Stochastic inflation and government provision of indexed bonds

This paper examines the consequences of using indexed bonds as one of the government financing instruments, along with money and taxes. It is shown that open market operations between money and indexed bonds do not matter in a real sense despite their different risk characteristics. Increasing the share of indexed bonds in the government portfolio increases the volatility and the conditional mean of real rates of return on money. When provided by means other than open market operations, indexed bonds can affect the allocation of resources, but these reallocations cannot be Pareto-improving.     

The International Transmission of Money Market Fluctuations

This study analyzes the interdependence of money markets in Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The authors estimate a vector-autoregression system using daily data on three-month money market rates from December 31, 1979, through February 28, 1990. Consistent with the notion of informational efficiency, money markets respond very rapidly to a shock in any one country. The U.S. market plays a leading role, in that the after-effects of a shock there are much stronger and last much longer than those of a shock elsewhere. In contrast with previous studies on stock markets, the responses are larger and more persistent, the markets are less interdependent, and the U.S. market is relatively less influential.     

Money,Bonds, and the Liquidity Trap

This paper examines a search model of money and public bonds in which coordination frictions lead to multiple, Pareto ranked equilibria. Whether money and bonds are substitutes or complements, is not a primitive of the economy, but an equilibrium outcome. There exists an equilibrium resembling a liquidity trap, in which money and bonds are perfect substitutes, interest rates are zero, and monetary policy is ineffective; and a superior equilibrium in which money and bonds are complements, interest rates are positive and monetary policy has a liquidity effect. On this view, the liquidity trap is a belief-driven phenomenon.     

利率市场化对储蓄国债发行影响的研究：基于向量自回归模型（VAR）分析

本文以广西2008至2012年的储蓄国债发售、银行代客理财资金和储蓄存款规模这三大主要金融投资产品为研究对象,通过构建向量自回归模型（VAR）以及脉冲响应函数,分析货币市场利率波动与主要金融产品之间的互动影响关系.实证分析表明,储蓄国债与其他主要金融产品存在互动影响关系,货币市场利率波动能够传导至储蓄国债的发售.此外在羊群效应的影响下,储蓄国债和其他金融产品销售具有阶段性同步特征.     

Optimal monetary policy in an economy with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk

This study investigates an incomplete markets economy in which the saving behavior of a continuum of infinitely lived agents is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints. Agents can use two types of assets (interest bearing IOUS and money) to smooth consumption. Money is valued because of a timing friction in the bond market. In particular, the bond market closes before agents observe their idiosyncratic productivity shock. I find that the Friedman rule is not optimal for this economy. The results indicate that the optimal allocation has a rate of inflation of 10%, and a positive amount of private credit held by the government. A positive inflation rate transfers resources from agents with big endowments to those holding bonds which improves risk sharing, and therefore, welfare. However, for higher rates of inflation, agents economize on money holdings, offsetting the insurance effects, and causing a reduction in welfare. Furthermore, higher rates of inflation discourage agents from borrowing, and the endogenous lower bound on bond holdings is higher than the exogenous borrowing limit. High rates of inflation, therefore, exacerbate frictions in the bond market.     

关于我国利率和利率传导关系的思考

当前我国银行体系利率大致可分为货币市场利率和信贷市场利率,其中由央行指定的利率主要有存贷款基准利率、再贴现率等。在货币市场上,隔夜同业拆借利率具有基准利率的地位。在信贷市场上,在特定时期,保持适当的存贷款利差具有积极意义。由于一些阻碍信贷市场与货币市场统一的制度安排的存在,这两个市场间的利率传导呈现出一定的不对称性。为推进利率市场化,进一步完善我国利率体系,下一步应逐步弥合市场分割,加强货币市场基准利率建设,培育商业银行利率定价能力。     

Quantitative Easing in the 1930s

During the 1934–39 recovery from the U.S. Great Depression, overnight interest rates were usually at a lower bound. Meanwhile, American monetary authorities followed policies related to today's debates on quantitative easing: they tried to stabilize yields on Treasury bonds with open market operations; they created rapid growth in high‐powered money; and they allowed transitory factors to affect high‐powered money. Effects of these policies on bond yields reveal a portfolio effect of short‐duration asset supply on term premiums. This portfolio effect helps explain why high‐powered money growth was associated with recovery of real activity over 1934–39.     

Deregulation and oligopolistic rivalry in bank deposit markets

This paper provides a partial equilibrium analysis of a deregulated market for bank deposits in which banks behave oligopolistically but entry and exit are freely permitted. It is demonstrated that the effects of variations in market interest rates, reserve requirements, and bank cost and demand conditions upon the market quantity of bank deposit money are fundamentally altered if the degree of bank rivalry adjusts endogenously. Hence, banking deregulation may produce significant changes in the relationships between these variables and the stock of deposit money.     

2011年1月银行间市场运行报告

2011年1月,银行间市场安全、稳定、有效运行,交易量稳步增长。主要特点是：货币市场资金面持续紧张,利率大幅上升,短期交易仍占主导;现券市场国债指数先扬后抑,交易集中于中短期品种,政策性金融债受青睐;外汇市场即期尝试做市机构表现积极,非美货币交易进一步活跃;利率互换交易同比显著放大,成交利率持续走高,尝试做市机构在汇率衍生品市场亦显活跃。     

Efficient monetary allocations and the illiquidity of bonds

We construct a monetary economy with heterogeneity in discounting and consumption risk. Agents can insure against this risk with money and nominal government bonds, but all trades must be monetary. We demonstrate that a deflationary policy à la Friedman cannot sustain the constrained-efficient allocation as no-arbitrage imposes too stringent a bound on the return money can pay. The constrained-efficient allocation can be sustained when bonds have positive yields and, under certain conditions, only if they are illiquid. Illiquidity, meaning that bonds cannot be transformed into consumption as easily as cash, is necessary to eliminate arbitrage opportunities due to disparities in shadow interest rates.     

Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises

This article develops an index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive demand for liquidity in the money market. We begin with the theoretical foundation of this new method. With the newly defined crisis episodes, we examine the determinants of banking crises using data complied from 47 countries. We find that slowdown of real GDP, lower real interest rates, extremely high inflation, large fiscal deficits, and over-valued exchange rates tend to precede banking crises. The effects of monetary base growth on the probability of banking crises are negligible.     

A model of the Federal Reserve Act under the international gold standard system

Freeman (Am. Econom. Rev. 86 (1996a) 1126) shows that an elastic money supply enhances the efficiency of monetary equilibrium by clearing default-free debts at par value in the domestic credit market. This research adds a foreign exchange market to Freeman's model and extends his analysis into a two-country model, in which the arrival rates of agents are not equal between the two countries. In this model, an elastic money supply in the foreign exchange market to clear the exchange of fiat monies at gold standard parity, accompanied by an elastic money supply in the domestic credit market, could improve the efficiency of monetary equilibrium.     

2019年银行间市场运行报告

2019年流动性保持合理充裕,货币市场利率中枢整体下行;债券市场对外开放成效显著,成交量同比大增;风险事件爆发后,不同信用等级债券收益率走势分化;利率衍生品市场的广度和深度均上升,基于LPR基准的产品应时而出;人民币汇率先强后弱,经历“两升两贬”后最终收贬;外汇市场成交量稳步增长,外币货币市场建设驶入快车道。     

关注欧洲日益扩大的负利率

随着欧债危机持续发酵，主要经济体开始酝酿或实施更宽松的货币政策，欧洲货币市场资金不断从高风险工具撤出并涌入低风险工具，导致边缘国家国债收益率持续攀升，核心国家与部分非欧元区国家市场利率不断下降。文章从市场行为角度解释了欧洲出现大面积负利率的原因，指出这一现象反映出欧洲货币市场的结构性问题，欧元区货币政策传导机制出现失灵值得关注。     

英国利率市场化回顾及其对金融业改革的影响

利率市场化是指金融机构在货币市场经营融资的利率由市场供求来决定。它包括利率决定、利率传导、利率结构和利率管理的市场化。文章介绍了英国利率市场化改革的背景、实施过程及其对英国经济金融运行与货币政策调控产生的积极影响。指出利率市场化改革后,英国的宏观经济环境趋于稳定,社会融资结构逐渐向直接融资为主转变;利率市场化为其后旨在提高英国金融业竞争力的金融市场改革铺平了道路。     

Financial innovation,new assets,and the behavior of money demand

Two fundamental changes in US banking regulations have affected the behavior of money demand (M1). The first authorized checkable deposit accounts paying explicit interest rates. The second allowed these rates to be market determined. The theoretical literature does not directly address the impact of these events, suggesting that they are primarily an empirical issue. However, the empirical literature has yet to agree on the impact of financial innovation on money demand; for example, several studies report an increase in the elasticity of money demand, several others report a decline. This paper uses a Lancaster-type choice model to analyze formally the expected impact of these two changes on the demand for money. The model derives specific conditions under which (i) the demand for money increases as new assets are introduced and (ii) the impact of either the introduction of new assets or the elimination of interest rate restrictions on the elasticity of money demand.     

Foreign Shocks on Chilean Financial Markets: Spillovers and Comovements Between Bond and Equity Markets

Abstract:

The domestic impact of external shocks will depend on the degree of coupling of domestic assets to foreign markets, but also on the spillovers among assets. The covariance between different types of assets could be affected by new information. Changes in the covariance, for example, could come from a stronger rebalancing between stocks and bonds. Therefore, we will analyze four different assets-government bonds, corporate bonds, money market instruments, and equities-and study the conditional correlation between them. We find that the corporate bond market tends to increase coupling in turbulent times, while the money market decreases coupling. We propose to test international spillovers taking into account a methodology for estimating the conditional mean, variance, and covariance on domestic bond and equity markets, while considering that shocks may have asymmetric effects depending on whether the news is good or bad.     

On the Interaction between Transfer Restrictions and Crediting Strategies in Guaranteed Funds

Guaranteed funds with crediting rates for fixed periods determined by a pension provider or insurance company are common features of accumulation annuity contracts. Policyholders can transfer money back and forth between these accounts and money market accounts that give them features similar to demand deposits, and yet they frequently credit a higher rate than the money market. Transfer restrictions are commonly employed to prevent arbitrage. In this article, we model the interaction between company and policyholder as a multiperiod game in which the company maximizes risk-neutral expected present value of profits and the policyholder maximizes his expected discounted utility. We find that the optimal strategy on the part of the company is to credit a rate higher than the money market rate in the first period to entice the policyholder to invest in the guaranteed fund. The company then credits the floor in the remaining periods as the policyholder transfers out the maximum amount. This does better for the policyholder in low interest rate environments and worse in high interest rate environments and acts as a type of “interest rate insurance” for the policyholder.     

“国债＋回购”无风险理财新选择——国债现券与回购利差套利方法的实用性研究

国债回购具有类似于国债风险低、收益稳定、流动性高的特点,由于我国国债以及证券市场发展的不完善,在国债现券和回购之间长期存在着大约2%～3%的利差。利用国债现券与国债回购之间的利差进行无风险套利,既规避了金融风险,又充分利用了资金的使用价值,其收益高于同期银行存款利率。在目前理财手段并不丰富的背景下,非常值得向投资者推荐。     

公开市场操作对债券市场的影响研究

选取2007年1月1日~2014年2月28日为研究区间,观察央行公开市场操作对债券市场的影响,用以判断该货币政策手段所产生的效果。研究发现,在全样本中,无论是放松还是收紧银根的操作,对债券市场的影响均只表现在个别市场,而且影响滞后、较弱。单独研究长期品种操作的结果发现,央行公开市场紧缩操作对债券市场的影响显著,方向与预期一致;而公开市场放松操作在债券市场几乎没有反应,说明没有通过债券市场的传导产生政策效果。