce‐back effect from the crash to the recovery state. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bootstrapping the process of model selection: AN econometric example

If a researcher has mined the data (i.e. selected an empirical model based on a series of trial estimates), inferences based on the final set of results are in general incorrect. This note treats the entire data mining process as an estimator and shows how a bootstrapping technique may improve the quality of inference. The method is applied to an empirical example on the deterrent effects of capital punishment.     

Determining the final form of a linear dynamic econometric model

This paper outlines a method for determining the final form and associated quantities of a linear or linearized dynamic econometric model. The method is based on the Cauchy integral formula which is approximated by a Riemann sum and evaluated with the fast Fourier transform algorithm. The approach is seen to fit naturally into both the time and frequency domain methods of analyzing dynamic econometric models. An empirical application illustrates the use of the technique.     

A labor-oriented quarterly econometric forecasting model of the youngstown-Warren SMSA

Our model contains forty-two stochastic equations and thirty-two identities designed to explain variation in manhours of work, employment, weekly wages and the wage bill by sector of activity for the Youngstown-Warren SMSA. Methodology in the development of these equations is discussed and the regression results shown. The paper evaluates the simulation results of the model by showing the root mean squares error and percent root mean squares error for the major aggregates using both dynamic and historic system simulations.     

An econometric procedure for estimation of a generalized systemic gravity model under incomplete information about the system

Gravity spatial interaction models have a long history and a wide scope of empirical applications, Alonso (1973) proposed a generalized model whose structure subsumes major versions of the gravity model in the literature as special cases. Little attention has been given to how the general model might be estimated, or if it is estimable at all. This paper develops an econometric procedure for situations where all places in a geographic system are not included in the observations. The general model and various constrained versions are empirically estimated on a sample of intermetropolitan migration data and compared.     

An econometric study on the dynamics of urban spatial structure

Using data on 43 randomly selected census tracts for each of 39 U.S. cities in 1970, we present a comprehensive econometric analysis of a varying parameter density gradient (VCM) model in which the functional form, together with the variance components of an implied error structure, is freely estimated. We generalize a recent model of Johnson and Kau in which certain city- and tract-specific socioeconomic variables are introduced to depict the dynamic process of urban growth. Since these variables can be either controlled by policy actions or projected on the basis of time, we reexamine the usefulness of VCM framework for both forecasting and policy simulation purposes.     

An econometric model of U.K. manufacturing employment using survey data on expected output

A model of U.K. manufacturing employment is estimated in which output expectations data are derived from Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey information. The output expectations terms are highly significant, and equations including them encompass more traditional models that use current and lagged output. In addition, the equations also successfully predict the sharp falls in manufacturing employment that occurred after 1979. One interesting implication of these equations is that the decline in ‘cyclically adjusted’ productivity around 1975, and the subsequent improvement around 1980, can be largely explained in terms of a prolonged period of over-optimistic output expectations by U.K. firms.     

An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand

This paper addresses the determination of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand. Full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model. Price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation. Sociodemographic variables, such as age, have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation.     

Forecasting with an econometric model: Some recent results using the national institute model

It is widely believed that the large econometric models cannot be used for forecasting without considerable intervention on the part of the forecaster. In this paper we challenge this view by reproducing a number of recent forecasts published by the National Institute but without the ad hoc interventions used at the time. We show that in no case would the forecast, produced by the model used mechanically, have been radically different from that actually published. Further, in an ex-post comparison against actual out-turns, the mechanical model forecast is not obviously dominated by the published version.