垂直专业化分工体系下贸易波动的行业差异性研究

本文计算了中国、日本、美国、英国等国各个部门出口波动情况,同时借助垂直专业化比率(VSS)这一指标衡量了各个部门参与垂直专业化分工的程度。测算结果表明:以其他商业服务(OCS)为典型代表的服务贸易相比于货物贸易尤其是高端货物贸易较少地参与了垂直专业化生产,服务贸易尤其是其他商业服务贸易以及传统货物贸易在国际金融危机中表现出较好的稳定性。     

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Concentration in the Global Banking Industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging‐market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging‐market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The UK New Regulatory Framework of High-Cost Short-Term Credit: Is There a Shift Towards a More “Law and Society” Based Approach?

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the consumer credit market in the UK has witnessed a proliferation in the number of high-cost short-term credit (HCSTC) providers promising easy access to credit without the complications of credit history. This act of generosity came at a very high price, which on some occasions reached 4000% APR. After refusing for many years to interfere with the credit price and other aspects of the HCSTC business’ practices, the Government since 2014 started to impose certain regulatory restrictions on the sector including a cost cap, January 2015, on what HCSTC providers can charge. This article argues that the FCA’s credit cost cap and other regulatory measures taken since 2014 signify an important shift in the regulatory approach to HCSTC. It argues that the neoliberal ‘law and economics’ theoretical paradigm is no longer the foundation of the regulatory framework. Instead, the Government has shifted towards a Polanyian ‘law and society’ based approach, which is attentive to the vulnerability of HCSTC consumers and consequently more capable of protecting them. This article concludes by arguing how this newly adopted approach can be further advanced.     

Learning from the “worst behaved”: Iceland's financial crisis and the Nordic comparison

This article explores how the financial crisis in 2008 could have been partially avoided by Iceland through observing the warning signs. Iceland experienced the harshest consequences from the financial crisis in the Western world, such as the total collapse of its banking sector. This article compares the prelude of Iceland's financial crisis to the Scandinavian one, less than 20 years ago, providing an understanding of the sources of the crisis and its impact. Results show that signs of overexpansion in Iceland were clear and numerous. Iceland's structural weaknesses resemble many other badly hit countries, simply more extreme. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Entrepreneurship,economic development,and institutional environment: evidence from OECD countries

The purpose of this article is to establish a typology of entrepreneurship for OECD countries over the 1999–2012 period. Our aim is to draw a distinction between managerial and entrepreneurial economies, to identify groups of countries with similar economic and entrepreneurial activity variables, and to determine the economic and institutional drivers of entrepreneurial activities in each group. We show that the level of development, sectoral specialization, and institutional variables related to entrepreneurship, functioning of the labor market, and openness of the country are decisive to understand differences in entrepreneurship activity across countries. Results show that the pre-crisis period, from 1999 to 2008, is a period of growth favorable to entrepreneurship. The financial crisis involved a break in entrepreneurial dynamism, with agricultural economies withstanding the financial crisis better. The 2010–2012 period of recovery is a period of a sharp slowdown in entrepreneurial activity, during which the countries that are less dependent on the financial sector proved to be the most resilient in terms of entrepreneurial activity. Nevertheless, it is the advanced knowledge economies with developed financial markets, fewer institutional regulatory constraints, and greater scope for qualitative entrepreneurship that show lower unemployment rates. These findings have important implications for the implementation of public policy in order to promote entrepreneurial activity and reduce unemployment.     

Japan's Lost Decade and its Financial System

After briefly explaining the causes of the Japanese asset‐price bubble in the 1980s, this paper analyses why the bursting of the bubble developed into a full‐fledged financial crisis in the late 1990s. In order to cope with this crisis, the Government has injected capital directly into the banking sector and banks have written off enormous amounts of bad loans. However, the Japanese financial sector remains very weak and Japan still faces a number of problems in its financial system. Firstly, the profit margin of banks is too small to cover the increased default risk following the bursting of the bubble, and there are market distortions created by the government‐backed financial institutions and the requirements on new lending to small and medium sized companies. Secondly, banks still have excessive stock investment and crossholding of shares between banks and other companies has weakened the market discipline on entrenched management. Thirdly, the government guarantee of all banking‐sector liabilities should be removed. Once the financial system is stabilised, a risk‐adjusted deposit insurance premium should be introduced so as to strengthen market discipline on banks, and the huge postal saving system should be privatised to create a level‐playing field among deposit taking financial institutions. Besides the foregoing, the weak corporate governance structure of Japanese financial institutions has to be remodelled. The management of banks has shielded themselves by extensive cross‐shareholdings, especially with life insurance companies. There has been extensive mutual provision of capital, most large life insurance companies have weak corporate governance, and many of the large shareholders of banks are life insurance companies. This double gearing between banks and life insurance companies has therefore weakened the market control of Japanese financial institutions.     

Small shop survival – The financial response to a global financial crisis

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many of which are small retail shops, remain the largest employer in the western world. Yet the financing of their fixed and working capital investments remains under-researched. This study focuses on this topic by examining Eurozone wholesale and retail SMEs enterprises at the peak of the 2008 financial credit crisis. In order to do this, an innovative analysis of existing theories in retail finance and policy research using generalised multilevel structural equation modelling is performed to establish how retail SMEs sourced capital during this period. This analysis, a first of its kind in wholesale and retail SME research, finds that pecking order theory, the independence of investment and financing, as well as the contest for financial resources between fixed and working capital do not hold for wholesale and retail SMEs. Moreover, it is found that government grants and subsidised loans were not used by SMEs in this sector of the Eurozone as primary sources of finance during the aftermath of the 2008 global credit crisis. Crucially, it is posited that a business environment characterized by stronger legal rights and deeper credit information did not improve SMEs’ access to external finance. The authors recommend that further research should be pursued in this field in order to improve current understanding of the resilience of retail SMEs for future global financial crises.     

The rocky road to modernity: 20 years of the Russian capital market

From a modest start almost 20 years ago, the Russian financial market has emerged as a major force in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. This article offers a retrospective account of the two decades of development of the financial sector in Russia, with an emphasis on the securities market; outlines the main stages in its development; and proposes an assessment of the capital market in comparison to other international markets. We conclude with an overview of the market's performance during the current financial crisis. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

中国金融体系的脆弱性与道德风险

道德风险行为就是当签约一方不完全承担风险后果时所采取的自身效用最大化的自私行为.中国金融体系存在严重的脆弱性,根本原因也在于道德风险.政府不仅对银行提供了担保,也认为证券市场"太大而不能失败".证券市场危机往往是金融危机的先行指标,随之而来的银行危机和货币危机将决定金融危机的深度和广度.中国金融体系的道德风险已经深入到最基层的代理人,其代价将是非常惨重的.     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

Whistleblowing,Governance and Regulation Before the Financial Crisis: The Case of HBOS

Following the financial crisis of 2008, the Treasury Committee of the UK House of Commons undertook an inquiry into the lessons that might be learned from the banking crisis. Paul Moore, head of group regulatory risk at Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) during 2002–2005, provided evidence of his experience of questioning HBOS policies which resulted in his dismissal from HBOS. The problems that surfaced at HBOS during the financial crisis were so serious that it was forced to merge with Lloyds TSB, another UK bank, to form the Lloyds Banking Group in which the government took a significant stake. Moore’s evidence to the Treasury Committee revealed that long before the financial crisis, he had raised major concerns with the management of HBOS and with the Financial Services Authority (FSA), the UK financial services regulator. Moore’s evidence led to the submission of further disclosures, replies and rejoinders as evidence to the Treasury Committee. Moore’s case is therefore of considerable interest to researchers of whistleblowing because it is a rare instance of high-level whistleblowing, the details of which subsequently entered the public domain. The information revealed in evidence to the Treasury Committee sheds light on the process of whistleblowing in the context of the governance and regulation of a major UK bank that subsequently had to be rescued by government intervention during the financial crisis. The paper makes a contribution to the wider literature on whistleblowing, and to a greater understanding of aspects of the financial crisis.     

Did Investors Herd during the Financial Crisis? Evidence from the US Financial Industry

We examine the herding behavior of investors in the US financial industry, especially commercial banks, S&Ls, investment and insurance firms during global financial crisis of 2008 towards own sub‐sector and market consensus using augmented cross sectional absolute deviation of returns (CSAD) model. After distinguishing between fundamental and non‐fundamental information, we find a greater influence of global financial crisis on spurious herding for commercial and investment banks, and such herding increases in the down market and with conditional volatility of returns, but adverse herding is prevalent among investors during normal period in response to fundamental information. We also find that herding intensity on fundamental information is relatively high with market consensus for all financial institutions except insurance firms in high volatility regime, and intentional herding is only significant and limited to S&Ls and investment banks in high volatility regime. Our findings suggest limited spillover effects of herding when investors face non‐fundamental information.     

Financial market crisis and financial market channel

Before a new financial architecture can be established in the wake of the financial crisis, the increasing importance of the global financial market channel must be fully understood. This importance was illustrated by the unexpectedly strong dampening effects of the financial crisis on the real economy and by the worldwide contagion of the crisis, including its spreading to emerging market economies that were macroeconomically stable. This article argues that the financial sphere is gaining in importance over the real sphere and that the impact of global financial determinants on economic activity is growing ever stronger. The keys to dealing with this change are greater transparency, stronger incentive structures and a stronger regulatory and supervisory framework.     

基于全球经济大系统的金融危机传染机制研究

站在全球经济大系统的高度,分析国际金融危机的实体传染机制、金融传染机制和预期传染机制。为切断危机传染的途径、防范危机传染的发生,应提高实体部门、金融机构和金融市场的抗传染能力,减少市场预期的负面影响,加强国际协调与合作等。     

Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994

This article traces the developments in the market for residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the period 1970–2008. Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, business press, and interviews with practitioners, it shows that an MBS market meltdown in 1994 provided clear signals of problems with MBS. The market participants did not re-evaluate their use of risk management tools or adjust security design in response to the 1994 crisis, suggesting a lack of understanding of the implications of the crisis. The 1994 meltdown showed that MBS were vulnerable to systematic risks and that these risks could precipitate an MBS market crash. Furthermore, the 1994 meltdown demonstrated that large-scale investment in MBS could affect the primary mortgage market, thereby rendering the MBS risks unpredictable. After 1994, MBS investment shifted to MBS backed by mortgages with default risk – a development that led to the crash of 2008. By drawing parallels between the 1994 and 2008 crises, this article shows how the MBS market failed to self-correct. The results suggest that financial market participants do not always incorporate relevant information in their decision-making and that market participants have difficulties in both foreseeing the effect of financial innovations on markets and interpreting these effects.     

Nationale Geldsch?pfung zersetzt den Euroraum

The Eurosystem has been operating in crisis mode for more than four years now. Massive quantitative and qualitative easing in its monetary policy stance are the visible marks of its response to the turbulence in the financial sector. This policy aims primarily at maintaining financial stability in the euro area by providing vast liquidity support to commercial banks that are operating in nationally segmented banking systems. The sovereign debt crises in some member countries further exacerbate the segmentation problem along country borders. As a side effect, cross-border capital flows are substituted by money market operations by the national central banks. The latter are engaging more and more often in substantial balance-of-payments financing, and financial risks are shifted from investors to European taxpayers via the Eurosystem. Symptomatically, this shows up in exploding TARGET2 positions in the national central banks’ balance sheets. The longer this process continues, the stronger the centrifugal forces become that ultimately might burst the single currency. A solution requires a euro area-wide regulatory approach for the financial sector. Next to a uniform scheme for banking regulation, supervision and resolution, we recommend the comprehensive introduction of contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) as a major refinancing source for the banking industry. As this proposal cannot be introduced overnight, national and European banking resolution funds are necessary in the short run. The latter do not rescue banks, but they kick in as soon as a bank’s equity is depleted in order to wind down failing banks in a systemically prudent way.     

The Impact of the Recession on Competition Policy: Amending the Economic Constitution?

The strengths of the European competition regime are outlined before identifying challenges presented by the financial crisis. The argument moves from enforcement to systemic threats to the credibility of the economic models on which modern competition policy is based. It then turns from banking failures to the crisis in the European motor industry. It suggests that competition policy comprises an ‘economic constitution’ for the EU which is under threat, but registers the relative complacency of the competition agencies, and argues for a redefinition of policy. The conclusion suggests that the regulatory relationship between the state and the private sector will reflect scepticism about the market and that political changes in the UK and Europe offer radical choices between a reinforced or a marginalised competition policy which the competition policy ‘community’ needs to confront.     

Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis

This study examines whether the diversity of activities conducted by the banking sector in the years approaching the recent global financial crisis alleviated the adverse impact of the crisis. Using data for 28 industries in 66 countries, we find that bank diversification has strengthened country resilience to the crisis, as measured by industry growth over the period 2008–2009. However, we find that while both bank‐based and market‐based economies have been affected negatively by the crisis, the contribution of bank diversification in mitigating the real impact of the crisis is pronounced only in bank‐based economies. Overall, our findings suggest that countries with significant bank diversification have also been the most resilient to the recent global crisis.     

Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.