The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective

Using detailed data on loan applications and decisions for a large sample of manufacturing firms in Italy during the recent financial crisis, we find that the credit crunch has been harsher in provinces with a large share of branches owned by distantly managed banks. Inconsistent with a flight to quality we do not find evidence that economically weaker firms suffered more during the crisis. In contrast, we find that financially healthier firms were affected more in functionally distant credit markets than in markets populated by less distant banks, consistent with a home bias on the part of nationwide banks.     

Corporate investment during the financial crisis: Evidence from China

China's growth model suggests that the 2008 financial crisis may have affected the Chinese economy differently from what one observes in mature market economies. In this paper, we examine how Chinese corporate investment responded to the financial crisis by using 1689 listed nonfinancial firms during Q12006–Q32010. We document that (1) the overall impact of the financial crisis on Chinese corporate investment is negative; (2) among three channels conveying the effect of the financial crisis, namely, the demand channel, the financial constraints channel, and the uncertainty channel, the demand channel dominates; (3) financial assets held by a nonfinancial firm are important in explaining the firm's fixed investment behaviour; (4) as compared to non-state firms, state-controlled firms are less affected by the financial crisis and more active in engaging in financial assets investment; and (5) foreign ownership can be seen as a buffer against the negative effect of the financial crisis and foreign-involved Chinese firms are less active in financial assets investment as compared to domestic firms.     

融资约束与中国企业的进口行为

本文采用贸易四元边际的分析框架,实证分析了融资约束对企业进口行为的影响,并对比了非金融危机、金融危机背景下融资约束对企业进口行为影响的差异性。主要发现:(1)融资约束对企业进口决策存在显著的抑制作用,融资约束会显著抑制企业的进口行为,包括进口规模、进口来源国数量、进口产品种类。(2)相对于外资企业,内资企业的进口行为更容易受融资约束的影响;相对于一般贸易,企业的加工贸易进口更容易受融资约束的影响;相对于只进口的企业,同时具有进口和出口行为的企业更容易受到融资约束的影响。另外,不同行业的企业、不同地区的企业受融资约束的影响也具有较大的差异。(3)不同的外部金融环境导致融资约束对企业进口行为的影响存在显著差异。金融危机导致企业的进口行为对融资约束表现出更强的敏感性,高融资约束企业与低融资约束企业在进口四元边际上的差距被进一步拉大。     

The debt market relevance of management earnings forecasts: evidence from before and during the credit crisis

We investigate the credit market’s response via changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads to management earnings forecasts and evaluate the importance of these forecasts relative to earnings news during the periods before and during the recent credit crisis. We document that credit markets react significantly to management forecast news and that the reactions to forecast news are stronger than to actual earnings news. Consistent with the asymmetric payoffs to debt holders, the forecast news is mainly relevant for firms with poor credit rating or announcing bad news. We also show that the relevance of management forecasts to credit markets is particularly strong during periods of high uncertainty, as experienced during the recent credit crisis.     

Trade Credit,the Financial Crisis,and SME Access to Finance

Mounting evidence indicates that firms, particularly SMEs, suffered from a significant credit crunch during this crisis. We analyze for the first time whether trade credit provided an alternative source of external finance to SMEs during the crisis. Using firm‐level Spanish data we find that credit constrained SMEs depend on trade credit, but not bank loans, and that the intensity of this dependence increased during the financial crisis. Unconstrained firms, in contrast, are dependent on bank loans but not on trade credit.     

The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions

We examine the impact of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and cash flow per share (CPS) forecast revisions on the market for credit default swaps. We find that while the issuance of both EPS and CPS forecast revisions are inversely associated with changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads, cash flow forecast revisions have a larger effect. We demonstrate that the relationship between CPS forecast revisions and CDS spreads tends to be stronger in cases of financial distress. We provide evidence that cash flow forecasts dominate earnings forecasts in some situations and that participants in the CDS market discriminate between analysts' forecast revisions and recommendation changes.     

Financial development,bank discrimination and trade credit

Non-state owned firms in China grow tremendously with limited support from banks. This provides a unique setting to test how firms in a country with poorly developed financial institutions fund their prosperous growth opportunities. This paper compares the use of an important non-formal financial channel, trade credit, between state and non-state owned firms in China. We find that, compared to state owned firms, non-state owned firms use more trade credit. We further show that this higher usage is primarily for financing rather than transactional purposes. The results suggest that, in a country with a poorly developed formal financial sector, firms can support their growth through non-formal financial channels that largely rely on implicit contractual relation.     

Did family firms perform better during the financial crisis? New insights from the S&P 500 firms

This paper provides new evidence on whether family firms performed better during the global financial crisis (2008–2010). Using the dataset of the S&P 500 nonfinancial firms during the period 2006–2010, we find that family firms outperformed nonfamily firms during the crisis. Among family firms, the ones that contributed to the outperformance were those where the founder was still present. We also find that during the global financial crisis, founder firms invested significantly less and had better access to the credit market than nonfamily firms. Our analysis suggests that the superior performance of founder firms is largely caused by their having less incentive to overinvest in order to boost short-term earnings during the crisis.     

Information efficiency of the U.S. credit default swap market: Evidence from earnings surprises

The credit default swap (CDS) market attracted much debate during the 2008 financial crisis. Opponents of CDS argue that CDS could lead to financial instability as it allows speculators to bet against companies and make the crisis worse. Proponents of CDS believe that CDS could increase market competition and benefit hedging activities. Moreover, an efficient CDS market can serve as a barometer to regulators and investors regarding the credit health of the underlying reference entity. We investigate information efficiency of the U.S. CDS market using evidence from earnings surprises. Our findings confirm that negative earnings surprises are well anticipated in the CDS market in the month prior to the announcement, with both economically and statistically stronger reactions for speculative-grade firms than for investment-grade firms. On the announcement day, for both positive and negative earnings surprises, the CDS spread for speculative-grade firms presents abnormal changes. Moreover, there is no post-earnings announcement drift in the CDS market, which is in direct contrast to the well-documented post-earnings drift in the stock market. Our evidence supports the efficiency of the CDS market.     

Comparative advantages of regional versus national banks in alleviating SME's financial constraints

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of local banking market structure on SME's access to credit and emphasize the comparative advantages of regional versus national banks in alleviating SME's financial constraints. Matching a unique dataset on bank branch-level and firm-level information for a sample of 33,165 French manufacturing firms over the 2005–2013 period, we rely on two alternative indicators to capture different dimensions of SMEs financial constraints and find significant differences in the drivers of these constraints. While higher market share of regional banks or stronger presence of geographically-focused banks helps to alleviate SMEs' short-term credit constraint, higher market share of national banks or stronger presence of geographically-diversified banks is beneficial to reduce SMEs investment cash-flow sensitivity. Moreover, in both cases, SMEs' financial constraints are strengthened in functionally-distant markets. In addition, during crisis times, the benefits of relationship banking on short-term credit constraint remain and, in some cases, are reinforced. We also find that these benefits differ according to SMEs pre-crisis financial health. Regional banks facilitate access to short term credit for firms which were more profitable before the global financial crisis and particularly those who experienced a sharp decline in profitability in troubled times, supporting the hypothesis of continuation lending by relationship banks during economic downturns.     

Financial flexibility,corporate investment and performance: evidence from financial crises

This study examines the impact of financial flexibility on the investment and performance of East Asian firms over the period 1994–2009. We employ a sample of 1,068 firms and place particular emphasis on the periods of the Asian crisis (1997–1998) and the recent credit crisis (2007–2009). The results show that firms can attain financial flexibility, primarily through conservative leverage policies and less commonly by holding large cash balances. Financial flexibility appears to be an important determinant of investment and performance, mainly during the Asian 1997–1998 crisis. In particular, firms that are financially flexible prior to this crisis (1) have a greater ability to take investment opportunities, (2) rely much less on the availability of internal funds to invest, and (3) perform better than less flexible firms during the crisis. Our analysis covering the credit crisis period of 2007–2009 suggests that some of the advantages of flexible firms towards investing persist but are significantly less pronounced over that period. We also find that the value of financial flexibility is region/country specific, which may be explained by the fact that different regions/countries often adopt different macroeconomic policies and operate in diverse economic/legal environments.     

Do firms use the trade credit channel to manage growth?

While many theories of accounts payable and receivable are related to firm performance, there has not been a direct test whether firms actively use them to manage their growth. We argue that it is not just the accounts payable but also the accounts receivable that matter. While the former help to alleviate imperfections in the financial market, the latter do so in the product market. Using over 2.5 million observations for 600.000 firms in 8 euro area countries in the period 1993–2009, we show that firms use the trade credit channel to manage growth. In countries where the trade credit channel is more present, the marginal impact is lower, but the total impact is still higher. Further, firms that are more vulnerable to financial market imperfections, rely more on the trade credit channel to manage growth. Finally, we show that also the overall conditions of the financial market matter for the importance of the trade credit channel for growth.     

Trade credit and company performance during the 2008 financial crisis

We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis had an impact on companies’ trade credit, and whether changes in trade credit mitigated the crisis’s impact on firm profitability. We document that the availability of trade credit decreased, and that this decline is more pronounced, the higher the companies’ pre‐crisis reliance on short‐term debt. We further report evidence that the redistribution hypothesis holds during crisis periods. Finally, we show that the crisis had a negative impact on company performance, but that this impact was lower (greater) for firms that report an increase in trade receivables (payables) in crisis compared to pre‐crisis periods.     

Credit Contagion Channels: Market Microstructure Evidence from Lehman Brothers’ Bankruptcy

Immediately after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, many firms disclosed their financial exposure (or lack thereof) to Lehman. This offers a clean setting to test two credit contagion channels through which a financial firm's bankruptcy can affect other firms—“counterparty risk” and “information transmission” channels. Using market microstructure variables to measure the various dimensions of contagion effects, we provide robust evidence supporting the significance of counterparty risk. Firms with exposure to Lehman suffered more severe negative effects—wider bid‐ask spread, higher price impact, greater information asymmetry, and greater selling pressure—than unexposed firms. We find mixed evidence regarding the information transmission hypothesis.     

Sovereign stress and SMEs’ access to finance: Evidence from the ECB's SAFE survey

We study the effect of sovereign stress on SMEs’ capital structure using restricted-access data from the European Central Bank. We find that during the sovereign debt crisis, and controlling for borrowers’ quality, firms in stressed countries became more likely to be denied credit, to be credit rationed, and to face higher loan rates. Less creditworthy firms were not more likely to become credit constrained, suggesting no flight to quality in lending. We also find that in order to make up for the decline in bank credit firms in stressed countries began relying considerably more on retained earnings and government subsidies.     

The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers

We provide causal evidence that adverse capital shocks to banks affect their borrowers’ performance negatively. We use an exogenous shock to the U.S. banking system during the Russian crisis of Fall 1998 to separate the effect of borrowers’ demand of credit from the supply of credit by the banks. Firms that primarily relied on banks for capital suffered larger valuation losses during this period and subsequently experienced a higher decline in their capital expenditure and profitability as compared to firms that had access to the public-debt market. Consistent with an adverse shock to the supply of credit, crisis-affected banks decreased the quantity of their lending and increased loan interest rates in the post-crisis period significantly more than the unaffected banks. Our results suggest that the global integration of the financial sector can contribute to the propagation of financial shocks from one economy to another through the banking channel.     

Does internationalisation increase exchange rate exposure? -Evidence from Chinese financial firms

This study investigates both the symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures of Chinese financial firms in the context of an accelerated pace of RMB internationalisation. We find that an increasing number of Chinese financial firms are exposed to negative symmetric effects from the change in the trade weighted effective exchange rate. The evidence concerning asymmetries shows that after 2009 negative exchange rate shocks (a weaker RMB) have a stronger effect on exposures than positive shocks (a stronger RMB). Changes in the bilateral exchange rate also have a significant impact on firm returns, given the importance of the USD in the effective exchange rate. Further, the empirical analysis reveals that exchange rate exposures are associated with firm level characteristics including total assets, earnings per share, net cash flows, investment incomes, total liabilities and firm size. Finally, we suggest that domestic and foreign stakeholders need to pay close attention to the movement of the Yuan's exchange rate before it becomes completely convertible.     

CFO gender and earnings management: evidence from China

We study the effect of chief financial officer (CFO) gender on earnings management (EM) in China’s listed firms from 1999 to 2011. In the cross-sectional analysis, we find that female CFO firm-years exhibit significantly lower discretionary accruals, lower total accruals, lower abnormal production costs, and higher abnormal discretionary expenditures, than the male CFO firm-years. We further examine the relation between CFO gender and EM surrounding CFO transitions. We find that the departing male CFOs are more aggressive than the departing female CFOs in managing up earnings during their last year with the firm and the newly appointed male CFOs are more aggressive than the new female CFOs in managing down earnings during their first year on the job. The evidence surrounding CFO transitions suggests that male CFOs are more aggressive than female CFOs in manipulating earnings, either in the last attempt to save their jobs or to take bigger credit for any future performance gains. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that female CFOs engage in less EM and are more conservative in financial reporting than their male counterparts.     

Value relevance of earnings,book value and dividends in an emerging capital market: Kuwait evidence

This study examines the value relevance of book value, earnings and dividends for a sample of all non-financial firms listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2003–2009. After controlling for the impact of the global financial crisis, empirical results provide evidence on the value relevance of book value and earnings in the KSE. The results indicate that dividends are not a value-relevant in the presence of earnings in the valuation model. However, when dividends are used as a substitute for earnings they become value-relevant. The explanatory power of the model including both book value and earnings is almost indistinguishable from that of book value and dividends. Furthermore, splitting earnings into dividends declared (or paid) and earnings retained results in each of the two variables becoming value-relevant. The average dividend pay-out ratio tends to increase over time, indicating that dividend policies do matter in the KSE and that dividends in Kuwait are used to boost investors' confidence and support share price, noticeably during the global financial crisis period.     

The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis

We survey 1,050 Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) in the U.S., Europe, and Asia to directly assess whether their firms are credit constrained during the global financial crisis of 2008. We study whether corporate spending plans differ conditional on this survey-based measure of financial constraint. Our evidence indicates that constrained firms planned deeper cuts in tech spending, employment, and capital spending. Constrained firms also burned through more cash, drew more heavily on lines of credit for fear banks would restrict access in the future, and sold more assets to fund their operations. We also find that the inability to borrow externally caused many firms to bypass attractive investment opportunities, with 86% of constrained U.S. CFOs saying their investment in attractive projects was restricted during the credit crisis of 2008. More than half of the respondents said they canceled or postponed their planned investments. Our results also hold in Europe and Asia, and in many cases are stronger in those economies. Our analysis adds to the portfolio of approaches and knowledge about the impact of credit constraints on real firm behavior.