A scenario-based approach to airport security

Mobility, particularly air transport, is vital to the economic stability and growth of a nation. It symbolizes national self-confidence and self-conception. As a result commercial aviation remains a preferred target for attacks by terrorists and other offenders. Security measures intended to render these threats harmless have mostly been introduced in response to specific occurrences, thus allowing the potential attackers to always remain one step ahead. As this approach seems inappropriate for dealing with future security threats, this paper provides a proactive approach to identification of future threats and their coverage by airport security processes and technologies. To meet the requirements of a highly complex and at the same time critical system, such as airport security, a standard scenario process has been enhanced by matrix-based methods of complexity management. This approach allows analysis of threat scenario clusters with respect to the number of potentially effective security measures. The method developed allows proactive detection of weak points in the security architecture and thus reveals potential for improvement.     

Terrorism and Critical Infrastructures: Implications for Public–Private Crisis Management

The spate of terrorist attacks in New York, London and Madrid has raised some significant issues for the public management of critical infrastructures. In many countries, privatizations in the 1980s and 1990s have transferred key elements of the critical infrastructure to private companies. Because these infrastructures are of major significance to our societies and economies, they must be protected against prolonged periods of breakdown. The ‘new’ terrorism has the potential to do just that. The management of this new threat is a complex task, which invariably will be undertaken by both public and private actors. They must deal with the core challenges of the prevention of attacks, effective communication of information across organizational boundaries and the ‘ownership’ of crisis decision-making. This article considers these issues within the context of the broader research areas of public management and crisis management.     

Terrorist attacks and corporate investment: The beneficial value of CEO overconfidence

This study examines whether terrorist attacks influence corporate investments and firm value. We expect that overconfident CEOs can mitigate the underinvestment problem caused by terrorist attacks because they overestimate the returns on investment. Using measures of terrorist attack proximity in the U.S., we find that firms with non-overconfident CEOs significantly decrease their investment growth when terrorist attacks affect them, while firms with overconfident CEOs do not. Consequently, the impact of terrorist attacks on firm value varies between firms with overconfident and non-overconfident CEOs. Overall, this study suggests that CEO overconfidence can benefit shareholder value under certain conditions, such as terrorist attacks.     

Framing the UK’s counter-terrorism policy within the context of a wicked problem

Terrorist attacks can be seen as the ultimate wicked problem. After 9/11, terrorists moved from so-called ‘spectacular’ events to relatively low-intensity attacks against individuals and groups. The emergence of what has become known as the ‘home-grown’ terrorist has added a further dimension to the ‘wicked’ nature of the problem. This paper considers the UK’s CONTEST and PREVENT strategies as a policy response to the threats from terrorism and the impact that the policies themselves can have on the radicalization of individuals. The author highlights some of the limitations of the PREVENT strand of the overall strategy and the constraints that are imposed on government policies by failing to take a holistic perspective on the nature of the problem.     

An ill wind? Terrorist attacks and CEO compensation

Using multiple measures of attack proximity, we show that CEOs employed at firms located near terrorist attacks earn an average pay increase of 12% after the attack relative to CEOs at firms located far from attacks. CEOs at terrorist attack-proximate firms prefer cash-based compensation increases (e.g., salary and bonus) over equity-based compensation (e.g., options and stocks granted). The effect is causal and it is larger when the bargaining power of the CEO is high. Other executives and workers do not receive a terrorist attack premium.     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.     

The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks

This paper conducts a systematic investigation of the incidence and economic costs of terrorist attacks at the country level. We use newly assembled datasets on terrorist attacks, natural disasters and currency crises to answer three different questions: what are the determinants of terrorism; is there an output cost following a terrorist attack; and is that cost larger or smaller in the case of democracies. We find that rich countries are the most prone to suffer attacks while democracies are, if anything, less vulnerable than other countries. The cost to output of a terrorist attack is quantitatively small and closely associated with the occurrence of an event rather than the number of casualties. Finally, we find robust evidence that a terrorist attack imposes a lower output cost the more democratic a country is.     

Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks

The objective of this study is to analyse volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the financial market responses to the September 11, March 11 and July 7 terrorist attacks. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the turmoil periods themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the financial market responses to the terrorist attacks. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impacts that terrorist attacks had on both markets.     

基于国家安全视角的我国反洗钱工作研究

反洗钱与国家安全特别是非传统安全有着密切的联系。从国际上看,2001年美国"9·11"恐怖事件后,西方发达国家不断调整国家反洗钱战略,将反洗钱提高到维护国家经济安全和国际政治稳定的战略高度。从国内看,我国国家安全和社会安定面临的威胁和挑战增多,特别是各种威胁和挑战联动效应明显,面对新形势、新任务,我们要强化底线思维,以维护国家安全为核心,准确定位反洗钱工作,借助国际反恐融资体系,打击恐怖势力,加强对反洗钱国际规则和实务的研究,防范洗钱和恐怖融资风险,维护我国国家安全。     

Terrorism,country attributes,and the volatility of stock returns

This study investigates the interplay between terrorism and finance, focusing on the stock return volatility of American firms targeted by terrorist attacks. We find terrorism risk is an important factor in explaining the volatility of stock returns, which should be taken into account when modelling volatility. Using a volatility event-study approach and a new bootstrapping technique, we find volatility increases on the day of the attack and remain significant for at least fifteen days following the day of the attack. Cross-sectional analysis of the abnormal volatility indicates that the impact of terrorist attacks differs according to the country characteristics in which the incident occurred. We find that firms operating in wealthier, or more democratic countries, face greater volatility in stock returns relative to firms operating in developing countries. Firm exposure varies with the nature of country location, with country wealth and level of democracy playing an important role in explaining the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Our results show that despite significant terrorist events this past decade, stock markets in developed countries have not taken terrorist risk into sufficient consideration.     

Public Panic and Morale: Second World War Civilian Responses Re‐examined in the Light of the Current Anti‐terrorist Campaign

Following September 11 in the US and July 7 in the UK, the threat to civilians from terrorist attack has become real yet considerable disagreement exists about how people might respond. The effect of aerial bombing on the public's morale during the Second World War and the incidence of psychiatric casualties have been explored to provide reference points for the current terrorist threat. Systematic study of restricted government investigations and intelligence reports into the effect of air‐raids on major British towns and contemporary medical publications have shown that panic was a rare phenomenon and arose in defined circumstances. Morale fluctuated according to the intensity of attacks, preparedness and popular perceptions of how successfully the war was being conducted. Resilience was in part a function of the active involvement of the public in its own defence but also reflected the inability of German bombers to deliver a concentrated attack over a wide area. Most civilians, by their very numbers, were likely to survive. Inappropriate or excessive precautionary measures may serve to weaken society's natural bonds and, in turn, create anxious and avoidant behaviour. Weapons that tap into contemporary health fears have the greatest psychological impact. Efforts by government to engage the public not only build trust but may also make an effective contribution to the campaign against terrorism.     

A Review of Catastrophic Risks for Life Insurers

Catastrophic mortality events are characterized by a sudden and concentrated increase in mortality and as such present a major risk to life insurers. Such events include pandemics, war, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial, transport, and other accidents. Of these, pandemics arising from influenza are considered the most significant threat to the life insurance industry due to their capacity to cause a major increase in claims. We review the features and mortality implications of an influenza pandemic for life insurers, and describe a range of other risks that are likely to emerge as well.     

Terrorist attacks and oil prices: Hypothesis and empirical evidence

Using a unique dataset that merges terrorism activity with oil prices, this paper develops and tests the hypothesis that terrorist attacks predict oil prices. We develop three insights. First, we show that terrorist attacks have a positive effect on oil prices, but it is attacks originating from oil producer countries that most influence oil prices. Second, we devise trading strategies based on terrorist attacks and show that attacks, by signaling buying and selling in the market, beat a buy-and-hold strategy. We also show that a mean–variance investor who utilizes our terrorism-based forecasting model makes economically meaningful profits. Our analysis also shows that the effect of terrorism on oil prices operates via both the oil production and oil investment channels.     

Terrorism and Stock Market Sentiment

This paper examines the effects of terrorism on stock market sentiment by focusing on the behavior of expected probability density functions of the FTSE 100 index around terrorist attacks. We find that terrorism has a strong adverse impact on stock market sentiment. In particular, terrorist attacks are found to cause a pronounced downward shift in the expected value of the FTSE 100 index and a significant increase in stock market uncertainty. Furthermore, our results show that the expected FTSE 100 probability densities became significantly more negatively skewed and fat‐tailed in the immediate aftermath of terrorist acts.     

Not all threats are taken equally: Evidence from proxy fights

Previous research shows that activist threats lead to corporate policy concessions. We find that the threat of proxy fights is responded to differently based on its credibility. Decomposing proxy fight threats, we find that only credible threats are associated with more leveraged, more innovative, and less acquisitive corporate policies. Management, however, does not respond to noncredible threats. Further, for materialized fights, the market reaction at announcement is also conditional on the credibility of the threats. Overall, not all activist threats are responded to equally by management or the market, and only credible threats achieve disciplinary effects and favorable valuation.     

Terrorist attacks and company financial numbers: Evidence on earnings management and value relevance from Madrid, London and Istanbul

This study focuses on three major terrorist attacks that took place in Madrid on 11 March 2004, in London on 7 July 2005, and in Istanbul on 27 July 2008. It examines firms that belong to banking, insurance and leisure sectors and assesses the earnings management potential and the value relevance of reported financial numbers before and after the terrorist attack. The study shows that, in general, a terrorist attack is likely to increase the scope for earnings management and reduce the value relevance of reported financial numbers. The terrorist attacks in Madrid and Istanbul have led to higher earnings management potential and less value relevant financial numbers. In contrast, the UK terrorist attack has not increased the potential for earnings management, while the value relevance of reported financial numbers has increased. The findings indicate that the insurance industry and the leisure industry are more inclined to use earnings management after the attacks. Comparing the common-law and code-law countries after the attack, the study shows that the UK displays lower discretionary accruals and higher value relevance of reported financial numbers. It is noteworthy that, after the attacks, the UK exhibits higher profitability, leverage and liquidity compared to Spain and Turkey.     

The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on International Stock Markets

We examine the effects of terrorist attacks on stock markets, using a dataset that covers all significant events and that directly relate to the major economies of the world. Our event study suggests that terrorist attacks produce mildly negative price effects. We compare these price reactions to those from an alternative type of unanticipated disaster, earthquakes, and find that price declines following terror attacks are more pronounced. However, in both cases prices rebound within the first week of the aftermath. We also compare price responses internationally and for separate industries, and find that reactions are strongest for local markets and for industries that are directly affected by the attack. Our results suggest that financial markets react strongly to terror events but then recover swiftly and soon return to business as usual. The September 11th attacks turn out to be the only event that caused long‐term effects on financial markets, especially in terms of industries' systematic risk.     

How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets

Terrorist attacks that have succeeded abroad since 2001, as well as others that were prevented, indicate that the threat of a large‐scale attack is real and will be with us for a long time. Focusing on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this article analyzes the role that insurance can play in providing commercial enterprises with financial protection against the economic consequences of major terrorist attacks. The article begins by explaining the design and key features of terrorism insurance programs operating today in each of the three countries (TRIA in the U.S., Pool Re in the U.K., and Extremus in Germany). The authors then provide a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of prices and take‐up rates (based on as yet unpublished data), with particular attention to financial institutions. For those who think the U.S. is the most likely target for mega‐terrorism, the findings are somewhat puzzling. On average, for example, companies in the U.S. do not pay even half as much for comparable coverage under TRIA as companies pay in Germany under Extremus, which raises the questions: Is terrorism coverage under the U.S. insurance program now drastically underpriced? If so, what would be the likely consequences of another large‐scale attack in the U.S.? On the demand side, the authors observe a dramatic increase in take‐up rates in the U.S. since 2003, revealing increased corporate concern. By contrast, the market penetration in Germany remains remarkably low. A better understanding of these programs and of the recent evolution of terrorism insurance markets in the U.S. and Europe should help corporate and government decision makers develop more effective protection against the economic consequences of mega‐terrorism.     

Risk regulation,community pressure and the use of management accounting in managing climate change risk: Australian evidence

This exploratory study is amongst the first to investigate how companies perceive the regulation of carbon emissions and the pressure exerted by the community in an environment characterised by risk and uncertainty. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among 39 executives who were directly involved in carbon emissions management in 18 large listed Australian companies. Consistent with Prospect Theory, we find that decision-makers are threat biased and are more likely to take immediate actions when climate change issues are framed as threats as opposed to opportunities. From the interview data, it is seen that managers use management accounting techniques as a risk management tool in mitigating risks associated climate change issues. Furthermore, this use of management accounting appears to be driven primarily by the protection of economic interests, regulatory pressure and reputational pressure. The study provides insights into how perceptions of climate change uncertainties and external pressure for disclosure of emissions information influence companies to use management accounting in managing climate change risk.