Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

Understanding fertilizer adoption and effectiveness on maize in Zambia

Increased fertilizer use will likely be crucial for raising and sustaining farm productivity in Africa, but adoption may be limited by ineffectiveness under certain conditions. This article quantifies the impacts of soil characteristics on maize response to fertilizer in Zambia using a nationally representative sample of 1453 fields, combining economic, farm management and soil analysis data. Depending on soil regimes, average maize yield response estimates range from insignificant (0) to 7 maize kg per fertilizer kg. For the majority of farmers, the estimated average value cost ratio is between 1 and 2, meaning fertilizer use would be fiscally rational, barring uncertainty and transfer costs. Since transfer costs exist and outcomes are uncertain, however, many farmers may sensibly pause before deciding whether to adopt fertilizer. This suggests shifting the emphasis of chronically low fertilizer use in Africa away from explanations of “market failure” toward greater emphasis on improving fertilizer efficacy.     

Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts,adaptive cropping systems,and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia

This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Niño Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer implements these adaptive farm management strategies in response to seasonal forecast information is found to increase substantially as the number of private grain buyers in the farmers’ village increases. This suggests that climate change adaptation and resilience strategies that integrate the generation and dissemination of weather information with agricultural market development can achieve greater impact on farmers’ adaptive responses than approaches that treat these activities in isolation.     

Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

Putting the 2007/2008 global food crisis in longer-term perspective: Trends in staple food affordability in urban Zambia and Kenya

Staple food prices in cities in eastern and southern Africa rose sharply between late 2007 and early 2009, leading to estimates of massive increases in food insecurity and hunger. However, in assessing the impacts of soaring food prices on urban consumers’ access to food it is important to consider food price changes relative to changes in per capita incomes. In this study, we use the case studies of Zambia and Kenya, where data are available on food prices, wage rates, incomes, and other indicators of urban purchasing power to answer two main questions: (i) how did staple food purchasing power at the height of the food price crisis compare to levels over the last 15 years? and (ii) did the food price crisis exacerbate an already declining trend in staple food purchasing power, or did it reverse a trend of stable or improving staple food affordability? Results indicate that staple food purchasing power in urban Zambia and Kenya improved markedly in the 10–12 years prior to the food price crisis. Most measures of bread and maize meal affordability at the start of the crisis in 2007 were at levels 1.0–4.3 times higher than in the mid-1990s. These gains for urban consumers were slashed but not completely reversed during the food crisis. Between 2007 and 2009, maize meal and bread were still more affordable in urban Zambia than all periods between 1994 and 2003. In urban Kenya, staple food purchasing power as of 2008/2009 was comparable to levels in 2000/2001–2004/2005 according to some indicators, while other measures suggest that the food price crisis reduced staple food purchasing power to levels lower than any other year in the period 1994/1995–2007/2008.     

ICT and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Transmission channels and effects

Despite significant progress in the empirical analysis of the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on economic growth, previous studies have not empirically examined the mechanisms by which ICT hinders or expands economic growth. The specific aim of the present study was to identify the transmission channels through which ICT contributes to economic growth. The examined channels included; openness, FDI inflows, education, domestic investment, political institution, and inflation. The study employed the panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) and system two step system GMM techniques on a sample of 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 2004–2020. Using an ICT composite index, the causal mediation analysis identified that ICT contributed directly to growth, as proposed by the growth theories. Furthermore, the same analysis identified; domestic investment, openness, and education as crucial variables through which ICT penetration indirectly promoted per capita growth in the SSA region. The robustness of this result was verified using a variety of tools. The present findings suggested that the current efforts to expand ICTs in Sub-Saharan Africa should be continued since this sector has a considerable indirect impact on promoting economic growth.     

Interest groups,power relations,and the configuration of value chains: The case of biodiesel in India

Production of biodiesel is technologically simple, and the process of value addition – from the cultivation of oilseeds to oil extraction and transesterification – is straightforward. There is, however, great variation in the socioeconomic configuration of this value chain. In some regions of India, the cultivation of tree-borne oilseeds is organised in a social forestry mode, in which poor landless people are paid to perform reforestation tasks and receive usufruct rights to collect oilseeds; in other regions, peasant cooperatives, subcontracting arrangements between farmers and transnational corporations, or large-scale plantations are promoted. There are also many different end uses and ways of processing biodiesel, from village-level projects for rural off-grid electrification to large scale processing. This article explains how five Indian states have developed biodiesel policies that reflect different political goals and favour different constituencies, reflecting the states’ specific socioeconomic structures, power relations norms.     

A comparative political economic analysis of maize sector policies in eastern and southern Africa

Maize sector policies in eastern and southern Africa are characterized by a large and often growing presence of the state. Yet the scope, scale, and modalities of state activities vary substantially across countries. Drawing on data from Malawi, Zambia, Kenya, and Mozambique this article compares the relative degree of state intervention in the maize sector. We show that relative preferences for output market subsidies, input market subsidies, trade restrictions, or non-interventionist approaches reflect the interplay of interest group lobbying, patronage networks, and ethnic and regional political affiliations. These relationships have deep historical roots and have often been intensified in the context of the emergence of multiparty politics. We show that interventionist orientations in output markets and trade do not translate into better performance or welfare outcomes. Input subsidy preferences produce more ambiguous welfare results, when the opportunity costs are not fully accounted for.     

Information communications technology and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A panel data approach

This research empirically analyzed the impact of mobile phone and the Internet on per capita income of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period of 2006–2015 using a panel data of 40 countries. We have employed the robust two-step system GMM. Results showed that growth in mobile phone penetration has contributed significantly to the GDP per capita of the region after controlling for a number of other variables. A 10% increase in mobile phone penetration results in a 1.2% change in GDP per capita. Therefore, improving access to mobile phones will play a critical role in reducing the poverty level of the region through raising the per capita income of the population.However, the Internet has not contributed to the per capita GDP during the study period. The insignificant impact of the Internet could be due to low penetration of the technology, low ICT skill of Internet users, lack of or insufficient local content on the global network, and the relatively immature state of the technology in the region. Therefore, governments and other stakeholders should design policies that encourage expansion of the Internet. In addition to improving Internet access, policies which focus on ICT skill development and local content creation should also be designed and implemented.     

Potential of and constraints to the rice Green Revolution in Mozambique: A case study of the Chokwe irrigation scheme

This paper investigates the potential of and constraints to a lowland rice Green Revolution in Mozambique, using data from an agro-climatically favorable area, the Chokwe irrigation scheme. Our data show that, although the potential is high, the insufficient supply of irrigation water, excessively expensive chemical fertilizer, and moderately costly labor hinder the scheme from achieving that potential. First of all, an improvement in irrigation is crucial as it increases yield not only directly but also indirectly through its complementary relationship to chemical fertilizer. We also find that an improvement in credit access is important as it can increase the application of chemical fertilizer and labor by making the acquisition of these expensive inputs through markets possible. The unavailability of hired and exchange labor during peak seasons is another constraint to the intensive use of labor. The introduction of rice varieties with a shorter maturity duration would relax the timing of transplanting and thus spread out the peak seasons’ labor demand.     

Targeting agricultural research and extension for food security and poverty alleviation: A case study of fish farming in Central Cameroon

Over 5 years of participatory on-farm research, market access, profitability, farming systems productivity and economic sustainability were compared on 100 small-scale farms in Central Cameroon. Integration technology based on the use of agricultural by-products as fishpond inputs was the driver for intensification. Over all farms, fishpond productivity increased from 498 kg to 1609 kg fish/ha (2145 kg/ha/yr). During the project period, the number of active fish farmers increased from 15 to 192 (including 55 farms which participated only through information exchange). Over all farms, net returns from aquaculture increased by 5 times over pre-project levels. Productivity, intensity and profitability increased more significantly in periurban areas with good market access, compared to rural areas. Among farmers with good market access, average net income from the aquaculture enterprise rose from $118 up to $1485. Research-Extension Team (RET) support cost an average of $61,300 per year. Over 5 years, rural farmers recaptured 23% of the relevant RET investment compared to 442% by periurban farmers. Likewise, increase in production attributable to RET intervention was higher for periurban (253%) compared to rural (11.3%) fish farmers. Within 3 years of the end of extension support, rural farmers had returned to pre-project production levels, whereas periurban farms had better maintained their productivity and profitability. Findings indicate that, in areas with little or no access to markets, the number of fishponds and fish farmers can be increased and yields improved, increasing local food supplies, but sustainability in the absence of extension subsidies is questionable. To achieve either of the two principal goals for the sector, food security and/or poverty alleviation, investments need to be made in improving the availability of quality technical assistance to targeted farmers and finding means of reducing social conflict arising from perceived inequalities in the accrual of the benefits of development.     

Hedging grain price risk in the SADC: Case studies of Malawi and Zambia

We use simulation methods to examine the results of hedging maize food security imports into Malawi and Zambia on the South African Exchange (SAFEX). Results show that hedging using either futures or options can spread import costs over time, thereby reducing variability, and also possibly generating lower average costs. These benefits are increased if hedging only takes place when local prices are at less than import parity and also if the hedge is levered. However, problems will remain so long as intra-regional transport costs remain high.     

Food demand studies in Sub-Saharan Africa: a survey of empirical evidence

The recent empirical food demand studies on Sub-Saharan Africa show significant advances in demand specification and methodology, especially in the application of less restrictive and theoretically consistent flexible functional forms. The findings to date establish some broad patterns on effect of income, household demography and life cycle, location, and prices on food demand patterns. However, the numerical values of the demand estimates are less generalizable because of an insufficient number of data points to separate the true demand component from other confounding factors, which are linked to differences in modeling and estimation of demand relations. The priority for future research is to generate sufficiently detailed demand estimates that have a high utility for disaggregated policy analysis, but are based on a theoretically consistent and comparable methodology.     

Technology,education, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines whether telecommunications infrastructure promotes economic growth in countries with better access to education compared to those with less access. Using a panel of 45 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1993 to 2015, the results using the fixed-effects, two-step feasible efficient generalized method of moments estimator indicate that in countries with better access to education, the Internet contributes to economic growth, while mobile phones do not seem to do so. These results suggest that while education is regarded as pivotal for the Internet, it seems to be irrelevant for mobile phone usage.     

Explaining smallholder maize marketing in southern and eastern Africa: The roles of market access,technology and household resource endowments

Research on household food grain sales behavior in developing countries has tended to focus on the roles of market access and prices to explain why many rural households do not sell staple crops, though recent literature suggests that low household asset endowments may also be key constraints. We use econometric analysis of panel data from smallholders in Kenya, Mozambique, and Zambia to inform the design of public investments that will enable smallholders to increase their maize sales. Results show that investments that raise farm-level productivity and land access are an essential complement to investments that improve market access.     

Review: Food loss and waste in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research, development practitioner, and donor community has begun to focus on food loss and waste – often referred to as post-harvest losses (PHL) – in Sub-Saharan Africa. This article reviews the current state of the literature on PHL mitigation. First, we identify explicitly the varied objectives underlying efforts to reduce PHL levels. Second, we summarize the estimated magnitudes of losses, evaluate the methodologies used to generate those estimates, and explore the dearth of thoughtful assessment around “optimal” PHL levels. Third, we synthesize and critique the impact evaluation literature around on-farm and off-farm interventions expected to deliver PHL reduction. Fourth, we suggest a suite of other approaches to advancing these same objectives, some of which may prove more cost-effective. Finally, we conclude with a summary of main points.     

Foreign direct investment,information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

The research assesses how information and communication technology (ICT) modulates the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth dynamics in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980–2014. The employed economic growth dynamics are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita while ICT is measured by mobile phone penetration and internet penetration. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The study finds that both internet penetration and mobile phone penetration overwhelmingly modulate FDI to induce overall positive net effects on all three economic growth dynamics. Moreover, the positive net effects are consistently more apparent in internet-centric regressions compared to “mobile phone”-oriented specifications. In the light of negative interactive effects, net effects are decomposed to provide thresholds at which ICT policy variables should be complemented with other policy initiatives in order to engender favourable outcomes on economic growth dynamics. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Impact of modern agricultural technologies on smallholder welfare: Evidence from Tanzania and Ethiopia

This paper evaluates the potential impact of adoption of improved legume technologies on rural household welfare measured by consumption expenditure in rural Ethiopia and Tanzania. The study utilizes cross-sectional farm household level data collected in 2008 from a randomly selected sample of 1313 households (700 in Ethiopia and 613 in Tanzania). The causal impact of technology adoption is estimated by utilizing endogenous switching regression. This helps us estimate the true welfare effect of technology adoption by controlling for the role of selection problem on production and adoption decisions. Our analysis reveals that adoption of improved agricultural technologies has a significant positive impact consumption expenditure (in per adult equivalent terms) in rural Ethiopia and Tanzania. This confirms the potential role of technology adoption in improving rural household welfare as higher consumption expenditure from improved technologies translate into lower poverty, higher food security and greater ability to withstand risk. An analysis of the determinants of adoption highlighted inadequate local supply of seed, access to information and perception about the new cultivars as key constraints for technology adoption.     

Matsushita v. Zenith: An economic analysis

The Supreme Court erred by deciding that the proposition — that the Japanese television manufacturers, the defendants inMatsushita, had acted as independent competitors — had greater plausibility than the plaintiffs' charge that they had conspired to depress U.S. prices and take a large part of the U.S. market. Independent competitors would not have exported to the U.S., where prices were much below those in the home market. Moreover, the record evidence showed collusion in both the home and U.S. markets. Intent was also shown by the construction of large capacity to supply the U.S.Professor of Economics, New School for Social Research. I was co-author of Horace J. DePodwin, David Schwartzman, and Marcio Teixeira, "Economic Study of the Japanese Television Industry, prepared for plaintiffs' counsel in the Japanese Electronic Products Litigation, M.D.L. 189, Civ. Nos. 74–2451 and 74–3247 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, September 1979 [hereafter referred to as the DePodwin Report]. The present article is based on David Schwartzman,The Japanese Television Cartel: A Study Based on Matsushita v. Zenith (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 1993).     

An economic analysis of deferred examination system: Evidence from a policy reform in Japan

We investigate how a deferred patent examination system promotes ex-ante screening of patent applications, which reduces both the number of granted patents and the use of economic resources for examinations, without reducing the return from R&D. Based on a real option theory, we develop a model of examination request behaviors. Exploiting the responses of Japanese firms to recent policy reform, we find that the shortening of the allowable period for an examination request significantly increases both eventual and early requests, controlling for the blocking use of a pending patent application. This effect is stronger in technology areas with higher uncertainty. These results support the importance of uncertainty for an applicant and of ex-ante screening.