中国企业生命周期阶段划分及其度量研究

运用财务综合指标法、现金流分类组合法和销售与资本支出曲线趋势变化法,对近年来中国A股上市公司的生命周期进行定量划分。采用第一种方法和第三种方法得出的结果,注重企业财务指标及发展演进时间序列的具体表现,采用的第二种方法则强调划分依据的真实性与所反映企业信息的准确性;通过比较近年来中国市场上基金产品选股与本文的划分结果,发现成长型或价值型的股票基金产品年度持股与三种方法下划分的结果比较吻合,从而验证了三种方法的合理性及可应用性。     

不同目标类型的开放式基金收益率特征分析

本文利用传统的单指数模型和ARCH模型，分析了开放式基金的收益率的统计特征、ARCH效应及与股价指数的关系。实证结果表示开放式基金的收益率基本具备GARCH(1，1)特征，与股价指数有较强的相关性，但不同目标的开放式基金与股指的关系有所差异，说明基金管理公司在选择投资组合上与基金目标较为一致。有超过一半的样本基金的平均收益率低于同期股指收益率，盈利能力不甚理想。     

Is the profitability of Indian stocks compensation for risks?

This paper examines the profitability of the Indian stock market using an extensive new data set that includes 1,515 stocks and covers a time-period spanning 1992 to 2014. Using both the popular Jegadeesh-Titman and the 52-week momentum trading strategies, we discover that portfolios of all stocks and various portfolios of industry stocks are profitable. These profits, we find, disappear once we account for a range of market and macroeconomic factors, suggesting that market and industry profits are compensation for risks. Our results survive a battery of robustness tests.     

Are Sharia stocks,gold and U.S. Treasury hedges and/or safe havens for the oil-based GCC markets?

This study examines whether the Sharia-compliant stocks measured by Dow Jones Islamic World Emerging Market index (DJIWEM), gold and the U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills) can serve as a hedge and/or a safe-haven asset in the six GCC stock markets, by using a vine copula approach. The results show that GCC and global investors can realize both risk diversification benefits and downside risk reductions during tranquil and downturn periods by including gold or DJIWEM in their portfolios but not the T-bills.     

Portfolio concentration and closed-end fund discounts: Evidence from the China market

This paper provides an analysis of the determinants of the closed-end fund discount in Mainland China. We focus on the diversification level of closed-end funds as the investor clienteles for closed-end funds in Mainland China are different from other markets. Our empirical evidence shows that discount is strongly and negatively related to stock concentration as measured by the number of stocks in the fund or Herfindahl index. We also find the discount decreases with the dividend payout and turnover, suggesting that investors are willing to pay a higher price (lower discount) for a fund that pays more dividends and has higher turnover.     

Portfolio Quality and Mutual Fund Performance

This study investigates how the quality of stocks owned by mutual funds affects the performance of those funds during 2000–2009. The quality of a stock is positively related to its size, while quality is inversely related to volatility. Evidently, stocks in the lowest quality decile perform particularly poorly amidst volatile market conditions with a mean monthly Daniel, Grinblatt, Titman and Wermers (DGTW) alpha 1.93% [25.73% per annum (pa)] less than high‐quality stocks. Furthermore, funds which hold the lowest quality stocks exhibit substantial underperformance, particularly during market downturns, with funds in the lowest decile of quality incurring a mean monthly DGTW alpha 0.96% (12.14% pa) lower than their higher quality counterparts. Interestingly, we discover a trend to funds investing in higher quality stocks over time.     

关于中国股票市场上基金重仓股的博弈分析

证券投资基金在我国股票市场中的地位越来越重要,基金重仓的股票越来越受到投资者的关注。通过建立一个二级市场中基金与个人投资者在基金重仓股上的不完全信息动态博弈模型,用于解释基金与个人投资者在股票市场上的投资和投机行为,并根据模型的分析提出促进中国股票市场长期健康、有序发展的建议。     

Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence

This research explores the risk associated with the stocks prices in the seventeen selected companies that are listed in Indian BSE (100) National as well as portfolios of investment that are constructed from these seventeen companies employed. Additionally, for considering the possibility of international diversification, construction of portfolios of investment form stock price indexes in various emerging markets and developed countries of the world is considered. Correlations for domestically as well as internationally diversified portfolios are computed to unveil the relationship between stock prices of various firms as well as domestic and internationally diversified portfolios of investments. Further, to understand the effect of diversification on the risk associated with each of the portfolios of investments employed, value at risk analysis (VaR) is undertaken for studying the benefits associated with domestic as well as international diversification (if any).The study results show that domestic diversification lowers the expected losses associated with each of the domestic portfolios of investment employed where the international diversification substantially mitigates the portfolio risks. Results from VaR analysis reveal that diversification lowers the portfolio risks and additional reduction in portfolio risks is realized by international diversification.     

Does it Really Hurt to be Responsible?

Prior literature on socially responsible investment has contended that excluding “sin stocks” from a portfolio (negative screening) will reduce performance and increase risk. Further, incorporating stocks of firms with positive social responsibility scores (positive screening) will improve performance and reduce risk. We simulate portfolios designed to mimic typical equity mutual funds’ holdings and investigate these propositions. We remove the potentially confounding influences of differences in manager skill, transaction costs and fees, and conduct a clean experiment on the effect of positive and negative portfolio screening. We find no difference in the return or risk of screened and unscreened portfolios. We conclude that a typical socially responsible fund will neither gain nor lose from screening its portfolio.     

How does the volatility-timing strategy perform in mutual funds portfolios

Literature suggests that a volatility-timing strategy improves the performance of factor portfolios in the stock market and currency carry trade. This paper shows that the performance of this strategy is mixed when applied to mutual fund portfolios. More specifically, its performance not only depends on the investment style of the mutual funds but also the time periods when it is applied.     

机构投资者的交易行为研究:来自中国台湾股市的证据

文章以中国台湾股市为研究对象,主要研究机构投资者的交易行为。文章构建了机构投资者交易不平衡性指标——净交易,在此基础上研究机构投资者的交易行为。研究结果表明:台湾股票市场中以外资和投信基金为代表的金融机构投资者表现为正反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量较高;一般法人的交易表现为负反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量不足;而自营商由于交易动机复杂,交易的信息含量不明确。可见不同的机构投资者的交易行为并不相同。     

The separation of ownership from control and investment performance

There is much evidence of a growing separation of corporate ownership from its control by management. This paper compares the performance of several diversified portfolios containing a total of 199 industrial corporations' common stocks in which the class of a given portfolio's stocks is a range of percentage of the total voting stock held by management. This is a test of stock market performance with respect to public information on the relative separation of ownership from control.Performance measures from a naive arbitrage model that is an adaptation of a simplified market model showed that stock market performance was independent of the relative separation of ownership from control over the 1964–1973 period.     

What is the value of corporate sponsorship in sports?

This paper investigates the stock market reaction to investor mood swings resulting from the Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket matches. We find that stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) that sponsor the IPL cricket are unaffected by the cricket matches. This finding is robust along two lines: (a) the effect is insignificant both statistically and economically which we demonstrate using a simple trading strategy; and (b) results hold across a wide range of portfolios. Our results, both statistical and trading strategy-based, suggest that the portfolios of companies that sponsor cricket in India are efficient. Our findings stand in sharp contrast to the evidence obtained by the broader sports literature suggesting that sports actually impact stock returns, driven principally by psychological factors.     

Capital market integration : Some evidence from foreign-controlled securities

Differential taxation of dividends received from Canadian stocks between Canadian and foreign investors and possible differential orientation towards market portfolios points out the fact that foreign-controlled Canadian stocks exhibit a relatively weak relationship with the Canadian market index, while stocks that are predominantly held by Canadians comply more closely to a Canadian version of the CAMP. The article sheds additional light on international capital market integration.     

The Roles of Gender and Marital Status on Risky Asset Allocation Decisions

We analyze data on asset allocations in individual retirement accounts to examine the roles of marital status and gender on investment decisions. We utilize data from two birth cohorts to understand the relationship over a wide age range. We find that, in their 30s and early 40s, men are more likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks in individual retirement accounts compared to women. The gender difference disappears around retirement age; however, a significant difference by marital status emerges in that age group. Divorced and widowed individuals are less likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks compared to married individuals in their 60s. While there exists a positive gap in stock holdings between married men and married women in their 30s, the gender gap is nonexistent among older individuals. Using paired data on stock holdings in the older birth cohort, we show that husbands' and wives' asset allocations in individual retirement accounts are strongly correlated, coinciding with the lack of a gender gap in stock holdings among older couples.     

中国养老保险制度的困境与发展对策

中国养老保险制度的改革滞后于经济与政治体制改革。主要体现在保险的覆盖面 ,基金的征集、管理、运营等方面 ,对养老保险的可持续发展构成了严重的障碍。根据我国的国情及经济发展状况 ,在廓清理论框架的前提下 ,加大个人帐户的比重 ,提高养老基金的运作效率 ,在此基础上扩大养老保险的覆盖范围 ,使养老保险系统在我国经济与政治生活中发挥其应有作用     

Managed commodity funds

The performance of managed commodity fund investments during the years l982 through 1996 is examined, both as stand-alone investments and as assets in diversified stock and bond portfolios. Nine stylized commodity fund investments are examined: randomly-selected, single-CTAs, pool, and fund portfolios; equally weighted market portfolios (EWMPs) of CTAs, pools, and funds; and value-weighted portfolios (VWMP) of CTAs, pools, and funds. Further, two subperiods are examined: 1982–1988 and 1989–1996. Based on an analysis using Sharpe ratios as the performance criterion, several types of managed commodity funds make both good stand-alone investments and good portfolio assets; an EWMP of CTAs and a VWMP of pools receive the highest ranking among the alternative commodity fund investments. It is also shown that commodity indexes are not a substitute for a managed commodity fund investment. A number of issues warrant further study: Can investors still earn consistently attractive risk-adjusted returns on managed commodity fund investments if they do not hold diversified portfolios of CTAs and pools? Also: How can such high speculative returns be earned in efficient commodity markets? And: Are CTA and pool returns high because commodity fund managers have superior trading skill? An important issue for future research is to determine whether in fact CTAs do possess such skill. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 377–411, 1999     

Tick sizes and relative rates of price discovery in stock,futures, and options markets: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange

This study examines the competition in price discovery among stock index, index futures, and index options in Taiwan. The price‐discovery ability of the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund, an exchange‐traded fund based on the Taiwan 50 index is examined. The authors find that, after the minimum tick size in the stock market decreases, the bid–ask spreads of the component stocks of the stock index and the Taiwan Top 50 Tracker Fund get lower, and the contribution of the spot market to price discovery increases. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:74–93, 2009     

The Business Cycle and Profitability of Trading Strategies

Recent studies show that investor participation in the stock market rises during economic expansion and drops in economic recession. When investor participation is high, investors’ cognitive and behavioral biases are likely to have a strong influence on stock prices. We consider four trading strategies that are based on well-known market anomalies and examine their profitability under different economic conditions. For all four strategies, the portfolios that are formed in the months when the economy is expanding obtain significant profits, whereas the portfolios formed in economic recession months are not profitable. This finding is robust to different ways of classifying recession months.     

Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

We demonstrate that arbitrage risk, constructed using three measures — noise trader risk, trading cost and information uncertainty — can predict the return of stocks cross-sectionally in China. The findings are broadly consistent even when out-of-sample tests are conducted using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression approach. We also construct hypothetical portfolios using the information arising from arbitrage risk and find the existence of abnormal returns which is robust to the use of various portfolios constructed by re-sampling the observations through multiple approaches (e.g., by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratio). Lastly, we reconstruct our portfolios by considering the unique nature of the Chinese stock market (e.g., the dominance of individual investors). Our trading strategies again successfully obtain abnormal returns, suggesting that arbitrage risk can be useful to construct effective investment portfolios in China.