我国石油行业需求影响因素动态计量分析

石油加工及炼焦业、化学原料及化学制品制造业这两个下游行业带给石油行业正向的冲击力度较大,而交通运输设备制造业、化学纤维制造业带给石油行业正向的冲击力度比较小;化学原料及化学制品制造业对石油行业的贡献率最大且逐渐递增;石油加工及炼焦业对石油行业的贡献率也比较大,并逐渐趋于平稳;化学纤维制造业对石油行业的贡献率比较小;交通运输设备制造业对石油行业的贡献率最小。因此,应根据各下游产业的产品需求变化情况制定产业政策和产业规划,调整石油行业的产业结构。     

社会医疗保险与商业医疗保险的互动研究——以再保险为实现途径的视角

社会保障由以国家为主体的社会保障和以商业公司为主体的商业保障构成,但由于保障水平、运行模式、执行主体、管理模式等不同导致二者都出现了自身难以克服的弊端.本文从医疗保险方面人手,着眼于再保险在社会医疗保险和商业医疗保险方面的探索,进而研究如何通过再保险达到社会医疗保险与商业医疗保险互动双赢的局面.     

An alternative method to estimate parameters in modelling the behaviour of commodity prices

Measuring the risk of investment projects involving commodities and modelling its price dynamics behaviour is usually implemented with Kalman filtering techniques. However, because the use of these techniques has high implementation requirements, recent literature has employed approximate models. This paper proposes a new and simpler spreadsheet implementation procedure which presents lower implementation requirements than the widely used Kalman filtering estimation procedure. The proposal needs to estimate fewer parameters than usual and does not directly estimate sequences but considers the relationship between the states implicitly when defining the regression matrices. This translates into a significant reduction in processing time. We apply the proposal to estimate the parameters of a 4-factor model for four commercial commodities: crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline and natural gas; we then compare the accuracy with results using the Kalman filter method. Results indicate that error measurements are approximately equal for the actual model and the approximation proposed in this paper, for both the in- and out-of-sample data-sets.     

山东省金融稳定报告(2008)摘要

2008年,山东省区域经济呈前高后低走势,上半年经济高位运行,下半年在经济周期调整压力和国际金融危机冲击下,各项指标渐次回落。但总体看,由于国家宏观调控政策果断调整,有力发挥了反向调节效应,金融体系在支持经济发展、结构优化和增长方式转变等方面发挥了积极作用。银行业体现出较强的抗风险能力,证券、保险业起伏明显,金融基础设施的支撑作用进一步突显。下一阶段区域金融稳定状况主要取决于各地贯彻落实宏观政策措施的及时性、有效性和长效性,尤其有赖于能否尽快扭转经济下行态势。在不确定性增多的环境下,金融管理部门和金融机构须倾力协作,坚持改革创新,努力捕捉"化危为机"的契机;积极健全风险防范化解机制,在逆境中谋求进取发展。     

Arbitrage-Free Valuation of Exhaustible Resource Firms

We provide an arbitrage-free valuation of exhaustible resource firms through extending the Gibson and Schwartz (1990) model and also the Jamshidian and Fein (1990) solution to valuing an entire petroleum firm based on quoted oil futures. Our solutions are compared to accounting, traditional finance and to stockmarket valuations on a daily basis. An alternative expression of the valuations relative to stockmarket prices is in terms of the time varying implied 'market price' of convenience yield risk. Initial illustrations show that the implied convenience yield risk is not necessarily consistent between stockmarket and derivative market participants. Finally, we calculate the sensitivities of petroleum firm values to changes in oil prices, the convenience yield observable on NYMEX, and oil price volatilities. These partial derivatives show some of the complexities in the dynamic hedging process of using the contingent claims approach to valuing (and hedging) real assets.     

Has Petroleum Pricing Reform in China Achieved Its Objective? An Empirical Study

China’s petroleum pricing reform has started since 1998 and is still ongoing. It has a profound impact on China’s oil market and even global oil market. We quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the reform on two key issues. Has the pricing reform strengthened the linkage between the international crude market and China’s petroleum products market? Has the pricing reform magnified shocks to the international crude market on China’s economy? Our results show that the reform has strengthened the relationship between China’s petroleum prices and international crude price without negative influence on China’s economy, but the effect of China’s petroleum prices on international crude price is still limited. Furthermore, the reform helps the Chinese government reduce oil subsidies.     

关于住房公积金沉淀资金管理模式的探讨

目前全国住房公积金沉淀资金规模较大,本文对沉淀资金分散管理模式的利弊进行了分析,能。科学有效地管好沉淀资金的重要性日益凸现。并设计了沉淀资金集中管理的模式,探讨了其功     

INFLATION MEASUREMENT,INFLATION RISK,AND THE PRICING OF TREASURY BILLS

One explanation for the high real interest rates on Treasury bills during the period from 1980 to 1985 is that the risk premium had risen. A procedure for testing this hypothesis is to apply the Black version of the capital asset pricing model to real Treasury bill returns. This paper examines that procedure in detail. The main conclusion is that nonstationarity and measurement error, which are always impediments to empirical implementation of the CAPM, are particularly difficult to handle when estimating changes in Treasury bill risk premiums. Furthermore, the behavior of the premium depends on the index used to measure inflation.     

How to classify failures when collecting data for safety-instrumented systems in the oil and gas industry

The oil and gas industry places a high value on achieving high reliability and availability on safety critical equipment. To achieve this, assessments of the reliability performances of such equipment are required, both before and during the production phase. The fact that the reliability data available to support the assessments is often sparse or insufficiently detailed presents a challenge. These assessments also typically require insights into the system in which the equipment is used and information about failure detection. However, this ensemble information is often difficult to achieve in the way the data are collected today. As a response to this challenge, one suggested option is to collect reliability data using one acknowledged failure mode classification specifically designed to assess the reliability of safety-instrumented systems. This is a classification adopted from the International Electrotechnical Commission standard 61508. In this article, we discuss the pros and cons of adopting this failure mode classification in generic reliability data collection in the oil and gas industry. One argument discussed is that the data may lack relevant information about the associated safety system and thus be valid for a specific system only, not for generic equipment and systems in general. Hence, should the classification be implemented, the collected data should be used with care.     

大规模定制下模块制造网络中企业合作赢利模型研究

在介绍大规模定制模块制造网络生产及其特征的基础上,对模块制造网络中企业之间的关系进行了深入探究,构建了企业合作赢利模型.通过对该模型的分析验证,指出了模块制造网络中企业与企业之间的行为是相互影响相互制约的,双方可以通过长期合作机制未规避机会主叉行为,从而得出了模块制造网络模式是保证大规模定制生产模式顺利实施的最佳组织形式的结论.     

人民币跨境流动风险及管理

伴随我国人民币国际化进程的快速推进,人民币跨境收支规模成倍快速增长,人民币产品结构不断丰富,资金汇划途径和范围迅速扩大。其快速发展将降低我国外贸企业汇兑成本、增加人民币铸币税收益,并有效增强我国金融系统抵御风险的能力。但任何事物都具有两面性,在获得收益的同时,跨境贸易结算风险,宏观政策非独立性,汇率波动产生套利风险日益突显。因此,明晰人民币跨境流动风险,进而采取相应的政策措施趋利避害,对推动人民币跨境使用至关重要。     

论机动车保险中高风险车辆的风险管理

高风险车辆赔付率的高低对机动车保险业务的经营效益有极大的影响,是保险公司风险管理的重点。按照风险管理的基本原理,保险公司应从风险规避、风险转移和风险控制三个方面着手,采取适当措施,加强对高风险车辆的风险管理,降低赔付率,保证业务的稳定性。不仅如此,由于风险具有可变性,实施风险管理不能一成不变,必须根据风险变化的情形随时加以调整和修改,按照科学的程序进行。     

Intra-industry transfer effects of credit risk news: Rated versus unrated rivals

We examine the information transfer effect of bond-rating adjustments on industry rivals. Our research is based on the premise that the transfer effect is influenced by the rated status of rivals, i.e., whether the rival’s debt is rated by any credit rating agency. The results reveal that credit rating adjustments induce different/stronger effects. First, the intra-industry transfer effects (on returns and risk) are stronger on rated rivals than on unrated rivals. Second, the credit risk news produces lower co-movements between the returns of the two types of rivals. Third, the differential effect is stronger in the manufacturing industry, in the riskiest industries and in the industries with the lowest competition levels. Interestingly, our results suggest that credit rating news is more relevant for rivals with access to the public debt market (such as re-rated firms) than for rivals that focus on other sources of funding.     

How (not) to talk about the uncertain: siting geological disposal for highly radioactive waste in the Czech Republic

There is an ongoing controversy in the Czech Republic over where to site a deep geological repository for the country’s radioactive waste. Recently, the negotiations between municipalities and state authorities responsible for radioactive waste management experienced a sharp turn: after several years of dialogue guaranteed by the promise of the state authorities not to start site investigations at preselected sites without the consent of affected municipalities, the state authorities suddenly decided not to keep this promise, and to start site investigations without the municipalities’ consent, saying that time for dialogue will come after the site investigations will have been completed. This article explores the period of the failed dialogue with respect to how risks and uncertainties were treated in the negotiations. Drawing on two strands of scholarship on risk and uncertainty, the risk governance school and the STS perspectives on sociotechnical controversies, two paradigms for dealing with risk and uncertainty are outlined. These are used as a framework to analyse how implementers and local stakeholders articulated possible risk or uncertainty issues in negotiations about the Czech geological disposal between 2009 and 2013. The analysis shows that whereas the implementers adopt (sometimes even an extreme version of) the risk-based paradigm, the positions of the local stakeholders seem to be mixed. These observations lead to two conclusions: first, at the theoretical level, perhaps some of the STS literature was too quick to assume that people ‘want’ uncertainty. Second, at the practical level, it is suggested that in the light of the failed dialogue, it might be worth for the implementers to take a lesson from the uncertainty-based paradigm, and consider the possibility that perhaps still more work needs to be done in order to turn uncertainty into risk.     

对城市商业银行实施新资本管理办法的调查思考

《商业银行资本管理办法（试行）》（以下简称《资本办法》）正式实施一年多来,深刻影响了我国银行业的经营发展。而实施新资本管理办法是一项复杂的系统工程,相比较大型银行而言,城市商业银行实施基础相对薄弱,面临的挑战更多、困难更大,需要主动转变传统粗放的经营理念和模式,搭建全面风险管理框架,真正实现经营转型。     

The effects of firm actions on customers’ responses to product recall crises: analyzing an automobile recall in China

In times of product-harm crises, the involved firms always employ some countermeasures, such as releasing messages relevant to their response actions. To evaluate the influence of these messages on the perceptions and behavioral responses of corporate customers relative to the recalls, we conducted a case study of the Volkswagen automobile recall in China in 2013. Guided by the protective action decision model, we developed a conceptual model to first study customers’ responses to the recall crisis. Based on this model, we further examined the influence of two types of firm actions, namely technical and ceremonial, on the customer crisis-coping process. Results show that product experience, risk perception, and information seeking significantly influence customers’ behavioral intentions during the product recall crisis. Customers in the technical action group exhibit a higher level of risk perception based on their product experience and have a higher likelihood of seeking information. However, information seeking fails to influence their behavioral intentions. Ceremonial actions overcome the disadvantages of technical actions, but customers’ lack of solution information should be met. In this sense, crisis-involved firms are encouraged to employ a combination strategy including the implementation of the two types of firm actions and then promptly release the messages containing both actions.     

企业金融化、产品市场竞争与企业创新

本文以2012—2018年我国A股制造业上市公司为样本,考察企业金融化、产品市场竞争与企业创新三者之间的关系。结果发现:制造业企业金融化对企业创新存在显著的挤出效应;产品市场竞争对企业创新有着显著的促进作用,而且当其他条件不变时,产品市场竞争负向调节企业金融化与企业创新的关系。进一步分析发现,在非国有企业组以及国有企业组中,产品市场竞争对企业金融化与企业创新关系的调节作用均显著,但国有企业中产品市场竞争的调节作用更强。     

Adoption and benefits of management accounting practices: Evidence from Greece and Finland

This study investigates the extent to which large-size Greek manufacturing firms have implemented various traditional and currently developed management accounting practices (MAP), the benefits received from those practices and the intentions to focus on specific practices in the future. The findings indicate, that, implementation rates for many currently-developed practices were of a high level and similar than those presented in other countries, in total, traditionally MAP were found to be marginally higher implemented than the currently developed ones. However, there is an increasing trend for firms to place greater emphasis in the future on currently developed techniques instead the traditional ones, particularly on performance evaluation techniques. The results of this survey are compared to the findings of a similar study in Finland.     

区域货物进出口对经济增长影响的实证分析:湖南案例

运用湖南样本数据进行总量实证,结果表明:货物进出口贸易对经济增长的拉动作用不大,增量实证结果表明这种作用不稳定,以上两种实证均说明货物进口的作用大于出口,结构分析则进一步说明贸易产品结构、贸易方式单一等特点.     

Risk and safety in large-scale socio-technological (military) systems: a literature review

Contemporary military practice relies more and more on technology and its artefacts and seem to have become, thereby, large-scale socio-technological systems; systems in which the social and the technological are closely tied together. An important issue in these kinds of systems, especially military ones, is how to safely use this technology. This paper reviews the literature for research on risk and safety in large-scale socio-technological systems for their ability to account for the complex dynamics from which safety in these kinds of systems tends to emerge – or not. After this, it evaluates some current accounts of risk and safety in the military specifically, so as to assess the ‘status’ – or analytical strength – of accounts of risk and safety in this domain. More rigour is needed in evaluations of risk and safety of technology in the military so as to provide analyses with sufficient analytic strength. This rigour, it turns out, can often be found in the interdisciplinary STS (science, technology and society) literature that, until today however, does not often seem to address risk and safety of large-scale socio-technological systems directly, and which seems to pay even less attention to risk and safety in the military.