Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Southeast Asia: a Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis, 1990–2013

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and income distribution in the host country as measured by the Gini coefficient. After providing some background and reviewing the extant literature, it undertakes a panel unit root and cointegration analysis that tests whether FDI has a non-linear impact on income inequality in seven selected Southeast Asian countries over the period 1990 to 2013. The paper finds strong evidence for panel cointegration using the Pedroni Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Thus, it proceeds to utilize the group-mean fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) procedure to generate long-run estimates that are unbiased and consistent. The FMOLS estimator is also extremely accurate even in panels with very heterogeneous serial correlation dynamics, fixed effects, and endogenous regressors. The results confirm the hypothesis that FDI inflows tend to raise income inequality in the short run but reduce it in the long run. In this study, the Gini index starts decreasing after FDI inflows as a percentage of GDP reaches 5.6. The fact that the Gini coefficient reaches its maximum at a relatively low level of FDI inflows suggests that sample countries are endowed with substantial absorptive capacity. In other words, they will shift into the new technological paradigm quickly, thus supporting pro-globalization claims that, on balance, FDI is more beneficial than harmful.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Intellectual Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Different Income Groups

This study examines the impact of intellectual property rights (IPRs) on Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows by considering global data with three income groups classified by World Bank (i.e. high-, middle-, and low-income groups). The empirical model relates FDI inflows to IPRs, controlled by a set of known variables, namely GDP per capital, trade openness, real exchange rate, and real interest rate. The study covers panel data of between 35 and 100 countries for the period 1980–2014. The panel cointegration tests suggest that FDI inflow and IPRs with the other control variables are cointegrated for full countries and high-income group. Their estimated (long-run) coefficients are 0.04 and 0.18, respectively, but insignificant in the short-run. The impact (short-run) of TRIPS agreement is positive for full countries, but negative for low-income group. Non-causality tests further support the role of IPRs on FDI. Various transmission channels have been identified, in particularly for low-income countries. This study enlightens policymakers about the policy on creating a conducive and sustainable environment for IPRs in order to encourage FDI inflows to their countries.     

探讨金融市场发展对提升外商直接投资质量的作用

外商直接投资通过溢出效应可以促进东道国经济的持续增长,但这种促进作用的实现受到东道国"吸收能力"的影响。金融市场发展是提升吸收能力的一个重要因素。实证研究表明,金融市场信贷规模的扩大以及两者间的交互作用,有助于增强FDI对经济增长的促进作用。不过,目前我国由金融市场发展而决定的FDI溢出效应尚不明显,为此,本文提出了如何推动国内金融市场发展提升FDI质量的相关政策建议。     

Determinants of foreign direct investment in Cambodia

This paper analyses the determinants of the factors that might influence inward FDI in Cambodia by referring to its economic, geographic, and political characteristics. Using exclusive unbalanced panel data sets during 1995–2005, for both approved and realized FDI for, respectively, seventeen and fifteen home countries, the estimation results show that the determinants of approved FDI and realized FDI are somewhat similar. The FDI home country's GDP, its bilateral trade with the host country and the exchange rate have a positive impact on inward FDI flows into Cambodia. As expected, geographic distance negatively affects the level of FDI inflows in Cambodia.     

多维视角下FDI流入的中国贸易条件效应

最近十几年,FDI流入对中国所产生的贸易条件效应出现了新的变化。FDI流入对中国产生了"工资外溢"效应,但并没能通过该效应改善其价格贸易条件;FDI流入没有从根本上改善中国的贸易结构,从而导致较大的价格贸易条件波动性。FDI流入的大幅增加,使得中国对外贸易出口数量也大幅增加,从而在很大程度上弥补了中国价格贸易条件的恶化,带来了其收入贸易条件的改善。相对而言,FDI流入对中国的单要素及多要素贸易条件的改善幅度远小于收入贸易条件,因此,中国在大量引入FDI的同时,应大力提高生产率和技术水平,实现其单要素贸易条件和双要素贸易条件的改善最大化。     

东道国金融发展水平对FDI流入量的影响机制研究

东道国的金融发展水平是影响FDI区位选择的因素之一,本文针对金融因素对FDI流入的影响机制做出特定的分析,发现两者的关系并非是单调的,当金融发展水平很低且东道国存在金融扭曲时,金融体系的缺陷会导致东道国对FDI的需求,使FDI成为国内低效率金融体系的代替。当金融发展到一定的水平之后,金融发展水平与FDI呈正相关的关系,即金融发展水平越高,越会吸引FDI流入。     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange rate stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from the ability to react in a flexible way to asymmetric real shocks and increases the probability of speculative capital inflows and overheating. In contrast, exchange rate stability can be argued to affect growth in emerging market economies positively as transactions costs for international trade decline, uncertainty for international capital flows is less and macroeconomic stability is enhanced. Cross country panel estimations provide evidence for a negative impact of the exchange rate volatility on growth in both Emerging Europe and East Asia. Parts of this negative growth effect can be associated with exchange rate volatility caused by macroeconomic instability.     

How Does Country Risk Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

Using the overall FDI inflows for 89 countries during the period from 1985 to 2007, we empirically investigate the effects on inward FDI of various components of political and financial risk. We examine the effects of not only the level of these risks but also their changes over time. One of the major findings is that among the political and financial risks, only the political risk is adversely associated with FDI inflows. Specifically, not only the initially low level of political risk, but also a decrease in the level of political risk helps to bring a greater amount of FDI inflows. On the other hand, lower financial risk does not attract FDI inflows, especially to developing countries. Among the various components of political risk, in the sample of developing countries only, it is found that internal conflict, corruption, military in politics, and bureaucracy quality are inversely related to inward FDI flows.     

Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are an increasingly used policy instrument to encourage FDI inflows, particularly inflows into developing countries. In this paper we estimate a gravity model of FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of developing economies, examining the impact of BITs on these flows. BITs are signed between highly heterogeneous country-pairs, with important differences found in terms of the institutional and economic distance between BIT signatories. These differences may help explain the mixed results on the effects of BITs on FDI flows in the existing literature, with our exploration of non-linearities in this relationship suggesting that the effects of BITs are increasing in the difference in GDP and GDP per capita between source and host. BITs appear to have no impact upon FDI flows for country-pairs that are too dissimilar in terms of the strength of their political institutions.     

FDI and productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe, using a new and harmonized industry-level data set. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings.     

Bilateral investment treaties as deterrents of host-country discretion: the impact of investor-state disputes on foreign direct investment in developing countries

The recent boom of investor-state disputes filed under international investment agreements has fueled a controversial academic and policy debate. We study the impact of these compensation claims on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the responding host country. Our econometric analysis focuses on differences in the FDI response from BIT-partner and non-partner countries of developing host countries. This approach allows us not only to distinguish competing hypotheses about BIT function, but also to address endogeneity concerns in earlier studies. We find that BITs stimulate bilateral FDI flows from partner countries—but only so long as the developing host country has not had a claim brought against it to arbitration. Our results provide an additional explanation for the policy-changes observed in many states subsequent to their first experience of an investor-state dispute.     

Business Conditions and Exit Risks Across Countries

The risk of market exit that business firms face is significant and differs widely across countries. This paper explores the links between countries’ business conditions and the exit risk at the country level. We set up a general equilibrium model which allows us to derive sharp predictions concerning how key factors which shape a country’s business and trade environment impact on the exit risk of firms which operate in these environments. The model is able to explain the negative correlation between countries’ average labor productivity and the perceived risks of exit borne out in the facts and its predictions accord with evidence on country differences in business conditions.     

Domestic interest rate,foreign direct investment,and corruption

It has been argued that foreign direct investment can exert upward or downward pressure on the domestic interest rate depending on foreign investors’ relative weights on internal and external finance with respect to the domestic economy. Additionally, a country’s level of corruption can influence firms’ ability to obtain external finance. We find that across countries a 1 percent increase in FDI inflows (outflows) is more likely to reduce the domestic interest rate by as much as 0.7 (1) percent. This empirical association between domestic interest rates and FDI flows is non-monotonically contingent on a country’s level of corruption.

     

Ease of doing business and investment among West African countries

This study assessed the link between ease of doing business (EBD) and investment among 11 selected countries in West Africa covering 2006–2020. The study used the fixed-effects estimator, the random-effects estimator, the augmented mean-group method, and the Half-Panel Jackknife Wald-type test. The study found a bidirectional relationship between the EBD and foreign direct investment (FDI) and a unidirectional relationship running from EBD to domestic investment. The findings further revealed that the EBD and national income have a strong influence in determining the level of domestic investment and FDI inflows, and that some indicators of EBD, such as the procedure for starting a business, access to credit facilities, tax, and security threats, discourage domestic investment and FDI inflows, in contrast to the influence of obtaining electricity and national income on investment. The study suggests that West African governments reduce taxes, ease the procedures and costs of starting a business and dealing with construction permits, and increase the availability of credit facilities at lower interest rates to promote investment in the region.     

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: MARKET‐ORIENTED VERSUS COST‐ORIENTED

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment (FDI). We first employ a real options model to show that while the depreciation of a host country's currency tends to stimulate FDI activity of cost‐oriented firms, the depreciation tends to deter FDI activity for market‐oriented firms. With industry panel data on Taiwan's outward FDI into China over the period 1991–2002, our empirical findings indicate that the exchange rate level and its volatility in addition to the relative wage rate have had a significant impact on Taiwanese firms’ outward FDI into China. In general, the empirical results are consistent with the prediction of the theory. Our results reveal that the relationship between exchange rates and FDI is crucially dependent on the motives of the investing firms. Without considering this fact in an empirical model, the testing results might suffer from aggregations bias.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows: The Role of Governance Infrastructure

It is widely argued that a country’s economic performance over time is determined to a great extent by its political, institutional and legal environment. We refer to these institutions and policies as the governance infrastructure of a country. We utilize newly developed indices to examine the effects of governance infrastructure on both foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and outflows for a broad sample of developed and developing countries over 1995–97. In addition, we examine the role of other forms of infrastructure including human capital and the environment. The results clearly indicate that governance infrastructure is an important determinant of both FDI inflows and outflows. Investments in governance infrastructure not only attract capital, but also create the conditions under which domestic multinational corporations emerge and invest abroad. It would appear that investments in governance infrastructure are subject to diminishing returns, so that the benefits, in terms of inflows, are most pronounced for smaller and developing economies.     

Do contagion effects exist in capital flow volatility?

The cross-border transmission of a financial shock has been a subject of rich literature. While a large number of studies have focused on the phenomenon of strong co-movements of asset prices and capital flows in the event of financial stress, very few discussed the contagion or spillover effects in terms of capital flow volatility. This paper is one of the first attempts to assess, empirically, whether or not there is a global and regional spillover effect in the volatility of capital flows to emerging and developing countries. Based on the sample of 49 emerging and developing countries for the period 1980–2009, the empirical results suggest strong and significant contagion effects in the volatility of capital flows to individual economies. The magnitudes of contagion vary depending on the type of capital flows, whether it is foreign direct investment (FDI) or portfolio and other investment (mostly bank lending). The findings also suggest the volatility dynamics of gross flows is different from that of net flows. The volatility of net inflows is more exposed to intra-regional contagion compared to that of gross inflows.     

Temporary Migration and Foreign Direct Investment

The question of complementarity or substitutability of FDI and international labour mobility has not yet been answered. The substitutability assumption does not take into consideration the technological spillover of FDI in the host countries. Moreover, migration flows reveal cultural characteristics and labour force properties of their native country which may stimulate bilateral business networks, strengthening the complementarity assumption between capital and labour flows. In this paper we build a continuous time dynamic model where these offsetting forces are at work. We analyze whether, and to what extent, the increase in labour mobility might affect FDI outflows. A numerical simulation is performed showing that a higher income growth rate corresponds to a higher labour mobility. Some policy implications and further research direction are suggested.     

Optimal Stabilization Policy Under Governmental Risk Aversion

Governmental stabilization policies take account of the underlying risk aversion of its voters. A utility function for the government is defined, one which includes variances of national income changes with respect to its policy instruments—here the budget variable, the bond rate of interest, and the currency-exchange rate. The consequence of this for the optimal set of policies is a target level of national income less than what a risk-neutral government aims at. This applies to an open economy when this is a key-currency country, as it need attend to balance-of-payments effects only insofar as they affect national income. The non-key-currency country, by contrast, must take account directly of balance-of-payments effects and their variance, so it reaches a lower level of utility than the key-currency country.