A Non‐linear Model of the Trade Cycle: Mathematical Reflections on Hugh Hudson's Classic

Hugh Hudson's classic article on A Model of the Trade Cycle has never, to the best of our knowledge, received the serious attention it deserved. It was written in what we would like to call the classic Hicks‐Kaldor mode, i.e. relying on ingenious diagrammatic techniques for expository purposes, and, indeed, developing an innovative model of the trade cycle where interaction of monetary and real forces were modelled in terms of elements common to the classic nonlinear endogenous models of these two pioneers. In this paper we reconsider the analytical contents of Hudson's classic, and its expository technique, in the light of later, mathematical, approaches to the same topic. It is a clear example of how a mathematical reading and reformulation of an economically motivated geometric method proves fruitful in furthering the frontiers of economic analysis. Our conclusion is that there is still much to be gained in the expository style adopted by Hudson, especially when viewed mathematically; but, more importantly, there are innovative suggestions and still relevant reflections on theorising and understanding actual performances of advanced industrial economies. Above all Hudson's classic is permeated with the policy underpinnings of a rich model of the trade cycle.     

Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence

In this work, we derive a model to investigate the optimal storage policy in metal commodity markets. From an inter-temporal setting, we carry out a criterion driving the stockholding decisions based on Tobin's q rule in which marginal benefits from holding inventories can be compared with marginal storage costs.We estimate the model for the world copper market by taking into account both spot price and convenience yield equations. In our sample, the estimated models are statistically robust and economically coherent with the theory, even though the patterns of the inventory accumulation process show high sensitivity to the uncertainty about worldwide economic conditions.     

Problem-oriented modeling in industrial technology: The steel industry

The development of up-to-date industrial technology and improving efficiency can be achieved by operational control and management and by research and design. These three problems and the corresponding subproblems can be formulated, investigated, and solved on the basis of problem-oriented mathematical models.The general approach to the development of the problem-oriented models has several particular features that depend on the problems to be solved—knowledge and data about the systems to be modeled, demand for model accuracy, type of model solution (off-line or on-line), computer type, and so on.The results of implementing problem-oriented models to improve the efficiency of industrial technology is considered for the case of steelmaking in basic oxygen furnaces (BOF), which is the most widely used technology in the world.The problems that were formulated, the approaches to the development of the mathematical models, and the processes that occur in BOF technology are typical for other different kinds of industrial technology, such as chemicals, the cement industry, atomic reactors, and the glass industry.     

Of clouds and clocks and Keynes: conceptions of reality and the growth of knowledge function of money ∗

In this paper, John Maynard Keynes' General theoryand the concept of money are given an evolutionary interpretation. This interpretation is based on Karl Popper's delightful essay ‘Of clouds and clocks: an approach to the problem of rationality and the freedom of man’. The essay presents two things: Popper's conception of indeterminism and his general theory of abstractions. Popper's general theory concerns the role of abstractions and rule-governed, hierarchical systems of abstractions in structuring an indeterministic and uncertain world. He applies his general theory to science.Popper maintains that science is an abstract, rule-governed, linguistic process that facilitates criticism as a way of learning about our world. Popper calls this the growth of knowledge function of science. Popper's general theory can be applied to Keynes' General theory. Following Popper, I argue for a conception of the economy as a rule-governed, monetary language of commerce that facilitates critically minded inquiry in the domain of ordinary economic transactions. A monetary system facilitates the growth of commonsense knowledge in the economy. I call this the growth of knowledge function of money. An awareness of indeterminism and a growth of knowledge like function of money seem to pervade Keynes' General theory.     

Computing,the bootstrap and economics

A major contention in this paper is that scientific models can be viewed as virtual realities, implemented, or rendered, by mathematical equations or by computer simulations. Their purpose is to help us understand the external reality that they model. In economics, particularly in econometrics, models make use of random elements, so as to provide quantitatively for phenomena that we cannot or do not wish to model explicitly. By varying the realizations of the random elements in a simulation, it is possible to study counterfactual outcomes, which are necessary for any discussion of causality. The bootstrap is virtual reality within an outer reality. The principle of the bootstrap is that, if its virtual reality mimics as closely as possible the reality that contains it, it can be used to study aspects of that outer reality. The idea of bootstrap iteration is explored, and a discrete model discussed that allows investigators to perform iteration to any desired level.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

Innis Lecture: Explorations in medium‐run macroeconomics

Abstract.  Medium‐run macroeconomics refers to aggregate economic phenomena that manifest over periods of 10 to 25 years. This area of research has emerged over the last decade as a new and distinct field of enquiry. In this paper, I overview a set of personal attempts aimed at understanding certain medium‐run phenomena such as: changes in the wage structure, changes in the world distribution of income‐per‐capita, and changes in growth patterns across OECD countries. The goal of the paper is to extract general lessons from these experiences. In particular, I will discuss why models of endogenous technological choice may be a good starting point for studying medium‐run phenomena. JEL classification: E00, O00     

'Let your science be human': Hume's economic methodology

This essay examines David Hume's economic methodology. The authorcharacterises Hume's understanding of human actions as interactionism.Its key point is that interactions generate the disinterestedview of ‘the spectator’ in the human mind. Humeapplies this idea of the disinterested spectator to the positionof social scientists in understanding social phenomena. ThusHume's approach to social science can be regarded as interpretive.The author also points out the difference between Hume's methodin social science and historical study. Considering this difference,the author argues that we should refer to Hume's social theoryrather than historical works in order to understand his economicmethodology.     

伦敦“隐性创新”：知识密集型服务活动在城市创新体系中的作用

伦敦的R&D投入在英国最低,但是创新产出却很高,城市竞争力更是位居世界前列。这一创新悖论从表面上看,可归因于城市创新能力测度指标体系的缺陷,即伦敦存在着未被测度的“隐性创新”;而实质上则反映出人们在评价一个城市的创新能力时,对制造业和服务业两种创新模式的区分认识不足,对服务业特别是知识密集型服务活动在城市创新体系中的隐性创新源头和媒介作用认识不足。基于制造业而不是服务业的创新活动特点来理解和构建一个城市的创新能力,这种认识偏差往往导致城市创新政策不能有的放矢。     

Transcendental vs. comparative approaches to justice: a reappraisal of Sen's dichotomy

In The Idea of Justice, Sen describes two competing approaches to theorising about justice: “transcendental institutionalism”, in which he includes Rawls, and “realisation-focused comparison”, in which he includes Condorcet and himself. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that a comparative approach cannot exist without a transcendental dimension. Contrary to Sen, who claims that a transcendental theory is neither necessary nor sufficient in order to frame comparative judgments, it is shown that a transcendental dimension is a necessary, albeit not sufficient, condition of any comparative approach. To illustrate our thesis, we refer to the works of three great authors: Condorcet, Sen himself and the later Rawls.     

Still unanswered quibbles with fractional reserve free banking

Anthony Evans and Steven Horwitz readily admit that their own understanding of monetary theory is imperfect, and do not even “attempt a rebuttal of [our] claims.” George Selgin accepts that some of the arguments we put forward in Bagus and Howden (2010) make for “interesting theory”. He fails to rebuff our claim that precautionary reserves are unable to constrain credit creation in a fractional reserve free banking system. While calling for us to provide historical evidence to validate the quibbles we put forward, Selgin himself overstates the evidence. He also claims that we have distorted what he has written, and that we use incorrect monetary theory. These allegations are false.     

In what sense,if any,is “economics” distinct from “religion”; And why does it matter?

It matters whether “Economics” is distinct from “Religion” first, because the putative truths of Religion must be more secure than the provisional and fallible truths of Science; secondly, because the scientific claims of Economics would be undermined were they not independent of the religious beliefs of economists; and thirdly, because the contribution of each to public policy formation requires them to be distinct. They are indeed distinct, because Economics is knowledge about the economy whereas Religion is knowledge of God. Knowledge about is intellectual: knowledge of is experiential. The knowledge we may have of God comes by faith, hope and charity: the practice of these can give us no knowledge about interest rates in a capitalist economy.     

Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations

Bio-economic modelling has become a useful tool for anticipating the outcomes of policies and technologies before their implementation. Advances in mathematical programming have made it possible to build more comprehensive models. In an overview of recent studies about bio-economic models applied to land-use problems in agriculture and forestry, we evaluated how aspects such as uncertainty, multiple objective functions, system dynamics and time have been incorporated into models. We found that single objective models were more frequently applied at the farm level, while multiple objective modelling has been applied to meet concerns at the landscape level. Among the objectives, social aspects are seldom represented in all models, when being compared to economic and environmental aspects. The integration of uncertainty is occasionally a topic, while stochastic approaches are more frequently applied than non-stochastic robust methods. Most multiple-objective models do not integrate uncertainty or sequential decision making. Static approaches continue to be more recurrent than truly dynamic models. Even though integrating multiple aspects may enhance our understanding of a system; it involves a tradeoff between complexity and robustness of the results obtained. Land-use models have to address this balance between complexity and robustness in order to evolve towards robust multiple-objective spatial optimization as a prerequisite to achieve sustainability goals.     

SEN ON FREEDOM AND GENDER JUSTICE

Abstract

This comment on the special double issue of Feminist Economics on Amartya Sen's work discusses a number of themes and evaluates certain criticisms and claims in the volume. Sen's work involves a complex differentiation of distinct aspects of freedom. This differentiation is relevant to a number of criticisms. It is particularly helpful in evaluating various claims about Sen's focus on and the adequacy of his account of freedom. The article also considers claims about Sen's neglect of issues relating to interdependence and agency. To the degree that it is argued that some of these claims and criticisms can be addressed within Sen's conceptual framework, this article constitutes a qualified defense of his work. However, it does not claim that Sen's framework addresses all the criticisms that are leveled at it in the volume. Possible themes for future research are also briefly discussed.     

Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis

International tourism is a fast growing industry generating half a trillion dollars in annual revenues and accounting for almost 10%?of total international trade, and almost half of total trade in services. Yet, it has so far failed to receive the attention it deserves from mainstream economics. This paper attempts to provide an initial understanding of the determinants of international tourism. This paper claims that international tourism, as other forms of trade in services, is driven by unique factors of production, and may be better dealt with in a single industry study rather than in a general equilibrium trade model. In order to understand these determinants the world is viewed as a market of differentiated products, and a discrete choice estimation technique is applied to a large three-dimensional data set of tourist flows. It is shown that a relatively simple estimation technique, combined with a rich data set, can deliver reasonable substitution patterns. It is found, among other things, that political risk is very important for tourism, and that exchange rates matter mainly for tourism to developed countries. These have exchange rate elasticity of about one.     

Perfect versus Imperfect Observability—An Experimental Test of Bagwell's Result

In a seminal paper Bagwell ((1995). Games Econom. Behav.8, 271–280) claims that the first mover advantage, i.e., the strategic benefit of committing oneself to an action before others can, vanishes completely if this action is only imperfectly observed by second movers. In our paper we report on an experimental test of this prediction. We implement four versions of a game similar to an example given by Bagwell, each time varying the quality of the signal which informs the second mover. For experienced players we do not find empirical support for Bagwell's result. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C92.     

A Post-Keynesian Response to Piketty's ‘Fundamental Contradiction of Capitalism’

In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty presents a rich set of data that deals with income and wealth distribution, output-wealth dynamics and rates of return. He also proposes some ‘laws of capitalism’. At the core of his argument lies the ‘fundamental inequality of capitalism’, an empirical regularity stating that the rate of return on wealth is greater than the growth rate of the economy. This simple construct allows him to conclude that increasing wealth (and income) inequality is an inevitable outcome of capitalism. While we share some of his conclusions, we will highlight some shortcomings of his approach based on a Cambridge post-Keynesian growth-and-distribution model. The paper makes four points. First, r?>?g is not necessarily associated with increasing inequality in functional distribution. Second, Piketty succumbs to a fallacy of composition when he claims that a necessary condition for r?>?g is that capitalists save a large share of their capital income. Third, post-Keynesians can learn from Piketty's insights about personal income distribution and incorporate them into their models. Fourth, we reiterate the post-Keynesian argument that a well-behaved aggregate production function does not exist and cannot explain income distribution.     

Models as speech acts: the telling case of financial models

This paper intends to bring Austinian themes into methodological discussion about models. Using Austinian conceptual vocabulary, I argue that models perform actions in and outside of the academic field. This multiplicity of fields induces a variety of felicity conditions and types of performed actions. If for example, an inference from a model is judged according to some epistemological criteria in the scientific field, the representation of the world which the model carries will not be judged by the same criteria outside the scientific field. A model can be considered as a standard in a strict scientific framework, while not being used as part of public policies, or vice versa. However, we focus on the dynamics between different fields.     

The return of the smiley face

The iconic, ubiquitous smiley face of the 1960s and 70s represented happiness that could be taken in and felt deeply, even if only for a moment. Today we are in a much different world, one in which the understanding of the value of happiness can seem distant. Talking about "feelings" does not go over well in the board room, in setting workforce management strategies, or in budget discussions. That could all be changing and we may finally be getting the attention of leadership on this long neglected and important topic. The cost and quality implications of an unhappy workforce seem immense. We can keep trying to squeeze more out of our health care workforce or we can invest in their wellbeing and get more out of them.     

Book and Film Reviews

Economic theory as applied to the family should increase our understanding of the phenomena we are studying, and allow us to implement fruitful intervention in cases where we are not satisfied with what is occurring. Much if not all of the theory of the family fails to achieve these aims. Examples are given from the most recent edition of Gary Becker's Theory of the Family, where the analysis leads to conclusions that are, on their face, preposterous. This kind of theorizing leads, as does almost all neoclassical theory, to a conclusion that the institutions depicted are benign, and that government intervention would be useless at best and probably harmful. But it isn't necessarily so.